Round The World

New Delhi, 24 May 2011

Gilani’s China Visit

ALARM BELLS FOR INDIA

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

In the wake of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Afghanistan visit, came another high-profile visit no less significant in its design and strategic implications. The Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani paid a visit to China. Significantly, this official trip demands all the more attention as it comes at a time when the US-Pakistan relationship is in the news for all the wrong reasons. Ever since the Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was found and killed in a Pakistani garrison town, questions have been raised on Islamabad’s reliability, with many American leaders arguing for cuts in aid to Pakistan.

Importantly, even the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has come under grave doubts given the present state of security situation there. To add to Pakistan’s dilemma, there have been violent terrorist attacks at locations otherwise deemed secure. Lately, the Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for storming the Mehran Naval Station in Karachi resulting in a siege of about 17 hours. Earlier, on May 13, a twin suicide bombing was reported to have killed at least 80 paramilitary recruits in the northwest town of Shabqadar. 

These attacks were claimed as retaliation for Osama’s death and have spurred heated debates on Pakistan’s ability to secure its civilians given the impunity with which the militants have attacked government installations. In such circumstances, Beijing’s reassurances of friendship and support to Islamabad would count all the more. Undoubtedly, Pakistan desires Chinese presence to increase in the South Asian region, to blunt India’s overwhelming power. As it is Beijing has already funded different ports around India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar which many analysts argue is a deliberate move to circle in on India.

Often, termed the ‘String of Pearls’ strategy, China’s increasing influence in the region should be of major concern to the Indian policymakers. Beijing’s continuing and unabated support for Pakistan’s nuclear programme despite international concern should be seriously debated, in India’s engagement with other major powers. Indeed, Gilani’s diplomatic sojourn has produced some significant deliverables for Pakistan.

Apparently, Beijing has agreed to expedite delivery of a second batch of 50 jointly developed JF-17 fighter jets to Pakistan, possibly within the next six months. In response to the fighter agreement, Union Defense Minister A.K. Antony is reported to have expressed serious concern about the growing China-Pakistan defence ties. Accordingly, he has asserted that India's only possible response was to build up its own military arsenal.

This apart, there have been official statements in Islamabad saying that China is favourable towards taking charge of the Gwadar port in Pakistan when Singapore’s PSA's “term of agreement” expired. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Ahmad Mukhtar said: “We are grateful to the Chinese government for constructing Gwadar Port. However, we will be more grateful to the Chinese government if a naval base is being constructed at the site of Gwadar for Pakistan.”  The port is being viewed by Indian policymakers and analysts as an attempt by the Chinese to increase its military pressure in India’s zone of influence.

Likewise, China and Pakistan also have discussed plans to build an oil pipeline from Gwadar to northwestern China, along with two new stretches of railway lines extending the Pakistani network to Gwadar at one end and to the Chinese border at the other. But, the prospects of using Gwadar as a trade hub and transit point will to a large extent depend on the state of security in Pakistan. If Islamabad continues to roll down the route of uncontrollable instability and fear to civilian lives, then it will be tough for the business-minded Chinese to put too many eggs into the Pakistani basket.

According to the joint statement issued during the visit, China believed “Pakistan’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity should be respected,” adding that China “recognised the tremendous efforts and the great sacrifice that Pakistan has made in fighting terrorism.” This assumes importance given the fact that in recent times, especially after Osama was found hiding right under the nose of the Pakistan military, its ally in the war on terror, the US, has pointed accusing fingers at Islamabad.  

Of interest in Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao assurance to Gilani at the start of a meeting in central Beijing's Great Hall of the People: “I wish to stress here that no matter what changes might take place in the international landscape, China and Pakistan will remain forever good neighbours, good friends, good partners and good brothers.”

But, there have been attempts from the Chinese side to tone down the strategic significance of the visit. Efforts were made to concentrate on the celebration of the 60^th year of the establishment of China-Pakistan ties. After an editorial in the official China Daily glorified Pakistan’s role and its significance in the war on terrorism, the same newspaper sought to tone down rhetoric and commented that the US-Pakistan ties need not be a victim of China-Pakistan convergence. “Any over-interpretation of Gilani's ongoing visit to China will prove to be superficial and speculative,” the Daily said. The newspaper also noted that Beijing was supportive of better ties between Pakistan and the U.S., saying the two countries “stable and growing bilateral relationship does not target any third party, but rather contributes to regional peace and stability…China hopes to see US-Pakistani relations improve as it is in the same boat with the two countries in fighting terrorism.” .   

Friendships directed towards a common enemy die hard and the fact that both China and Pakistan are nuclear powers should give more urgency to India’s strategic readiness. Beijing’s s support, both explicit and implicit, towards Islamabad must be closely followed. Despite the huge India-China trade ties, Beijing is concerned with India’s rise and it makes strategic sense to the Chinese to restrict India to the South Asian region; curtail India’s expanding voice and influence in the international system. And, there can be no better and a willing partner for China than Pakistan in this mission.

Importantly, during his visit, Gilani explicitly stated Pakistan’s desire to see China’s enlarged role in the international system, a major rebuff to the US. More so, as Pakistan’s ties with long-term aid supplier, the US is under serious strain. Accordingly, the Pakistani leader made ample use of this visit, to court China and send clear warning signals to the American establishment.  Said he: “We are happy to see China shape the 21st century world...We admire the accomplishments of the great Chinese nation.” 

Apparently, the rising Chinese power is Pakistan’s insurance policy, and an investment which it believes will be more sustainable and more enticing than the one with the US. In these unfolding circumstances, New Delhi can hardly sit on the fence and wait to react. India should intently create its own insurance policy by building linkages in Beijing’s zone of influence. China’s rise is definitely not seen as benign in nature, many countries are wary of its hegemonic interests, particularly in East Asia. In contrast, India’s rise does not threaten many nations. This should create some useful area of maneuverability for Indian decision-makers; sending a clear message that the “Indian curry” has as much appeal as the Chinese “noodles”. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)