Round The World

New Delhi, 10 February 2009   

South Asian Challenge

KEY TO OBAMA’S SUCCESS

By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra, JNU

All eyes of the South Asians are on the Obama Administration's move towards events and issues of the region. Soon after assuming office, President Obama appointed Richard Holbrook as a Special Envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan.

This single appointment spoke more loudly about things to come than any other statement made so far on South Asia by Obama's officials. Holbrook is a renowned US diplomat who has been credited with successfully negotiating the Dayton Accord that brought about an end to the Bosnian conflict in mid-1990s. Holbrook has been nominated seven times for the much coveted Nobel Peace Prize, but yet to get one. There is speculation that if he manages to bring about a solution to the Kashmir issue, he may as well be bestowed with the Nobel Peace Prize.

However, more and more such speculations will only make things harder for Holbrook. India just does not want any third party intervention in Kashmir. When news stories appeared about possible appointment of former US President Bill Clinton as a Special Envoy to South Asia with responsibility to handle the Kashmir issue, India reacted angrily against such a possibility.

No other US President was able to befriend the Indian masses as did Clinton during his visit to India in March 2000, setting a new mile stone in US-Indian relations. His successor certainly did more in concrete terms what Clinton had visualized to do for India—establishment of a durable strategic partnership. But his unilateral foreign policy moves had become unpopular not only in the US but also in India and around the globe. Moreover, Hillary Clinton's appointment as Secretary of State subsequently would have facilitated Bill Clinton's function as a Special Envoy.

Why did then New Delhi make its displeasure so open. It was because President-elect Obama had once sought to link the Kashmir issue with Pakistan and Afghanistan issue. As and when Clinton's name stopped going around and Holbrook was appointed as the Special Envoy, the Obama Administration respected the Indian sensitivities and dropped India from Holbrook's area of responsibility.

India has had a valid point on this issue. We all know that one factor links Kashmir with Pakistan and Afghanistan and that is terrorism. Had Obama administration spoken about this linkage, no major damage would have taken place. But linking the resolution of the Kashmir problem with solving the Afghan problem was a horrendous mistake. Washington, of course, realizes that the US military intervention in Afghanistan had nothing do with Kashmir issue. It is also an indubitable fact that unruly conditions in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province have nothing do with Pakistan's claim over Kashmir. The issue that needs to be tackled is terrorism.

For terrorism to be tackled successfully Pakistan needs to be set properly. It is now an open secret that Pakistan has become the epicenter of global terrorist activities. Terrorism in India, Europe, America and Africa has footprints of Pakistan either directly or indirectly.

Secondly, Pakistan was unable to keep East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, with the country. Moreover, it has never been able to run the administration in the region bordering Afghanistan; Islamabad has also recurring problems in Sindh and Baloochistan. In the backdrop of all these facts, Islamabad uses Kashmir as a rallying point for national unity. It refuses to learn lessons from its failure to extend its misrule into Kashmir by resorting to terror tactics since 1989.

Thirdly, Pakistan itself has an utterly divided political/ruling elite that provides ample space to terrorist and extremist groups to successfully operate from its soil. Prolonged military rule in the country has never been able to institute social welfare measures or promote economic growth, whereas brief intervals of civilian administration have often made matters worse.

Fourthly, the most dangerous dimension of the Pakistan State is its nuclear arsenal. If Pakistan fails as a state, its nuclear weapons cannot protect it. The former Soviet Union disintegrated despite its huge nuclear arsenals with thousands of nuclear warheads. But the nuclear arsenal in Pakistan is most vulnerable to theft or physical control by non-state actors than any other such arsenal anywhere in the world.

Pakistani elite in the 1990s sought to link Kashmir with the nuclear issue and argued that if Kashmir issue was resolved, it would have no need for a nuclear arsenal. Washington temporarily bought this idea. Recently, the British Foreign Secretary sought to link  Kashmir issue with terrorism, saying the resolution of Kashmir problem would lead to end of terrorism in India. The US effort to bring about a linkage of Afghanistan issue with Kashmir is third such effort.

The crux of the problem now is not Kashmir, but Pakistan. The ruling class in Pakistan, both military and civilian, is obsessed with Kashmir. This obsession is due to an underlying fear that Pakistan would loose the rationale of its existence with out the Kashmir issue. But then this is a downright misperception. Ambassador Holbrook must use his time and energy to convince Pakistan's ruling class of this reality.

Many Pakistanis do not know that terrorism today is a bigger menace for them than for the Kashmiri people. Their government used terrorism as an instrument of policy against the Kashmiri people. But as it always happens the same terrorism now threatens Pakistan's stability and development. According to a Delhi-based think tank, terrorism-related deaths in Kashmir were less than 550 in 2008, a big climb down from more than 4, 000 in 2001. The situation in Pakistan is just the reverse. In 2003, less than 200 Pakistanis lost their lives in terrorist activities. In 2008, the figure is more than 6, 000!

The new Obama Administration must take this reality into consideration, if its real intention is to solve the Afghan problem and not speak of resolving the Kashmir dispute. ---INFA

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