Round The World

New Delhi, 22 February 2011

Diplomatic Row

CRACKS IN US-PAKISTAN TIES

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The US-Pakistan ties are in rough waters and it is quite uncertain as to how the fragile relationship will tackle the present diplomatic row. Probably Pakistan’s need for US aid and Washington’s need for Islamabad’s assistance in the Afghan conflict will force them to make last minute compromises, but the issue has indeed opened up a lot of fissures.

The case is over the killing of two Pakistanis in Lahore by an American, whose official position is at the centre of the spat between Washington and Islamabad, allies in the “war on terrorism.” The issue revolves around a singular incident in Lahore earlier this year when an American official Raymond Davis shot dead two Pakistanis whom Davis accuses were out to rob and harm him. A third Pakistani died when he was hit by a US consulate car rushing to help Davis. The widow of one of the men killed by Davis later committed suicide.

The Obama Administration is adamant on getting Davis released on the basis of his “diplomatic immunity.” While many sections in Pakistan question the diplomatic status of the accused American some others accuse Davis of being an American spy who had probably crossed limits of diplomat’s duty.

Media headlines too focused on the fact that Davis had surveillance equipment and an unlicensed semi-automatic weapon on him at the time of his arrest. But American officials contend that the visa provided by the Pakistani Government and the diplomatic passport on the basis of which he came to Pakistan, was proof enough of his diplomatic status on the basis of which he should be granted immunity that he deserves.

It is quite certain that the US-Pakistan relationship is too vital for both to be affected by this diplomatic row that nevertheless rocked the rickety boat. But, this incident is yet again a mirror to the shifting sands on which the ties are based and will certainly have repercussions for the larger bilateral relationship.

There are pressures on both sides, with the Obama Administration intent on winning the day with the release of its official and at the same time concerned about the rising anti-Americanism on the streets of Pakistan. On the other hand, in Pakistan, the fragile Government under President Asif Ali Zardari does not want to be seen as being too soft on its ties with Washington.

The Zardari Administration is seen as a stooge of the American Government by conservative elements and so, it does want this image re-emphasized. At the same time, the Pakistani Establishment does not want American aid stopped because of a singular mishap. A Pakistani court has delayed taking any decision on the case for a while on the plea of giving the Ministry of Foreign Affairs time to investigate the diplomatic status of the accused American.

The move is clearly an effort from Islamabad to defer any volatile face-off with its major aid-source, Washington. The rising domestic diatribes in Pakistan threaten to further escalate the rising anti-Americanism on Pakistani streets, with conservative religious groups adding fuel to the fire. Thus, the Pakistani Establishment is walking a tightrope, trying to balance domestic demands and its reliance on American treasury.

The issue has created divisions within the top echelons of the Establishment. Sources have directly linked the former Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi losing his job to disagreements with the Government regarding the issue of granting diplomatic immunity to Davis. Qureshi had insisted that the American does not have blanket immunity and questioned the Government’s move to further delay taking any decision on the case.

Besides, Washington and Islamabad ties has undergone what can be called a 'love-hate relationship' but the geo-strategic importance of Pakistan in the scheme of anti-Communism or anti-terrorism has never been ignored and at most times, American trust on the Pakistani Establishment have been misplaced.

In fact, US-Pakistan ties are an intriguing study, at how a uni-dimensional relationship built around mere strategic objectives can have serious fall-outs.  The whole edifice of the Washington-Islamabad relationship seems to rest on the American threat perceptions regarding Islamic terrorism and the Pakistani preoccupation with the fact that American aid is something that they cannot lose at any cost.

This sort of over-reliance forces policy makers on both the sides to ignore and by-pass a lot of other elements that often shakes the relationship to its very foundation. As of now, there does not seem to be signs of any revolutionary change in America’s Pakistani policy, at least on the aid front.

Despite a report by the by the Inspectors General for the U.S. State Department, Defense Department and Agency for International Development (USAID) raising doubts on the effectiveness of the large scale American aid to Pakistan and the diplomatic row casting its looming shadows, aid probably will flow as usual, with many prominent US lawmakers including Kay Granger categorically disfavoring any changes in the aid policy following the question of the detained American official.

The Republican Representative Granger, who chairs the House sub-committee that disburses foreign aid, said she had discussed the case several times with the US Ambassador to Pakistan and opposed cutting assistance to Islamabad. “I am convinced it is counter-productive to use US aid as leverage and I believe it would hurt rather than help the situation to withhold funds,” she said in a statement.

Indeed, US policy makers are clear on getting Davis released, but not at the cost of the strategic alliance with Pakistan in Afghanistan. So, despite the ongoing diplomatic showdown, the Obama Administration is not putting the flowing aid on hold, allocating a staggering USD 3.1 billion as assistance to the country for 2012.

But will aid money help stem the increasing anti-Americanism in Pakistan, the weakest link in the US-Pakistan ties? It hasn’t till now. Anti-Americanism is a concoction that has been brewing for some time now in the heartland of Pakistan, being distributed free of cost through local mosques, madrasas and other forms of vitriolic literature. And worse still, anti-Americanism is in fashion, not only in Pakistan but the intensity is high in this Muslim State.

Clearly, US and Pakistan have had the most intense of official and diplomatic channeling since the advent of the Cold War. However, the relationship has been based more on a supply-demand perspective. Islamabad has always expected guaranteed assistance from Washington in return for being a frontline state for the US against Communism during the Cold War and now against international terrorism. Otherwise, there are hardly any similarities or concurrence between the two.

America has functioned as a democracy since its inception while Pakistan, has been ruled by the military for almost half of its existence as an independent State. And years of dining together with Washington, the oldest democracy in the world has not changed Islamabad. It is time US policy makers gave some thought as to how to win the people on the streets and not just Pakistani politicians and military generals. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)