Round The World
New Delhi, 25 January 2011
Nepal At Crossroads
ADROIT APPROACH
VITAL
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar,
School of International Studies (JNU)
The recently
concluded visit of India’s
Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao to Kathmandu came at a crucial time in Nepal’s
beleaguered politics. The
Himalayan Kingdom is at crossroads. Despite the
initial jubilation of democracy having triumphed there, the country’s polity
continues to see changes without any sense of direction and stability still
eludes Nepal.
The process of power arrangement has
yet to produce any tangible result and the future is as uncertain as ever.
Multiple rounds of voting in the Nepalese Parliament have failed to produce a
Prime Minister and the crucial question of integration of the Maoist army also
called the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) shows no signs of easing.
The withdrawal of Nepali Congress
leader Ram Chandra Poudel, so far the lone contender in the Prime Ministerial
race, has opened the space for a fresh round of nominations and voting.
However, without basic agreement among the rival parties on key issues of the
peace process, it is hard to expect any concrete result or hope for a stable
polity. Amid these, the UN Mission in Nepal
(UNMIN) just expired.
The Mission was established in 2007 with only a
year’s mandate to supervise the peace process in the aftermath of the armed
insurgency. But, as political stability and compromise was hard to come by along-with
the lack of agreement among parties on basic issues of power sharing led to the
continuous extension of the mandate.
However, last year, the UN Security
Council is reported to have decided against any further extension citing a lack
of progress and stating the mission had unfairly been drawn into political
battles between the parties. Even the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon was
reported to have said that the peace process was "at a crossroads," and
it made little sense to keep UNMIN open "without any meaningful progress by
the parties on political issues.”
Presently, the exit of the UN
mission is being filled by a new mechanism agreed on to handle the
controversial rehabilitation of the PLA. The crucial role will now be taken
over by the Special Committee for the Supervision, Integration and
Rehabilitation of the Maoists headed by interim Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Whereby,
the PLA cadres have been formally put under the supervision of this committee
which will take forward the crucial process of rehabilitation. Its effectiveness, to a large extent, will
determine the shape of things to come in Nepal.
The formalities are done but as they
say, “the proof of the pudding lies in the eating.” The real test is how the
finer details concerning rehabilitation and integration are worked out, agreed
on and implemented. Things are not going to be easy there.
According to reports, while the
Maoists are demanding that all the PLA fighters be inducted in the army and be
allowed to keep their ranks, the parties have been insisting that about 5,000
PLA combatants be inducted. The rest, they say, should be rehabilitated,
preferably being given business training and sent abroad if they wanted.
As such, it is best to let the
political parleys take place among the Nepalese parties themselves without any
interference. And if one goes by experience, one should not resort to any
conjecture as far as Nepalese politics is concerned. India
already stands accused by the Maoist Party of interfering in Nepal’s
internal affairs. There have been reports of an internal divide within the
Maoists, between Maoist Chief Prachanda and his senior colleague Baburam
Bhattarai, who was in India
recently.
Bhattarai is reportedly opposed to
Prachanda’s anti-India stance. As such, he was in a damage control mode in India.
"Though we have problems, we need each other," he said. "India also
increasingly realizes that it needs to work with us, the biggest party, despite
the hawks on both sides,” Bhattarai added.
Now, if the crack widens in the
Maoist Party and a split becomes imminent, the anti-India hawks will go out
guns blazing on how New Delhi
influenced the outcome. Hence, India
needs to maintain a studied restraint and not give opportunities for another
round of India bashing in Nepal.
Soon after her arrival to Kathmandu,
Foreign Secretary Rao set the record clear, “I am not here to comment on the
internal affairs of Nepal,” she
stated, adding that India
was committed to working with the political leadership there for a democratic,
stable, peaceful and prosperous Nepal.
While talking to the Maoist Chief in
Kathmandu, Secretary Rao is reported to have
raised the issue of the anti-India stance taken by the Party, a sentiment
specifically attributed to Prachanda. But as was expected, the Maoist Chief
back-tracked and tried to reassure the visiting Indian diplomat that his party
was not against India.
However, at same time, he brought
forth his consistent demand of abrogating all past unequal treaties with India,
including the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty in order to reflect the changed
circumstances. But, Indian diplomatic sources have argued that the Maoists are
not clear as to what they really want in place of the old agreements. Hence,
when appropriate, the Maoist should specify their grievances and be clear on
what are the provisions they term as “unequal”.
As the political impasse continues in neighboring Nepal, India needs to maneouver cautiously
and adroitly. The country is engulfed in multiple differences over various
issues of basic importance. Continued uncertainty still defines the situation; be
it the integration of the PLA, the lack of consensus over a leader, or the
progress made in the essential process of drafting the Constitution.
Recall, the
Constituent Assembly was elected in May 2008 with a two year mandate but it was
further extended in order to complete the Constitution. But looking at the
present situation, one cannot be very optimistic that Nepal would
have a complete Constitution by the extended dateline of May 28, 2011.
Considering the
long Indo-Nepal border, close cultural and economic ties and the looming shadow
of China it is naive to
expect New Delhi
to be a bench-warmer. Clearly, developments have spill-over consequences for India and weigh
heavily in its foreign policy calculations. New Delhi’s
concerns over the Maoist Party’s close ties with competitor China are palpable and hence it would not want
the Communist Party to single-handedly control Nepal’s politics.
It is not rocket
science to discern that New Delhi will be apprehensive
of any move towards Maoist authoritarianism in Nepal. India favours a democracy
where there would be enough consultation and negotiation before any decision is
taken. Given that it lives in a neigbourhood with lots of fault lines and if
not handled properly, a tremor might strike Indian diplomacy anytime.
At this juncture, New Delhi cannot let Kathmandu
turn into a permanent political migraine. Therefore, India
cannot lose track of the evolving situation in Nepal. It has to walk the
diplomatic path keeping its interest in mind but at the same time without
appearing to intervene in the affairs of another country. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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