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Open Forum
Global Inflation Sticky: JOB CUTS SLOW GROWTH, By Shivaji Sarkar, 27 March 2023 |
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Economic Highlights
New
Delhi, 27 March 2023
Global Inflation Sticky
JOB CUTS SLOW GROWTH
By Shivaji Sarkar
The typical Indian scenario is hit
by inflation, global job cuts, bank crisis, agitated farmers and passing the Union
Budget and other sanctions amid pandemonium. Stickier politics in the wake of Congress
leader Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification from the Lok Sabha may have its cost on
overall functioning if it does not turn out to be a whimper.
There is nothing technically wrong.
A discussion paves way for solutions. The budget has 45 amendments increasing
overall tax collections. It is likely to make living costlier, but no one
discusses the price hikes. Inflation despite a lower rate now is pre-pandemic
problem. It is misconstrued as a mere problem of purchasing power. It impacts a
government the most, being the largest spender. Evolving ways to check it could
help the government in reducing expenses, debt, and accelerate welfare and
development schemes. Inflation is bleeding the government despite slump in
Brent crude prices to $70 from $90, a few weeks back. Co-chair of G20 Framework
Working Group V A Nageswaram says that in several countries’ inflation is
stickier and growth would remain around 6.5 percent.
The government feels upbeat that
growth would remain around 7 percent. Now it needs to check inflation, not an
easy task in an uncertain world. It’s not an easy task amid job cuts by
IT giants like Accenture --19000, including 7000 in India, Amazon -- 9000 and
Meta 11000 in March 2023 in addition to their earlier staff reduction. It
impinges on the domestic IT companies as well. The privatised economy is
finding creating jobs not easy.
The global economy finds governments
slipping in a world that is controlled by private capital. Banks almost all
over the West are uncomfortable with periodic siphoning. The US banks do not
have a good record. The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)
closed 465 failed banks from 2008 to 2012. In contrast, in the five years
prior to 2008, only 10 banks failed. At the end of 2022, the US banking
industry had a total of about $620 billion in unrealized losses as a result of
investments weakened by rising interest rates. Post 2012, 67 banks have
collapsed till 2019.
Credit Suisse is not the only
European bank to suffer. There could be many more. At the stock market banks
remain unimpressive. Indian banks took a few haircuts due to failure of some
large loans not being repaid. There have been mergers and recapitalisation till
a few years back. Defaulting on payment, write-offs are the common aspect that
afflicts the banking industry everywhere. India is not absolutely insulated.
Life Insurance Corporation and a group of some banks have lost a tidy sum due
to crashes.
Inflation remains a key issue. The
interest rate hike is a reality. As this happens anywhere, the inflation
indicator may shoot up in India. At 6.44 percent rise consumer price index
(CPI) is beyond the Reserve Bank of India tolerance level. Last year, CPI hit
the highest of 7.79 percent in April, and WPI reached 15.88 percent in May
2022. Compared to inflation in February 2020, CPI is down 0.14 percent, whereas
WPI is up 1.59 percent. That is an indicator of over three years of
inflationary trend. The WPI at 2.95 percent in January and 2.75 percent in
February 2023 looks at a low level. It is over the high of 15.88 percent WPI
and 7.79 percent CPI, that RBI despite rate hikes struggles to keep it under
check.
The prices are at a high plateau.
Each small hike robs the purchasing power of the people. Except for the most
essentials all other goods lack demand. It is causing production slump.
Except during seven-year drought in
1960s, never have the prices been on a continuous upward trend for so long.
Ironically, it has fomented once again the farmers’ stir. About 10,000 of them
marched to Mumbai as onion prices slumped to a never before level. The farmers
dharna in Delhi also during the last week is no solace for anyone. The
situation is piquant. Prices of farm inputs are going up while costs of
produces are plummeting. Potato and onion farmers are finding the going tough
forcing them in many parts to throw these away.
Across the country farmers demanding
profitable minimum support price are marching to vent grievances all over the
country. Farmers are demanding remunerative prices and support to the largest
segment of population dependent on agriculture. The government purchases of
wheat and rice still remains the highest but so does the problems of the
sector.
