Round The World

New Delhi, 27 May 2009

Manmohan’s 2nd Term

VARIED DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGES

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

(School of International Studies (JNU)

The verdict of the Indian electorate is downright clear. People want a stable central government. As far as the timing of this election is concerned, the internal conditions have not been as bad as the external surroundings.

India’s domestic political and economic scene has been relatively strong and stable, as indicated by the campaign speeches, election issues and political debates. But the country went for a general election in the midst of a global recession that robbed hundreds and thousands of their jobs. India’s immediate neighbourhood has never been as chaotic and dangerous as in the recent past. Political upheaval in Nepal, counter-insurgency operations by Sri Lankan Army culminating in a human disaster, anti-Taliban operations of the Pakistani Army in the midst of rising terror-related deaths and destruction in that country and much more.

Going beyond the region, New Delhi faced a diplomatic challenge from the US, reflected in President Barrack Obama’s speech at Prague where he articulated the need for India to sign the NPT; for the US Senate to ratify the CTBT; for the State Department to convince India, among others, to sign and ratify the CTBT and jump-starting of negotiations for a fissile material cut off treaty.

Now that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is stoutly seated on the saddle for a second term in office, his diplomatic challenges are varied and many and not so easy to confront with. First of all, he has to come to terms with the reality that the new US President has less time and a distant ear to hear about India or US-Indian relations. It is more than five months since his inauguration and President Obama has yet not found a suitable person to head the US Embassy in New Delhi. For whatever reason, the new Indian Ambassador presented her credential to the US President only very recently. Compare this with the promptness with which Obama appointed a Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Secondly, there is little fanfare in Obama Administration’s stated goal to implement the path breaking US-India civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, but more diplomatic vigour in Obama’s intention to promote his non-proliferation agenda. Indian officials have already taken note of Obama’s Prague speech and appear slightly worried about the incoming diplomatic storm in bilateral relations over the issue of CTBT/NPT. Thirdly, the new Obama Administration has already implemented his plans against outsourcing of jobs by US companies adversely affecting the Indian economy.

Prime Minister Singh, of course, need not worry too much about Obama’s non-proliferation agenda. The CTBT ratification will require two-thirds support in the US Senate. The Democratic Party does not possess these many seats and the Republican Senators are unlikely to be on board in adequate numbers. The second nuclear test by North Korea and the Iranian intransigence on the nuclear issues will make it difficult for President Obama to buy support for his CTBT ratification proposal in the Senate. The Russian and Chinese nuclear modernization efforts are incessantly moving forward and many experts in the US still feel that nuclear tests would be necessary to maintain the safety and reliability of the country’s nuclear deterrence.

On the other hand, Obama’s stated support for a global zero on nuclear weapons provides an opportunity for Prime Minister Singh to join hands with him to establish a nuclear- free world. Former Congress Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was the first world leader to propose a detailed plan of action for making the globe nuclear free at the United Nations. Prime Minister Singh should not have any problem in teaming up with Obama in principle on this issue.

A pledge for supporting global zero nuclear policy will not affect negatively India’s current nuclear strategy. After all, Obama has openly stated that he would continue to support and strengthen America’s nuclear deterrence capability so long as nuclear weapons exist. Singh can have a similar approach. However, the real challenge will be to steer the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement to its fruitful end in the midst of political storm that may be raised at the time of the debate on non-proliferation issues.

Likewise, the outsourcing policy of Obama is unlikely to be of a longer duration. A leader of any other nation would take similar steps to meet the challenges posed by the ongoing economic crisis. The Singh government has also put in place several packages to stimulate the economy and will be unable to bring about further economic liberalization until the current crisis is effectively tackled. The economic friction between India and the US would not be to an extent that would rupture the relationship.

The real challenge rather comes from the skyrocketing US-China economic relations. In fact, it poses a strategic challenge to India. China runs a trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States that is several times more than the total US-Indian trade. China’s leverage over the US foreign policy decisions related to our region thus has been increasing year by year. This challenge can be tackled only by increasing Indian leverage in the US—political, strategic or economic—to prevent Beijing from dictating Washington’s Asia policy in general and South Asian policy in particular.

Besides relations with the US and nuclear proliferation related issues, Prime Minister Singh will have to confront the worsening political situation in Pakistan. The war against Taliban fought by the Pakistani Army is not such a bad development. But its consequences are uncertain. The same Taliban that Pakistan used to enhance its strategic presence in Afghanistan and to foment trouble in Kashmir appears to have become an enemy of the Pakistani State. But Islamabad continues to view India as the main national security threat and thus cannot possibly antagonize those who have made common cause against New Delhi in the past. Thus, understanding the current confusing state of affairs in Pakistan and adopting an appropriate strategy to deal with positive or negative fall-out is a real big challenge for India.

The Sri Lankan government has won the civil war and the LTTE has been reportedly decimated. New Delhi’s position on the Lanka issue has been controversial in South India. How New Delhi handles its policy towards Colombo in the post-civil war phase will be an important part of evolution of India’s relations with its immediate neighbours. Same can said about developments in Nepal. An emerging global player and dynamic Asian economy and the superpower of South Asia cannot afford to see gradual decline of its influence in its neighbourhood.

Thus, the coming five years will make Singh’s foreign policy plate overflowing with issues, events and challenges. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)