ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 5 February 2008

Pakistan In Turmoil

WILL FOREIGN FORCES INTERVENE?

 By Dr Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

If any one raises a question about the possibility of an international/western military intervention in Pakistan, it raises several eyebrows. A country with demonstrated nuclear weapon and missile capability will not allow any foreign military interference.

Needless to say, hundreds of foreign interventions have occurred in developing and under-developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America in the history of international relations. Currently, Iraq and Afghanistan are under foreign military occupation. But there is no record of foreign military intervention in a country that possesses Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems.

Will Pakistan be an example of such a country in the not so distant future? Such a question is perhaps legitimate to ask, because there is no country with nuclear weapon capability that is so unstable politically, so weak economically and so divisive socially as Pakistan is.

There have been several news reports in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States alluding to the lack of sufficient safeguards of the nuclear weapons in Pakistan. There have been some reports that have claimed that the Americans and Israelis have developed a contingency plan to take charge of the country's nuclear weapons if Pakistan slides down the road of chaos.

These reports have been taken very seriously by the ruling establishment of Pakistan. The President Gen Pervez Musharraf has made several comments saying that his country's nuclear weapons are absolutely in safe hands and that there is a proper command and control system to take care of the weapons. He has also warmed against any foreign interventions in the internal affairs of Pakistan.

But the fact remains that the country has been facing an unprecedented state of instability and insecurity and the situation has been deteriorating fast with every passing day. Pakistan was initially an incubator of international terrorists, but has now become a victim of its own creation. Bombs have been exploding near the Army General's headquarters, market places, political rallies and even holy places of worship.

Secondly, millions of dollars of American assistance have enriched the country's military arsenals rather than enhanced the capability of the State to fight terrorist groups. The military rulers have used the money to buy weapons that can be used in conventional warfare rather than cared to enhance the counter-terrorism capabilities.

Thirdly, President Musharraf's attempt to co-opt some of the tribal leaders of the North Western Frontier Province did not bring desired results. This region of Pakistan bordering the strife-torn Afghanistan remains as ungovernable as ever. The Pakistani Army's inability to maintain order has exposed the country's vulnerability and the danger it could pose to the entire region surrounding Pakistan and even beyond.

Fourthly, the belief that democratic elections could bring normalcy to Pakistan has been shattered by the inhuman assassination of the former two-time Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.  The people in Pakistan and even abroad doubt if the forthcoming elections are going to be fair and free. Some argue that a rigged election could maintain the political status quo and generate more violence and instability. Others fear that religious groups may be able to enhance their influence in the society.

Fifthly, the country's economic performance does not appear be bright in the wake of the prevailing chaos, rising terrorist violence, political uncertainties and growing Talibanization of the society. The Pakistani economy does not have sound fundamentals. It is by and large an aid-dependent economy. It was actually on the verge of collapse when the 9/11 incident occurred and the Bush Administration came to rescue it. If the economy loses it positive growth trend, one can expect the country to face more trouble and turbulence.

Pakistan today can be characterized as a nation that has a weak economy, strong terrorist infrastructures, undemocratic Government, spreading of religious extremism, and deadly Weapons of Mass Destruction. It presents the picture of a problem that cannot be solved without robust foreign intervention.

The American and NATO forces have been in Afghanistan for quite sometime to eliminate the Al Qaeda and Taliban influence and rebuild the country into a democratic and tolerant entity. But the efforts have hardly produced credible results after more than six years of Western involvement and Asian support. The general belief is that the key to success in the Afghan mission is in Pakistan. What happens to Afghanistan if Pakistan is down the road to ruins?

It is an uncomfortable proposition to raise the question of a possible NATO intervention in Pakistan. But unless normalcy returns to that country, this would soon become a topic of high level deliberations in important world Capitals. Will an incapable military regime in Pakistan invite foreign forces for help to stabilize the country? Will it resist such an international effort on the ground of violation of its sovereignty?

Actually, without the support and concurrence of the ruling regime of Pakistan, it is not possible for any international force to intervene in that country. It would be a clear cut case of disaster. But if the Pakistani Government fails to stabilize and normalize the volatile situation in the country and the negative repercussions of a chaotic Pakistan spreads to different regions of the world, can the international community afford to be an innocent by-stander?

From all possible angles, it appears that India has to take note of these serious developments in its neighbourhood and think through desirable steps to address the contingencies politically, diplomatically and even militarily. Pakistan today needs India's help more than ever in the past. 

The peace process in the sub-Continent has come a long way. Pakistan is hardly regarded as an enemy country in India today, although the past memories are yet to be erased successfully. It is a neighbour in trouble. New Delhi has to devise a policy of good neighbourliness to help Islamabad in ways that would not hurt the Pakistani pride and self-esteem.

Nothing like engaging the Government that is at the helm of affairs. President Pervez Musharraf, who got uncountable kudos from the West for his anti-terrorism cooperation, has become suspect. It is because of the rising trend of terrorist activities in Pakistan and the growing influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan. It is time for more robust anti-terrorist cooperation with the Pakistani Government. A stable Pakistan can ensure a secure South Asia. --- INFA 

 (Copyright India New & Feature Alliance)