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Political Changes in Myanmar:SUBSTANTIVE OR MASQUERADE?, by Monish Tourangbam, 6 Apr, 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 6 April 2011

Political Changes in Myanmar

SUBSTANTIVE OR MASQUERADE?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

 

The military junta in Myanmar, formerly called Burma decided to dissolve itself and made way for what they call a “civilian Government”. But the question is: Are the changes going to be substantial or just a mere façade, a masquerade for continuing the old regime in some benign format to blunt some of the criticism from the international community?

It is too early to say anything definitively but some conjectures can be made looking at how the new Parliament has been formed and who are the ones controlling the levers of power since the exit of General Than Shwe from his former position.

Or should one ask: Is the strongman of Myanmar, Than Shwe really out of the political structure? The answer as of now should be a big “NO”.  He seems to have moved behind the scene and divided his official powers into different ministries to diffuse power and not give the space to anyone to become one as powerful as him. 

According to sources, General Shwe has filled all the key positions in different branches with his loyalists. The power he once held will now be shared between the President, the Cabinet, Parliament and the military.

Undoubtedly, the kind of power that the General has amassed in Myanmar’s polity will not be relinquished very easily. As long as he is on the scene or behind the scene, it is believed that the old regime will most probably continue in some form or the other. Most of the Ministers in the new Parliament are retired or serving military officers, players of the old regime. Thein Sein, a retired military officer leading the military-backed majority Party in the new Parliament, was sworn in as President.

The pro-democracy leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi and her Party the National League for Democracy (NLD) do not play any substantial official role even in the new political format. Significantly, her release from house arrest has not changed how the regime restricts political opinion and controls decisions in the country.

As one follows a highly controlled change of guard in this country known for the absolute repression against any form of democratic sprouting, the immediate conclusion is that not much will change there and the old regime has just found a way of re-inventing itself in the eyes of the international community.

Suu Kyi is reported to have appealed to the international community via a video message, to sustain their attention and interest for Myanmar, thus raising doubts on the nature of the new changes in her country. Through the video message, she told a meeting of the US Campaign for Burma, “At this moment, Burma is at a crossroads.”

Indicative of the wide support that Suu Kyi has got in the US and reflecting America’s skepticism  with the new changes in Myanmar, a Democrat active on Myanmar, Representative Joseph Crowley reportedly remarked, “One thing is certain -- when it comes to Burma's military regime, the more things change, the more they stay the same.”

Looking at the present scenario, one can be quite certain that western countries continue to be skeptical and will not rush into lifting sanctions against Myanmar. For the record, even the NLD, Suu Kyi’s Party is reported to have recommended that sanctions remain in place although it has urged dialogue on the issue.

But at the same time, talks are seriously on in the Obama Administration for naming the first US special envoy to Myanmar, thus indicating that the current US Administration is serious about working out a way to make the most of any opportunity that comes out of the new changes there, even though the area of maneouver might look miniscule. In all likelihood, reports say that the man responsible for coordinating US efforts in Myanmar is going to be Derek Mitchell, a veteran policy maker on Asia now serving at the Pentagon.

As such, all is not lost where Myanmar is concerned and the slight opening given by the new developments could be used for bringing further changes in the country. Reports on the new arrangements have highlighted some areas where the international community could hope to see some change. For instance, the formation of 14 regional Assemblies could help provide some chances to the ethnic groups to have a voice in local politics, which if accomplished can bring some incremental dividends.

Moreover, one could bet on the civilian Ministers holding portfolios in the new Administration, such as an academic heads the Education Ministry and the rector of a medical institute is in charge of the health portfolio. So as democracy tries to find the faintest ray of hope in this otherwise dictatorial regime, one can only wait and watch rather than switch to speculation mode.

Importantly, where does that leave India? New Delhi has often been accused of settling into a cosy arrangement with the military leaders despite being a practitioner and propagator of democracy. The debate cannot be ducked. But at the same time, major powers including the US cannot boast of a very clean record if it comes to their responses to autocratic regimes at times when their national interests have been at stake. Diplomacy demands adherence to pragmatism and real politik and slight dilution of certain ideals the country is known for.

Myanmar’s boundary with India that stretches over more than 1640 kilometers and borders four North-Eastern States is a matter of concern but opportunities abound if effectively managed. The border has been notorious for its porous nature mainly exploited for smuggling arms and drugs. But, efforts are being made to turn the border into a haven of legal trade and India’s gateway to South-East Asia.

Recently, India, Myanmar and Thailand held a tri-lateral trade conference at Tamu town, near Moreh. The main agenda of discussion among the three sides was about improving trade between India and Thailand with mutual cooperation from Myanmar. According to sources, the three countries are already working on a 1400 km long road corridor from Imphal to Mae Sot in Thailand via Bagan in Myanmar.

Furthermore, given the inroads China has made in Myanmar and its expanding footprints of investments in the country, India has reason enough to be on its heels when it comes to engaging with the ruling establishment there. China has categorically praised Myanmar’s new Government for promoting democracy and denouncing other countries for criticizing the new Administration. The Chinese Foreign Ministry warned other countries not to meddle in Myanmar’s internal affairs.

Undeniably, China considers Myanmar its backyard and wants to reserve its own right of hegemony in the region, which should be deeply unsettling for Indian policy-makers. In this scenario, New Delhi is bound to be walking a tight rope of balancing its strategic interests, its adherence to the ideals of democracy and respect for human rights.

Clearly, as a neighbour with democratic credentials, India would not do anything to scuttle the growth of democracy in Myanmar, but at the same time it is not prudent on New Delhi’s part to cut ties with the ruling power in its neighbourhood, and restrict its diplomatic traction. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

 

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