Political Diary

New Delhi, 22 May 2010

Mamata Or Mulayam

UPA II: CAUGHT IN VORTEX OF GAME-CHANGERS?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Honeymoon or heartache? Lexicons used to describe one year of the Congress-led UPA II Government. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ‘report card’ at his press conference yesterday would have us believe it’s been 365 days of a romantic celebratory. Ably supplemented by Congress drumbeaters who loudly proclaim ‘All is well’. The Opposition dubs it a delusionary disaster. A period of dysfunctional Government compounded by coalition blues, politics of deceit and riddled by scams.  Raising a moot point: Is the UPA II and the Congress caught in the vortex of game-changers?

Undoubtedly, the over 200-plus Lok Sabha seats for the Congress in the 2009 General Elections underscored the chimera that the Congress could run successful coalition Governments. Had a thriving marriage of division of power between Party President Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh. No matter the sniggers of the “power behind the throne.” And invoked the people’s trust.

So what soured? Nearly everything. One, the Congress could not handle the success. A huge element of arrogance seeped in along-with its trademark cynicism of opportunistic alliances, crony capitalism and fake socialist credentials leading to a disillusioned aam aadmi. Wherein sadly governance took a back seat and political management ruled the roost.

From the beginning, it was obvious that the Congress shared an uneasy relationship with the three of its regional allies, Mamata’s Trinimool, Pawar’s NCP and Karunanidhi’s DMK. One year down the line the ties are frayed at the edges. The rift between Congress and Trinamool over seat-sharing for Kolkata municipal polls brought to the fore the tenuous relations between the Congress and the Trinamul. The big question is if they'll stay together for the assembly election in 2011.

The DMK is plagued with a serious palace war. Not only a battle for political succession but also for sharing the profits of the office. By turning of a blind eye to the allegations against Raja over the 2G spectrum scam might help the Congress keep the DMK on its side but it has hit hard Manmohan Singh image of probity. As also shows that it is the DMK, and not the PM who decides who will be a Minister. It is no secret that the NCP shares a relationship of compulsion with the Congress both at the Centre and State.

In fact, matters came to the fore during the Budget session, when the Government suddenly realised that it had a slender majority of three in the Lok Sabha and was heavily outnumbered in the Rajya Sabha. So it took recourse to Congress politics of deceit and manipulative politics. Made plain by using the CBI to further its partisan purposes.

The Government agreed to reconsider the DA case pending against Mayawati and affidavits of Mulayam were changed. The fallout? Both agreed to support the Government on the Opposition-sponsored cut motions on the finance Bill.  It is a different matter that this cosying up to the Dalit czarina means that the Congress has undercut Rahul Gandhi's efforts to rebuild the Party's base in UP.

As for the SP, by offering himself as partner Mulayam decision may smack of boldness but it also underlines the Party's dwindling fortunes in UP. From being a major power player, he now seems inclined to strike a bargain with UPA on any terms, notwithstanding that the UP race is essentially between the Congress and BSP. Ever since he was ejected from power from UP in 2007, Mulayam has been eyeing a foothold in the UPA. Some influence at the Centre could help the SP recover ground in UP where Assembly elections are slated in 2012. Its desperation to get close to the UPA also stems from the fear that the Congress and the BSP may work together to marginalise it further.

From the Congress viewpoint faced with a sulking Trinamool it has  adroitly lined up the Samajwadi in case Mamata walks out of the coalition and the BSP acts pricey. Whatever the permutations are the Congress has reason to feel happy. The 13-Party Opposition unity ahead of the cut motion has dissipated. The non-UPA, non-NDA front the Left attempted to build with the SP and the RJD has not materialised. It has successfully wooed back estranged Mandal friends angered by the Government ramming the Women's Reservation Bill through the Rajya Sabha with the caste card.

True, with a divided Opposition and allies-in-waiting, the Government has the space to breathe easy, at least for now. However, in terms of cost-benefit analysis it has lost. Not only has it damaged the credibility of institutions like the CBI to remain in power, but by looking the other way over scandals like 2G spectrum and ensuring that the perpetrators are held accountable it has exposed its dysfunctional side and debilitating weakness for power.

Two, there seems to be a growing visible disconnect between Sonia and the Prime Minister. The body language and eloquent silence during the introduction of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill and caste census in the Lok Sabha said it all. Congressmen made plain their discomfort over the Bill which caps the liability for nuclear accidents and lets the suppliers and designers of N-equipment off the liability hook.

With regard to introducing caste in the census enumerations it was clear that while the Government was unwilling to take this dangerously divisive step as evident from Singh's comment that the Cabinet would consider it, Sonia asserted her ‘social justice’ leaning.

Bluntly, the 'caste in census' card is intended to persuade the Yadav duo --Lalu and Mulayam -- to continue backing the Government from outside. So what if it sets India back a century. Hurting as there are from Sonia forcefully ramming through the women's Reservation Bill in the Rajya Sabha despite their vociferous stalling of both Houses of Parliament. All to woo women and the middle class vote-banks.

Further, it is no secret the Congress is uncomfortable with the PM’s perceived wilting under US pressure on the N-issue, resumption of dialogue with Pakistan and the Home Minister’s strong pro-activism over dealing with the Naxalite menace. The comments of senior leaders like Digvijay Singh  and Mani Shankar Aiyar suggest a marked difference in approach. Add to this Singh’s reputation as an economic PM has taken a beating. The Government has failed to bring down sky-rocketing prices and run-away inflation. More. The indiscretions of Tharoor, Jairam Ramesh and MPs in support of khap panchayats buttress the image of  a PM not in control.

What next? Importantly, one year is not a long time in politics provided both Sonia and Manmohan Singh collectively have the will to make amends, sternly deal with taciturn allies and new-found fair-weather friends out to extract their pound of flesh. They cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

Clearly, none doubt Sonia and Singh’s sincerity to deliver good governance but sadly there is a marked visible disconnect between the two. The time has come for them to collectively rectify the flaws in governance, redeem the Congress-led UPA II’s goodwill and insure that the benefits of various measures accrue to the aam aadmi . But for that to happen it is imperative to amputate ties with phony leaders dump its allies marrying a Else it will be remembered as a Government wherein governance went for a toss and political management ruled the roost. Replete with a culture of crony capitalism, opportunistic covenants dominated by political patronage and murky deals. Hail the game-changers! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)