Round The World

New Delhi, 15 March 2011

Nature’s Fury on Japan

IMPLICATIONS & LESSONS FOR INDIA

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

As the world tries to grapple with political upheavals in the Arab world, a natural disaster of the worst proportions has struck a fellow Asian country, and a friendly country at that, Japan. The impact of the 8.9 Richter scale earthquake and alarming news of a damage to Japan’s nuclear power installations from the Tsunami has rattled the entire world.

Nothing can be more frightening and unexpected than the might of nature’s terror and Japan is undergoing what Prime Minister Naoto Kan called its worst crisis since the end of World War II. Lately, Japan has been experiencing rapid change of leaderships at the Centre and saw its economy being overtaken by China.

India-Japan relations have been on the upward trend in recent times with major strides in the economic sector and talks of a civilian nuclear deal getting ahead. The two countries had also signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to give boost to trade in goods, services and investment.

But, the present calamity and the kind of threats that it has posed towards the safety of Japanese nuclear installations will definitely prove a speed-breaker on the prospects of an Indo-Japan civilian nuclear venture. Surely, it will not be halted but Tokyo has to reassess its safety standards and take stock of the aftermath of the human and technological tragedy.

But, India has lots to learn from the way Japan has handled this disaster and the kind of problems that will come on its way. And as a friendly country that shares a lot of common interests in the Asian continent, New Delhi needs to do all it can to help Tokyo meet the resurgent challenges and emerge out as vibrant and competitive as ever. This is a time of test for Japan and India needs to be counted as one of the few friends who stood there against all odds with the Government and the people of Japan in fighting the challenges.

India has a lot of stakes in the sustainability of the Japanese economy and the continuation of its major power status in the region. Members of Parliament, artists and social activists participated in a candlelight vigil in New Delhi offering prayers for the victims of the twin disaster of quake and tsunami in Japan along-with dispatching a plane-load of woollen blankets for the displaced people reeling in winter. The External Affairs Ministry is reportedly in constant touch with Japanese authorities on their requirements with the commitment to extend all possible help in this hour of crisis.

According to analysts, the present calamity will hit Indo-Japanese trade at least in the short-run, even though reconstruction activity in the affected cities may lead to increased demand for Indian steel. “In the short-term, delivery of goods in transit will be affected...it would also have impact on exporters' payments,” asserted the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) President Ramu S Deora. According to trade expert Arun Goyal, “A lot of Japanese companies are operating in India. So, there could be a slowdown in investment in the short-run.”

Moreover, concerns regarding the velocity of India-Japan ties across various sectors as a result of this calamity, the destruction that it has brought on Japan needs to be thoroughly assessed by Indian agencies responsible for disaster prevention and mitigation. The focus should be on what we have in place to mitigate such a disaster and to what extent our critical infrastructures including nuclear power installations can withstand such impact. Officials are quite confident of the measures that we have in place, nevertheless everything needs to be re-assessed now.

Japan is situated on the ‘Ring of Fire’, an arc of seismic activity around the Pacific Basin, and has often been the victim of natural calamities thus leading to the development of various commendable disaster prevention and management measures. According to sources, it has in place one of the world's most sophisticated earthquake early warning systems, an extensive tsunami warning sensor network and codes that keep such exigencies in mind to thorough disaster management plans at every administrative level.  But the sheer impact of the recent tremors and the accompanying tsunami proved too much to handle.

Thus, concerns needs to be raised if India has the wherewithal to withstand such of an impact in the future. The Indian sub-Continent is prone to dangerous earthquakes and the devastation caused by the tsunami in coastal India is still fresh in our memories. So, complacency and self-congratulation in this case would be a grave mistake. There needs to be strict compliance of rules and regulations in building infrastructure and simulated disaster management practices should be a regular part of all concerned institutions and related agencies.

Coordination among different Governmental agencies at various levels of functioning and with concerned non-Governmental agencies is a must if we are to save lives and property. Good policies on paper and guidelines on manuals would serve no purpose if they are not implemented strictly and at the right time.  “The early warning system is still poor in our country, leaving little time for people to prepare and evacuate,” said S. Parasuraman, Director of the Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai.

Considering the threats of a nuclear disaster playing out in Japan, there is urgent need for stock-taking and reassessment of India’s preparedness to withstand such an impact on our nuclear reactors along the coastline. For instance, India has nuclear installations at Kalpakkam, Kaiga, Tarapur, Trombay and Koodankulam.

“The safety features of Indian nuclear plants have to be re-checked to assess whether they can tackle inoperable situations,” stated former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman and current Member, M R Srinivasan, who has visited the Fukushima plant in Japan, the centre of concern in the ensuing nuclear disaster there. 

Some reassuring words came from the Indian scientific community in charge of the India’s nuclear plants, arguing that the design of nuclear reactors are location specific and that appropriate measures had been taken to mitigate any dangerous situation arising. “The thickness and the height of their walls are planned considering the area where a plant is set up,” asserted the chief spokesperson, Department of Atomic Energy.

Besides, the alarms bells for safety and security that have been raised by the recent destruction in Japan, there has been palpable concerns raised regarding the apparent economic down-turn in Japan. Emphasis has also been given to the likely effect on Japan's public debt, reported to be double its $5 trillion GDP.

There has also been an analysis regarding the impact of this crisis on the energy situation, resulting on an increase import of oil by Japan which when coupled with the crisis in the Arab world might have serious repercussions for oil prices and hence for the fragile recovery of the world economy. So when Japan grapples with undoubtedly one of the worst crises in its recent history, India as a friend and an equal partner needs to be counted as a “friend in a need.” ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)