Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 30 December 2008
Nuclear Deal & Aftermath
TAKE ISSUE TO PEOPLE THIS POLL
By Dr MM Kapur
The recent Assembly elections have clearly shown that issues
such as the Indo-US nuclear deal and internal security, which have hogged
headlines for months were not poll issues for the aam aadmi. These were seen more as national issues which should be
addressed in the forthcoming General elections, slated for April/May.
What is of particular interest is whether and how our political
parties would take the nuclear pact to the people, since it is already a done
deal. The Parties must remember that the value of the deal for the aam aadmi continues to be elusive like
the bird in the bush and remains of doubtful value in the short and medium
term. It is our hope that some benefit
may trickle down to the aam aadmi in
the long term.
The reason for the desperate hurry to sign the agreement has
little to do with the immediate needs of the aam aadmi and lies elsewhere with business and political needs at
home and in the US.
To be able to asses the precise need
for the deal we have to examine our nuclear energy generation programme
progress so far. India
has its nuclear power plants in operation, run by the Nuclear Power Corporation
of India (NPCI). The power generated today is 4120 mw. The Corporation plans to
install six more plants to generate additional 3160 mw and by 2020 take it up
to 20,000 mw. The Planning Commission has said that at best the deal will raise
our nuclear power generation from 3% to 7%, which does not sound like a break
through.
The Uranium used in the plants is from Indian uranium
reserves which are assessed at between 80,000-1,12,000 metric tonnes. We have
utilised 478 metric tonnes per year in our power plants and our nuclear arsenal
requires an additional 32 metric tonnes. If we were to quadruple our energy
output we would use up 2,000 metric tonnes per year. At this rate, uranium
reserves would meet our power generation needs for the next 40-50 years.
Our nuclear research in fast breeder reactor (FBR) using
thorium reserves would multiply nuclear fuel potential manifold. All these
needs would be met by the use of our own internal reserves, and the pool of our
own trained manpower. There would, thus, be no need of submitting to
inspections, test moratoriums, and annual certifications by other nations or
the looming threat of recall of nuclear material.
The deal is indeed a great triumph for the US business community, which stands to gain
entry to $100bn power generation industry in India. There are, however, obstacles
to the US vendors’ entry to the Indian power generation market. The US firms
would like a cap on third party risk cover in case of accidents, acts of
terror, saboteurs etc.
These are real and live dangers known to all of us, who are well-versed
with media reports. India has so far not signed the Convention of Supplementary
Compensation. This is a global fund for victims of nuclear disasters The Government
of India’s action in these areas is bound to be watched closely. A major high
point of this deal has been the NSG waiver. We need to exploit it for and advanced power plant
design and building contracts with France and the UK.
The pace of our progress should be guided by our
installation of enhanced security apparatus to protect these high-value assets
and the aam aadmi. If our borders are
secured against illegal immigration, and the influx of men and material
tightened we could reach zero tolerance of terrorist acts. However, this goal
has eluded successive Governments in the 60 years of our Independence. The will
and the resolve seem to be missing. If our leaders could attain this goal, this
would be the best investment towards our regional, global power status and
erase the soft State image.
In the long run, internal security would attract further
investments and ensure progress. This systemic change would make symmetric cooperation
with the US possible and meaningful within our lifetime.
It would be prudent for us not to import nuclear plants from
the US under the deal till the position is clear and the ambiguities removed
probably by the new administrations installed in both countries. In the meantime,
it must be made clear that our strategic goals will be on their planned course
and related to our national security requirements.
The cooperation with the US must provide access to computer
simulation as a path to testing. This may take care of our needs towards
maintaining a credible deterrence for a few years.
In case there is no clarity in our agreements with NSG and
the US, as a sovereign country we should proceed with our available nuclear energy
plans using indigenous nuclear energy fuel and inspections by the IAEC. And to meet
our emerging energy requirements we must make full use of alternate renewable and
non-renewable environmentally acceptable energy sources side by side with an indigenous
nuclear programme.
There can be no economic, regional or global super power
status without first installing a robust and alert internal security system.
There is need for a broad consensus to be built around our national identity
and national goals. These values and identities emerge from ongoing dialogue
and debate between the Government of the day, political parties and the aam aadmi.
Regrettably, this approach was not adopted before the pursuit
of the nuclear deal was embarked upon. It was hyped as a one Party miracle
without taking the polity and the people into confidence. This resulted in a
lack of resonance and widely prevalent suspicion in the minds of the political
parties and cross sections of the people.
The statements in Parliament, the debate and the manner of
obtaining votes have not reassured the aam
aadmi. One earnestly hopes that the coming elections will provide space for
taking this issue to the people. Such a debate will empower the newly-elected
members to examine the deal and improve it to render the aam aadmi as a beneficiary.
Clearly, the deal impacts India’s sovereignty, military
links, foreign policy and economy. The future
role of the country post the nuclear deal will depend upon an in-depth review
and redefining of its contents to include balance and parity in obligation for
the signing parties. --INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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