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Osama Bin Laden’s Death: WAR ON TERROR: WHAT NEXT?, by Monish Tourangbam, 3 May, 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 3 May 2011

Osama Bin Laden’s Death

 WAR ON TERROR: WHAT NEXT?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The US has finally hunted down their enemy No.1, Saudi tycoon-cum-dreaded terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden aka the most wanted man in the world responsible for the 9/11 attacks. Probably the longest man-hunt in human history ended with an American operation at the garrison town of Abbottabad, about 50 kms North-East of Pakistan’s Capital Islamabad.

Needless to say, Osama was the primary reason behind the War on Terror in Afghanistan that will now out-live his death. In fact, the War on Terror and the Af-Pak strategy is much more complex at present and it is no longer about one Osama.

 Consequently, despite the debate that certainly arises as to how Osama’s death would affect America’s withdrawal strategy from Af-Pak, US operations in the region at this juncture can hardly be decided on the basis of his death. Indeed, there might be increasing pressure on allied countries to re-assess the war in Afghanistan as all nations involved have experienced war-fatigue and are looking for a safe way out.

But, it is also true that the war in the Af-Pak region has morphed into a bloodier, messy and enduring campaign and the Taliban insurgency and the many splinter groups that Islamic fundamentalism has spawned will hardly be affected with the death of one Osama Bin Laden.

Significantly, the coming days and weeks will be a critical time to see how the Obama Administration, triumphant and energized because of this successful campaign capitalizes on the gains. For one, the Al Qaeda will definitely be in an unsettled mood suffering a leadership void because not many terrorist leaders could be as charismatic as Osama, who had a reputation of unifying ability and carried with him the aura of an iconic leader, a millionaire and a former Mujahedeen who stood with his brethren for the cause of Islam.

Even while he was on the run from the US forces, and maintained an under-ground life, the very knowledge that he was out there somewhere still plotting against the western countries would have been a big morale booster for other like-minded groups and “jihadis”. Indeed, his death will be a big blow to the hearts and minds of Al Qaeda members and their affiliate groups. His second in command, Ayman Zawahiri, for all his capabilities, does not seem to have the same kind of charisma and uniting power.

Thus, definitely some points could be scored at this moment of crisis within the central Al Qaeda. But, again the Al Qaeda itself has become highly de-centralized over the years leading to a lot of splinter groups in different parts of the world, sharing the same kind of ideology and often employing the same kind of terror tactics but without much of a central control.

Moreover, one-man terror plots are equally possible these days, with the kind of reach and connectivity that terrorist operations have shown, using information technology and other inventions of the modern world for their sinister purposes.

As such, the coming days are not going be easy. Hence, the end of Osama is a watershed moment, a tremendous psychological blow to terror organizations, a show of resolve that the effort to catch or kill the mass murderer had not slackened over the years.

But, this is definitely not the end of Al Qaeda, nor any real comfort to the kind of campaign that US forces and other countries would face in their fight against terrorism, especially in the epicenter of international terrorism: the Af-Pak region.

 The Taliban insurgency and the various splinter groups will hardly be affected by Osama’s death. The corruption in the Afghan Government and society, the internal ethnic divisions and the drug money that fuels a large part of the insurgency has hardly anything to do with the end of Osama. Dreaded groups like the Haqqanis or groups in Pakistan like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Laskar-e-Taiba will hardly tone down their violence because Osama is gone. 

According to Seth Jones of RAND Corporation, a major US think-tank, Bin Laden's death does not resolve the big-ticket issues between Washington and Islamabad, namely Pakistan's support for the Taliban and other insurgent groups battling U.S. forces in Afghanistan, like the Haqqani network.

“As long as many of those issues continue to exist, and they have very different interests, and very different strategic goals in the area, then some level of conflict will likely persist,” Jones added.

In fact, it is being feared that terrorist attacks could actually rise in the coming days and weeks as a sort of reprisal and revenge against Osama Bin Laden’s killing. There could be deliberate effort to show that the Al Qaeda was still very much in action. This could be done through quick-time small-scale terrorist attacks.

The US Department of Homeland Security reportedly said, “The Intelligence Community (IC) assesses the death of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden could result in retaliatory attacks in the Homeland and against US and Western interests overseas.”

The death of Osama and the circumstances in which he was found has raised a major debate around the role of Pakistan in the War on Terror. The fact that Osama was traced to a mansion at Abbottabad, very close to the Pakistani Capital, and right under the nose of the Pakistani Military Academy has raised a lot of questions on the Pakistani military intelligence and the Government.

 

Undoubtedly, for quite some time, the top brass of the Pakistani leadership have been denying that Osama was in Pakistan. The present situation puts them in tight rope exposing either the connivance of the Pakistani Establishment or the incompetence of their intelligence.

 

According to Hasan Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore, “If Bin Laden’s presence was not known to Pakistan’s security agencies when he was located close to important military installation, it will be viewed as their incompetence or over-confidence. If they knew about his presence but did not take action, this will raise questions about the agenda of Pakistan’s security agencies for fighting terrorism,” he added. 

 

Importantly, Indian officials also have taken serious note of the scenario, and re-emphasize their long held view that Pakistan continued to provide safe havens to terrorists, thus under-mining the fight against terrorism. “The world must not let down its united effort to overcome terrorism and eliminate the safe havens and sanctuaries that have been provided to terrorists in our own neighbourhood,’’ observed India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna.

 

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is an important ally in the US War on Terror in the Af-Pak region but it cannot be denied that Islamabad has not been committed to the purpose and has played a double-game. In the process, sincerely acting against only those terror groups that threaten the Pakistani State, and over-looking and even colluding in the case of groups that target India.

 

Hence, in the coming days, the location of the operation to kill Osama, Abbottabad might assume more importance opening rounds and rounds of debate regarding the nature of Pakistan’s assistance in the War on Terror and testing various nuances of the US-Pakistan alliance against terrorism. ----- INFA

 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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