Environment Special

New Delhi, 4 April 2009

India’s Climate Crisis  

Tough DOMESTIC ACTION VITAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

While the debate on climate change has become widespread and concerns are being voiced all over the world, preventive action cannot be considered adequate keeping in view the dimension of the problem. The industrialized countries are pressing the developing nations to accept new commitments but unwilling to accept their own commitments. In fact, the total greenhouse gas emissions of the developed countries increased between 2000 and 2005 – the latest year for which figures are available. It is true that some of these countries such as Germany and Britain did reduce their emissions but it wasn’t the case with a large majority of the group.

As is well known, the Kyoto Protocol sought to reduce emissions from the developed countries by about five per cent by 2012 compared to the 1990 baseline. Except for the European Union, other countries are silent on the treaty obligations. Most of them led by the US are talking about a post-Kyoto agreement, implying that the Protocol should be scrapped. The obvious intention is to escape from the qualitative emission reduction commitments that are obligatory for developed countries under the Kyoto Protocol.

Meanwhile, the Protocol runs out in 2012 and unless governments start negotiations and reach an agreement within the next 15 months or so, there is little chance that the new treaty will be ratified before the expiry of the present one. As is well known, it was in 2009 in Bali that 192 countries party to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change committed themselves to launching negotiations on strengthened action.

Since then there have been several significant events, including the latest meeting in Poznan in Poland, on broad parameters of the new international agreement but unfortunately these have met with limited success. As usual, differences persisted on concomitant obligations of developed and developing countries on burden sharing, intermediate and final targets on emission reversals though there has been agreement on an Adaptation Fund.

It needs to be stressed that the developed countries are seeking to undermine the ethical basis of the current international agreement on climate change. Their objective is to impose a new agreement that will enable them to reduce their own commitments while imposing additional burdens on the Third World, specially China and India. Presently, India is the third GHG emitter in the world after the US and China though its emission of 1.1 tonnes is a fraction of the US per capita of 20 tonnes and an average of about 10 tonnes for several developed countries.

Steps taken by New Delhi include constitution of a Parliamentary Forum on Global Warming & Climate Change for interaction with similar bodies in the EUs, Japan and the US. The Forum is expected to engage with experts for a better appreciation of policy design to mitigate damage and adapt in the least disruptive way to the consequences of climate change. Dr. R. K. Pachauri of The Energy & Resources Institute (TERI) who as chairman of the IPCC, pioneered a series of remarkable reports on climate change, has been involved in the country in formulating appropriate policies in this regard.

Earlier, the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) was formulated offering a list of eight technological efforts to mitigate climate change. However, the document does not specify about the likely impact of the national ecosystems as well as socio-economic impacts in the country. For instance, though it mentions that there will be a rise in the sea level triggering decline in crop production, loss in dairy and fishery sectors, increase in floods, cyclones and vector-borne diseases, it does not state to what extent.    

Nevertheless it needs to be noted that as far as India is concerned the effect may be quite grave. Recent studies suggest that there is a threat of around 4-5 per cent decrease in yield potential of wheat and maize. Not only this, the gross per capita water availability in the country will decline from 1820 m3/year to as low as 1140 m3/year in 2050 (Gupta & Deshpande, 2004). But the Central Water Commission predicted an even grimmer picture – the country will reach a water-stress stage before 2025 when the availability falls below 1000m3 per capita (CWC, 2001). Moreover, the limited herbaceous production, heat stress from higher temperature and limited water intake due to decrease in rainfall could cause reduced milk yields and increase incidence of diseases.

In the new strategy, the obvious primacy will have to be given to technology for formulating energy policies, achieving trade-off between fossil fuel and non-conventional energy, fostering urbanization patterns with lower carbon footprints while designing new cities and restructuring farming and animal husbandry sectors to reduce greenhouse emissions. Already there is lot of emphasis in the country on solar and wind energy (though the bias is still towards the thermal sector) and in the coming years their share in the total energy output is expected to increase.

On the other hand, non-disruptive adaptations entail dealing with rising sea levels and tidal surges, changing cropping patterns tolerant to a rise in temperatures, dealing with the consequences of global retreat and better management of our river systems in more professional and scientific manner. The current trends of glacial melts suggest that the Ganga, Brahmaputra and other rivers that criss-cross the northern plain may in all likelihood become seasonal in the near future as a consequence of climate change and affect the economies of the region.

Thus, strong domestic action is called for as also sincere handling of the problem by the States through various expert committees and/or research organizations. There is also need for awareness generation at the grass-root level, which has to be carried out with the help of the panchayats and local bodies. Studies in black carbon and brown clouds have relevance for India and measures for checking these must be initiated.    

If the government is truly concerned about the vulnerable effects of climate change, then it must impose tight constraints on emissions. Regrettably no such commitment has been made in the NAPCC. Putting economic development ahead of emission reduction targets, the document may be justified in making a case for emerging economies to pursue growth but specific steps to curb emissions with targets must be simultaneously outlined.

One cannot deny that the climate crisis is unfolding in an extremely unjust and unequal manner. India has to take tough action. It cannot use the excuse of large segments of the population living below the poverty line for non-reduction of GHG emissions, thereby allowing polluting industries to grow unfettered. If the government is serious about curbing GHG emissions through clean development mechanisms and/or green technology, then only it can dictate conditions in the formulation of the new agreement.

Meanwhile, the negotiating process and the UN climate change conference scheduled to be held in year-end in Copenhagen constitute a window of opportunity, which experts believe if recognized and acted upon judiciously, could set the world on a path towards green economy. This has been reiterated by the UN Secretary General, who very aptly pointed out at New Delhi that the Copenhagen meet must clarify commitments of developed countries to reduce their emissions by setting up ambitious mid-term targets with credible baseliners and advance the issue of financing the mitigation and adaptation needs of developing countries. ---INFA  

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