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Forcing the “Balochistan Factor”:CREDIBILITY COMPROMISED?, by Monish Tourangbam, 29 July 2009 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 29 July 2009

Forcing the “Balochistan Factor”

CREDIBILITY COMPROMISED?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

The genie is out of the bottle. Since the joint statement at Sharm-el-Sheikh, India-Pakistan relations is the toast of the media and the Opposition. Balochistan is the buzzword now.  The Manmohan Singh Administration is on a damage-control mode. As the reference to the troubled Pakistani province Balochistan spirals out of proportion and gets dissected in the hands of analysts and politicians, the Prime Minister would increasingly find himself in a precarious position to explain the rationale of the Government’s position.

Undoubtedly, the Balochistan factor has made the discourse between the warring neigbours dangerously interesting.  But, hyper actions and reactions on this issue run the risk of hard facts and realities being enveloped by emotional jargon.

Not only that. Various elements in Pakistan already seem to be intent on using this “gem” of an issue to further spit venom on India and malign New Delhi’s image in the international community. In fact, Pakistan has been in a mood of celebration ever since the Non-Aligned Movement Summit in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt.

The “Balochistan factor” got into the limelight when the Dawn reported that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Gilani had handed over a dossier during his meeting with his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh at Sharm-el-Sheikh detailing comprehensive evidence of India’s involvement in terrorists’ acts in Pakistan.

Besides, focusing substantially, on New Delhi’s alleged assistance in the insurgency in Balochistan, the newspaper report also said that the dossier detailed the alleged involvement of India’s External Intelligence Agency, RAW in the attacks on the Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore and the Manawan police training school. 

Accusing India of trying to foment instability on their soil is not a new-found endeavour of the Pakistani Establishment. It is been a deliberate part of Islamabad’s’ strategic and foreign policy making. Pakistan has continuously accused India of interfering in the troubled Balochistan province and claimed that the Indian consulates in Afghanistan were being used for anti-Pakistan activities.

New Delhi has denied the report of receiving such a dossier in Egypt. The accuracy of the report was also questioned by Pakistani officials. But, there was indeed a referenced to Balochistan in the joint statement stating that “Pakistan has some information on threats in Balochistan and other areas.”

At this juncture, it would be wrong and counter-productive to comment that the Indian Government consented to the allegations made of New Delhi’s involvement in its neighbouring country. But, the fact that it was a joint statement and not a unilateral Pakistani document seems to have heated up the domestic outcry against the Manmohan Singh Government.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani seems to be extracting dividend out of the statement as he continues to accuse India of interfering in Balochistan even after his return to Islamabad. He is also reaping benefits in Pakistan for having successfully internationalized an internal insurgency problem.

The “Balochistan factor” would, in most, probability be used as a card by the Pakistani Establishment to pressure the Americans to demand more answers from India. In fact, Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Af-Pak, is reported to have already asked his Indian interlocutors whether India would stop its “activities” in Balochistan.

There are some well-placed concerns that these allegations might be used as a bargaining chip in future India-Pakistani negotiations. Even though Pakistani officials have denied the reports in the Dawn, the Pakistani Establishment has, at best, remained ambiguous about the allegations apparently hoping to ride on the appreciation garnered lately.

The Pakistani media had reportedly criticized the civilian Government time and again for not confronting India on the issue of alleged interference in Pakistan.  As such, it appears logical for the Pakistani Government to be making hay while the sun shines. The reports on the “illusive” dossier however inaccurate or incorrect might help silence some of the criticism.

Worse, the Pakistani military is intent on making the most out of this issue. There is an unmistakable enthusiasm and vigour in the Establishment after what they term as the success of Pakistani diplomacy in inserting Balochistan in the joint statement. Reports in the US media have already quoted official sources saying that Pakistan’s Army Chief Ashfaque Kayani recently sought to link Pakistan's actions against Lashkar-e-Toeba (LeT) with India putting a stop to its alleged covert operations in Balochistan.

The American media reports said that while Kayani had promised to “control” LeT, claiming “we are being more vigilant”, he stressed that India should halt its operations in Balochistan. "By the way, India has to stop messing around in Balochistan," Pakistani officials were quoted as saying.

Thus, efforts are seriously being made in Pakistan to put the RAW on the same pedestal as Pakistan’s ISI. Whenever, any finger is pointed toward the ISI for engaging in anti-India activities, the Pakistanis will most likely throw worse accusations against India’s RAW. 

The rapid developments in Pakistsan regarding this issue give credence to concerns that the inclusion of Baloschistan was no fluke but a well-calibrated strategy by Pakistan. At this juncture, an effort is being made to force the “Balochistan factor” into India-Pakistan relations. Such an effort threatens to curtail the credibility of the Manmohan Singh Government and push India into a box with the least freedom of maneuverability vis-à-vis India-Pakistan negotiations. 

As far as the Indian domestic scene is concerned, the Opposition is up in full armour to slam the UPA Government for committing what is being projected as the one of the most serious blunders of Indian diplomacy. Senior Government sources have reportedly urged a careful reading of the text and said that India would have no reservations about discussing an internal matter of Pakistan if it so wished because New Delhi had “a clear conscience and clean hands.”

But, no rhetoric post the joint statement is going to be of much use. If India had been more steadfast and clear about some basic stands on which it could not compromise, a lot of the trouble would have been mitigated.

Another major irritant in the joint statement at Sharm-el-Sheikh has been the question of “delinking” of action on terrorism from the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan. The BJP has accused the Government of “surrendering” and opined that a composite dialogue made no sense without terrorism-related issues. The joint statement said, “Action on terrorism should not be linked to the Composite Dialogue process and these should not be bracketed.” 

However, regarding this, the Manmohan Singh Government should be given the luxury of doubt. It can be argued that Pakistan should cooperate and take credible actions against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks before any meaningful normalization in India-Pakistan relations. But at the same time, continuing dialogue and engagement could be effective in discouraging Pakistan from back-tracking and saying that it could not deliver on its resolve to fight terrorism because of the absence of composite dialogue.

The present furor over the India-Pakistan joint statement and its fall-out points to the lack of serious internal debates and deliberations on foreign policy issues.  There is a domestic audience to any foreign policy decision that the Government takes. Hence, it helps to gain the confidence of the domestic constituency before decisions are made abroad. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

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