Political Diary

New Delhi, 13 November 2010

Obama Magic

MASSAGING INDIA’s EGO

By Poonam I Kaushish

It’s the season of big fat Punjabi weddings. India played host to the most high-profile one in recent years last week. Where US President Dulha raja Barrack H Obama set hearts aflutter as never before. Replete with loads of naach-gaana with children, enthralling industrialists in Mumbai, entrancing our netagan in Delhi with syrupy promises of unflinching friendship and defining partnership of the 21st century' et al. Such was his bewitchery that Obama, the charmer, came with little to give and more to take, yet cast a spell.

If a balance sheet was to be drawn of the Obama’s visit, it was rich in symbolism, but poor in substance. Typically, we Indians were taken in by ‘the great communicator’s’ flattery, delighted by him labeling India as a “global power” which had a “rightful place in the world, reveled when the US President extolled India's “treasured past” that “has been shaping the world for thousands of years” and charmed when he linked his rise as President to “Gandhi and the message he shared with America.” Forgetting that for any visit to be termed a “success” expectations have to match the outcome. And given the divergence in outlook on some key issues, especially Pakistan and Afghanistan there is bound to be disappointment.

Importantly, the US President didn’t mince words of his mission: His motive was not so much to strengthen Indo-US strategic partnership, but he came as a salesman, doing a hard-sell of his wares to ‘buying power’ India. To increase exports, seek investments to bolster the US economy and jobs for the Americans. And Obama won hands down. By netting deals worth $10 billion which would help create over 50,000 jobs in the US.

For India, the net result, if any, has yet to be ascertained. Obama’s visit will not really change anything or define a new agenda He came with his Presidency weakened after the ‘shellacking’ he got in the Congressional elections whereby his Administration might not have much leeway in terms of an India policy.

The high hopes many in Washington and Delhi had for the relationship following the nuclear deal have been belied. Obama’s Washington views the deal as a way forward for bilateral cooperation rather than a step towards legitimising India's nuclear weapons capability or a way to sidestep the NPT. It is primarily to remove a major irritant in ties so that US business could flourish.

While Washington quibbles over the Nuclear Liability Bill, New Delhi is chary of signing defense pacts which may land it in a wider entanglement with the U.S. military. What to speak of US’s ‘hidden agenda’ on transfer of dual use technology. Obama has already played down ending a ban on U.S. exports of dual-use technology by asserting that it was “very difficult and complicated” to meet Indian expectations. Notwithstanding the satisfaction from the removal of the Indian Space Research Organisation, Bharat Dynamics Limited and the Defence Research and Development Organisation, along with many of their subsidiaries from the Entities List.

But the moot point is: How far did the Manmohan Singh-Obama talks go in addressing India's core security concerns emanating from the threats posed by Pakistan and China? Particularly in Kashmir. Was Singh able to convince Obama that dialogue with Pakistan was not possible until the terrorism directed against India was not put down? Did the Prime Minister convey forcefully New Delhi’s disappointment over US arming Pakistan, given that the weapons would ultimately be used against India? What was Obama’s response? Did they discuss China and the threat it posed in the sub-continent and to international peace and stability?

Specially against the backdrop, that just prior to his visit, Washington sold Islamabad three more F 16 fighter planes along-with largely India-centric weapon systems. Further, it promised Pakistan $2 billion more as aid, after pledging over $10 billion last year. To the point whereby Pakistan is now the biggest recipient of American aid anywhere in the world. Also, New Delhi has to put up with the US building parallel intelligence-sharing, defence cooperation and strategic relationships with Islamabad and New Delhi.

True, Obama talked of “insisting to Pakistan's leaders that terrorist safe-havens within their borders are unacceptable, and that the terrorists behind the Mumbai attacks be brought to justice.” Nothing more, nothing less. He made plain that Pakistan is a “strategically important ally” for the US. Adding, “A stable and prosperous Pakistan is in the interest of India and the economic well-being of the region.”

The problem is that the P and K factors cannot be wished away. Given that India and Pakistan are ‘warring’ neighbours, bound to use all their where-with-all and relative advantage at any time to frustrate the other. A senior diplomat succinctly stated, “While India wants to capitalise on its increasing ability to interest the world, Pakistan fancies on its ability to worry the world!” He added for good measure, “nations don't distrust each other because they are armed; they are armed because they distrust each other”.

Importantly, even as Obama mesmerised New Delhi by asserting, “In the years ahead, I look forward to a reformed UNSC that includes India as a permanent member,” this means nothing. Missing were key action verbs, ‘support’, ‘commit’ or ‘endorse’. Clarified Under Secretary Burns, “We have put India on notice as its term in the Security Council will provide the US an opportunity to work with it.” The reason for Washington’s reluctance is explained by a Carnegie study whereby India's only votes with the US in the UN General Assembly 20% of the time. 

What's more, Obama immediately imposed conditions -- India should toe the US line on Iran, Myanmar, human rights and nuclear non-proliferation. Given that New Delhi has historic ties with Iran and is engaged with it for hydrocarbons and access to Afghanistan and has regional economic and geopolitical interests in Myanmar this is a tall order. Quipped an official, “When people say ‘India should look east then Myanmar is the first country to our east!”

This is not all. Astonishingly, barely had Obama left Indian soil that Washington lost no time in assuring Islamabad that the President’s support to India’s for the UNSC would not be at its expense. Recall, the US long ago recognised Japan's right to the UNSC permanent membership, but Tokyo is still waiting. Said a former US Ambassador, “Washington has yet to endorse any proposal for the UNSC enlargement that can be put to vote as no permanent member favours enlargement, forget pious platitudes. Obama knows full well that China will veto India's aspirations.”

There is no gainsaying that the US President’s visit will undoubtedly strengthen an already-warming bilateral relationship whose geostrategic direction is clearly set -- towards closer collaboration. While it is too much to expect a congruence of US and Indian national security objectives in all spheres, the two countries are likely to deepen their cooperation in areas where their interests converge. Of a less romantic and more business-like relationship.

In the ultimate it remains to be seen whether Obama will be able to deliver on New Delhi’s paramount desire, making place for India on the high table of nations, UN reform and curtailing Pakistan. Or will his visit be remembered as a visit that massaged India’s ego with pleasing but empty gestures. Underscoring a joke, while China gets a deferential America and Pakistan secures billions of dollars in US aid periodically, India is easily won over with a sumptuous dinner and nice compliments. Clearly, the taste of the pudding lies in eating! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)