Round The World
New Delhi, 6 April 2011
Political Changes
in Myanmar
SUBSTANTIVE OR
MASQUERADE?
By Monish
Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU
The military junta in Myanmar, formerly called Burma decided
to dissolve itself and made way for what they call a “civilian Government”. But
the question is: Are the changes going to be substantial or just a mere façade,
a masquerade for continuing the old regime in some benign format to blunt some
of the criticism from the international community?
It is too early to say anything
definitively but some conjectures can be made looking at how the new Parliament
has been formed and who are the ones controlling the levers of power since the
exit of General Than Shwe from his former position.
Or should one ask: Is the strongman
of Myanmar,
Than Shwe really out of the political structure? The answer as of now should be
a big “NO”. He seems to have moved
behind the scene and divided his official powers into different ministries to
diffuse power and not give the space to anyone to become one as powerful as
him.
According to sources, General Shwe
has filled all the key positions in different branches with his loyalists. The
power he once held will now be shared between the President, the Cabinet,
Parliament and the military.
Undoubtedly, the kind of power that
the General has amassed in Myanmar’s
polity will not be relinquished very easily. As long as he is on the scene or
behind the scene, it is believed that the old regime will most probably continue
in some form or the other. Most of the Ministers in the new Parliament are
retired or serving military officers, players of the old regime. Thein Sein, a
retired military officer leading the military-backed majority Party in the new
Parliament, was sworn in as President.
The pro-democracy leader Aung Sang
Suu Kyi and her Party the National League for Democracy (NLD) do not play any
substantial official role even in the new political format. Significantly, her
release from house arrest has not changed how the regime restricts political
opinion and controls decisions in the country.
As one follows a highly controlled
change of guard in this country known for the absolute repression against any
form of democratic sprouting, the immediate conclusion is that not much will
change there and the old regime has just found a way of re-inventing itself in
the eyes of the international community.
Suu Kyi is reported to have appealed
to the international community via a video message, to sustain their attention
and interest for Myanmar,
thus raising doubts on the nature of the new changes in her country. Through
the video message, she told a meeting of the US Campaign for Burma, “At this moment, Burma is at a
crossroads.”
Indicative of the wide support that
Suu Kyi has got in the US and reflecting America’s skepticism with the new changes in Myanmar, a Democrat
active on Myanmar, Representative Joseph Crowley reportedly remarked, “One
thing is certain -- when it comes to Burma's military regime, the more things
change, the more they stay the same.”
Looking at the present scenario, one
can be quite certain that western countries continue to be skeptical and will
not rush into lifting sanctions against Myanmar. For the record, even the
NLD, Suu Kyi’s Party is reported to have recommended that sanctions remain in
place although it has urged dialogue on the issue.
But at the same time, talks are
seriously on in the Obama Administration for naming the first US special envoy to Myanmar, thus indicating that the
current US Administration is serious about working out a way to make the most
of any opportunity that comes out of the new changes there, even though the
area of maneouver might look miniscule. In all likelihood, reports say that the
man responsible for coordinating US efforts in Myanmar
is going to be Derek Mitchell, a veteran policy maker on Asia
now serving at the Pentagon.
As such, all is not lost where Myanmar is
concerned and the slight opening given by the new developments could be used
for bringing further changes in the country. Reports on the new arrangements
have highlighted some areas where the international community could hope to see
some change. For instance, the formation of 14 regional Assemblies could help
provide some chances to the ethnic groups to have a voice in local politics,
which if accomplished can bring some incremental dividends.
Moreover, one could bet on the
civilian Ministers holding portfolios in the new Administration, such as an
academic heads the Education Ministry and the rector of a medical institute is
in charge of the health portfolio. So as democracy tries to find the faintest
ray of hope in this otherwise dictatorial regime, one can only wait and watch
rather than switch to speculation mode.
Importantly, where does that leave India? New Delhi has
often been accused of settling into a cosy arrangement with the military
leaders despite being a practitioner and propagator of democracy. The debate
cannot be ducked. But at the same time, major powers including the US cannot boast
of a very clean record if it comes to their responses to autocratic regimes at
times when their national interests have been at stake. Diplomacy demands
adherence to pragmatism and real politik
and slight dilution of certain ideals the country is known for.
Myanmar’s
boundary with India that
stretches over more than 1640 kilometers and borders four North-Eastern States
is a matter of concern but opportunities abound if effectively managed. The
border has been notorious for its porous nature mainly exploited for smuggling
arms and drugs. But, efforts are being made to turn the border into a haven of
legal trade and India’s
gateway to South-East Asia.
Recently, India, Myanmar
and Thailand
held a tri-lateral trade conference at Tamu town, near Moreh. The main agenda of discussion among
the three sides was about improving trade between India
and Thailand with mutual
cooperation from Myanmar.
According to sources, the three countries are already working on a 1400 km long
road corridor from Imphal to Mae Sot in Thailand
via Bagan in Myanmar.
Furthermore, given
the inroads China has made
in Myanmar and its expanding
footprints of investments in the country, India has reason enough to be on
its heels when it comes to engaging with the ruling establishment there. China has categorically praised Myanmar’s new
Government for promoting democracy and denouncing other countries for
criticizing the new Administration. The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned other
countries not to meddle in Myanmar’s
internal affairs.
Undeniably, China
considers Myanmar
its backyard and wants to reserve its own right of hegemony in the region,
which should be deeply unsettling for Indian policy-makers. In this scenario, New Delhi is bound to be
walking a tight rope of balancing its strategic interests, its adherence to the
ideals of democracy and respect for human rights.
Clearly, as a neighbour with democratic credentials, India would not do anything to scuttle the
growth of democracy in Myanmar,
but at the same time it is not prudent on New
Delhi’s part to cut ties with the ruling power in its
neighbourhood, and restrict its diplomatic traction. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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