Events & Issues

New Delhi, 13 January 2009

Challenges Before Omar

HALT  REGIONAL & RELIGIOUS DIVIDE

By Sant Kumar Sharma

Once the euphoria of Government formation settles down, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah will have to take things head on to prove his credentials in Jammu and Kashmir. Clearly, it will be a tough call, tougher than anything he has done so far.  

Undoubtedly, the chief ministership of the trouble-torn State has never been a crown of roses. Additionally, at this juncture it is even more cumbersome due to events of the recent past. The sharp division that the whole State witnessed just a couple of months ago in the wake of the Amarnath land row has not vanished. Worse, the divide is not only regional, but deeply religious too.

The slogans of `Bam, Bam Bhole’ in Jammu and separatist `Azaadi’ slogans in Kashmir are sharply etched in the memories of the masses of the respective regions. Reconciliation between the all-powerful Kashmir region and newly-assertive Jammu has not taken place after the bitter fight so far. It is, however, an absolute must for any meaningful movement forward in the State. Or else, the fear is that eruption on another emotive issue could tear the social fabric of J&K asunder yet again. Thus, effecting reconciliation is the first and foremost challenge before the new Government.

As of now, the signals emanating from the National Conference and the Congress that the two simply want to leave the bitter memories of the Amarnath land row behind them is worrisome. Without even attempting or doing something substantial to bridge the regional and religious divide. They must remember that the sharp polarization is not just a bad dream, but a bitter reality that cannot be wished away.

More so, when the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with 11 legislators in the newly-constituted Legislative Assembly, will be more than a handful for the new Government. As will be the 21-members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which paddles `soft separatism’ as its USP and targets the NC.

In all likelihood, in the coming days the BJP agenda in the State will become more hardline Hindu, just as the PDP is all set to take diametrically opposite and radical postures to garner support in the Valley. Sandwiched between these two extreme positions, with top class legislators sitting in the opposition, it is anybody’s guess as to how comfortable Omar’s position will be in the Assembly. Or even in the day-to-day functioning of the Government.

In fact, his entry into the Assembly could well be a baptism by fire, as the fiery Mehbooba Mufti is unlikely to give any quarter to the new chief minister. She will of course, be ably guided by her father, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, considered (and not without good reasons) a past-master in intrigue. Besides, the two will be supported by ‘brilliant’ Muzaffar Hussein Beigh, Basharat Bukhari and others. 

Amidst all this, the big challenge of reconciliation cannot be wished away. Omar seems to be aware of this pitfall and has already made an announcement to set up an inquiry commission to look into allegations of discrimination voiced by the regions. Playing safe, he has declared that the commission will be headed by a retired judge of the Supreme Court, from outside the State.

On ground zero, such a declaration or pious intentions will have little meaning if they are not carried through with due diligence and devotion. As far as the Jammu region is concerned, it does not have any good memories of such commissions. Omar’s latest announcement is already being dismissed cynically as an attempt to hoodwink the `Jammu people’.

The second big challenge before the new Government is the highly-emotive issue of delimitation of Assembly as also the Lok Sabha constituencies. It is an extremely divisive subject as both the NC and the Congress had a diametrically opposite stance during the Assembly elections. The latter had in its manifesto said that it will work to set up a delimitation commission and accused the PDP, as also the NC, of blocking its efforts for a fair process.

This is so, because there is widespread disparity in the distribution of voters in the Lok Sabha constituencies of the State. In an area of 26,293 sq km, the Jammu region has only two Lok Sabha seats, whereas the geographically far smaller Kashmir, with an area of 15,948 sq km, has been electing three MPs.

During the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the Jammu region had about 32 lakh voters, more than Kashmir region’s below 30 lakh. The Jammu and Udhampur parliamentary constituencies in the Jammu region had 18.5 lakh voters and 13.5 lakh voters respectively. The Lok Sabha constituencies of Srinagar, Anantnag and Baramulla (in the Kashmir region), on the other hand, had 10.50 lakh, 9.98 lakh and 9.40 lakh voters, respectively.

Incidentally, the area of the Jammu and Udhampur Lok Sabha constituencies is 7,401 sq km and 18,892 sq km respectively. As against this, the constituencies in the Kashmir region are far smaller: Srinagar (3,599 sq km), Anantnag (5,382 sq km) and Baramulla (6,967 sq km).

Given these stark inequities, the leadership in the Jammu region is now trying to stir the pot and work towards a more even and equitable distribution of voters and areas among various constituencies. This is something the Kashmir leaders are firmly keen to avoid and delay. In the run-up to the ensuing Lok Sabha elections, these facts may come into sharper focus, which have the potential of polarizing the regions once again.

If that happens, the two regions are likely to see hardening of postures. Worse, resultant disturbances could greatly impinge on the stability of the Government, which in turn could affect the already fragile economy. It is no secret that the economy and State’s finances, are even at the best of times precariously poised. Trying to stabilize the finances, (dependent on the Centre’s largesse), in the midst of an all-round meltdown, will be a Herculean task. Remember, a reduction in the flow of tourists last summer had led to colossal economic losses. 

In the midst of all its priorities, the Government has no choice but to call a budget session soon and spell out its priorities, in black and white. Simultaneously, reconciliation between the Jammu and the Kashmir regions, Pandits and Muslims and mainstream politicians and the separatists will need to be undertaken.

All the more, because following 26/11, it is politically incorrect to even consider improving ties with Pakistan. However, the down side is that without any perceptible and abiding improvement in relations with its neighbour, not much good can happen in J&K. If only, the new Government could take an initiative, immediately or in the foreseeable future. Sadly, it can’t. ---INFA

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