These all have bearing on the job
market. The crisis in the secondary industry of IT is a pointer to the crisis
in the primary industry. The manufacturing and core sectors are yet to have
normal operations. Pandemic-driven enthusiasm around digitisation &
technology drove companies to go on hiring spree came to screeching halt
towards later part of 2022, as workforce reductions started. Mass lay-off has
become the norm.
The Layoff.fyi, website on job
tracking in tech industry, says globally 153548 jobs were cut in 2022 by over
1000 companies. It continues through 2023. Despite NASSCOM saying that India is
least affected, overall the IT industry is reducing manpower though it has 51
lakh on rolls with a value of $227 billion.
The reduction in manpower comes with
higher software and hardware costs. It increases industry input costs across
the industry and the government sector. Unethical tech “upgradation” is
virtually a no-discussion zone. It hikes cost on the consumers without a rise
in production cost and makes inflation worse. The tech and pandemic linkages
remain a mystery. During Covid19, digital technology is credited with
minimising social risk factors, but many questions on whether it orchestrated a
fear psychosis for imposition of the lockdown to increase its footprint has not
yet been scrutinised.
The complex questions of job losses
across the board from the rural, farm sectors to every other conceivable area
adds to the social, law and order and governance costs. Again, it means
inflationary trends to continue. Is it all going beyond the capacities of the
government? That’s a critical question. It can happen just as a process or may
have been deliberately planned. The society and governments need to study
these. Inflation cannot be accepted as natural when critical input costs like
crude prices slump. India should lead the probe as every cent increase in
prices delays India’s journey progress.--- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Defamation = Disqualification: MAN. OUR NETAS ARE TOUCHY!, By Poonam I Kaushish, 28 March 2023 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 28 March 2023
Defamation = Disqualification
MAN. OUR NETAS
ARE TOUCHY!
By Poonam I Kaushish
It’s the season of the
defamation whereby any innuendo equals disqualification and becomes a ticket to
jail. Perhaps little did Congress’s Rahul’s know his comment of “Why do all
thieves have Modi as the common surname,” at a poll rally in Karnataka 2019
would land him in legal trouble 2023 when ex-Gujarat Minister Purnesh Modi
filed a case in Surat court that his comments had defamed entire Modi
community.
True, the Court
suspended Rahul’s two years sentence but within 24 hours Lok Sabha disqualified
Rahul under RPA’s Section 8(3) even though Court gave him 30 days to appeal.
Basing its decision on a 2013 Supreme Court judgment which avers stay on
conviction and not sentence was the only
way that could protect Rahul’s MPship.
Accordingly, Rahul stands
disqualified from Parliament for his jail term period and an additional 6
years, unless a higher court suspends his conviction. Ironically, the 2013
ordinance which Rahul tore up would have
allowed a convicted MP/MLA to continue in office till his appeal was disposed
of, has returned to haunt him.
Rahul, on his part
is defiant and seems to follow the three Cs principle: Conviction, Courage and
Commitment. Working on the
premise of ‘Converting’ the defamation challenge
to an opportunity of the ahead, making it the fourth C. The political rainbow
is his conviction has bandied the Opposition together as its leaders could be
next.
Questionably, is India heading
towards an era of political intolerance and criminal defamation? Is the polity
afraid of clash of ideas in public life? Why are politicians’ discourses
becoming more and more venomous and toxic? Is Government, Centre or State
crushing free expression, suppressing dissent? Underscoring the narrow-minded
climate of political discourse we live in.
Either way, there are two important
takeaways from the Surat court’s conviction of Rahul --- and neither is about
whether he will be disqualified as MP, even though a 2013 Supreme Court judgment
is explicit on the outcome. It held any MP, MLA, MLC found guilty of crime and
sentenced to more than two years would lose their House membership.
One, whether the Court
ruling will reopen discussion on one of the most controversial penal provisions
of the Indian Penal Code: Section 499 and 500 which spell out a “simple imprisonment
for a term which may extend to a maximum of two years and a fine or both for
spoken, read, gestured words with the intention of harming a person’s
reputation is to be considered defamation and attract legal punishment.”
