ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 18 March 2009

Pakistan Turmoil

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES

By Dr. Savita Pande

(S Asia Div, School Of Intl Studies JNU)

Pakistan’s Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and other deposed judges will be restored tomorrow (21 March) asserted Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani in a televised address on Monday (16 March). Adding, the Federal Government would “soon move a review petition in the Supreme Court against the decision to disqualify the Sharif brothers.”

The basis for the negotiation between the two would be the Charter of Democracy (COD) signed between the PPP and PML (N) in May 2006 pledging to respect democratic norms, upholding the rule of law and depoliticizing the army. Thus, putting to rest all speculation about soldiers once again riding on horseback on Pakistan’s political platform. No matter the country has seen Army rule for 32 of the 61 years of its political history since inception in 1947. Gilani also announced that the ban on rallies would be lifted and all prisoners released.

Undoubtedly, the crisis seems to have subsided in Pakistan, at least for now. Although assurances hardly mean anything, considering Zardari had pledged to restore the judges twice earlier, to cite an instance.

That the assurances this time have been given by Gilani has raised many eye-brows. The plight of Zardari seems weakened as the protesters refused to give in to the Administration’s prohibitory orders. Not only did Nawaz Sharif defy his house arrest but the security forces could not stop his convoy from rallying further.

Clearly, Zardari’s own adamant posture is responsible for his marginalization. Evident from the fact that his Information Minister Sherry Rehman resigned a few days ago when he imposed a ban on Geo TV, notwithstanding Zardari’s assurance to the media that no such ban would be imposed.

The former Chief Minister of Punjab Shahbaz Sharif also disclosed that President Zardari had offered to restore the Punjab Government in return for cancelling the protest march but “we didn’t agree”.

Besides, the Army Chief Kayani is less than keen to take over is more than obvious. His hands are full on the border with Afghanistan and India, more on the former (according to some estimates 1,20,000 troops have been deployed there).

Also, thanks to Gen Mushrraf’s rather prolonged stay and abdication only under pressure has discredited the Army more than ever before. This is not to say anything on the Army Chief’s capability --- he has been Chief of the country’s premier intelligence agency – ISI --- called by many “a State within the State”. The praetorian Army of Pakistan has been best explained as “every State has an army but the Pakistan Army has a State.”

Not only that. The US (Pakistan’s external masters) was not in favour of Army takeover at a time when Washington desperately needed Pak forces to fight their war on the Pak-Afghanistan border. This explains Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s call to Zardari and Sharif not to precipitate the crisis. Endorsing this, the US Embassy in Islamabad stated that this was a “statesman like decision to diffuse a serious confrontation”.

However, Gilani has not said anything about lifting Governor rule in Punjab imposed when the Supreme Court barred both the Sharif brothers from running for office and restoring Shahbaz Sharif’s Government in the Province.

Notably, Nawaz Sharif’s derives his political strength  from Punjab which constitutes more than 55% of Pakistan’s population. His love for the judiciary’s independence is known by what happened in 1997 when his henchmen forcibly entered the Court’s premises. All this in the aftermath of the Chief Justice striking down the 14^th Amendment.

Not that the judiciary itself is anything to write home about. It is an extremely subservient institution, holding every coup and the illegal usurpation of power by the Army Generals’ as legal. Pakistan’s judicial institution is anything, but independent. Justice Iftekar Chaudhry himself became Chief Justice by taking oath under a Provisional Order, a post which became vacant as the then incumbent Chief Justice refused to do so.

It was only when Chaudhry started questioning Musharraf’s Government about missing persons (majority who were from the disturbed Baluchistan province) and the steel mills privatization case that he came to loggerheads with the military Government. Things came to such a pass that Musharraf summoned the Chief Justice and sought his resignation. When  Chaudhry refused, he was sacked.

This became the Lawyers’ Movement, also called the Black Coat Movement that generated the civil society’s disobedient movement. It assumed such proportions that Musharraf had to reinstate Chaudhry only to remove him again when he imposed Emergency fearing the Supreme Court’s judgments on setting aside Musharraf’s manipulative Presidential election.

As Pakistan moved from military dictatorship to civilian democracy, howsoever flawed, thanks to elections being held, facilitated by the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) signed between Mushrraf and the late Benazir Bhutto. Which made possible her return to Pakistan from exile.

Post-Benazir’s assassination and the failure of any Party to get an absolute majority lead to the formation of the PPP-PML coalition Government. This was based on the understanding that Chief Justice Chaudhry and the other judges who were removed extra-Constitutionally would be restored. However, Zardari reneged on his promise fearing  Justice Chaudhry’s opposition to the NRO which had set aside corruption charges against Benazir and himself.

While experts may view the recent developments as “a great victory of Pakistan” which has restored “the self-esteem of the nation”. But, this is farfetched considering that 17 Amendments which load the President with powers remains on the statute. Besides, Sharifs’ review would be heard by the PCO bench that disqualified him.

True, 22 March when a decision is expected is only days away, but for a country
like Pakistan even 48 hours spell unpredictability. To draw conclusions could be politically naive and fallacious, to say the least.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)