Round The World

New Delhi, 27 February 2007

War Against Terror

Growing US Concerns over Pakistan

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The US Vice President secretly stopped in Pakistan recently on his way to Afghanistan and conveyed to the Pakistani leadership that there is a growing concern in his country about Islamabad’s inadequate support to the war against terrorism. A few weeks ago, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates visited Pakistan; held wide ranging discussions with Musharraf and voiced similar concerns.

As the winter is about to make way for spring the American and other NATO forces appear to be growing restive. It is because of the intelligence reports, as well as common sense calculations, that the Taliban and other insurgent forces in Afghanistan will begin their “Spring Offensive” against the foreign forces in their country.

Five years after the removal of the Taliban regime in Kabul, the US has found it difficult to bring peace to the strife-torn Afghanistan. About 50000 NATO forces and several thousands American forces have not been able to eliminate the Taliban influence in Afghanistan. The land-locked country with pathetic socio-economic conditions is presenting a Himalayan hurdle for the best military forces in the world and becoming a quintessence of the limits of military power.

Perhaps the Americans now realize it better as to how easy it was for them to “bleed the Soviets white” during the latter’s military intervention in that country in 1979-89. Several Afghan Mujaheedin groups were mobilized, trained, equipped and funded with the help of Pakistan’s dreaded ISI to fight against the Soviet military. The American allies were fully with the US strategy against the Soviet intervention in that country. Even then, the Soviet Union could manage to hold ground for about ten years.

The contrast is crystal clear today. There is a pro-American Government in Kabul. The Afghan military has been raised, trained, equipped and supported by the US and the NATO forces. Pakistan this time is again with the US and battling against the Taliban forces. No major power is assisting the Afghan insurgents and the Taliban forces and yet five years have gone by without any sign of peace and stability in that country.

As Pakistan came under renewed pressure, President Musharraf fought back; saying that his country had done the “maximum” and that other allies should step in and make “joint efforts” to guard the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Interestingly, the West, which ignored, doubted or disbelieved India’s consistent complaints against cross-border terrorism in Kashmir, has now been egging on Pakistan to stop movement of terrorist groups to Afghanistan from its border areas.

The US little option is to keep Pakistan on its side. Pakistan is a strategically located country, which is vital to US strategy against global terror. Soon after the US policy makers began to plan the response to 9/11 attack and the decision was taken to bomb Afghanistan, Secretary of State Collin Powell told President Bush that the US would not be able to execute its plan “without Pakistan.” But for Pakistan, the US war against terrorism would have been much more ineffective and the country’s cooperation remains fundamental until that fight against terror comes to an end.

The Bush administration for long viewed the Pakistani ruling regime, particularly General Musharraf as a trusted ally, a friend and an indispensable supporter of America’s counter-terrorism strategy. But disappointment has set in, as Musharraf has begun to distance himself from the US to some degrees perhaps to protect his skin. Blaming Washington for excessive pressure on him after 9/11, concluding agreements with the tribal leaders of Waziristan, believed to be supporters or sympathizers of the Taliban, inability to locate Osama bin Laden rumored to be in Pakistan and suspected ISI linkages with Taliban have been raising questions in Washington about trustworthiness of General Musharraf.

One commentator is of the opinion that Musharraf helps only to the extent it would ward off US pressures. Another commentator argues that evidence of nexus between the Pakistani intelligence and the militants is ample and that Pakistani army continues to rule the roost, while raising the bogey of threats from the militants.

Moreover, Congressional leaders have begun to question the justification of massive US aid to Pakistan in the name of fighting militancy and terrorism. Lack of progress in the war against terror has led to linkages in a new bill, already passed by the House of Representative, between US aid and Musharraf’s performance. The bill requires the US President to certify Pakistan’s commitment to fight terror to enable that country to receive US assistance.

Some Congressmen question the rationale behind blind support to military dictatorship in Pakistan and question the Bush Administration’s attempt to whitewash Musharraf’s anti-democratic measures while simultaneously making statements after statements to promote democracy abroad. Pakistan’s name hardly figures in the US agenda of promoting democracy.

The US Administration, however, is bound by its own compulsions. Pakistan is a country that can become an example of state failure, unless handled carefully. Its economy is in a dire state of affairs. Two-thirds of the Pakistani revenue is spent in paying interest to public debt and building the military every year. The country is largely agricultural and textiles account for 60% of that country’s total exports. It is heavily dependent on external assistance and borrowing to sustain itself. The sectarian violence, rising incidence of terrorist bombings and a precarious governing system add to the country’s long list woes.

Despite these difficulties, it is useful for fighting terror. Pakistan is the hotbed of terrorist training camps and Pakistan-trained Islamic extremists can be found in the nook and corner of the globe. Unless the Pakistani Government is co-opted in the war against extremism and terrorism, the task would remain unfulfilled. The dilemma for the Bush Administration is how to befriend Musharraf, while not generating anti-Americanism among the Pakistani people. The Pakistani opinion against the US policies is one of the worst in the world and massive amount of US assistance to that country has not won the hearts of people.---INFA

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