Despite experts arguing
that it is disproportionate to harm caused and prone to misuse due to the vague
language used, specially in a milieu of competitive democracy during the heat
and dust of frenzied electioneering where leaders of every colour, caste and
creed try to whip up voters sentiments via speeches based on lies, deceit,
toxicity, slander, toxicity. Elections over these are forgotten and dumped in
political raddi.
Till date there was
an informal compact whereby political speeches made in the heat of campaigning
were largely exempt from domain of criminal defamation cases, not by law but
practice. It remains to be seen whether Rahul’s conviction and subsequent
disqualification shatters this convention and opens doors for Parties, leaders
and groups to file defamation charges against political adversaries and the
route taken by judiciary to decide these cases.
Specially as 6 high
voltage Assembly elections are scheduled this year prior to general polls in
2024. Raising a moot point: Will poll campaigns now be peppered with criminal
defamation litigation? Will it prompt netas
to be more restrained? Will courts evolve a new doctrine in adjudicating
such complaints? Given the vagueness of the criminal defamation statute.
The law completely fails to clarify
what harm to a person’s reputation means. Its explanation of harm as lowering
‘moral or intellectual character’ or lowering the ‘credit of that person’ in
the ‘estimation of others’ only convolutes the provision further.
It is difficult to sustain the
argument that all those with the surname, and not merely the three individuals
including Prime Minister Modi who were referred to, can be aggrieved persons.
Also, it is not clear if the complainant had shown that he was aggrieved by the
alleged slur either personally or as a member of the ‘Modi’ group.
Two, is the impact this move will
have as it generates a debate on the criminal act of defamation and whether
such a draconian law is required at all when civil remedies for defamation
exist. But it has resisted legal challenges twice. The offence arises from the
interplay of Article 19 which allows free speech with reasonable restrictions
and Article 21 which assures the right to live with dignity.
However, notwithstanding
reservations the British era provisions remain on books due to a Supreme Court
2016 ruling rejecting pleas from politicians and intellectuals that it was an
outdated idea that undermined Article 19.(1) (a) which grants a citizen the
right to freedom of expression. Instead,
it held that a person’s right to reputation was part of a person’s fundamental
right to life.
The provision is also peculiar
because it essentially uses criminal law to prosecute a private wrong committed
by an individual against another and not society at large. Consequently, only a
person or group can bring a charge of criminal defamation against someone, not
the State. The reason why many countries have dispensed with the law.
It is for these reasons that the
Apex Court asked magistrates to be careful while adjudicating cases and ensure
that the allegedly defamatory statement is not generic or based on subjective
understanding of a remark and contains specific ingredients that make up a
defamation charge. It is questionable whether attacking an indeterminate set of
people with a general remark will amount to defamation, and even if it did,
whether it is so grave as to warrant the maximum sentence.
It remains to be seen if the nautanki on the political firmament catalyses
another challenge to this statute. Will it open more such suits? Recall, Tamil
Nadu’s AIADMK Jayalalitha used criminal defamation as a tool between 2002-2006
filing over 100 criminal defamation cases against the media.
Clearly, there is no place for
criminal defamation in a modern world. A democracy should not treat defamation
as a criminal offence at all. It is a legacy of an era in which questioning
authority was considered a grave crime. In contemporary times, criminal
defamation acts as a tool to suppress criticism of public servants and
corporate misdeeds.
In the ultimate, when we do a
cost-benefit analysis, we need to answer a simple question: Is this toxicity really
worth the price the country will pay? Who will bear the cross? Our leaders must
dial down on coarse political speeches and desist from using narrow-mindedness
and prejudices as pedestals to stand on to be seen. The aim should be to raise
the bar on public discourse, not lower it. Parliament and Courts have plenty to
do. They need to pay heed before it’s too late. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News
and Feature Alliance)
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Gujarat Verdict On Rahul: ‘OPPOSITION JODO YATRA’ BEGINS?, By Insaf, 25 March 2023 |
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Round The States
New Delhi, 25 March 2024
Gujarat Verdict On Rahul
‘OPPOSITION JODO YATRA’ BEGINS?
