Round The World

New Delhi, 8 June 2011

US War on Terror

PAK’S UNCLEAR ROLE: WHAT NEXT?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The war on terror was given a major fillip with the killing of Al-Qaeda’s No.1 Osama Bin Laden and if reports are to be believed, another breakthrough has been achieved. Though US officials have yet to confirm it, reports have poured in from different sources that Ilyas Kashmiri largely suspected to be Al-Qaeda’s top operational commander was killed recently in a US drone attack in South Waziristan.

Known as a leader of the of the Harakat-ul-Jihad al-Islami (HuJI) Kashmiri reportedly headed the “313 brigade,” a unit of the Al-Qaeda linked Lashkar al-Zil or Shadow Army. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman Malik went public with the news of his death and asserted, “What I can say is there is a 98 per cent chance he is dead. Since we do not have the body, we do not have DNA we need to confirm. This is the substantive evidence we are looking for.”

Meanwhile, Kashmiri’s own group HuJI too gave a statement confirming the death of its commander. But, US officials continue to keep skepticism alive, with the State as well as the Defense Departments denying from confirming the death. Thus, contradicting Pakistan’s Prime Minister Gilani’s claim that Washington had confirmed the death.

Given the circumstances in which drone operations are conducted, it will be hard to discern as to why the Americans are still keeping the uncertainty alive. Probably, US officials do not want to be caught off-guard this time. Recall, Kashmiri was reported killed once before, but eventually resurfaced safe and sound.

Questionably, if Kashmiri was indeed killed in the drone attacks as is increasingly believed, then what does it imply for the war on terror, specifically in the sub-Continent. Top American media also reported that Pakistan had helped the US in locating Kashmiri, who was tipped to be the next “Osama Bin Laden”. The HuJI commander’s name is believed to have figured prominently on a list of terrorists that Washington handed over to Islamabad recently.

Besides, memories are still fresh about the Osama episode. Pakistan made hue and cry out of the American operation to kill Osama, saying that it was an infringement of sovereignty. Washington, on its part, expressed skepticism regarding Islamabad’s capability and loyalty towards the war on terror. But, the Pakistani Establishment seems to have no major problem with the CIA-directed drone attacks inside its soil. Is it not infringement of Pakistani sovereignty?

In fact, the Pakistani Government seems willing to accept and trumpet Kashmiri’s death more than the Americans. Moreover, other than his tag of an anti-India “jihadist”, Kashmiri was believed to be behind various attacks inside Pakistan as well, with many suspecting his masterminding the attacks on the Mehran Naval station in Karachi.

Consequently, Kashmiri had probably become a pain in the neck for the Pakistani Establishment. Other than making a mockery of Pakistan’s state of security, the attacks had much more to it than met the eye, according to slain Pakistani journalist Saleem Shahzad who had interviewed Kashmiri. Some reports suggest the possibility of the ISI’s hand in the killing of the journalist.

Though the attack on the naval station was largely publicized as a revenge for the killing of Osama, Shahzad, the Pakistan Bureau Chief of Asia Times Online had reported an underlying motive.  He had written that “Al-Qaeda carried out the brazen attack on PNS Mehran naval air station in Karachi on May 22 after talks failed between the navy and al-Qaeda over the release of naval officials arrested on suspicion of al-Qaeda links,” thus exposing the long speculated penetration of extremist influence within the Pakistani military and intelligence.

Probably Shahzad knew more than what he was supposed to, thus becoming a victim of the political and strategic mess in Pakistan. At the time of Shahzad’s disappearance, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said it had been informed through “reliable interlocutors” that Shahzad was being held by the ISI.

Further, Tahawwur Rana, the Pakistani-Canadian businessman facing trial in Chicago for his involvement in the Mumbai terror attacks has also pointed to the direct involvement of the ISI in providing arms to militants in Kashmir. Certainly, Pakistan’s role in the fight against terrorism is puzzling and major powers like the US and China are muddying this puzzle all the more, by cajoling Pakistan

Pakistan’s geo-strategic location and its frontline status in the war on terrorism have worked as an insurance policy in its relationship with the US. Ever since the Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was found and killed in Pakistan’s garrison town Abbotabad, questions are being raised on Islamabad’s reliability, with many American leaders arguing for cuts in aid to Pakistan.

However, as one reads the situation; Pakistan seems to feed on its own state of insecurity. Islamabad’s lack of control and its inability to police elements detrimental to its own interests is often used as an excuse to catch sympathy and aid from other countries.

When it comes to China, it does not need any more reason to side with Pakistan than the fact that the latter is India’s arch enemy. Prime Minister Gilani made a visit to Beijing post Osama’s death. China intends to restrict India to the South Asian region. And, there can be no better and a willing partner than Pakistan in this mission.

Following Osama’s killing, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also made a quick and unannounced visit to Islamabad along with the US Joint Chief of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. Among other statements that were meant to placate the high tension surrounding US-Pakistan relations, she said that the US had “absolutely no evidence that anyone at the highest level of the Pakistani Government” knew where Bin Laden was. Remember. US officials had previously argued that either Pakistan’s military intelligence was an accomplice or was too incompetent not to know of Osama’s presence.

Arguably, is one to believe that Pakistani intelligence is indeed so incompetent? Evidences, however, leads to the conclusion that the ISI is in fact highly effective when it comes to engineering heinous plans and sinister designs against Indian interests.

Undoubtedly, Kashmiri’s death, if confirmed, would be regarded as a major accomplishment coming so close on the heels of Osama’s death. Largely credited as the operational commander of the Al-Qaeda network, his absence would be a major blow in the practical sense to the Al Qaeda. And if indeed, Pakistan had assisted the US, the Pakistani Government can now trumpet this accomplishment after being humiliated and discredited during Osama’s killing.

Nevertheless, one cannot deny Pakistan’s double game when it comes to fighting terrorism, to the detriment of India’s interests. Kashmiri’s death should also be good news for New Delhi, as he was known to be viciously anti-India and hence many more targets would have been in his to-do list.

Importantly, Kashmiri is just a part of the messy game, at the roots of which lies certain sections of the Pakistani Establishment. Hence, while dealing with Pakistan, the US should play its carrot and stick policy but the sticks need to be more certain and the carrots more conditional! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)