Round The World

New Delhi, 27 July 2010

The Afghan Quagmire

ANOTHER MEET, ANOTHER TIMELINE

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Afghanistan is in dire straits. As the Taliban increases its menacing hold on Afghan society, President Hamid Karzai’s Government becomes increasingly tainted of corruption and is accused of being inefficient. As the Government’s control over Afghan territory slips away, the Taliban acquires more area of maneouver.

Many of the countries involved in fighting the Taliban as a part of the international coalition are already going through war fatigue, looking for the most viable ways to quit the dangerous job at hand. Besides, the Obama Administration has already announced a timeline by which US forces would start withdrawing, even though various versions are being given to show that the timeline in no way indicates the abrogation of US responsibility to put Afghanistan back on its feet.  

The rationale behind the US withdrawal date is to lend more urgency and seriousness to the process of handing over responsibility to the Afghan forces. But the question is: Is this the opportune time to give a date for the eventual withdrawal? By giving a withdrawal timeframe, President Obama apparently wants to tell the Karzai Administration that America is not going to fund and fight “an open-ended war” and that someday soon a semblance of stability has to be achieved.  

At this present juncture, in the face of continuing operation in the Taliban strongholds, and news of an impending operation in the insurgency haven of Kandahar, the extremists seem to be in a buoyant mood for driving the NATO forces to a point of frustration. They have often targeted the heavily fortified Afghan Capital almost with impunity. Amidst this conflict, the international community is increasingly warming up to the idea to collude with the so-called “Good Taliban” and bring it into the Afghan mainstream.

The London Conference early this year had endorsed this concept, and India’s suspicions about the Taliban were disregarded. Yet again, the recently concluded international conference in Kabul reiterated the promise of the reconciliation process, whereby moderate elements of the Taliban would be roped in to join the country’s political mainstream.

The fact that the Indian Government had cultivated good relations with the Karzai Government along with the huge inflow of aid to the reconstruction program did not translate into concrete dividends in influencing the international deliberations towards Afghanistan.  But, it is worthwhile remembering for the major players that compromise and conciliatory policies would be the last thing in the mind of the Islamic extremists and the Taliban during their tyrannical rule of the country. Which has always been synonymous only with extreme cases of despotism and barbaric extremist policies.

In addition to this re-integration programme that has been a subject of acute debate and divisions, President Karzai has set another deadline of his own for taking over the responsibility of securing the country. His timeline is 2014 for Afghan forces to completely take over the responsibility of providing security to the country. “I remain determined that our Afghan national security forces will be responsible for all military and law enforcement operations throughout our country by 2014,” Karzai told the attending delegates during the conference.

The international community endorsed the plan but at the same time made it known that the plan would depend on the readiness of the Afghan forces to effectively take up the responsibilities of security on a province-by-province basis. NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen while welcoming Karzai’s plan commented, “But transition will be based on conditions, not calendars.”

Major security arrangements had been made for ensuring the success of the high-level gathering. The conference ended without any major security hitches although insurgents fired rockets at Kabul's international airport during the night, forcing the diversion of a plane carrying UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to Bagram air base, north of Kabul. During the conference, President Karzai also called for international support to distribute more development aid through the Government.

One of the major flaws of the present campaign in the war-torn country is the severe corruption charges made on the Afghan Government, which in turn is feeding sympathy and support for the insurgent groups. According to sources, many donor countries and particularly the United States have been reluctant to entrust total authority over the funds to the Karzai Government because of these accusations.  Presently, they are known to distribute most of their aid through international development groups or contractors.

Importantly, this is a critical juncture of the engagement in Afghanistan, when the resolve of the international forces are being tested to the maximum. Moreover, there has been a change in the US command structure, with the much-famed General David Petraeus (known for favorably turning around the Iraq War) taking over the reins in Afghanistan. As the US forces takes on the Taliban in its strongest havens, there is an increasing reiteration of the need to rely more on local forces, equip and train them so as to transfer responsibility.

For this to happen, the Afghan Government in Kabul should make its presence felt in the far-flung provinces of the country. Wherein, ‘making a presence’ does not translate into autocratic provincial Governments, knee-deep in corruption and totally immune to the dire conditions of the local populace. Such frustrations with local governance are the very fodder on which the Taliban insurgency feeds.

 It has been a long time since the Afghan people have really known any semblance of governance in the proper sense of the term. With the Government machinery meant to provide security and administration to its people becoming ineffective, the Taliban has come to fill the power vacuum.

Thus, before going forward with implementing the plans of reconciliation and responsibility transfer, the Karzai Government needs to introspect and win back the confidence of its people and the international donors. The drug trade that substantially funds the Taliban insurgency has to be curtailed. However, in the absence of a serious policy to deal with this resourceful menace, it would be a stiff task to contain the insurgency. Notwithstanding, that the Karzai Government plays a primary role in the long-term process in the pursuit of normalcy.

 It is not yet certain as to how the Afghan Government, with the support of many international players, will go about implementing the policy of reintegrating the Taliban’s “moderate” elements. But if it does go ahead, strict conditions should be laid down to determine how certain insurgents would be deemed fit to join the mainstream. Which is easier said than done.

The Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen reportedly cautioned that talks with the Taliban could only be successful once the coalition and Afghan forces shift the balance on the battlefield. "I think we've got be in a position of strength. We're just not there yet," he commented.

Finally, look at the paradox. The ground conditions in the war-torn country are so complex that the coalition forces are required to fight the dreaded Taliban and at the same time expected to win the hearts of the Afghan people. All in all, one hopes the endgame does not mess up Afghanistan’s already worse situation. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)