Political Diary

New Delhi, 16 October 2009

Bully in China Shop

INDIA TIME TO REMOVE BLINKERS

By Poonam I Kaushish

Trust-me-trust-me-not. This question continues to plague Sino-Indian ties The mistrust goes beyond the old enmity syndrome. Compounded by the ever-changing dynamics of living in a unipolar world --- strategically, politically and economically. Which speaks volumes for Sino-Indian ties. Of two Asian neighbours who have yet to thaw the chill in their Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai ism!

Importantly, 56 years down the line, Asia’s oldest civilisations don’t seem capable of maintaining a civil conversation. Last month, Beijing stunned New Delhi by unleashing a relentless war of words through its Foreign Office and Government-run newspapers . Portraying “India’s hegemony to harm relations, its new missile able to attack Harbin,” and Indians as “narrow-minded, intolerable of criticism having impetuous superpower aspirations”.

It all started with PM Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh which China claims as its own territory. Expressing "strong dissatisfaction" it warned India “not to trigger disturbance in the disputed region to facilitate healthy relations." In a tit-for-tat, New Delhi told Beijing to cease activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), namely the upgrade of the Karakoram highway that links Pakistan and China and the Neelam-Jhelum hydro-electric project. And voiced its opposition to China’s construction of a dam on the Brahmaputra river, given that the river is an economic resource for the development of the local communities in both countries.

True, we are used to indo-China tu-tu-mein-mein but what is different this time is the resounding harshness.  Questionably, what is Beijing’s game plan? Is it to push the envelope with India? Or to boost “all-weather friend” Islamabad’s sagging morale? Considering that in geo-strategic terms the Chinese threat perception looms large on the horizon. Raising a moot point: Are we back to square one? Of China’ again viewing India as it did in the chaotic pre-1978 era? A time when there was no love lost between the world’s biggest autocracy and the globe’s largest democracy.

Significantly, the strong Chinese reaction to Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal underscores the hollowness of bilateral ties and the complexity of the border dispute that is the bedrock of Sino-Indian ties. Needless to say, this would take long and a grueling dialogue to settle. Notably, it seems Beijing is now pursuing an aggressive anti-India foreign policy. Of a diplomatic strategy crafted on Machiavellian lines. Wherein, it seeks to deluge us on multiple fronts: Tawang, Aksai Chin, Sikkim and now J&K. The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi is issuing visas on a separate sheet of paper to those born and residing in J&K. Thereby supporting Pakistan’s contention that J&K is “disputed” territory.

Add to this, each issue is deliberately left unresolved to be exploited to Beijing’s advantage later. Sadly India has failed to unravel China's surreptitious tactics to formulate a forceful response. According to the Army Chief, Chinese intrusions went up from 140 in 2007 to 270 last year and there were 2,285 instances of 'aggressive border patrolling' by Chinese forces. The key point is that Beijing has opened pressure points against India across the Himalayas, with border incidents occurring in all the four sectors -- Ladakh, Uttarakhand-Himachal, Sikkim and Arunachal.

Over the years Beijing has shifted the goalpost on the border issue. From raising the ante on high-profile visits to  Arunachal, accusing India of building bunkers on the Sikkim borders and Indian troops transgressing into the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as also building structures along it and the Indo-Bhutan border. No matter that they destroyed bunkers on the India-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction in 2007 and demolished some Indian forward posts and bunkers near Doka La on the Bhutan-Sikkim-Tibet tri-junction and a Buddha statue near Tawang a few months back.

More. The wily and inscrutable Chinese have not budged an inch from their stated positions on two critical issues, which form the core of the fragile Sino-Indian ties since the 1962 war.  New Delhi failed to get Beijing to either present maps of their version of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which have been promised since 2001 and the fortification of its borders on the Tibet plateau. Significantly, while the two sides have exchanged maps on the LAC in the Central sector, Beijing continues to drag its feet on the Western sector. Why? It is busy building a railway link to Lhasa which will improve its capacity in case of a conflict with India.

China may have ceased to depict Sikkim as an independent country in its maps, but the important point, often overlooked, is that it has yet to expressly acknowledge that Sikkim is part of India. Beijing has declined to affirm that Sikkim is part of the Republic of India. It continues to arm Pakistan with sophisticated and deadly missiles, has a blue water base in Coco Island in the Indian Ocean, a direct highway to Myanmar, strategic nuclear missiles stationed in Tibet pointing towards India and Chinese arms are freely available in Bangladesh. To its latest dosti with Nepal. Thereby, casting a security net around us.

The two countries share a knotty, long-standing border dispute. While New Delhi claims that China is illegally occupying 43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir, including 5,180 sq km illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad, China accuses India of possessing some 90,000 sq km of its territory, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh.

With both the Asian tigers fighting for the same space globally, economically and politically in Asia, it defies logic that they can ever strike friendship, invoke trust and ever become strategic partners.. Beijing’s growing military strengths and political stability is way ahead of India. It is no secret that China has been listed as the world’s second largest military power. In India’s perception this is alarming.

Undoubtedly, New Delhi must be both alert and assertive. True trade might bond the two, but political ties are as brittle porcelain. A first step to a settlement of any dispute is to build mutual respect. Two, bring clarity on the LAC or at least be appreciative of the “no go” areas so that provocative or unfriendly actions can be eschewed. Exchanging maps showing each other’s military positions, without prejudice to rival territorial claims, is a preliminary step to first define, then delineate and finally demarcate a frontline.

In strategic terms, we needed to pin down Beijing on this. Especially against the backdrop of historic blunders by Nehru and Vajpayee. The former for acknowledging China’s “sovereignty” over Tibet when, actually, it historically exercised only “suzerainty”. The latter for formally conceding Tibet as a part of the Republic of China. Forgetting that reciprocity is fundamental to diplomacy.

Manmohan Singh, must remember that there is no place for emotions in real politik. Nehru allowed himself to be overwhelmed by his friendly feelings and read a lot more into Chinese words than was merited, as he admitted in Parliament in September 1959. He confessed: “Seven years ago, I saw no reason to discuss the question of frontiers with the Chinese because, foolishly if you like, I thought there was nothing to discuss.”

New Delhi cannot afford to take any chances with what constitutes a threat to India’s security. No doubt both have a stake in peace and stability. But it is not a one way street. It cannot be achieved at the cost of one’s self interest. New Delhi needs to be careful and circumspect against Beijing’s wily moves and its capacity to take India for a ride again and again.

Both are quite some distance from becoming friends. They have still a long way to travel. New Delhi needs to remove its blinkers. Else, we will be back to square one: Being out-manoeuvered by the inscrutable Chinese. Rhetoric, loud claims notwithstanding! As Woodrow Wilson once said: “Only a peace among equals can last”. And Theodore Roosevelt’s injunction: “Talk softly but carry a big stick!” --- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)