Round The World

New Delhi, 12 May 2009

Taliban Affect

REFUGEE CATASTROPHE IN PAK

By Monish Tourangbam

(School of International Studies, JNU)

The ordeal of the Tamil civilians in Sri Lanka is all but over and yet another humanitarian crisis is unfolding in neighbouring Pakistan. Under pressure from Washington and the fear of the increasing clout of the Taliban, the Pakistan army has started a major military offensive. The current military juggernaut against the Islamic extremists is being billed as a fight for the survival of Pakistan.

But, Islamabad hardly seems to be prepared for handling the crisis of hordes of civilians fleeing the Swat Valley and the surrounding Malakand region, as the operations intensify in the restive North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Thousands of troops backed by warplanes and helicopter gunships are involved in the massive operation against the Taliban and extremist fighters in the area, where jet fighters were pounding suspected rebel hideouts.

A few days ago, when the government eased the curfew, more than 100,000 people reportedly fled the picturesque Swat valley, a former ski resort torn apart by a two-year insurgency led by the Islamist hardliners. With the government unable to provide transport for the panicked and fleeing civilians, people grabbed what they could and streamed into cars and trucks or set off on foot with their meagre belongings.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has described the exodus as an "intensifying" humanitarian crisis. According to the British-based charity Muslim Aid, the crisis threatens to be the largest man-made humanitarian disaster in Pakistan’s post-independence history. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) is calling it the biggest displacement of people since Rwanda 15 years ago.

As the mass exodus becomes increasingly difficult to manage, it will become more complicated for the Pakistani army to contain the spreading extremism of the Taliban within its borders. As the offensive started early this month, there were perhaps a million people still in Swat. The Pakistani authorities have said that they expect between 500,000 and 800,000 to flee Swat and its neighbouring two districts, Dir and Buner, where operations against the Taliban are also under way. Adding to almost half a million already displaced by anti-Taliban operations elsewhere in Pakistan, the country faces a refugee catastrophe second only to the crisis in Darfur, Sudan. The sheer enormity of the impending crisis will severely test the local authorities’ ability to deal with the problem.

But, there have been reports of extraordinary generosity exhibited by locals in Mardan, who have provided food and shelter for the displaced. Ariane Rummery, a spokeswoman for the UNHCR in Pakistan told reporters that it was “working with other UN partners. We have set up shelter in camps. We are not just providing assistance in the camps but there are a number of humanitarian hubs and distribution points. So we are giving out assistance to people at those centers as well. These can be things like cooking sets, sleeping mats, even plastic sheeting to help make shelter in people's backyards.” This apart, the UNICEF is providing water and sanitation to the refugees, while the UNHCR together with local authorities has set up reception centers on the main routes from Buner and Swat.

Tales of the Taliban terror, accusations of shelling by the army and the misery of sudden destitution fill the camps. “People are in shock. In some cases their homes have been destroyed. They are wondering when they'll be able to go back. Others already say they will not be able to go back,” a UNICEF official interviewed in a Mardan refugee camp said. The scarcity of resources and the rising number of fleeing civilians are severely straining the effort of those trying to reduce the impact of the crisis.

The vast Jalala camp, just north of Mardan, the first big town on the road south out of Swat, has been declared full as was the other main camp in Mardan, called Sheikh Shehzad. Thus, fleeing people in search of shelter would be forced to trek further for help. NWFP Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain lately appealed to the international community to help Pakistan cope with the flood of refugees.

Meanwhile, public opinion has swung decisively against the Taliban since this year beginning.  The fallout of the Swat peace deal has actually helped open the eyes of many to the xenophobic nature of the Taliban. Ijaz Khan, a professor of international relations at Peshawar University, says the Pakistani public was mostly in denial of the Taliban's intentions because what they were doing in Waziristan and other remote parts of Pakistan's tribal areas was largely hidden from the public eye and scantily reported in the national media. As a result, the public often faulted the US and its Western allies for their woes.

But recent events in Swat have changed that. Experts suggest that reliable public opinion data is difficult to obtain in Pakistan, particularly when intimidation prevents people from openly expressing their views. But anecdotal evidence and changes in the way the media presents the issue hints at a sea change in the public mood. The people seem to have largely understood that the Taliban had used the deal to advance their own narrow interest and influence, refusing to disarm even after authorities had stuck to the provisions of the deal.

On May 4, a small anti-Taliban protest in Islamabad was organized by Aalmi Tanzeem-e-Ahl-e-Sunnat, a Barelvi Sunni political party that fears the domination of rival hardline Sunni Deobandi Taliban, who in turn oppose the Sufism revered by the Aalmi Tanzeem-e-Ahl-e-Sunnat. The leaders of this group and its allies are now planning countrywide anti-Taliban protests. “Our demand is that the government should ban these terrorist militants with immediate effect,” says Shafiqur Rehman Qadri, a key leader of the group. “They are agents of America. They should be wiped out. The government should also punish them for martyring innocent people.”

The statement shows that the largely anti-American voice in the Pakistani public opinion has remain unchanged. It is ironical that the same public is booing the Taliban, an enemy that the US is intent on destroying along with the Pakistani government. The public mood is quite complicated. The people are increasingly becoming annoyed with the Taliban and their   increasing influence on Pakistani civil life, and want them to be crushed. But at the same time, they see this war as a fight to save Pakistan and not a proxy war fought by the Pakistanis for the safety of Americans.

At this juncture, the Pakistani establishment should couple its military offensive with a strategy to “sanitize” the areas cleared of the Taliban cadres and equip the Pakistani police adequately to man these areas after the flush-out. India-Pakistan relationship has taken the descending ladder after the Mumbai tragedy and the undoubted reluctance of Islamabad to come clean on its connection. Moreover, the election season will probably hinder New Delhi from giving a prompt response to President Zardari’s overtures of conceding that the Taliban extremism was the No.1 threat, and not India. But keeping the worsening humanitarian crisis in mind, India, as an effective democracy and a responsible State in the international community, should instantly offer help in the form of aid and other such necessary resources. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)