Round The World

New Delhi, 10 May, 2011

Post Osama’s Death

US-PAK TANGLED TIES

By Monish Tourangbam,

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Post the killing of dreaded Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in the garrison town of Abbottabad near Pakistan’s Capital Islamabad, right under the nose of its military academy, US-Pakistan bilateral ties stand at a critical juncture. Serious concerns are being raised in Washington and questions have been put on the sincerity of Islamabad’s assistance to the war on terrorism.

Importantly, Pakistan is a big-time receiver of American aid, by dint of being an important ally in the US counter-terrorism campaign in the region. As such, Osama being found and killed that too in Abbottabad, presumably without any knowledge of the Pakistani Establishment has started fierce 24x7 media speculations on the very future of the US-Pakistan alliance.

Is Pakistan so important for the US campaign in the region, that when the dust settles down, everything will go on as business-as-usual? Or, is it different this time? Will the fallout in the coming days and weeks lead to some major transformations in how US functions in the region?

Undoubtedly, there would be probably much going on between the US Government and the Pakistani side than what outsiders and the ring-side reporters and analysts are being fed. Definitely, in recent times, American drone attacks and the CIA’s activities inside Pakistani territory have caused a lot of unease in this fragile relationship, but Osama’s death is not an everyday affair.

The circumstances in which he was killed, more so the location, has caught the Pakistani military and intelligence napping and the firestorm is not going to fizzle out easily. The fact that Pakistani intelligence and forces were not made a part of the whole operation reflects the lack of trust within the US Government, and this majorly rattled the Pakistani Establishment and hurt their ego.

Moreover, public as well as official condemnation for the US Government have increased in Pakistan,  where one sees one of the highest rates of anti-Americanism notwithstanding all the aid that have flown in from Washington. This indeed reflects on the fact that Pakistan’s Establishment and the endemic corruption therein absorbs aid money like a sponge without any tangible result on the relationship, emphasizing that there are limits to aid money being fungible.

The raising storm in the streets of Pakistan and its Parliament is not over how Osama was found in a major Pakistani town, near the Capital and close to the military academy, but it is over how American forces carried out the operation to kill Osama in Abbottabad without the knowledge of the Pakistani Establishment.

A case of infringement of sovereignty is the alarm sounding all around; and Pakistani authorities have used this to the hilt to over-shadow questions raised on the sincerity and competency of its military and intelligence.

American officials have argued that either Pakistan’s military intelligence was an accomplice or was too incompetent to know Osama’s presence right under their nose. Islamabad has adamantly decried such an argument; rather pointing fingers towards a failure of “all intelligence agencies of the world”, clearly a lame excuse to cover up a major international embarrassment for its Establishment. According to sources, Prime Minister Gilani refuted “accusations” of “incompetence and complicity”, calling it “absurd”.

India has long accused Pakistan’s military intelligence of plotting and supporting anti-India terrorism and the fallout of Bin Laden’s death might provide some leeway to policy-makers in New Delhi to emphasize this case. More so, with Washington with which New Delhi shares growing convergences, but finds its maneouverability limited in Pakistan-related issues, thanks to  the uneven yet inevitable US-Pakistan alliance vis-à-vis the US campaign against terrorism.

Reports confirm that even after US intelligence provided information to Pakistani authorities that one of the accused in the Mumbai 26/11 attacks was using cell phone from the prison, nothing was done. One hopes that this time, things get more serious than mere rounds and rounds of blame games from both the sides.

Clearly, it would be a real pity if even after such a significant turn in the relationship where Pakistan’s double game has been clearly exposed, everything gets back to normal. America’s lack of trust, backed by evidences, should be taken to the next level where hard questions should be put to various sections of the Pakistani Establishment to come clean and clear.

The idea is not to box in Pakistan in to a corner, allowing more excuses for further radicalization and more cries of anti-Americanism on Pakistani streets. The point is to use the present circumstances and evidences to pin down some of the elements in the Pakistani Establishment, like the powerful military intelligence ISI, and drastically reduce its radical and destructive activities in the region.

Moreover, opinions in the US Congress have been quite volatile, with many members arguing for the need to seriously look into the whole aid-driven relationship with Pakistan. In fact, Washington and Islamabad in many ways have largely had a supply-and-demand relationship, where Pakistan’s geo-strategic location has been squeezed continuously by its Establishment, specially its military which is hands-down the most important institution in Pakistan’s political structure.

It is common knowledge in the international community that any civilian Government in Pakistan has always been at the mercy of the military Generals and that certain sections of its Establishment have been responsible for planting instability in the South Asian region.

But, Pakistan’s strategic advantage as a frontline State, either for the US campaign against communism or its global war on terrorism always prevented any hard-fisted attitude against Islamabad, leading to half-hearted measures against Pakistan’s double standards.

Despite the imminent pressure that will come Pakistan’s way as an aftermath of bin Laden’s death, the US Government also fears that the tense situation might escalate to such an extent where it could rupture its alliance with Pakistan beyond repairs. Particularly, as Pakistan is a major ally in the US war against terror and as such, US Government officials while demanding for greater transparency does not want a major escalation of the situation and are on to a mode of damage limitations. 

Interestingly, White House spokesman, Jay Carney reportedly said, “We believe that it is very important to maintain the cooperative relationship with Pakistan precisely because it’s in our national security interest to do so.” According to sources, the C.I.A. Director Leon Panetta, will meet soon with his counterpart, head of Pakistan’s ISI Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha as a means to clear concerns, to prevent an unmanageable fracture in the relationship and to pave the way forward in the war on terrorism.

But as in life, no relationship is indispensable in international relations, and just because Pakistan is an important partner in the fight against terrorism (a premise that Pakistan has never really proved clearly), it would be wrong on the part of Washington to overlook yet another watershed moment to critically reassess  the relationship and bring some monumental changes that will be in America’s interest, Pakistan’s interest and in the interest of the region and the international community as a whole. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)