Round The World

New Delhi, 21 June 2011

India And SCO

ASIA’S NEW POWER GAME

Monish Tourangbam,

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The “decline of America’s pre-dominance” has kept scholars and analysts busy for quite a while. Indeed, the US, by all measures, is still the most powerful country in the world and will remain so for some time to come. But, the rise of other emerging major powers like China and India cannot be ignored.

Importantly, the power shifts and the relative increase in the influence and capabilities of these countries will lead to more independent decision-making. In this globalized era, even a super power like the US cannot do anything alone, evident in the messy Afghan conflict and the Iraq war.

Undoubtedly, multi-lateral cooperation and compromises are the way forward. In this context, the salience of the emerging economies in the international system and their independent regional calculations deserve more attention. Thus, regional groupings and organizations need to be looked at in a different light.

With the advent of regional groupings like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which is ambitious enough to look at encompassing the entire Eurasian landmass, India needs to calculate its foreign policy adroitly in order to put its feet in a firm place as far as regional security calculus is concerned.

Specially, against the backdrop of the global financial crisis putting a question mark on the stability of the American economy, while raising the influence of emerging economies, including India that weathered the mess reasonably well.

The six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) which recently held its 10th anniversary summit in Astana, Kazakhstan opened its doors for India’s membership. Recall, the group was formed in 2001 with the goal of fighting terrorism, ensuring peace and security and creating regional prosperity. During the recent summit, the member countries adopted the Memorandum of Obligation that spells out the conditions for new members.

As international politics enters a more multi-lateralist phase, organizations connecting sub-regions and regions at large will increasingly become more relevant as countries, have developed complex inter-dependence. Despite differences in various areas, efforts are made to cooperate wherever possible.

In this scenario, India needs to play its cards well at the SCO as it is poised to become full-time-member, where Pakistan is also a potential candidate. Though Russia is already present as a counter-vailing force, certain member countries would welcome India as a balancing force against any Chinese monopoly in the grouping.

India’s inclusion as a member would geographically link South with Central Asia. This is significant as Central Asia is an energy-rich region. Moreover, the SCO by dint of its geographical identity and the countries involved is slated to play a major role in the event of a drawdown of Western troops in Afghanistan.

According to sources, Afghanistan is also poised to gain an Observer Status that would give it greater access to deliberations at the SCO. Foreign Minister Krishna who represented India at the summit hoped that by becoming involved with the SCO, Afghanistan could become the geo-strategic bridge between Central and South Asia as well as a trade and transit hub.

Afghanistan’s future and the fallout it would have in the region should greatly concern Indian policy makers. New Delhi is highly concerned of what role the Pakistani military and its intelligence would have in Afghanistan where some Taliban sections are certain to play pivotal roles in future. The datelines given by Western forces for its withdrawal process have accentuated the debate on Afghanistan.

Undeniably, the state of security prevalent in what is termed the “AfPak” area would affect the entire region and Islamic militancy in different corners of the world. India has shown active interest in promoting the SCO’s Regional Anti-terrorism Centre (RATS) as an important mechanism for the region in combating terrorism. When India becomes a member, it would certainly use the forum to put pressure on Pakistan to come clean on its fight against terrorism. The Foreign Ministry has already given some trailers regarding this aspect.

But, given the presence of China (Pakistan’s all-weather friend) as a founding member of the group, one has to wait and watch. Given that some reports have indicated that China was not too enthusiastic about India joining the SCO citing organizational problems in admitting a large country like India.

Responding to this, Alexander Lukin, head of the East Asia and SCO Research Centre at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations said, “Overall, this is true..., the SCO will have to introduce a third language, English and also expand the Secretariat, the Regional Anti Terrorism Structure (RATS).”

However, “given India’s significant financial potential, all these problems can be resolved...India has been successfully developing its economy, and its unique economic model, which is oriented towards the domestic market and has shown its advantages during the latest global crisis, could supplement other attractive development models of the SCO member States.”

In the globalized world, economics is the mainstay of most of the organizations. If a regional grouping becomes an economic success, then the countries involved in the process would have a stake in sustaining it. Even rivalries and competition at the strategic level have not hindered countries from increasing economic linkages.

India has been quite categorical in emphasizing the trade opportunities an enlarged SCO could create in the region, to the benefit of all. New Delhi reportedly told the SCO countries that it wanted to reduce the unwieldy customs procedures and almost two months’ travel time of goods to-and-from Central Asia and was ready to cooperate with member countries to find viable solutions to this problem.

When India becomes a full-fledged member of the SCO, the trajectory of India-China relationship to a large extent will determine the atmosphere of the groups’ summits and meetings. Of course, New Delhi and Beijing are co-members in many other organizations besides this one, and by now both have developed some habits of team work and cooperation when it comes to multi-lateral issues.

But, when it concerns bilateral and territorial issues, the two often log horns. The presence of another major power in the group, Russia, might serve as a sobering effect as it shares fairly good relations with both countries. Recently, India and China also resumed their military contacts ending a suspension following the visa row.

Nonetheless, there are reports of a simmering diplomatic row over China's Zangmu Dam on the Brahmaputra River. According to intelligence reports, the dam will severely restrict water flow downstream, contradicting an earlier claim by Krishna that India need not be worried about the dam. 

Clearly, New Delhi needs to be pro-active when dealing with Beijing, a trait that Indian foreign policy-makers have yet to master.  ‘Caught napping’ is not a term that Indians would want to hear very often. As the countdown to India’s membership at the SCO begins, it should leave no stone unturned to enhance its bilateral relations with the Central Asian members of the group. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)