Round The World

New Delhi, 8 February 2011

India-Pakistan Talks

WHAT FOLLOWS, ANYONE’S GUESS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Once again, Thimpu became the host to an Indo-Pakistani effort to weave a sustainable relationship. The Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao met her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir on the sidelines of the Standing Committee meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Last year, when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his counterpart Yousuf Raza Gilani met on the sidelines of the SAARC Summit in Thimpu, hopes were raised of a new thaw in India-Pakistan talks after what transpired post the 26/11 attacks.

But, the faint hopes of pulling the strings together went downstream with the not-so healthy Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Islamabad July last and the diplomatic spat between the two neighbours that continued later in the year at the UN over the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. Both incidents more than emphasized the fact that both face an uphill when it comes to putting India-Pakistan relations on a firm and sustainable pedestal.

The intransigence of the Pakistani Government in vital national security issues has not eased matters either. Clearly, the insincerity and dilly-dallying by the Pakistani Establishment regarding prosecuting and punishing those responsible for the gruesome 26/11 attacks have been the game-spoiler standing in the way to a proper Indo-Pakistani diplomatic track. Despite clear and present evidences against those responsible for the heinous attacks, and the complicity of some sections of the Pakistani Establishment, the trajectory and effectiveness of actions taken by Islamabad has clearly not satisfied New Delhi.

Earlier inter-acting with visiting Afghan journalists in New Delhi, Foreign Secretary Rao said, “It (terrorism) is a big problem for Pakistani society today. They will have to root out this evil definitely and that will help all of us in the region. These are problems that are coming out of Pakistan. The Mumbai terror attacks... the terrorists came from Pakistan by boat...the lone surviving gunman is from Pakistan. There is lot of proof to confirm our suspicion,” she added reiterating persistent demands for acting seriously on the 26/11 case.

The wounds of the attacks are still fresh in Indian psyche and some sort of breakthrough honesty from the Pakistani side in dealing with the perpetrators could be a real booster to a positive perception towards the power holders in Islamabad. But, at this juncture and the way things have gone, one seems to be too optimistic asking for this. In fact, the scenario seems to be shifting to one of a blame game with Islamabad beginning to raise their decibels against New Delhi regarding the Samjhauta Express blast probe.

This attention deflecting tactics could yet again take confidence building measures to the abyss. On the eve of the talks in Thimpu, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit in a statement asserted, “India seems to lack the courage to unearth the culpability of Hindu extremists and their links with some Indian army personnel. Even after four years have lapsed, India somewhat conveniently asserts that its investigations into the 2007 Samjhauta Express bombing case are incomplete.”

In a rebuttal, Secretary Rao bluntly stated, “We have already said an investigation is going on in the Samjhauta blasts... It was an act of terrorism, there is no doubt about it, and when we are ready to share evidence with Pakistan, we will do it.”

In fact, the issue of the Mumbai attacks is not a one-time isolated case for India, but is just a more diabolical case of vitriolic terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil that has tormented the Indian State of security for many years and put insecurity and fear in the minds of the people.

Therefore, it can never be a peripheral issue for New Delhi but a vital component of India-Pakistan talks. When saner voices inside the Pakistani Establishment understand this and make efforts towards showing some results, the talks could come to track in the real sense with some miles being covered towards closing the “trust gap”.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan too is facing the brunt of its home-grown terrorism but it is largely a result of its wrong policies and the high-handed insularity of some of the State’s machineries (read the military and intelligence). So, when Islamabad talks to New Delhi, it would not suffice to say that Pakistan is also a victim of terrorism.

 As Secretary Rao commented earlier in New Delhi, “There are elements within the Pakistani State that have not done enough to control these groups. In fact, they have allowed it to grow stronger and that is the danger that is eating the country. It is like Frankenstein’s monster... Pakistan has created that Frankenstein’s monster” While saying that there were elements in Pakistan who believe that terrorism is a means to further their country’s interests, she added that not everybody in Pakistan thought on similar lines.

As such, it is hard to be optimistic about the Thimpu Foreign-Secretary level talks. The nature of the relationship is too complex to be bracketed as simple clear-cut strategies. Many times, the process of engagement gets caught between the relative importance of the specifics and compositeness. 

Indeed, a comprehensive dialogue should be on the cards for both the countries, but enough groundwork and foundations need be laid or else the crash would be too drastic and disastrous to handle. Islamabad cannot expect New Delhi to make compromises unless the former is ready to come down hard on anti-India terrorist plans emanating from safe havens inside Pakistan.

Rightly, the Indian Government has been cautious about the outcome of the Thimpu talks and has decided to adopt a step-by-step approach, terming the discussions as exploratory in nature. Both sides seemed intent not to jeopardize the opportunity by exercising extreme caution to inject optimism and enthusiasm.

There are now high expectations in official circles that this would lead to the visit of the Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi to New Delhi thus taking the dialogue process forward. The Foreign Minister S M Krishna exuded confidence in the nature of the talks, commenting that they had laid a “solid foundation” for “sustained engagement.”

According to sources, Rao counseled patience in order to allow the dialogue process to mature and described the inter-action as useful and satisfactory. Her Pakistani counterpart Bashir avoided saying "anything negative’’ on any issue, including the Samjhauta Express blasts, Hindu terror groups and Kashmir "at this point’’, rather choosing to condemn terrorism in general and expressing standard uncontroversial diplomatic statements including on the Kashmir issue.

However, despite all the constraints to the sustainability of the India-Pakistan dialogue, one may say that all is not lost, or that all is never lost and all is never gained in international politics. Which is in a constant state of flux. Also, one should never stop using the slightest of openings and breakthroughs to create bigger opportunities and strive for a desirable condition of peace and security in the region, albeit in a graduated and calculated manner. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)