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Nuclear Deal & Aftermath:TAKE ISSUE TO PEOPLE THIS POLL, by Dr MM Kapur,30 December 2008 Print E-mail

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 30 December 2008

Nuclear Deal & Aftermath

TAKE ISSUE TO PEOPLE THIS POLL

By Dr MM Kapur

The recent Assembly elections have clearly shown that issues such as the Indo-US nuclear deal and internal security, which have hogged headlines for months were not poll issues for the aam aadmi. These were seen more as national issues which should be addressed in the forthcoming General elections, slated for April/May. 

What is of particular interest is whether and how our political parties would take the nuclear pact to the people, since it is already a done deal. The Parties must remember that the value of the deal for the aam aadmi continues to be elusive like the bird in the bush and remains of doubtful value in the short and medium term.  It is our hope that some benefit may trickle down to the aam aadmi in the long term.

The reason for the desperate hurry to sign the agreement has little to do with the immediate needs of the aam aadmi and lies elsewhere with business and political needs at home and in the US.

To be able to asses the precise need for the deal we have to examine our nuclear energy generation programme progress so far. India has its nuclear power plants in operation, run by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCI). The power generated today is 4120 mw. The Corporation plans to install six more plants to generate additional 3160 mw and by 2020 take it up to 20,000 mw. The Planning Commission has said that at best the deal will raise our nuclear power generation from 3% to 7%, which does not sound like a break through.

The Uranium used in the plants is from Indian uranium reserves which are assessed at between 80,000-1,12,000 metric tonnes. We have utilised 478 metric tonnes per year in our power plants and our nuclear arsenal requires an additional 32 metric tonnes. If we were to quadruple our energy output we would use up 2,000 metric tonnes per year. At this rate, uranium reserves would meet our power generation needs for the next 40-50 years.

Our nuclear research in fast breeder reactor (FBR) using thorium reserves would multiply nuclear fuel potential manifold. All these needs would be met by the use of our own internal reserves, and the pool of our own trained manpower. There would, thus, be no need of submitting to inspections, test moratoriums, and annual certifications by other nations or the looming threat of recall of nuclear material.

The deal is indeed a great triumph for the US business community, which stands to gain entry to $100bn power generation industry in India. There are, however, obstacles to the US vendors’ entry to the Indian power generation market. The US firms would like a cap on third party risk cover in case of accidents, acts of terror, saboteurs etc.

These are real and live dangers known to all of us, who are well-versed with media reports. India has so far not signed the Convention of Supplementary Compensation. This is a global fund for victims of nuclear disasters The Government of India’s action in these areas is bound to be watched closely. A major high point of this deal has been the NSG waiver.  We need to exploit it for and advanced power plant design and building contracts with France and the UK.

The pace of our progress should be guided by our installation of enhanced security apparatus to protect these high-value assets and the aam aadmi. If our borders are secured against illegal immigration, and the influx of men and material tightened we could reach zero tolerance of terrorist acts. However, this goal has eluded successive Governments in the 60 years of our Independence. The will and the resolve seem to be missing. If our leaders could attain this goal, this would be the best investment towards our regional, global power status and erase the soft State image.

In the long run, internal security would attract further investments and ensure progress. This systemic change would make symmetric cooperation with the US possible and meaningful within our lifetime.

It would be prudent for us not to import nuclear plants from the US under the deal till the position is clear and the ambiguities removed probably by the new administrations installed in both countries. In the meantime, it must be made clear that our strategic goals will be on their planned course and related to our national security requirements.

The cooperation with the US must provide access to computer simulation as a path to testing. This may take care of our needs towards maintaining a credible deterrence for a few years.

In case there is no clarity in our agreements with NSG and the US, as a sovereign country we should proceed with our available nuclear energy plans using indigenous nuclear energy fuel and inspections by the IAEC. And to meet our emerging energy requirements we must make full use of alternate renewable and non-renewable environmentally acceptable energy sources side by side with an indigenous nuclear programme.

There can be no economic, regional or global super power status without first installing a robust and alert internal security system. There is need for a broad consensus to be built around our national identity and national goals. These values and identities emerge from ongoing dialogue and debate between the Government of the day, political parties and the aam aadmi.

Regrettably, this approach was not adopted before the pursuit of the nuclear deal was embarked upon. It was hyped as a one Party miracle without taking the polity and the people into confidence. This resulted in a lack of resonance and widely prevalent suspicion in the minds of the political parties and cross sections of the people.

The statements in Parliament, the debate and the manner of obtaining votes have not reassured the aam aadmi. One earnestly hopes that the coming elections will provide space for taking this issue to the people. Such a debate will empower the newly-elected members to examine the deal and improve it to render the aam aadmi as a beneficiary.

Clearly, the deal impacts India’s sovereignty, military links, foreign policy and economy.  The future role of the country post the nuclear deal will depend upon an in-depth review and redefining of its contents to include balance and parity in obligation for the signing parties. --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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