Round The World

New Delhi, 28 June 2011

India-Pakistan Talks

SAME OLD CBMs  STORY

By Monish Tourangbam,

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The India-Pakistan Foreign Secretary level talks held recently in Islamabad give credence to the view that New Delhi needs to better manage its backyard. Peace and stability will not be presented on a platter and that the foreign policy team must take issues head-on. As expected no breakthrough was made. However, the thrust on confidence building measures (CBMs) did send the message that New Delhi is all supportive for peace and prosperity in the region, so long as its own is not threatened.

No doubt India has made drastic strides in the global arena in the past two decades. Since liberalization in the early 90s, it has eventually earned the title of being one of the fastest growing economies and a major global market. It is one of the few countries which successfully weathered the global financial crisis and is today an active member of the influential G20. Since, its entry into the nuclear club in 1998 and its eventual waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), it has also emerged as a major hub of international nuclear commerce.

Despite all this, one cannot deny that India still has a troublesome neighborhood. The Mumbai attacks devastated Indians from all walks of life and since then, India-Pakistan relations are slowly taking baby steps towards some sense of positivity. Pakistan is in the throes of a heightened sense of insecurity after having suffered a string of attacks from home-grown terrorists, and tensions have increased in its relations with the US post the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Moreover, suspicious linkages between Pakistan’s spy agency ISI and terrorist elements have hogged the limelight.

In addition, with the western powers preparing to start decreasing their force strength, Pakistan’s role in the future of Afghanistan is something that needs close attention. In the backdrop of all these concerns, the recent India-Pakistan dialogue is a welcome step, towards engaging the country that has concerned India for most of its independent history. Notably, the recent Secretary-level talks came up after the much hyped cricket diplomacy, where Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani jointly watched the India-Pakistan semi-final match at Mohali.

Likewise, post the Fukushima nuclear calamity in Japan, there has been an overall anxiety over nuclear safety. In the case of Pakistan, questions over the safety of its nuclear arsenal have often been raised given the state of insecurity and impunity with which extremists often attack State entities, including a naval station in Karachi recently.

Importantly, both sides have noted the ongoing implementation of various Nuclear and Conventional CBMs., and decided to convene separate expert-level meetings to discuss implementation, strengthening of existing arrangements and other measures, which are mutually acceptable, to build trust, confidence and promote peace and security. The dates for these meetings will be determined through diplomatic channels, as per the joint statement.

As expected, both sides played safe when it came to the issues of terrorism and Kashmir, as any heated exchanges on these contentious issues would have deadlocked the entire process. However, during the dialogue, New Delhi did manage to pass the message that it expected some deliverables from Islamabad when it came to reducing the menace of terrorism against India.  Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao stated: “The ideology of military conflict should have no place in the paradigm of our relationship of the 21st century. Instead, this relationship should be characterized by the vocabulary of peace, all round co-operation in the interest of our people, growing trade and economic interaction, as well as, people to people contacts - and all this, let me emphasize, in an atmosphere free of terror and violence.” 

Accordingly, Indian concerns regarding the links between the ISI and terror groups such as  Lashkar-e-Taiba were reiterated (pursuant to the disclosures made by David Headley in the Tahawwur Rana trial), and New Delhi assured Islamabad that it would hand over information on the Samjhauta terror probe after thorough investigations. The Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir is reported to have responded: “While we understand India's concerns on terror, this issue of terror requires collaborative approach.”

Insofar as the issue of J&K is concerned, the two sides “agreed to continue discussions in a purposeful and forward-looking manner with the view to finding a peaceful solution by narrowing divergences and building convergence.” It was agreed to convene a meeting of the Working Group on Cross-LoC CBMs to recommend measures for strengthening and streamlining the existing trade and travel arrangements across the LoC and propose modalities for introducing additional Cross-LoC CBMs.

In a welcome development, liberalized visa norms are under serious consideration. Moreover, both the countries are likely to work on an agreement to prevent incidents at sea. Apparently, a draft is already in place. This follows the 'brush' between INS Godavari and PNS Babur - two ships involved in rescuing MV Suez. Recall that External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna had thanked the Pakistani Navy for its timely assistance in rescuing Indian sailors in captivity of Somali pirates aboard the MV Suez.

On an equally important front, nagging defence ties between the two countries were taken note of.  It is well-known that the military holds a place of immense importance in Pakistani polity and society. This can be gauged from the number of military coups that Islamabad has experienced and the military generals who have held the reins of power. Even under a civilian government, it is the military which appears to yield real power.

However, if top sources are to be believed, a significant CBM is coming to fruition between the two armies. Certain proposals have been made to start new CBMs—meetings between India's National Defence College (NDC) and Pakistan's National Defence University, joint seminars and conferences between defence think-tanks, even talks between the two Coast Guards.

Another major issue which needs serious attention is that Islamabad has always sought to offset its power asymmetry vis-à-vis India by taking assistance of external powers. And certain sections of its establishment have largely resorted to supporting cross-border terrorism in this pursuit. Notably, countries such as China have taken advantage of the India-Pakistani rivalry, assisting the latter in various ways to scuttle India’s growth as a major power.

Clearly, Beijing intends to restrict India’s influence in the South Asian region, and benefit from keeping tension alive in India’s neighborhood. This was quite evident when Secretary Rao, on the eve of her Islamabad visit reportedly commented that Islamabad’s efforts in bringing “other factors” into the dialogue would not help address the issue of normalizing relations between the two countries. On specifically being asked about Pakistan seeking to involve China in its bilateral talks with India on issues such as demilitarisation of the Siachen glacier, she declared:  “It is India and Pakistan that are dealing with each other to discuss problems that complicate our relationship. I think to bring in other factors into this dialogue is not really going to address the issue of normalizing relations that we wantD.”

Well said. But even though New Delhi may describe the talks as “productive and positive” at the end, the moot question to be addressed is: When will there be a dramatic breakthrough? The next round the talks in New Delhi is unlikely to throw up an answer.--INFA 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)