Political Diary

New Delhi, 24 October 2009

Congress Get’s Poll Math Right

BUT OFF BEAM IN GOOD GOVERANCE

By Poonam I Kaushish

United we stand, divided we fall. This maxim rang true as the Congress victory juggernaut catapulted it to power in Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh, hit a reconcilable numbers-crunch in Haryana and left the divided Opposition parties licking their wounds. Three chairs and “top dog” status for the Grand Dame of Politics!

Indeed the 3-0 sweep in the Assembly polls accentuate that happy days are here again for the Congress. One, they confirm the trend left behind by the Lok Sabha triumph was not one-off as also because they are against anti-incumbency in the States, the third consecutive in Maharashtra. Given the disarray in Opposition ranks, the TINA factor (there is no alternative) held sway. A vote not for the Congress's strengths but the voters' desire for stability. Two, in the short term it could herald a return to the pre 1996 era of single Party rule. The Congress has no challenger at the Centre thanks to a rudderless BJP in Parliament and outside while regional satraps are few and a divided lot. Thus, it is busy reviving its roots in States.

Three, the Congress would be on a much stronger wicket within the UPA. Wherein there may be no takers for tantrums by allies like Trinamool or even DMK. In Maharashtra it would be dealing with a weakened NCP given that post poll Sharad Pawar is in no position to dictate terms. Further, its allies are aware that the Congress is the only viable political option presently. Four, less elbow room for allies could translate into bold and out-of-the-box ideas on the policy front. The upcoming Parliament session could testify to the Congress’ near dominance on the national political stage.

However, at the same time the victory comes with riders. The win in Maharashtra was facilitated by a Saffron alliance devoid of a political plot and Raj Thackeray’s MNS playing Party pooper like the Lok Sabha poll only on a bigger scale. He managed to rally his pet vitriolic raison d’etre sons-of-the-soil theory mixed with brawny arm tactics. Underscoring that Marathi pride still continues to be an issue. True, the MNS didn’t emerge kingmaker as expected but it mauled Shiv Sena candidates in their three decades garh —Lalbaug-Parel-Dadar-Mahim area. Not only that. The MNS delivered a double whammy to the Sena in amchee Mumbai by coming second in the metropolis. Ensuring that he inherits uncle Bal Thackeray’s mantle.

In Haryana, the Congress failed to get a majority despite a three-way split of anti-Congress votes. Primarily, it shot itself in the foot due to over-confidence. Hoping to ride the wave during the Lok Sabha polls that saw the Party winning nine of the 10 seats, Hooda advanced the elections by six months, but the people played spoiler, stopping short of giving it a simple majority.

Holding ominous portents, it has driven home the need for better organization at the local level. The State Government was perceived as an “aamir aadmi’s regime” and many recent investments seen as crony projects.  Add to this, the neglect of non-Jat voters. The resurrection of Chautala shows the resilience of old-fashioned politics and should be sobering for those who feel traditional political tools — caste/community — have lost salience.

In all likely-hood the Congress could return to its old style of relying on the Gandhi family to propel it to victory in the States. Like Andhra post-YSR and now Haryana the Party is busy mulling over whether it is wise to put all its eggs in one basket. Given the incumbent's unilateralism and complete decimation of other centres of power and domination of ticket distribution. Recall, one of the reasons for Congress’ declining graph in the States over the years was the slow disappearance of powerful regional chieftains.

As for the BJP the less said the better. An anemic, completely leaderless and directionless BJP has shown that there is little engagement between the Party and the people in vast tracts. Worse, the leadership’s reluctance to repair organisational dysfunctions is likely to become more stark triggering off inner-party tensions. There is no gainsaying that tasting defeats in electoral battles seems to have become its signature tune.

In Maharashtra, the Party’s ticket-selection procedure along with its delusions of becoming the sole beneficiary of anti-Government sentiments with ally SS will now find its forward movement even more difficult. In Haryana, its flip-flop on the question of alliance with Chautala’s INLD followed by its unilaterally and abrupt termination of its poll pact exposes the continuing drift and whimsical manner in which BJP President Rajnath Singh has run the Party for the last four years.

Not only that. With its second generation leaders engaged in a bitter tussle to wrest control of the Party, decision-making has been outsourced to the RSS. Wherein it is perceived that the Hindutva brigade’s internal affairs is now being micro-managed by Nagpur. This has not gone down well with the ‘independent’ rank and file who are not willing to kow-tow the RSS line.

Besides, the danger for the BJP is that if this drift is allowed to continue, it runs the risk of conceding defeat in Jharkhand, where Assembly polls are slated less than two months. Specially against the backdrop that as the recent poll results have shown Hindutva has limited appeal among the electorate. Today, it stands at the crossroads. By postponing a stock-taking will not stop the wreckage from piling up.

Worse, if it doesn’t set its house in order immediately it might end up losing the Opposition space to regional satraps who have no stake at the national level. Needless to say, it would need a Herculean vision and capability to lift the Party from its morass. Time for it to craft a positive agenda to present itself as an alternative.

All in all, the verdict in favour of the Congress in the three States will help further stabilise the UPA Government in New Delhi .An opportunity for the Centre to get down to serious work, take some difficult decisions and deliver on its promises. Leaving Manmohan Singh bereft of excuses for not doing a good job. As the Grand Dame of Politics basks in the glory of its victories, it should not get over-confident. Victory is a heartless and fickle mistress which comes with a heavy price tag: the responsibility to govern. Here today gone tomorrow! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)