ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 9 January 2008

PM’s Passage to China

EXPECTATIONS & IMPORTANCE

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh began his first official visit to China yesterday (January 13). He will be on the Chinese soil for three days to cement further existing ties between the two countries. How significant is this visit? And what will be the outcome?

Whenever a summit between Indian and Chinese leaders take place, speculations and expectations go up in the air about some breakthrough in the resolution of the territorial disputes between the two countries. Similar is the case, as the Prime Minister begins his talks with his Chinese counterparts.

Ever since China invaded India in October 1962, occupied several thousand square kilometers of Indian land and unilaterally declared ceasefire, the relationship between the two Asian giants have never been quite normal. In the post-Cold War strategic scenario, the two countries agreed to maintain peace and tranquility along the border, established joint working groups and expert groups to mutually discuss the territorial dispute and come up with some formula to resolve the issue. 

Several rounds of negotiations have taken place, but no solution of this emotive issue has come about. In the meantime, reports of border tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have periodically raised concerns particularly in the border states of the North-east, especially Arunachal Pradesh including Tawang, which the Chinese continue to claim as their territory. Also, Beijing has still not officially recognized Sikkim as a part of India.

However, the Ministry of External Affairs has already warned against high expectations from Manmohan Singh’s three days sojourn in China. Notwithstanding, that the Prime Minister discussed the vexed border issue with his counterpart Wen Jiabao over dinner last night prior to the delegation-level talks today. (More later)

The significance of Singh’s trip to China or lack of it is reflected in the fact that this is going to be the first official prime ministerial trip to Beijing in more than four years! He has visited the United States, Russia, and Japan to strengthen the strategic partnerships with all these three major powers. China comes the last.

Moreover, leaders from very many countries have made their annual pilgrimages to the People’s Republic of China where capitalism is thriving under Communist rule, but the father of the Indian economic reforms chose Beijing as his last destination among the major global powers.

True, the Prime Minister hosted the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, in 2005 and may have inter-acted with him and other Chinese leaders in various international forums, but there have been very few summit meetings between Indian and Chinese leaders under the UPA Government that came to power in mid-2004.

There is no doubt that Sino-Indian relations in the economic field are on the upswing. There are predictions that China at the current rate of growth of trade with India may even surpass the United States and become the largest trading partner of India in the near future. This can actually serve as great rhetoric, but the reality is it can hardly replace the strategic significance of the Indian economic ties with the US.

Besides, it is very difficult to beat China in statistical representation of its economic successes. It is emerging as a big challenge to the US dominance in Asian trade even with American allies, such as Japan and South Korea. But as far as India is concerned, China will be co-existing with considerable uneasiness for a considerable time in the future.

India’s increasingly intense engagement with China is a positive development for both the countries as well as for peace and stability in the Asian continent. The territorial disputes between the two countries have not been allowed to pose an insurmountable road-block in the economic and socio-cultural exchanges between the two countries. Both the countries have also developed adequate deterrence to refrain from military exchanges.

All these are good news. But the economic geography and the geo-politics of Asia will make China and India competitors in the short term and rivals in the long term. And this explains the uneasy co-existence of these two Asian giants. India’s geographical and demographical size, comparable civilization and historical depth along with its rapid economic progress and military modernization have made China sit up and look at India as its major emerging challenge in Asia.

There was a time when Beijing was not prepared to sit and discuss with New Delhi security issues, including the nuclear issues, on the ground that India was not a major power actor in international politics. Today, when the whole world looks at India as a rising power, China has altered its opinion and engagement policy. What are the Chinese concerns and approaches?

Firstly, Beijing has been apprehensively watching the unprecedented improvement in Indo-US relations in the security and defense sectors and appears to be more concerned about the Indo-US nuclear deal that may truly elevate New Delhi’s strategic partnership with Washington to new heights. If this materializes, China’s misplaced fear of encirclement by the US and its allies/partners would look more real to Beijing.

Secondly, China appears to be envious of India’s rising defense and security relationships with Japan, the Indo-Chinese countries and the South-East Asian nations. As India enters into more and more agreements with these countries on naval cooperation, arms transfer, military exercises and intelligence sharing which China has not been able to do so at a similar scale, Beijing’s apprehensions are further compounded.

It is a fact that East and South-East Asian countries consider China as a potential threat and tremendous challenge to their security. The same countries have little to fear from democratic India. Whatever little apprehensions were there in late 1980s and early 1990s regarding the Indian military, particularly naval, modernization and expansions have disappeared with New Delhi’s close inter-actions with these countries.

Thirdly, India’s naval exercises with Japan and the United States in the Pacific and with Australia, Singapore, Japan and the US in the Indian Ocean, coupled with proposals for closer ties among Asian democracies have generated a sense of isolation among the Chinese leaders.

Somehow the Chinese now feel the need to be in the centre of activities and attractions in whatever sub-regional or regional groupings that are being formed in Asia. Any forum where India is in and China is out creates doubts and suspicion in the Chinese minds.

Beijing has, of course, not kept quiet. It tries its best to keep India out of several initiatives and conflict management efforts in Asia. Firstly, India should have been ideally a member of the multi-lateral mechanism to address the nuclear question of the Korean Peninsula.

The Group of Six should have been the Group of Seven by including India. Since North Korea has been a long standing arms supplier to Pakistan and has illegal Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) linkages with Pakistan, New Delhi should have been part of the diplomatic efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. It is China that could be held responsible for India’s exclusion.

Secondly, China is currently on its way to creating road blocks for the successful evolution of the East Asian Summit forum where India is an original member. While New Delhi wants this forum to be an inclusive one, Beijing supports the idea of making it a two-stage process, the first being the ASEAN. And the second, where China is a member but India is not.

Thirdly, China has not endorsed the Indian proposal for establishing an Asian Economic Community to include all the countries located in a region spanning from the Himalayas to the Pacific. Beijing would not like New Delhi to steal the show by making such grand initiatives and becoming the core of such a community.

Thus, the nature of China-India relationship in the years to come has begun to unfold. It would be characterized by competition and subsequently rivalry for the Asian leadership. Nonetheless, it is imperative for New Delhi to engage Beijing in all aspects and dimensions of its foreign policy. The goal should be to immunize this competitive spirit from escalating into a conflict. Manmohan Singh’s trip to China would certainly be a step further in this direction. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)