People & Their Problems

New Delhi, 21 February 2009

Global Warming Syndrome

DENGUE, HUNGER, DEATH STALKING US

By Suraj Saraf

“We have now reached a critical stage in which global warming has already seriously impacted lives and health, and this problem will pose an even greater threat to mankind in coming decades if we fail to act now”. A warning by the World Health Organisation which should no longer be ignored.   

Among the potential effects of global warming would be the appearance of mosquitoes in areas where they were previously absent, with the accompanying threat of malaria and dengue fever. Some regions might be at risk of reduced rainfall, causing shortage of fresh water and introducing the danger of waterborne diseases. Millions of people could be at risk of malnutrition and hunger if arable lands became unworkable, is the threat facing mankind.

Clearly, the increasing frequency of summer heat waves in temperate zones and typhoons, hurricanes and floods throughout the world are signs of changing weather and climate pattern. A stunning outcome of the increasing global warming is that already, according to the WHO, 70,000 deaths are being recorded annually in the Asia Pacific region due to health problems.

This apart, according to a recent World Bank study on disease burden of global warming, a more deadly dengue may be its offshoot besides its direct effects like rising sea level, intense cyclones, floods and droughts. The study “Adaptation to climate change” also underlines that higher temperature (between 0.9 and 1.3 degrees Celsius by 2050), will result in changes in water supply, extreme weather events and decline in agriculture that would have significant impact on public health safety.  

Worse, the study underlines that health-related effects of the changes would be more severe for the poor in developing countries. There would be a significant increase in the frequency severity and distribution of dengue fever. The higher temperatures would increase the biting rate of mosquitoes and decrease the incubation period of the dengue virus. The countries where the malaria vector is found, the disease would spread rapidly.

The study went on to underpin that diarrhea disease was likely to become more common in the warmer world, particularly in an environment of decreasing rainfall. Sea level rise could also increase the incidence of diarrhea by disrupting sanitation and water supply. Moreover, cyclones and droughts would lead to an increase in nutrition-related deficiencies. Lose of agriculture and fisheries could result in malnutrition and deterioration in standard of living while the loss of land and infrastructure could lead to crowding conditions, exacerbating problems of urban management (that would result in increased disease burden).

Some months back, the WHO in a study had underscored that climate change caused by industrial emissions already accounts for at least five million cases of illness and over 1,50,000 deaths annually. Soon after a study published in the reputed journal Nature, emphasized that the World’s poorest countries face a dramatic rise in death from disease and malnutrition as a result of climate change.

The scientists had reached this conclusion after constructing a map showing how climate change will affect different regions of the World by making infectious diseases more rampant and damaging local agriculture. The picture that emerged showed the least- wealthy countries, with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, as the most vulnerable. They were in for a doubling of the deaths from malaria, diarrhea diseases and malnutrition by 2030 as a result of climate change.

The scientists had created the map by collating published studies linking disease and agriculture to temperature and weather variations. Another study had shown that in certain South American countries a one degree C rise in temperature caused 8 per cent increase in diarrheal diseases.

“The map shows that the health impact of climate changed proportionately affects poorer countries that in my view have no responsibility for global warming. It’s completely unethical and it can not be ignored,” the study’s lead scientist Jonathan Pats, at the University of Wisconsin warns.

Regions at the highest risk included coastlines of Pacific and Indian Oceans and Sub-Saharan Africa. The study emphasises that more resources to combat disease in poor countries, combined with long-term cuts in greenhouse gas emissions were needed to limit the effect of global warming. Undoubtedly, climate change exacerbates problems poor countries face from disease, largely because bacteria spread more rapidly, causing greater contamination of food and water.

Forecasts of climate change also predict more erratic weather patterns for many countries, wreaking havoc with subsistence farming and adding to the burden of malnutrition (and consequent burden of disease).

In the recent past, urban air quality has become a major concern. According to the WHO, about six lakh Asians die prematurely each year due to air pollution. The report finds that air quality in most cities exceeds international guidelines for protection of human health. It observes that the gains achieved through reduced vehicle emissions (that contribute much to the global warming) are offset by the rise in the volume of vehicles. Rapid urbanization, increasing motorization and increasing energy consumption are some of the challenges that Asian cities face.

Air quality management systems in these cities are not adequate, is WHO verdict. According to another international collaboration report on the subject joined by United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), air pollution remains a threat to health and quality of life in most Asian cities. The report had looked at air quality and its management in 22 Asian cities. The situation was serious in New Delhi, Kolkata, Beijing, Dhaka, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta and Kathmandu.

It is pertinent to mention here that some other important recent studies have also highlighted the spreading disease burden resulting from climate change and global warming. The affected areas are particularly Asia, including India.

These studies include the one by the Australian Government’s Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organisation, which has underscored that millions of people in the Asia-Pacific region, including India could be forced out from their homes, suffer increasing diseases, cyclones and floods, caused by the global warming.

“Chronic food and water insecurity and epidemic disease may impede economic development in some nations,” is clearly on the cards. The temperatures are likely to rise more quickly in the arid areas of Northern Pakistan and India and Western China, it warned.

Another such a grim report by Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change warns “…Water scarcity will in turn affect the health of vast populations, with a rise in waterborne diseases such as cholera. Other diseases such as dengue fever and malaria are also expected to rise…mortality due to heat-related deaths will climb, with the poor, the elderly and daily wage earners and agricultural workers suffering a rise in heat-related deaths.” ---INFA

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