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Mumbai Attack Fallout:WHITHER INDO-PAK RELATIONS?, by Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra,30 December 2008 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 30 December 2008

Mumbai Attack Fallout

WHITHER INDO-PAK RELATIONS?

 By Prof. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

After years of considerable improvement in India-Pakistan relations, the South Asian peace process has entered a phase of uncertainty. Doubt, indecision, hesitation and apprehensions are in the air. Who is responsible? India? Pakistan? Terrorists? None or all?

Clearly, all are responsible, to varying degrees. The maximum credit (blame?) for the prevailing chaos in the political climate of South Asia goes to non-State actors and in this case Pakistan-based terror networks. Undoubtedly, it is a time for celebrations for the non-State actors, who have been running amok with the nation-States appearing completely powerless.

The 26/11 terrorist assaults on Mumbai took place under the attentive glaze of the visual media. However, the Pakistani Government is asking for credible evidence. The Indian intelligence agencies have concluded that the Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit, carried out the attacks with the connivance of the ISI. The US, British and several other intelligence agencies have concurred with the finding of the Indian agencies, yet the Pakistan Government is not satisfied with the evidence. One captured terrorist has admitted that he is a Pakistani. His relatives from a Pakistani village have acknowledged his identity. Yet the Asif Zardari Government wants more evidence!

Why is the Pakistan Government so adamant? Simply because of the powerlessness of the ruling establishment to accept the fact that elements of the country’s governing structure have had a hand in the Mumbai mayhem.  But, the Government cannot admit so for two reasons. First, it is under pressure from the very elements who apparently sided with the Lashkar agents. The Government could be easily blamed for siding with the country's acknowledged enemy against some of its own citizens. Second, it would amount to confessing before the international community that Pakistan has a failed government.

But then India too comes across as powerless. More than a month after the terror attacks, which have been compared to 9/11 in the US, it has not been able to take any firm and concrete action against the perpetrators. At best, New Delhi seems to be helplessly asking Pakistan to do something about the non-State actors. Sadly, the Government appears to be satisfied by just making strong demands and appreciating diplomatic support from the major powers such as the US, UK and Germany.

However, let us remember that the US and its European allies have been waging a war against terrorists in Afghanistan and a part of Pakistan, not to make India safer, but to ensure against further terrorist onslaughts against their own territories and interests. It is perhaps foolhardy on our part to expect any concrete action from the Pakistani Government against those responsible for 26/11.

Thus, it seems that the non-State actors have been having a field day thanks to the helplessness and powerlessness of the South Asian States. Pakistan cannot act because the non-State actors have attacked its adversary and India cannot act as it could lead to a full-scale war with its neighbour. This war, people fear, could escalate into a nuclear confrontation in the region.

Going by its past record, the Government will definitely behave responsibly. And, if one makes rational calculations, India has conventional superiority vis-a-vis Pakistan and thus does not need a nuclear bomb to protect its interests. But, Pakistan's track record in responsible behaviour is highly unsatisfactory. Its consistent failure in promoting secessionism in India and encouraging communalism through sponsoring Islamic terrorism has brought nothing but frustration to successive civilian and military governments.

Moreover, Islamabad has been under pressure since 9/11 to take concrete steps that are interpreted within Pakistan as anti-Islam and anti-people. It has steadily emerged in recent years as a failed State with nuclear weapons. The only way Pakistanis think they could unite is through war-mongering against India. And, that out of sheer desperation, the Pakistani Government is more likely to escalate a confrontation with India to the nuclear threshold.

It is this trepidation that induces Washington, London and other capitals to put diplomatic pressure on New Delhi to refrain from taking strong measures that could lead to a war between India and Pakistan. The failure of the NATO and the US troops to bring order to Afghanistan after more than seven years of 9/11, the resilience of the Al Qaeda and the resurgence of the Taliban are clear indicators that even the major powers are toothless in tackling the reign of terror in India and its neighbourhood.

Is there then no way out of this maze? Is the future of international relations and global security environment going to be dominated by non-State actors? Have nation-nation States become irrelevant to sustain human security?

There is no denying the fact that the only country responsible for most of the mess in India is Pakistan. If this country is handled properly, dastardly terrorist incidence in India will be few and far between. However, Maoism, Naxalism and other sources of international security threats will still remain to be dealt with. But unless India is able to handle Pakistan-exported version of terrorism, the local ones will only proliferate.

Certainly, India should not provoke a war with Pakistan. But what it can and should do has regrettably not been even thought about. First, India should call off all dimensions of dialogue with Pakistan. Resumption of composite dialogue should be conditional upon Islamabad's willingness to extend the desired cooperation in reigning in anti-India terror networks. Secondly, India should close down its High Commission in Islamabad and ask the Pakistani Government to do likewise. Thirdly, all contacts should be ended and communications should be conducted through a third party. Fourthly, India should ask for dismissal of Pakistani membership in SAARC. Fifthly, all kinds of economic exchanges with Pakistan should be instantly halted.

Undoubtedly, these measures are extreme. And there cost too will be quite high. However, compared to war expenses these pale into insignificance. The measures need to be taken as these will in all probability send a more robust message to Pakistan and its allies and in no way will constitute a violation of any international law.  ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)




 

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