Open Forum

New Delhi, 19 December 2008

Jammu & Kashmir Poll

BALLOT SCORES OVER BULLETS

By Sant Kumar Sharma

In Jammu and Kashmir elections the spotlight for once is not on wanton violence, but on the high polling percentage. This can only be a welcome change, however short-lived it may prove, on a later date.  In fact, the focus is far more on the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attack and the gun-carriers in the State seem to be biding their time, deciding to lie low for now and not invite a harsh response from the government.

On Wednesday last, in the sixth and penultimate round of polling in the troubled State, 16 constituencies recorded a voter turnout of almost 66 per cent . More significantly, polling remained peaceful and no untoward incident was reported from anywhere in these constituencies spread over five districts. These included Kishtwar, Ramban and Doda in the Jammu region. Newly-created district of Kulgam and Anantnag in the Kashmir valley also saw voters turn out in large numbers to exercise their franchise.

During the 2002 Assembly elections as also the 1996 elections, it was almost routine to hear of candidates being killed, mostly independents or even some owing allegiance to mainstream parties. In addition, security forces personnel too were targeted in large numbers by the militants. This time around, the elections have remained, by and large, peaceful, till date with the militants appearing to be on the back foot. Importantly, the voters have clearly defied the separatists’ diktat to boycott the polls.

Remember, these elections are being held in the aftermath of the Amarnath land row, with the Jammu region and the Kashmir region sharply divided on the issue. Analysts had compared the rallies during the height of the land row in Kashmir to the initial days of uprising in Kashmir in the 90s. They had also expressed fears that holding of elections at such a time would in all probability lead to very low voter participation.

These fears have been belied. The electorate has defied predictions and the separatists’ threats. They came out to vote despite the severe cold, with snowfall and rain sweeping these constituencies a couple of days earlier. This phase decides the fate of two chief ministers, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed and Ghulam Nabi Azad..

It is more or less apparent that the State is going to witness one of the highest polling percentages ever-recorded during these Assembly elections. The last round of polling remains, December 24, during which 21 Assembly constituencies spread over districts of Jammu, Srinagar and Samba will go to vote.  The way in which the election campaigning has been going on in the Jammu and newly-created Samba district, it appears that the polling in these areas will be high, unlike in the past when the voters of these mostly urban areas have showed scant regard to their vote.

Of course, there is still a question mark on the polling percentage in Srinagar district, a stronghold of separatist and secessionist leaders of various hues. In 2002, this district had recorded the lowest polling percentage and several Assembly segments had witnessed less than 10 per cent votes cast. The overall percentage of voting recorded in Srinagar was 11.17 per cent. Even this was made up because of the comparatively better percentage of voting recorded in Ganderbal (35.20 per cent) and Kangan (52.02 per cent) segments. This time around, Ganderbal and Kangan have been carved out into a separate district of Ganderbal.

The other eight constituencies of Srinagar district had recorded less than 10 per cent voting, with Amirakadal constituency witnessing only 3.06 voting. Of the 74,442 voters who were eligible to cast their vote in Amirakadal, only 2,280 had exercised their franchise. Congress candidate Mohammed Shafi Bhat had won by polling only 1,163 votes!

The distinction of winning an Assembly election with the smallest number of votes in 2002 had gone to independent candidate Raman Mattoo, who polled only 587 votes in Habbakadal segment.  Likewise, Batmaloo had recorded four per cent voting, Khanyar only 4.21 per cent, Idgah only 4.74 per cent, Zadibal only 4.78 per cent, Hazratbal only 7.11 per cent and Sonawar also narrowly missed the double digit mark as it saw a polling percentage of only 9.96.

But this time around National Conference patron Farooq Abdullah’s presence in the field is likely to boost up the polling percentage in Hazratbal and Sonawar constituencies. Besides, absence of violence in the first six phases is also likely to encourage voters to come out in good numbers during the last phase. The south Kashmir district of Anantnag has been the home turf of the Muftis. In fact, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had won most of its seats in 2002 Assembly elections from south Kashmir only.

Noorabad constituency in Kulgam district recorded a turnout of over 72 per cent, unprecedented when we compare it to the past three elections held in 2002, 1996 and 1987. Mufti’s trusted aide and senior PDP leader Abdul Aziz Zargar is contesting from this constituency and hoping to make it two in a row. He trounced the NC candidate Sakina Ittoo, who along with his supporters alleged that the PDP leader had used its alleged contacts with militants to browbeat them during canvassing.

Interestingly, Zargar’s name was linked to the Akshardham temple attack in Gujarat but nothing concrete had come out of these allegations and insinuations. At one time, it was said that some of the militants who had participated in this attack were known to Zargar.

Kulgam constituency, from where Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Mohammed Yusuf Tarigami has been elected twice in succession recorded a high of 60 per cent voting. Homeshalibug recorded 49%, Devsar 58%, Anantnag 37%, Dooru 69%, Kokernag 57%, Shangus 67%, Bijebehera 57% and Pahalgam recorded 56%.

In three districts lying to south of mighty Pir Panjal Mountains, Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban also, the polling percentage was very high. Kishtwar Assembly constituency recorded a whopping 75% turnout, remote Inderwal 72%, Doda 70%, Bhaderwah 65%, Ramban 64% and Banihal 63%. In comparison, the final poll percentage in the 2002 poll were far less in these 16 Assembly constituencies: Noorabad 23.41%, Kulgam 24.40%, Homeshalibug 22.93%, Devsar 35.56%, Anantnag 7.16%, Dooru 40.48%, Kokernag 15.27%, Shangus 25.40%, Bijbehara 16.67%, Pahalgam 33.02%, Kishtwar 54.82%, Inderwal 56.61%¸ Doda 55.54%, Bhadarwah 54.25%, Ramban 57.71% and Banihal Assembly constituency 40.55% voter turnout.

For Noorabad, the polling percentage has shown more than a three-fold increase between 2002 and this time--from 23.41% to over 72%. For Anantnag constituency, the voter participation has risen more than five-fold, from a dismal 7.16% to 37.03%.

With Pakistan facing unprecedented international pressure, the militants’ guns eerily silent and an unprecedented  voter participation in Jammu & Kashmir,  will the situation veer around  to better days in the State? Only time will tell. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)