ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 16 January 2008

PM’s China Visit

SYMBOLISM OVER SUBSTANCE

By Seema Sridhar

School of International Studies, JNU

The Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh just concluded his first State visit to India’s largest and most awe-inspiring neighbour, the People’s Republic of China. The two sides have signed 11 wide-ranging agreements, decided to triple the trade target within the next four years and deepen their defence engagement. The current visit, just weeks after India and China held their first-ever joint military exercise in December 2007, a landmark confidence building measure augers well for bilateral ties.

China’s significance to India because of its location, it’s imposing geographical size, magnitude of its armed forces that have recently been modernized and now most importantly its economic supremacy brought about by its rather unusual blend of capitalism and communism renders this visit of prime importance to India’s foreign policy.

The historical ties between the countries, cradling the world’s ancient civilizations have been characterized by mutual mistrust and cynicism in the past. Efforts to build bridges have always been marred by this mutual suspicion rising especially from the border disputes between the two. The results that have emerged out of such State visits in the past have been if anything, cosmetic in nature.

What is it that makes this State visit different? What are the most important issues that are being addressed? And what are the possible outcomes of these?

India and China are two of the fastest growing economies and have been competing with each other for foreign investment. The two are the most populous nations of the world and have to face the common challenges of developing economies which are in transition. They are also facing the common threat of terrorism and insurgency within their respective national boundaries. These commonalities need to be found and furthered in the midst of systemic differences between these two essentially diverse nations.

One issue where the interests of New Delhi and Beijing have converged is climate change. At the UN Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change Conference in Bangkok in May 2007, China made a submission that developed countries should formally recognize they were responsible for 95 per cent of the green house gas emissions from the pre-industrial era to 1950, and for 77 per cent from 1950 to 2000.

This contention was strongly backed by India and Brazil and the three of them rejected that all the countries had to bear the responsibility of combating climate change equally. Instead, they pushed for increased focus on the rich, developed countries whose per capita green house emissions were far steeper than those of the developing world. Thus, the dragon and the elephant found their common strengthened voice against imposition of emission curbs and their own view of combating the global threat of climate change, reflecting a larger stand for the developing world.

Speaking of areas that have immense potential for cooperation, trade is one such area which is under-exploited. In 2003, the two Governments had established a Joint Study Group to examine the potential for economic engagement. The most significant decision taken during this round of talks was to set an ambitious two-way trade target of $60 billion by 2010 --- reflecting their confidence to make business the primary vehicle to lead the rapidly growing relations.

Economic ties between these two economic growth propellers in Asia, has not reached it full potential despite bilateral trade crossing $30 billion in 2007. The previous target of $40 billion by 2010 is expected to be reached this year itself. However, the high non-tariff barriers are acting as one of the major impediments towards this end. The tilt in the trade balance in Beijing’s favour is a source of discomfort to New Delhi.

The Indian exports in finished goods fall short of expectations as compared to the raw materials and these need to be reversed in New Delhi’s interests. The barriers to direct investments imposed in India and the undeclared restrictions imposed on the import of cotton by China have been key concerns. The revision of import duty on cotton in India would give respite to the Indian farmers growing cotton. Any progress in this arena would boost economic ties and set the tone for a distant vision of economic cooperation replacing competition and needs to be furthered by the Joint Study Groups.

India’s growing ties with the United States is not seen favourably by Beijing even though New Delhi has made it clear that it is not part of any ‘contain China’ strategy. The Chinese position on India's civil nuclear cooperation is also expected to be part of the discussions. New Delhi is hopeful that Beijing’s perceptions of the same would be more positive after this round of talks.

Officials in New Delhi have stated that India has not explicitly sought the support of China in the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) during the talks. Beijing has always been wary of New Delhi’s traditional support to the Tibetans and there are other issues of strategic alignments in the region such as China’s long standing support to Pakistan, the Chinese influence in Myanmar, which add fuel to the atmosphere of Sino-Indian distrust.

The most contentious historical dispute between the two is over the boundary line that stretches across the Himalayan ranges. According to New Delhi, China is illegally occupying 43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir, including 5,180 sq km illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad under the Sino-Pakistan boundary agreement in 1963.

China’s contention is that India possesses some 90,000 sq km of Chinese territory, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh. Since 1988, when the then Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, visited China, a new phase of rapprochement began, which continues to this day, without any substantive conclusion over the border dispute.

During the 1990’s, India and China held a series of talks to create the conditions for a fair boundary settlement. The 1993 and 1996 agreements to maintain peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LoAC) were results of this phase. After ten meetings of a Sino-Indian Joint Working Group (SIJWG) and five of an expert group to resolve where the LoAC lies, scant progress has been made.

The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, have decided not to let their five-decade border dispute cloud the growth in their relationship and have now set a deadline for "arriving at an agreed framework of settlement" to the problem.

With the Chinese recognition of Sikkim as a part of India by opening the Nathu La pass to trade and the Indian recognition of Tibet as an autonomous part of China, a certain degree of understanding was reached on two of the many difficult border issues between the two neighbours, no matter if they are not resolved completely.

During the Chinese President Hu's visit in November 2006 the two countries laid down a ten-pronged strategy to improve the quality of the bilateral ties. The Indian side underplayed the reports of Chinese incursions in Arunachal Pradesh during the discussions. The official position is that other mechanisms were in place to discuss any such issue.

Decades of negotiations over disputed glaciers has only resulted in a commitment to resolve the dispute through dialogue. The way both sides perceive activities on either side of the border are very different and unilateral in approach, which is why not much was expected on the boundary dispute front, during the talks.

True, emphasis upon economic relations is necessary for mutual co-operation and growth, but relations would be mired in mutual skepticism until the border issue is resolved. Since security relations are pre-dominant in the Sino-Indian relationship, no substantive result is expected in the near future as far as this sphere is concerned. This visit is therefore symbolic of a willingness to co-exist and to explore possibilities to co-operate with each other, placed in the larger regional and global context. ----INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)