ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 22 January 2008

India & Australia

DIFFICULT PARTNERS

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

An international conference organized by the Indian Association for the Study of Australia (IASA) in Kolkata last week aimed at improving mutual understanding and forging closer ties between India and Australia. Given the recent blood-letting between the Indian and Australian cricket teams in the ongoing series being played Down Under and the new Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s decision not to supply uranium to India because it was not a signatory to the NPT, overturning his predecessor’s John Howard’s policy.

Such conferences in the past, like the one in Pune, are blessed by the respective Governments, if not directly sponsored and supported by the Governmental agencies. This new initiative to improve bilateral ties was first launched post the Cold War as the Cold War dynamics put India and Australia on opposing sides of the international political divide.

India championed the cause of Non-Alignment and incessantly safeguarded this status even after forging closer security ties with the former Soviet Union from the early 1970s. Australia joined the American-led alliance system erected against the Soviet Union. Hence, Australia maintained considerable tactical distance from India with a perception that New Delhi and Moscow were strategic allies for all practical purposes.

The vast Indian Ocean served as a buffer rather than a water connection between India and Australia. Canberra not only maintained cordial and cooperative ties with New Delhi’s main adversaries, Pakistan since the early Cold War days and with China from the days of the Sino-US détente but it also became a crusader against India’s nuclear programme.

The end of the Cold War, the decline of Pakistan’s strategic relevance and the success of India’s economic reforms ignited an interest in Canberra to re-examine its ties with New Delhi. This resulted in several Australian initiatives to build a range of positive structures of bilateral cooperation.

However, India’s decision to go nuclear and Australia’s ongoing crusade against proliferation have posed a considerable barrier since the late 1990s. Even as trade and economic cooperation continued to grow, but the political differences particularly on the nuclear issues prevented the two countries from forging a kind of relationship that can be characterized as strategic partnership.

Several developments since the early years of the 21st Century induced Canberra to renew contacts with New Delhi with an aim to boost mutual cooperation as well as improve images. First was the path breaking visit of the US President Bill Clinton to India. This visit was successful in giving a new direction to US relations with India. From that time onwards, Indo-US relations have shown an ascending line. The victory of a Republican President, George Bush, the terrorist attacks on the US and the impressive growth in India’s economic performance further improved Indo-US ties to a point where the two countries are marching ahead to cement a new strategic partnership.

Second, India engaged all the major powers, such as France, Britain, Germany, Russia Japan and even China in a series of dialogues and unprecedented economic initiatives and soon came to be regarded by all these powers as a fast emerging global player.

Third, India was fast accepted as a new important player in the politics and economics of the Asia Pacific region. India’s elevation to the status of a Full Dialogue Partner of ASEAN, membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum, its membership in the East Asia Summit initiative to expand regional cooperation and several other developments also cast its influence on Canberra’s assessment of the emerging Indian profile.

Australia could not have ignored all these developments. It would risk its own national interests by not doing enough to boost ties with India. The Quadrilateral Initiative to establish closer cooperation among the US, India, Japan and Australia was the outcome of all these fast moving developments.

However, one of the key areas that can over-heat Indo-Australian differences is the nuclear issue. To start with Australia is a member of almost all the international non-proliferation regimes, such as the NPT, CTBT, Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, Proliferation Security Initiative and several others. But India for long has been the target of all these regimes.

Two, Australia has been found to be quite critical of India’s nuclear programme since the Pokharan nuclear test in 1974. To the extent of Canberra leading the anti-New Delhi sentiments relating to nuclear issues around the world. Three, successive Australian Governments led by the Conservatives and the Labour Party have failed to understand and appreciate the Indian compulsions to go nuclear. Last but not least, New Delhi has never engaged Canberra in a nuclear dialogue in a sustained manner to build confidence or remove suspicions.

Additionally, the Indo-US nuclear deal has a direct impact on the Australian position on nuclear cooperation with India. Recall, the Conservative Government last year gave more than decipherable hints indicating the possibility of uranium trade with India. The Labour Party, on the other hand, has taken a hard line stand on this issue. After winning the national elections in the recent past, Canberra has made it clear that it would not sell uranium to India.

The opposition to the Indo-US nuclear deal in India is perhaps responsible to an extent in making it difficult for New Delhi to shop for nuclear fuel or even technology for its energy programme. If India is not able to make up its mind and develop a bipartisan understanding, other countries, such as Australia cannot be blamed for the lack of consensus on selling uranium to India.

Analyzed in a different perspective, if Australia’s non-proliferation lobby continues to oppose uranium trade with India after the deal with the United States is successfully concluded, it would certainly serve as a major road-block in bilateral relationship. As the nuclear deal has all the potential to cement the emerging strategic ties with the US, a uranium deal with Australia will most likely lead to a durable strategic partnership with Canberra.

Moreover, the differences over the uranium issue would have negative impact on India. Canberra is happily selling uranium to China, a country that is certainly a member of the NPT, unlike India, but is in no way stopping vertical proliferation. The Australian double-standard will derail the current trend in the fast improving relations between the two nations.

Thus, Indo-Australian relationship will most likely be a difficult partnership until the nuclear differences are settled. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)