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Advantage Musharraf:NAWAZ SHARIF HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS? by Sitakanta Mishra,26 February 2008 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 26 February 2008

Advantage Musharraf

NAWAZ SHARIF HAVING SECOND THOUGHTS?

By Sitakanta Mishra

South Asian Studies Division, JNU

The message from the 18 February polls is axiomatic: public opinion matters despite all systemic political imperfections. With an Army General as the Chief Executive, a legislature of the extremist forces, a truncated judiciary, and a censored media, Pakistanis have exercised their franchise the way it is desired. The initial fear of rigging and violence has been turned into the post-election euphoria owing to the fact that moderate forces rooted out the incumbent party, otherwise, Musharraf would have been accused of manipulation.

However, complacency is unwarranted as this election does not bring the changes Pakistan has long been striving for. A fractured mandate, a sentimental coalition partner (Sharif) with revengeful conditionality and a mal-adjusted micro-economy --- all indicate the wide split that the extremist forces would certainly exploit for their survival. 

Though the poll claimed to be relatively peaceful, a 45.6 per cent turnout clearly vindicates how the shadow of violence has circumscribed the voting. A suicide bomb killed a candidate and 9 other people on the election-day. Despite the deployment of 60,000 Armed Forces in the North West Frontier Provinces alone, threats from the militants kept women away from exercising their right. In Peshawar, the women turnout was roughly 8 per cent while it was 20 per cent in the case of men.

However, the outcome of the election is an expression of the discontent among the people with the Mullah-Military rule. Other factors like, the micro-economic mismanagement, peoples' resentment toward feudalism, assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the manner in which the war on terror is being fought and the tampering of the judiciary are major determinants to reduce the sarkari PML-Q’s popularity to 38 seats.

Politics is the art of possible. The Pakistani People's Party's (PPP) determination not to side with the Mullah-Military alliance that backs Musharraf left the only option for a circumstantial coalition with the PML-N. In spite of their enmity for decades and the absence of any ideological proximity, it is this circumstance that has brought the PPP and the PML-N together to form the Government with 153 members, lacking a two-third majority in a House of 272.

If all the 27 elected independent candidates and other smaller players like the Awami National Party leader, Afsandyar Wali Khan, the Tehreek-e-Insaaf leader Imran Khan and Altaf Husain's MQM that won 19 seats are brought on board, a tight-roped two-third majority can be achieved. But the onus lies with the leadership --- the ability of the Prime Minister to mend all factions together for a five-year term. The veteran politician Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a longtime Bhutto loyalist from the Sindh province with a reputation as a "consensus builder" and good at "papering over differences" is the pragmatic choice.

But the Nawaz Sharif camp is beginning to have some serious doubts about the PPP, especially with respect to the agenda on President Pervez Musharraf. The PPP leaders have not yet clearly indicated whether they will go for an impeachment motion. Particularly as Fahim is not in favour of the idea and the PPP's co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari has repeatedly referred to a consensus in the Parliament on the issue.

If Sharif is going to have a second thought on his support to PPP, the plan to form a "grand coalition" would unnecessary delay the democratic process and the situation would turn in favour of Musharraf to play his own cards. As is seen, immediately after the poll, Musharraf engaged all his aides to persuade Zardari not to deal with the Nawaz Sharif-led PML-N to form the Government.

In fact, a split between Sharif’s PML-N and the PPP on trivial issues is not a healthy sign. If the proposed coalition does not materialize, the PPP has to redraw the configuration of the coalition, not surprisingly, availing the support of the PML-Q. This, though is remotely possible and only if Musharraf can convince Zardari.

Therefore, the success of the proposed PPP-PML-N coalition lies in having a common minimum programme which accommodates the aspirations of the coalition partners and efficiently pacifies them on the sticky issues which could be dealt with at a later date. For example, issues like Nawaz Sharif’s demands for an early impeachment of President Musharraf and the reinstatement of the Supreme Court judges are potential to create ripples in the nascent coalition. The priority of the new Government should be to consolidate its power and reach out to the people by addressing the poor micro-economic condition. 

Also, the longevity of the coalition partially depends upon the new Government's dealing with the President. There is no gainsaying that Musharraf is going to remain as an important factor in Pakistani politics for not less than a few years, because no political Party at this juncture can stand alone. And getting a two-third majority to impeach him is practically impossible.

Moreover, even if he is out of his uniform, the Army, as an institution, will continue to back him and may not entertain any humiliation to its ex-Chief which would diminish the Army's pre-eminence in Pakistani politics and society. Also the PML-Q, that backs Musharraf, will be in the opposition to the new Government and would try horse-trading with the independent candidates and small players and probe at the fault lines to weaken the coalition.

It is also expected that the US would counsel the PPP leaders to be soft on Musharraf and it is certain that whoever comes to power can not afford to sacrifice Washington’s friendship. However, it is prudent for Musharraf to plan for an honourable exit strategy gradually through a negotiated surrender of power. By doing this, the dividend of conducting the sacrosanct 18 February election would certainly save his face.

To perpetuate popular support and sympathy, the PPP has to devise a strategy to broaden its vote bank and provide a strong leadership at par with Benazir's stature. The best strategy in the short term would be to prepare Zardari for a landslide victory in a bi-election that would raise his popularity and legitimacy in national politics.

Also, the success of the coalition lies in the skill of the leading political Party to draw the attention of its partners towards the broader economic and global issues. An inward-looking coalition is bound to give rise to political bickering, which in turn, would lead to instability and become an excuse for the Army to act.

It is also prudent not to instigate the extremist forces at this stage to derailing the democratic process by resorting to violence. Therefore, the need of the hour is to have an outward-looking coalition with a common minimum agenda and the consolidation of the Government.

There is sufficient rational in the argument for bringing Musharraf to book, so that no Army would dare to interfere in the democratic process in the future. But the time is abysmally not ripe. At best, the PPP after the formation of the Government with the help of the PML-N can appease Nawaz Sharif by issuing an ultimatum to Musharraf to hand over power and seek exile as he did to Nawaz Sharif or be ready for an impeachment at a  later stage. Unless, of course an anti-Musharraf dispensation creates splits in the coalition which sooner or later might derail the transition of Pakistan to being a democracy. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

 

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