Events & Issues

New Delhi, 4 April 2011

Indian Perspective

IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE VITAL

By Col. (Dr.) P. K. Vasudeva (Retd)

With the US, France and Britain under NATO forces launching military action against Col. Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, the prospect of stability in West Asia, which has been in the throes of uncertainty for the past three months on account of anti-regime popular upheavals in several Arab countries, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Syria, has nose-dived. Importantly, is Libya going to be another Iraq or Afghanistan?

This has been mainly due to the vote in the UN Security Council sanctioning imposition of a no-fly zone in Libya. Not purely for Gaddafi's atrocities towards his civilian population but broadly at the instance of the Americans to allow for “all necessary measures” against the dictator’s regime, an euphemism for military attack. The 10-5 vote in the Security Council largely came about when it became clear that the Arab League was in favour of a no-fly zone.

However, the Arab League is not gung-ho about military action. India did well to abstain on the vote along with Russia, China, Brazil and Germany. Significantly, Germany decided to pull its forces out of NATO over the on-going disagreement on who will lead the campaign. The way the politics of key three Western countries were moving, it was apparent that the authorisation of a no-fly zone would, in effect, mean military assault.  

The US President Barack Obama, has gone on record to say that American ground troops would not take part in any action against Libya. However, direct combat responsibilities have been entrusted to NATO devolving on the US, British and French who have avidly stepped forward to do war. Even so, there is no getting away from the fact that America would be seen at war in three Islamic countries simultaneously, earlier Afghanistan and Iraq and now Libya, when led by a President who is a Nobel laureate. 

In order to retain the right to rule, Gaddafi had unconscionably unleashed air power and artillery against his own people. Should the outside world respond with the use of military force to oust such a ruler? In America, the opinion appeared to be sharply divided. The Defence Secretary, National Security Adviser and the Counter-Terrorism Chief were reportedly not enthusiastic about the course of action the President had green-signalled after being persuaded by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, among others. An important consideration for the pragmatists was that though Libya is not vital to American security, yet it is important for looting Libya’s oil reserves.

Needless to say, Libya is the largest oil economy in the African continent with 46.5 billion barrels of proven reserves. It holds approximately 3.5 per cent of the global oil reserves, more than twice those of the U.S. Many doubt that the allies scripted 'Operation Libya' to gain control over more than sixty per cent of the world's reserves of oil and natural gas lying in the Middle East and Central Asia. Although the Libyan attack is on a humanitarian mandate, yet the US interests seem to be the same as in Iraq.

Nobody wants another Iraq or Afghanistan. The so-called freedom from the dictators at the mercy of another country is yet another form of surrendering ones' sovereignty. We already have three war theatres --- Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq --- being kept alive by Western forces where bloodshed never ends.

More viable peace proposals should be brought forth to avoid bloodshed and the UN should take initiatives to promote peaceful means to put an end to the unrest. From the Indian national security and foreign policy perspective, the regime in Tripoli needs to be a friendly one since Libya is an oil rich country. Whereby, western air attacks or civil war could affect India’s industrial investments and energy security interests there, read Libyan oil.  

Besides, India's national interests in Libya are essentially economic in nature. Considering an estimated 18,000 Indians who work in that country, it is a considerable contribution to the remittance economy and adds to our foreign exchange kitty. Furthermore, Indian companies, especially in the hydro-carbon, power, construction and IT sector have several ongoing projects in Libya.

This is not all. India’s oil majors, Indian Oil, Oil India and ONGC Videsh are increasingly involving themselves with the Libyan hydro-carbon sector, both in upstream and downstream. Also, BHEL has successfully completed execution of the prestigious Western Mountain Gas Turbine Power Project. Similarly, I-Flex Solutions is implementing a project on core banking solutions with the Central Bank of Libya and five other banks.

In addition, Indian companies have executed several projects like building hospitals, houses, schools, roads, power plants, airports, dams, transmission lines etc. The bilateral trade between the two countries for 2009-10 was $844.62 million, showing a significant upward trend since 2004-05, peaking to $1,366.65 million in 2007-08 compared to $29.12 million in 2003-04.

The ostensible logic of the US-led western powers to embark on this two-dimensional military adventure from the air and sea was only to prevent carnage of rebel forces through neutralisation of Gaddafi's airpower, tanks and artillery by aerial and naval bombardment. The opposition to western air strikes is solely on the grounds that collateral damage would ensue and innocent citizenry would be hurt due to flaws in the military target acquisition procedures based on inaccurate intelligence inputs.

If NATO forces believed that their aerial bombardment of Libya would contribute to ousting Gaddafi in a matter of days, they have been proved wrong. The Libyan strongman has indicated that he is no pushover. Clearly, he does enjoy some support among the people, a point that NATO leaders failed to factor in when they charted out their grand strategy to oust him.

According to media reports from Libya, residents in towns like Nawfaliyah are fighting along-side Government forces. This is an ominous sign of an upcoming civil war. The mounting civilian casualties from NATO’s aerial bombing seem to have increased public support for Gaddafi.

A conference of 40 countries has given Gaddafi an ultimatum to step down and go into exile or be prepared to face more bombardment. Why would Gaddafi go when he is regaining ground in his country?

The NATO intervention has gone in his favour. The US, which appears to be playing a secondary role to Britain and France in the military operations, has said that NATO is providing only food, medicines and communication equipment to the rebels. However, President Obama has not ruled out the supply of arms to them.

Sadly, instead of correcting a flawed strategy, the US and its NATO allies seem determined to escalate their military involvement in Libya. Undoubtedly, Libya’s descent to civil war must be halted. An immediate ceasefire is needed. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)