By Insaf
A Surat court, in Gujarat has thrown
the Congress into a tizzy. Opposition leader and its former President Rahul Gandhi
has been disqualified as an Lok Sabha MP on Friday, following the court of
Chief Judicial Magistrate HH Varma, 24 hours earlier convicted him in a 2019
criminal defamation case for his remark, “How come all thieves have Modi as the
common surname?”at an election rally in Karnataka. Found guilty under IPC
sections 499 and 500, the court, however, granted him bail and suspended the
sentence of two years jail for 30 days to allow him to appeal in a higher
court. If a higher court does not stay his conviction and sentence, Rahul would
not be able to contest elections for eight years! Gandhi, the court had said could
have limited his speech to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nirav Modi, Vijay
Mallya, Mehul Choksi, and Anil Ambani, but he “intentionally” made a statement
that hurt individuals carrying the Modi surname, and thereby committed criminal
defamation. It was hearing a complaint filed by BJP MLA Purnesh Modi. Following
the verdict, BJP functionaries from ‘Teli’ (oil-pressing) caste and leaders of
the community who largely have the surname of ‘Modi’ demanded an apology from
Rahul and warned of an agitation.
However, Rahul has refused to
apologise. He tweeted: “My religion is based on truth and non-violence. Truth
is my God, non-violence the means to get it -- Mahatma Gandhi.” The Congress
will be filing an appeal as well as fighting back politically, as such cases it
claimed “were an outcome of the BJP’s malafide
intent and malice to crush any political dissent in India.”The silver siling is that Opposition leaders
of DMK, TMC, AAP, NCP, JMM, RJD,among others are on the same page. Statements
of support are pouring in: “The action against Gandhi is an occasion for fight,
not fright and all parties opposed to BJP must come together without delay”; “In
PM Modi's New India, opposition leaders have become prime target. While BJP
leaders with criminal antecedents are inducted into the Cabinet, Opposition
leaders are disqualified for their speeches”; “Today, we have witnessed a new
low for our constitutional democracy”; “it’s murder of democracy and this is
the beginning of the end of dictatorship”; “It has become a crime to call a
thief a thief, while those looting the country are out”; “The sentence against
Rahulwas announced yesterday and within a day he is now disqualified from Lok
Sabha! Nothing short of a surgical strike on democracy! Time for the entire
opposition to rally against this unbridled emergency!” The saffron party said
that it was a legal issue and not that of the BJP! Anyone getting fooled? The
big question is what course this defamation and disqualification case take. For
starters, should one read signs of the Rahul Gandhi case boomeranging into a
long drawn “Opposition jodo yatra”?
* * * * * * *
BJP New State
Chiefs
Four States have
new BJP Presidents ahead of General elections 2024. The change in guard on
Thursday last is well-thought out though caught many by surprise. In Rajasthan,
the party has sought to halt infighting, by replacing Satish Punia with
two-term Lok Sabha member CP Joshi, also a Brahmin face. Punia didn’t have the
best of relations with former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, who incidentally
continues to be the party’s most formidable leader, though Delhi had
reservations. Indications are equations are improving. Having broken ties with
JD(U) in Bihar, the BJP has replaced Sanjay Jaiswal with MLC Samrat Chaudhary,
a Kurmi leader, to maximise its outreach among OBC communities. In Odisha,
former minister and MP, Manmohan Samal, takes over. He’s better-known faces,
more aggressive with his politics bearing a distinct Hindutva mark. In Delhi,
working State President Virender Sachdeva takes full-time charge even though
he’s low-key, his organisational skills have ‘infused a sense of cohesion in
the unit, pulled in different directions by local heavyweights.’ Will the new
team boost BJP’s organisational machinery and consolidate support base, time
will tell.
* * * * * * *
Punjab’s Hot Chase
Punjab police’ hot chase to nab
pro-Khalistan preacher Amritpal Singh shows cracks in AAP governance. Clearly,it’s
a blunder with authorities turning a blind eye to warning signals—since February
23, when Singh stormed a police station in Ajnala. Invoking NSA against him,
after his escape on March 18, when a belated go-ahead was given to arrest him, is
waking up too late. In the backdrop that the stringent act is merrily invoked by
governments against journalists and human rights’ activists at the drop of a
hat. While the Punjab & Haryana High Court has rapped the State police over
“intelligence failure” after a petition was filed for his ‘release’ from
alleged police custody, there’s also an unfortunate disconnect in New Delhi. Union
Home Ministry perhaps should have prodded the State more, as the Ajnala
incident showed undercurrents of Punjab during 80s and 1990s? Instead of
working in tandem, the AAP and BJP leadership then traded charges. Now an alert
has been sent to all States as chief of ‘Waris Panjab De'gives the slip
from a high-end Mercedes to switching cars to a mobike and changing his
appearance. Will the hunt be successful?
