Round The World
New Delhi, 3 May 2011
Osama Bin Laden’s Death
WAR ON TERROR: WHAT
NEXT?
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)
The US has finally hunted down their
enemy No.1, Saudi tycoon-cum-dreaded terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden aka the
most wanted man in the world responsible for the 9/11 attacks. Probably the
longest man-hunt in human history ended with an American operation at the
garrison town of Abbottabad, about 50 kms
North-East of Pakistan’s
Capital Islamabad.
Needless to say, Osama was the
primary reason behind the War on Terror in Afghanistan that will now out-live
his death. In fact, the War on Terror and the Af-Pak strategy is much more
complex at present and it is no longer about one Osama.
Consequently, despite the debate that
certainly arises as to how Osama’s death would affect America’s withdrawal strategy from Af-Pak, US
operations in the region at this juncture can hardly be decided on the basis of
his death. Indeed, there might be increasing pressure on allied countries to
re-assess the war in Afghanistan
as all nations involved have experienced war-fatigue and are looking for a safe
way out.
But, it is also true that the war in
the Af-Pak region has morphed into a bloodier, messy and enduring campaign and
the Taliban insurgency and the many splinter groups that Islamic fundamentalism
has spawned will hardly be affected with the death of one Osama Bin Laden.
Significantly, the coming days and
weeks will be a critical time to see how the Obama Administration, triumphant
and energized because of this successful campaign capitalizes on the gains. For
one, the Al Qaeda will definitely be
in an unsettled mood suffering a leadership void because not many terrorist
leaders could be as charismatic as Osama, who had a reputation of unifying
ability and carried with him the aura of an iconic leader, a millionaire and a
former Mujahedeen who stood with his
brethren for the cause of Islam.
Even while he was on the run from
the US
forces, and maintained an under-ground life, the very knowledge that he was out
there somewhere still plotting against the western countries would have been a
big morale booster for other like-minded groups and “jihadis”. Indeed, his death will be a big blow to the hearts and
minds of Al Qaeda members and their
affiliate groups. His second in command, Ayman Zawahiri, for all his
capabilities, does not seem to have the same kind of charisma and uniting
power.
Thus, definitely some points could
be scored at this moment of crisis within the central Al Qaeda. But, again the Al
Qaeda itself has become highly de-centralized over the years leading to a
lot of splinter groups in different parts of the world, sharing the same kind
of ideology and often employing the same kind of terror tactics but without
much of a central control.
Moreover, one-man terror plots are
equally possible these days, with the kind of reach and connectivity that
terrorist operations have shown, using information technology and other
inventions of the modern world for their sinister purposes.
As such, the coming days are not
going be easy. Hence, the end of Osama is a watershed moment, a tremendous
psychological blow to terror organizations, a show of resolve that the effort
to catch or kill the mass murderer had not slackened over the years.
But, this is definitely not the end
of Al Qaeda, nor any real comfort to
the kind of campaign that US forces and other countries would face in their
fight against terrorism, especially in the epicenter of international terrorism:
the Af-Pak region.
The Taliban insurgency and the various
splinter groups will hardly be affected by Osama’s death. The corruption in the
Afghan Government and society, the internal ethnic divisions and the drug money
that fuels a large part of the insurgency has hardly anything to do with the
end of Osama. Dreaded groups like the Haqqanis
or groups in Pakistan like
the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Laskar-e-Taiba will hardly tone down their violence
because Osama is gone.
According to Seth Jones of
RAND Corporation, a major US
think-tank, Bin Laden's death does not resolve the big-ticket issues between Washington and Islamabad,
namely Pakistan's support
for the Taliban and other insurgent
groups battling U.S. forces
in Afghanistan,
like the Haqqani network.
“As long as many of
those issues continue to exist, and they have very different interests, and
very different strategic goals in the area, then some level of conflict will
likely persist,” Jones added.
In fact, it is being feared that
terrorist attacks could actually rise in the coming days and weeks as a sort of
reprisal and revenge against Osama Bin Laden’s killing. There could be
deliberate effort to show that the Al
Qaeda was still very much in action. This could be done through quick-time
small-scale terrorist attacks.
The US Department of Homeland
Security reportedly said, “The Intelligence Community
(IC) assesses the death of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden could result in
retaliatory attacks in the Homeland and against US and Western interests
overseas.”
The death of Osama
and the circumstances in which he was found has raised a major debate around
the role of Pakistan
in the War on Terror. The fact that Osama was traced to a mansion at Abbottabad,
very close to the Pakistani Capital, and right under the nose of the Pakistani Military Academy
has raised a lot of questions on the Pakistani military intelligence and the Government.
Undoubtedly, for
quite some time, the top brass of the Pakistani leadership have been denying
that Osama was in Pakistan.
The present situation puts them in tight rope exposing either the connivance of
the Pakistani Establishment or the incompetence of their intelligence.
According to Hasan
Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore, “If Bin Laden’s presence was not known to Pakistan’s
security agencies when he was located close to important military installation,
it will be viewed as their incompetence or over-confidence. If they knew about
his presence but did not take action, this will raise questions about the
agenda of Pakistan’s
security agencies for fighting terrorism,” he added.
Importantly,
Indian officials also have taken serious note of the scenario, and re-emphasize
their long held view that Pakistan
continued to provide safe havens to terrorists, thus under-mining the fight
against terrorism. “The world must not let down its united effort to overcome
terrorism and eliminate the safe havens and sanctuaries that have been provided
to terrorists in our own neighbourhood,’’ observed India’s External Affairs Minister
S.M. Krishna.
Undoubtedly,
Pakistan is an important
ally in the US War on Terror in the Af-Pak region but it cannot be denied that Islamabad has not been
committed to the purpose and has played a double-game. In the process,
sincerely acting against only those terror groups that threaten the Pakistani State,
and over-looking and even colluding in the case of groups that target India.
Hence,
in the coming days, the location of the operation to kill Osama, Abbottabad
might assume more importance opening rounds and rounds of debate regarding the
nature of Pakistan’s
assistance in the War on Terror and testing various nuances of the US-Pakistan
alliance against terrorism. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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