Round The World

New Delhi, 18 May 2011

PM’s Afghan Visit

SECURING INDIA’S INTERESTS

 By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Undoubtedly, there is a big power game unfolding in Afghanistan and India needs to secure its interests there. Importantly, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent visit to Kabul came at a crucial time when the entire Afghan campaign is being reassessed in the wake of Osama Bin Laden’s death. Debates are being raised on the future of the Afghan conflict and the Indian leadership has not wasted any time in planning this early visit to Afghanistan post Osama.

Over the years, the Afghan campaign has become more complex and tackling the Taliban insurgency has turned more protracted than before. It is worth recalling that the war on terrorism started with the mission to find or kill Osama Bin Laden. So, the issue has come to a critical juncture.  Normally with the manhunt over, the campaign should have ended. But we note it is not that simple either.

Clearly the resurgence of the Taliban has over the years blunted the effectiveness of the Karzai government. The endemic corruption cutting across various levels of both the government and the society and the overflowing drug money are issues that will bedevil any nation-building effort. Thus, the end of Osama does not necessarily mean the end Afghanistan’s woes. In fact, the power game in this mountainous country is bound to become murkier and India as a regional power has a lot of stakes in any situation unfolding there.  

For one, it is clear that the US along with other allied countries is looking for a safe way out of the conflict. The Obama administration proposes to start the withdrawal process by July this year and the NATO forces including the US plan to end their combat mission by 2014 end, thus handing over responsibilities to the Afghan forces. Although, it is being agreed as a “ground-conditions” withdrawal, and not one based on a calendar, current events have given a new dimension to this debate.

The death of Osama Bin Laden has raised a huge debate regarding the rationale for the western forces continuing in Afghanistan. In addition, given the mood in the western countries regarding the Afghan conflict, the prevailing conditions are likely to provide a reason to seriously implement the withdrawal process. In that situation, where does India find itself?  The inevitability of Pakistan’s involvement in whatever form the Afghan situation shapes up is known to all.

There seems to be a widespread consensus pervading the Afghan government and all countries involved in the region that talking to the Taliban, is inevitable if some sort of stability is to be engineered. Pakistani links to various sections and levels of the Taliban insurgency unfortunately warrants its involvement in the shape of things to come. So, it is futile for the Indian government to try negating this fact.

The Karzai government considers Pakistan an unavoidable factor in the evolving roadmap for Afghanistan. So, for New Delhi, the question is not how India out maneuvers Pakistan, but how it Delhi acts amid the pivotal role Islamabad is going to play in Afghanistan. India seems to have moved towards recognizing the certainty of involving at least some sections of the Taliban in Afghanistan’s polity. Manmohan Singh told the Afghan parliament: “Afghanistan has embarked upon a process of national reconciliation… It is up to you, as the peoples’ representatives, to make decisions about your country’s future without outside interference or coercion… India will respect the choices you make and the decisions you take.” 

So, it is best to cultivate and strengthen ties with the Karzai government and emphasize that Afghanistan will need India’s expertise and assistance to sustain stability and peace in this war-torn country. Pakistan and India are at very different levels of development. The former is an aid-dependent country, battling a lot of self-created demons. Moreover, Washington-Islamabad relationship is in a tangled mess after Osama was found and killed in Pakistan.

On the other hand, India is one the largest economies in the world. Its importance in the community of nations has increased over the years. So, it would benefit New Delhi to use its charm offensive to secure a better foothold in Afghanistan. India has not only been one of the largest aid providers towards the reconstruction effort but has suffered major casualties in this pursuit. Importantly, Prime Minister Singh’s visit to Afghanistan hit all the right notes towards strengthening ties India has built up with the Karzai government, taking the relationship forward to the level of a “Strategic Partnership”.

According to sources, this Strategic Partnership will be implemented under the framework of a Partnership Council, to be headed by the Foreign Ministers of both the countries and will meet annually. Importantly, the joint statement affirmed that their Strategic Partnership was not directed against any other State or group of States. The emphasis was clearly on reiterating India’s resolve to continue its assistance towards the reconstruction of Afghanistan, and maintaining that Afghan issues should be settled according to the wishes of its people.

In his address to the afghan Parliament, Singh also took the opportunity to impress upon the country’s leadership that “renewing” age-old ties of “friendship, solidarity and fraternity” was the only agenda that the people of India had in Afghanistan. New Delhi’s decision to continue assistance towards capacity building and skill development was asserted. Moreover, India’s overall assistance to Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts was increased to around $2 billion, adding another $ 500 million to the total outlay in the coming few years.

Despite the ongoing diatribes between India and Pakistan, Singh rightly maintained a calm composure during his visit and gave indication of any efforts to score brownie points against any country. Terrorism was denounced in general and India made sure it did not use the occasion to point fingers at anyone. However, besides civilian assistance and the goodwill gesture towards the Afghan people, it is equally imperative to secure ties at the political level.

A ground-based, realistic assessment should be made of the power centres within Afghanistan including sections within the Taliban, likely to wield major influence in future politics of Kabul. It is important that Indian policymakers are well versed with the approaches of these groups towards New Delhi and are pro-active in making contacts with these groups, so that we are not caught napping in any eventuality.

Crucially, in the event of a withdrawal by western forces and a transfer of responsibility to the Afghan forces, it is imperative for New Delhi to be clear about the security of the India-aided civilian projects in the country. Therefore, clear-cut assurances should be obtained from the Afghan establishment towards this issue and India’s readiness to assist in improving Kabuls’ security apparatuses should be made known. However, the decision must be left to Karzai government. At another level, India should use its increasing cooperation and influence among the major powers of the world, most importantly the US, in making clear New Delhi’s interests and stakes towards the evolving situation in the region. All in all, India should be marketed as a benign power, a source of civilian assistance and guidance towards any country aspiring to develop as an effective democracy.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)