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Global Panic:SWINE FLU PANDEMIC IMMINENT, by Radhakrishna Rao,11 May 2009 Print E-mail

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 11 May 2009

Global Panic

SWINE FLU PANDEMIC IMMINENT

By Radhakrishna Rao

After the deadly and devastating avian flu, it is now the turn of the frightening swine flu to create a veritable global panic with serious consequences for the world economy, already battered by the ongoing financial meltdown. Though the World Health Organisation (WHO) has not yet deemed it fit to declare the swine flue as a pandemic and a global emergency, the dreaded disease causing HINI virus is known to have affected around 4500-odd people in nearly 29  countries across the world over the past fortnight. The number of fatal cases attributed to the flu is now over 100.

That India cannot remain insulated from this pandemic was demonstrated by the examination of at least five cases of HINI influenza at the Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Chest Diseases in Bangalore. These cases included two young male techies who returned to Bangalore after a business trip to Boston. Though both of them are now said to be quite stable, they have been asked to report their symptoms on a daily basis. A number of Bangalorians, who travelled to the countries reeling under the vicious impact of swine flu are now rushing to various city hospitals for a check up.

According to medical experts specializing in epidemics, swine flu is a sort of influenza like disorder that affects respiratory tract, which if not treated in good time with effective medical intervention, could prove to be fatal. The country that is the worst-affected is the US (2,254 cases) which has overtaken Mexico, where it originated. Other countries which have reported cases include Canada, New Zealand, the UK, France and Spain.

The worry for India stems from the fact that it is a densely populated nation and its population is highly dynamic, factors that make for the rapid spread of any epidemic. “Those travelling to the affected areas are advised to defer all non-essential travel. We are also tracking down people who have come into the country from Mexico in the last 10 days to check them for the strains of the flu,” says the Director General of New Delhi-based Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). On another front, as a precautionary measure the Government has mandated the creation of a stockpile of one million doses of Tamiflu said to be clinically proven drug for tackling the swine flu.

All said and done, India has reacted quickly to the outbreak of this global pandemic by casting its surveillance net across 21 international airports and 12 sea ports for the screening of travelers arriving from countries severely affected by the swine flu. The aim of the Union Health Ministry being to identify the suspected cases, isolate them and test their samples to find out whether the virus is present. Containment is the only option available.  

While the swine flu has taken a toll of three persons in the US, Canada recently reported its first death from HINI virus. Though both Japan and Australia have reported cases of this influenza, there have been no deaths in both these countries. According to the WHO, the growing number of swine flu cases in Spain could be attributed to “imported cases” involving people returning from Mexico, where the death toll has crossed the 100-mark.

Unfortunately, the negative impact on Mexico’s economy from the flu outbreak could shave off between 0.3 and 0.5% of its GDP in 2009. Its tourism sector seems to have been affected most by the epidemic outbreak. The economic fall out of the swine fly was also reflected in the perceptible decline in the Asian stocks. While drugs and pharmaceutical companies are known to  be getting richer from producing and marketing drugs to combat swine flu, the  airlines industry already affected by the global meltdown has further extended losses on the  back of the concern that swine flue will  bring about a decline in global travel.

Meanwhile, the World Bank has said that the swine flu could throw a spanner in the wheel of global poverty eradication.  It says that the pandemic would push 53-million more people into the cesspool of poverty and want. WHO on its part has expressed the concern that the new swine fever virus is apparently born when human and avian flu viruses infected pigs could undergo mutation with serious consequences for containing the epidemic.

On its part, China has created a US$730-million fund to stop the spread of virus in this most populous nation on the earth. Professor Guan Yi, University of Hong Kong, who has been credited with helping trace the outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2003 to civet cat, has warned there could be more problems if the swine flue affects India and China “where population groups are so close and the health infrastructure still insufficient.”

Regrettably, as per the National Institute of Virology, which has been recognized by the WHO as a national influenza centre, the disease causing virus is highly unpredictable and there is a very little data on what the new strain of flu virus is capable of doing. In fact, while hot summer is not favorable for the spread of HINI virus, the situation in the country India change in the monsoon or in winter season. However, it is crucial to avoid panic if a person suffers from any symptoms of the flu as it has been around for 10 years in the US with only sporadic cases.

Even as the swine flu cases keep mounting around the world, the WHO Chief Margaret Chan has said that one must not give HINI virus the opportunity to mix with other viral strains. Importantly, the weather pattern could play an important role in further determining the spread of the pandemic, which passes on from human to humans.

There could however, be a silver lining. In a development of significance, an innovative air management device evolved by American researchers to enhance the shelf life of their astronauts has been found to be effective in annihilating a variety of micro-organisms including dangerous pathogens. This device has now been deployed in Mexico and its impact is being watched closely. The WHO has raised the pandemic alert to level five, warning that a pandemic was imminent. How soon is the dreaded question? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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