Political Diary

New Delhi, 7 March 2009

General Election 2009

ELASTIC LOYALTIES RULE ROOST

By Poonam I Kaushish

Welcome to democratic India’s greatest nautanki. Elections. Where small netas, two-timing jan sevaks and big leaders with bagful of promises are doing the rounds. In their reckless quest for power, amplified by the silly chair called India’s Raj Gaddi. All portraying themselves as safedi ki chamkan compared to their chor rivals who are unfit to rule, leave alone provide good and honest governance.

The magnitude of this dance of democracy is breathtaking. In a population of over 1.3 billion people, 714 million will decide the fate of 543 Lok Sabha MPs. Of these 43 million are new voters, the bulk being in the 18-30 age group. Not only that. There are over 33 crore registered women voters and they are in a majority in six States, Andhra, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Puducherry.

More incredible is the whopping monies being spent on this dazzling razzmatazz. Rs 1500 crores. No jokes, this is what the Press Information Bureau asserts, "The provisional expenditure in the 2004 general elections was around Rs.1,300 crore and is expected to increase further in this year's elections." Clearly, money power rules the roost. Paisa phaikoon tamasha dekho.

However, what is worrisome is that burning national issues like poverty, rising unemployment, financial morass have taken a back seat to stitching the right alliance. Sadly, nobody is talking about their vision and plans to propel the country forward. Neither are they worried about selecting the right candidates on the basis of their character, integrity, honesty et al. All only interested whether their nominee has the right caste, communal and criminal credentials. Win-ability not acceptance holds the key. All want the Taj or to be Kingmaker. Whatever the means.

Importantly, Verdict 2009 like 2004 will be decided by the regional satraps.. Wherein the national parties will play second fiddle to their State allies. For the BJP it will not be Advani but the performance of the NDA CMs, Bihar’s Nitish Kumar, Orissa’s Patnaik, Gujarat’s Modi, MP’s Chouhan, Chhattisgarh’s Raman Singh, Karnataka’s Yediurappa  and Punjab’s Badal.

Ditto, the Congress. How it fares in Andhra, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, will be decided by the UPA’s States CEOs. Likewise, Prakash Karat's ambition to be kingmaker hinges on how well Bengal’s Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Kerala’s Achuthanandan do.

Worse, the State players with their mohalla mentality could lead to a free-for-all. Arguably, on paper, the UPA appears better placed thanks to its string of partners. In J&K it has swapped the PDP for NC, in Tamil Nadu AIDMK’s Jayalalitha is ready with the jaimala to trade places with the DMK. In Bihar, the LJP's Paswan has made up with the RJD’s Lalu and in Maharashtra the Congress-NCP pact continues.  Surprisingly, the Congress is busy placating dost-turned-dushman CPM to forgive, forget and kiss. However, strategist recognise that there is no clear issue that could give the UPA a decisive edge over the NDA or the nascent Third Front.

The Congress-led UPA is banking on its victory in the Assembly polls. It hopes this  would help tide over any anti-incumbency wave in crucial states like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Maharashtra and Andhra which account for 170 seats. Where fortunes of Lalu, Karunanidhi, Chavan and Rajasekhara Reddy are expected to slide. 

Of course, UP remains the enfante terrible and a distant dream. After 8 months the Congress-Samajwadi alliance of convenience is kaput. The dushman-turned-dost-turned-dushman SP has decided to contest 78 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP barring Gandhi citadels Rae Bareili and Amethi,. Even as the Congress blamed Mulayam’s stubbornness against "friendly fights" the curtain came down on Drama "It was nice knowing you".

With both the Dalit-Muslim combine continuing to lean towards the SP and BSP the Congress continues in doldrums. Evident from the Bhadohi Assembly by-poll, in which it came a poor fifth with a mere 2,275 votes. The Party desperately needs life-saving drugs and has no option but piggy-backing on a regional satrap. A toss between swallowing its pride and patching up with the SP now or wait till the results. Both options are difficult. No matter a tie-up would help both and help the UPA's prospects as UP’s 80 seats makes it a key State.

For the BJP its cup of woes is over-flowing. One, it is handicapped by its PM-in-waiting, Advani. At the ripe old age of 81 years he is pitted against the Congress’s Yuvaraj  38-year old Rahul. In an era where the world is gravitating to ‘chilled out’ young leaders a la Obama, Advani, like it or not, just doesn’t have the ‘It’ factor. Irrespective of the gyming and journeying across cyberspace with Gen Y.

Two, its confidence stands dented by its defeat in Delhi and Rajasthan. Three, it is handicapped by a lack of allies. Though it has made up with Haryana’s Chautala, tied with the Assam’s AGP (whereby it could stand to gain in the entire North-east), it is bereft of allies in Andhra, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu and may split with the BJD.

In UP too, all was well till yesterday. It was looking at keeping its upper caste votes in tact following the Congress-SP pact and betterering its tally after aligning with Ajit Singh’s RLD . But the Congress-SP split, could see the upper castes veer towards the Congress. In Punjab and Maharashtra its alliance with the Akali’s and Shiv Sena stays, notwithstanding the SS-NCP flirtation. The BJP also intends making deals with State leaders with elastic loyalties post elections. Jayalalitha, Marandi, North-eastern players etc.

As for the yet-to-be-born (12 March) Third Front the less said the better. A combination of mismatched, opportunistic 8 old hands comprising the four Left parties, AIADMK, TDP, JD(S) and TRS. It’s USP? Provide an alternative to the Congress and BJP. Led by JD-S leader Deve Gowda it is not projecting a Prime Ministerial candidate as it intends adding allies post-poll and wants to keep all guessing. Privately, many have sounded out Mayawati for the PMship. So far she has declined. Both the BJP and Congress have there ears to the ground as they fear it could mar their chances and lead to poaching. But all these calculations could go haywire if Mayawati sweeps UP.

Questionably the buzz across the political spectrum is will Mayawati get enough seats to be a factor at the Centre? The cutthroat battle will see arch-rivals Mayawati and Mulayam slug it out with the BJP forming the rump and the Congress an also-ran. The BSP is repeating its successful Dalit-Brahmin caste formula in the selection of candidates alongwith trying to woo the Muslims. The split between the Congress-SP is manna for Mayawati's Prime Ministerial ambitions as it would avert a Muslim consolidation wherein she would benefit. However, the SP’s victory in the Bhadohi Assembly bypoll has jolted the BSP. Setting the stage for a tough battle.

It is still early days to guess a winner. While Mayawati will most likely gain, one wonders if this is enough to realise her ambitions. Ultimately, the State is not about Mayawati emerging winner but of UP recovering its space in the political matrix.

Additionally five swing States will determine the composition of the alliance which forms the next Government. Namely, UP, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Bihar and Maharashtra which account for 249 Lok Sabha seats and where the alliance dynamics have changed since 2004. 

In Tamil Nadu the MDMK and the Left have deserted the DMK-led alliance and embraced AIADMK. The PMK may follow suit. The UPA is on the back-foot in Bihar with Lalu’s waning popularity and the JD(U)-BJP rising popularity since Nitish Kumar assumed power. Aggravating the problem for the Congress is Pawar’s side deal with the Shiv Sena despite a poll pact, to ensure the Congress’s defeat in constituencies where it is fighting the SS. So that he can emerge numero uno in the gaddi stakes.

In sum, six weeks is a long time in politics. And 42 days in election-mode an eternity. The pendulum will swing from one end to the other, evaluating the fluctuating stock of the candidates depending on their stock preferences. Clearly, an unpredictable poll turf lies ahead. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)