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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 12 December 2009
India At Copenhagen
NEEDLESS,
UNREALISTIC COMMITMENT
By Shivaji Sarkar
Should India or should not? That is the
question rocking India
after announcement of voluntary carbon emission cuts by Minister of State for Environment
Jairam Ramesh. Should the country, one of the lowest carbon emitter, have taken
to such “bold” steps ignoring economic realities or to state simply at the cost
of alleviating poverty?
A response could well be found in
the World Bank’s reaction i.e it has not only called the minister’s statement
far away from reality but virtually termed it a day dream. The nation needs to
take a hard look at climate change. Indian emissions are 20 per cent below the
world average, the Bank report states.
It is time to check whether global
warming, a periodic earthly phenomenon, could be checked by emission controls
aimed particularly at poor nations trying to develop themselves. Noah as per
Biblical tradition or Manu, as per Puranical tradition, had to build the giant
ark to save the exotic species because of the massive inundation. Was that not
caused by global warming? Was there so much carbon emission as it is now? Even
before Noah and Manu the earth had undergone such phenomenon at least six
times, which geologists call ice and pluvial ages. Could anybody prevent those
earthly manifestations?
India needs to educate the world and is
under no obligation to reduce emission. Those – the US and other western developed
nations – are trying to penalize the poor for the sins committed by the rich.
It is the rich who have polluted the earth for centuries. Europe
destroyed its natural forests, European immigrants devastated the American
aboriginal civilizations, played with Australian ecology and now they are on an
onslaught to stop the progress of rising Asian economies in the name of climate
disaster.
India needs to be extremely cautious and
should not have rushed to Copenhagen
to make even a moral commitment. At best the country should have raised its voice
for the poor and roared to increase emission so that the downtrodden could have
a better life.
It is also time to learn from 30,000
American scientists, who have put their names to a petition that notes, “There
is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide,
methane or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable
future, cause catastrophic heating off the earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the earth’s
climate”.
Why should India ignore
this wisdom? Why should India
call itself a sinner and own the sins of the highest emitter? It is time to see
through the games of the short-sightedness of those which created the problem
in the first place. The US
did not sign the Kyoto
protocol, now a dead document except for academic purposes. The World Bank
states in the latest World Development Report that emissions have increased by
25 per cent since Kyoto
was negotiated. But it has bled the world of $2.7 billion invested in the
Global Environment Facility projects.
China, heavily dependent on the US economy was
under obligation to announce that it would cut carbon dioxide emissions per
unit of GDP (carbon intensity) by 40-45 per cent by 2020 from 2005 levels. It,
in fact, resorted to jugglery. China’s
carbon intensity is already quite high – in 2006 it emitted 2.85 tonnes of C02
for $ 1000 GDP, compared to 0.54 tonnes for the US and some European countries
achieving far lower levels. The 2005 figure for India is 1.82.
Here too there is a catch. The GDP
values of the US, Europe and
China are far higher than
that of India.
The comparison is not on an even plain. The Chinese decision under the US dictat was taken to generate pressure on New Delhi. Sadly enough
the government succumbed to the trap without analyzing the macro impact and
studying the issue in absolute terms. Percentages, if not connected to the
absolute could always create an illusory situation. India has got into that illusion. Going
by the present trends of electricity uses, India, which consumes a pathetic 503
kwh per capita, could reach Chinese and Brazilian levels of 2040 and 2060 kwh
not before 2030.
It is also incorrect to assume that
the country has gained in terms of global prestige by posturing. Internationally
it has been observed that India
often decides the floor level in contentious issues. It has happened at the World
Trade Organisation meet in Singapore
as well. India
lost the textile export protection soon after that. The country loses for wrong
moves. Copenhagen may be one of the greatest blunders as it is likely to
severely pressurize its move to accelerate the pace of industrialization and
farm reforms – the essentials for creating jobs and removing poverty.
Even otherwise New Delhi needs to
learn that points are scored at international meets from position of strength
and not by acquiescing. India has been forced to make conciliatory noises where
none was called for. The commitments by India, the World Bank says, would cost
it dearly. It has estimated that just the capital costs in setting up cleaner
grid power could rise by 15-25 per cent. The cost of setting up of industries would
also rise. The Bank study undertaken at the instance of the Central government
states that the country would have to make heavy and possibly unaffordable
investments to meet the target set in the 12th and 13th
Five-Year Plan.
It is not to suggest that India needs
to look at low and efficient-energy technologies. There is a huge gap in its
electricity needs and generation. It cannot be met by increasing generation alone.
Efficient technologies would help wider availability.
It has wisely undertaken a Rs 75,000-crore
solar mission target despite the fact it still remains more expensive that
coal-fired thermal plants. It has to decentralize power generation and distribution
and break the monopolies of thermal power lobbies taking recourse to
alternative energy sources, which are cheaper and sustainable in the long run.
As India needs to posture at the
international arena against the targets set by the rich, it also has to gear up in the domestic
scenario for better health of its people as well as cleaner environment and
better uses of the resources. That is
the country’s internal affairs. Clearly, Copenhagen commitment endangers the
growth of the Indian economy as it makes investments unrealistic. India has to
reject it. And, it must do so firmly. -- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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