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Nepal At Crossroads:ADROIT APPROACH VITAL, by Monish Tourangbam, 25 January 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 25 January 2011

Nepal At Crossroads

ADROIT APPROACH VITAL

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

 

The recently concluded visit of India’s Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao to Kathmandu came at a crucial time in Nepal’s beleaguered politics. The Himalayan Kingdom is at crossroads. Despite the initial jubilation of democracy having triumphed there, the country’s polity continues to see changes without any sense of direction and stability still eludes Nepal.

The process of power arrangement has yet to produce any tangible result and the future is as uncertain as ever. Multiple rounds of voting in the Nepalese Parliament have failed to produce a Prime Minister and the crucial question of integration of the Maoist army also called the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) shows no signs of easing.

The withdrawal of Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel, so far the lone contender in the Prime Ministerial race, has opened the space for a fresh round of nominations and voting. However, without basic agreement among the rival parties on key issues of the peace process, it is hard to expect any concrete result or hope for a stable polity.  Amid these, the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) just expired.

The Mission was established in 2007 with only a year’s mandate to supervise the peace process in the aftermath of the armed insurgency. But, as political stability and compromise was hard to come by along-with the lack of agreement among parties on basic issues of power sharing led to the continuous extension of the mandate.

However, last year, the UN Security Council is reported to have decided against any further extension citing a lack of progress and stating the mission had unfairly been drawn into political battles between the parties. Even the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon was reported to have said that the peace process was "at a crossroads," and it made little sense to keep UNMIN open "without any meaningful progress by the parties on political issues.”

Presently, the exit of the UN mission is being filled by a new mechanism agreed on to handle the controversial rehabilitation of the PLA. The crucial role will now be taken over by the Special Committee for the Supervision, Integration and Rehabilitation of the Maoists headed by interim Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Whereby, the PLA cadres have been formally put under the supervision of this committee which will take forward the crucial process of rehabilitation.  Its effectiveness, to a large extent, will determine the shape of things to come in Nepal.

The formalities are done but as they say, “the proof of the pudding lies in the eating.” The real test is how the finer details concerning rehabilitation and integration are worked out, agreed on and implemented. Things are not going to be easy there.

According to reports, while the Maoists are demanding that all the PLA fighters be inducted in the army and be allowed to keep their ranks, the parties have been insisting that about 5,000 PLA combatants be inducted. The rest, they say, should be rehabilitated, preferably being given business training and sent abroad if they wanted.

As such, it is best to let the political parleys take place among the Nepalese parties themselves without any interference. And if one goes by experience, one should not resort to any conjecture as far as Nepalese politics is concerned. India already stands accused by the Maoist Party of interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs. There have been reports of an internal divide within the Maoists, between Maoist Chief Prachanda and his senior colleague Baburam Bhattarai, who was in India recently.

Bhattarai is reportedly opposed to Prachanda’s anti-India stance. As such, he was in a damage control mode in India. "Though we have problems, we need each other," he said. "India also increasingly realizes that it needs to work with us, the biggest party, despite the hawks on both sides,” Bhattarai added.

Now, if the crack widens in the Maoist Party and a split becomes imminent, the anti-India hawks will go out guns blazing on how New Delhi influenced the outcome. Hence, India needs to maintain a studied restraint and not give opportunities for another round of India bashing in Nepal.

Soon after her arrival to Kathmandu, Foreign Secretary Rao set the record clear, “I am not here to comment on the internal affairs of Nepal,” she stated, adding that India was committed to working with the political leadership there for a democratic, stable, peaceful and prosperous Nepal.

While talking to the Maoist Chief in Kathmandu, Secretary Rao is reported to have raised the issue of the anti-India stance taken by the Party, a sentiment specifically attributed to Prachanda. But as was expected, the Maoist Chief back-tracked and tried to reassure the visiting Indian diplomat that his party was not against India.

However, at same time, he brought forth his consistent demand of abrogating all past unequal treaties with India, including the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty in order to reflect the changed circumstances. But, Indian diplomatic sources have argued that the Maoists are not clear as to what they really want in place of the old agreements. Hence, when appropriate, the Maoist should specify their grievances and be clear on what are the provisions they term as “unequal”.

As the political impasse continues in neighboring Nepal, India needs to maneouver cautiously and adroitly. The country is engulfed in multiple differences over various issues of basic importance. Continued uncertainty still defines the situation; be it the integration of the PLA, the lack of consensus over a leader, or the progress made in the essential process of drafting the Constitution.

Recall, the Constituent Assembly was elected in May 2008 with a two year mandate but it was further extended in order to complete the Constitution. But looking at the present situation, one cannot be very optimistic that Nepal would have a complete Constitution by the extended dateline of May 28, 2011.

Considering the long Indo-Nepal border, close cultural and economic ties and the looming shadow of China it is naive to expect New Delhi to be a bench-warmer. Clearly, developments have spill-over consequences for India and weigh heavily in its foreign policy calculations. New Delhi’s concerns over the Maoist Party’s close ties with competitor China are palpable and hence it would not want the Communist Party to single-handedly control Nepal’s politics.

It is not rocket science to discern that New Delhi will be apprehensive of any move towards Maoist authoritarianism in Nepal.  India favours a democracy where there would be enough consultation and negotiation before any decision is taken. Given that it lives in a neigbourhood with lots of fault lines and if not handled properly, a tremor might strike Indian diplomacy anytime.

At this juncture, New Delhi cannot let Kathmandu turn into a permanent political migraine. Therefore, India cannot lose track of the evolving situation in Nepal. It has to walk the diplomatic path keeping its interest in mind but at the same time without appearing to intervene in the affairs of another country. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

 

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