Round The World

New Delhi, 28 May 2010

UPA-II 1st Year

FEW MAJOR DIPLOMATIC FOOTPRINTS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The Manmohan Singh administration completes the first year in office of its second term and a general recap indicates that the diplomatic plate has been more than full. As expressed by the Prime Minister in his press meet, India has tried to engage with and has to a certain extent managed to enhance and diversify ties with all the major powers, be it Russia, the United States or for that matter China. The Foreign Minister’s visit to China was deemed a success, although no grand breakthrough was made. Despite the initial hiccups with the Obama administration, India-US relations has caught up with full gusto and the good rapport between the Manmohan Singh and the US President Obama could only take the relationship forward.

India has differences with the US over the handling of the Afghanistan conflict but New Delhi’s close ties with the Karzai government do not seem to be jeopardized by any measure. The Afghan President has time and again made efforts to show his reliance and conviction on India as a responsible power in the region.

India-Pakistan: As for India’s stormy relations with neighbouring Pakistan, the 26/11 terror attacks cast a shadow. During the press meet Prime Minister Singh said “trust deficit” between India and Pakistan was the “biggest problem” coming in the way of any improvement in bilateral relations. “It has been my effort to try to reduce the gap between our two countries without surrendering or affecting our vital national interest,” he told reporters. India has realized that shutting the doors of diplomacy and engagement, more so with the civilian government of Pakistan has not paid dividends and as such, a good initiation has been made at the SAARC summit in Thimpu, where he met his Pakistani counterpart.  

PM Singh cautiously expressed hope at the major diplomatic efforts underway to bridge the trust deficit between India and Pakistan. The nature of the conflict between India and Pakistan is rooted in our common past. The issues are complicated and often inter-linked, one failure often snowballing to hurt composite relations.

The trajectory of India-Pakistan relations can be compared to a messy divorce wherein the couple has a lot of issues to be settled. Any effort to reconcile the differences between will be frustrating often, but it is imperative to keep channels of communication open. A cautious foot has been put forward in by India toward the resumption of meaningful talks between the two nations and fingers are crossed as we wait and watch the developments in India-Pakistan relationship, something that has nearly overshadowed all other issues and almost defines the politics of the region.

India and the AfPak strategy: The tensions and the divergences between India-Pakistan also extend to their roles in the long-drawn Afghanistan conflict. India’s activities in Afghanistan have been a constant source of irritation for the Pakistani establishment, insecure and suspicious that increasing Indian influence might be inimical to its own influence in the region.

The nightmarish rise of the Taliban yet again as a viable political force in the future of Afghanistan should not be good news for India, or for that matter any other country in the region. But, the Pakistani military and intelligence having been actively involved in the creation of the Taliban at the first instance see this ultra-conservative Islamist group as a favourable force to Pakistan’s interests.

The course of events has not been encouraging there with the Taliban confident of driving the NATO forces to war fatigue. Besides, plans being hatched among international players to collude with the so called “Good Taliban” do not sound very promising either.  At present, India’s soft power is evident in the volume of assistance given towards the reconstruction of the war-torn country, resulting in India having to suffer some serious casualties in recent times. President Hamid Karzai’s short stopover in New Delhi en-route to the SAARC summit in Thimpu served as a vindication of India’s soft power influence and encouraged New Delhi to continue its humanitarian activities in Afghanistan provided the safety and security of Indian lives is taken into serious consideration.

Though the politics in Afghanistan is complex and entails a lot of roadblocks in fashioning an effective measure to bring some semblance of normalcy, New Delhi’s caution against power-sharing with brute Taliban need to be taken into account, and the dependence on Pakistani military and intelligence should be adequately evaluated.

India-US: As for India-US relations, it has been a story of some hiccups but a satisfying picture in its entirety. India and the US experienced a thaw in their relations during the closing years of the Clinton Administration, significantly taken forward during the Bush Administration. President Obama’s succession brought some concerns in the Indian diplomatic circles, with highlight accorded to non-proliferation goals. Moreover, the Obama Administration went to the extent of hinting at a prospective Chinese role in the Indian subcontinent. 

But, efforts made to dispel the misunderstandings have yielded results. After much negative speculations, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s India visit managed to infuse a lot of positive energy. Besides signing official agreements, Secretary Clinton engaged in public diplomacy meeting people from across wide areas of interests.

Then, the icing on the cake came in the form of the State welcome given to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the White House and the extra mile that President Obama walked to dispel the fears and misconceptions on the Indian side. The recent US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue raised many an eyebrow in the Indian strategic circles. But, the Obama administration has made concerted efforts to cultivate increasing ties with New Delhi and appeared to be in no mood to jeopardize this intense and diverse relationship. During the dialogue, the US was categorical that the India-Pakistan issues need to be resolved bilaterally.

India-China: Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna recently concluded an official visit to China that has been termed successful from both sides. The high-level trip, as expected, raised a number of vital issues in Sino-Indian relations and managed to keep the competitive nature and unnecessary rhetoric minimal. One of the highlights of the visit was China and India agreeing to set up a top level hotline between the two prime ministers, in an otherwise fractious relationship marred by differences over the boundary dispute, on the Dalai Lama and a host of other issues.

As India and China celebrate the 60^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, recent developments and cooperation are being seen as a reminder that the neighbours despite the seeming competition have no alternative but to cooperate with each other. At the same time, India and China seem to be hardly moving ahead in matters of crucial security interests, be it the protracted boundary issue or China’s response to India’s bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. But keeping in mind the historical contour of India-China ties and the suspicions and insecurity that pervades this relationship, it is best to expect incremental and no revolutionary changes. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)