* * * * * * *
Delhi’s Poster War
What’s the big deal in putting up
posters? A lot would say AAP in Delhi. The police arrested six persons including
two owners of a printing press and registered 49 FIRs on Wednesday last for
putting up posters reading ‘Modi Hatao, Desh Bachao’ (Remove Modi,
Save the Nation) across the capital’s walls and electricity poles on Sunday. The
FIRs were under Delhi Prevention of Defacement of Property Act and Press and
Registration of Books Act. So far ‘20,000 of 50,000 posters’ ordered were
seized. A livid Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal reacted: “They registered an FIR
over a poster! Why is Modi ji so scared! This is a normal
poster, and anybody can put it up in a democracy. Such a scared and insecure PM.
I think he wakes up every morning thinking who he can put in jail.” Plus, he
wondered: ‘Is the PM’s health ok?...he’s suffering from a sleeping disorder,
and should consult a good doctor…Tell PM to sleep because if he is sleeping for
3 hours it’s a problem.”
* * * * * * *
No Online Gambling
No online gambling! On Thursday
last, The Tamil Nadu Prohibition of Online Gambling and Regulation of Online
Games Ordinance, 2022 was unanimously passed by the Assembly, despite
objections from Governor Ravi. The bill was first passed on 19 October 2022,
but was returned by Ravi on March 6 questioning the Assembly’s competence to
frame such a law. A determined Chief Minister Stalin appealed to the House
saying: “This is a bill passed not just with the mind, but also our hearts.” He
referred to 41 people having committed suicide after losing huge money in gambling.
Seen as a rebuff to Governor, Stalin said: “government received 10,785 emails
from public of which only 27 were against the ban; it formulated suggestions on
a report by a team of retired Justice K Chandru; State has every right to
“streamline, regulate and protect people” living within its jurisdiction; cited
Union Minister Anurag Thakur’s written response in Parliament underlining
state’s powers to legislate on betting/gambling; and summed up with “this
government can’t function without a conscience.” Best bet alright, but Stalin
must ensure the ban is implemented. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Dare & Democracy: SOUTH BLOCK TO RECONCILE, By Prof. D. K. Giri, 31 March, 2023 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 31 March 2023
Dare & Democracy
SOUTH BLOCK TO RECONCILE
By Prof. D. K. Giri
(Secretary General, Association for
Democratic Socialism)
A diplomat from a middle-sized European country ruefully
said to me, “how do we raise human rights issues with your government? It is a
big country and a huge market. We are not talking to some small country in
Africa or Latin America.” That is a dilemma posed by India to other countries,
especially democracies.The other one was manifested in the practice of
realpolitik by a rich and progressive European country.
When the civil societies in that particular country raised
the issue of human rights in India, their government cautioned and counselled
that in the national interest of the country, trade and commerce had to be
privileged over human rights. Even Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar says,
“Westerners talk of rule-based international order but sacrifice it at the
altar of their respective national interests. We Indians have to run our
industries and feed our hungry, many of them below the poverty line.So, we have
to buy oil from Russia as others do.”
Such tension between idealism and pragmatism is felt across
the world. Rich industrialised countries believed in maintaining their
political and economic power disregarding democratic principles abroad. That
approach has been evident in the Western countries’ massive trade and commerce
with China in the face of ruthless suppression of human rights including
rolling over the tanks at Tiananmen over students protesting for democracy.
Many a country in the world, including India, is
diffidently conscious of the dichotomy between growth and human rights. That is
why, perhaps, the Indian government appears indifferent to allegations to
violations of human rights. At the same time, New Delhi believes that Western
perception of human rights does not converge with that of Global South, and
Western countries could be guilty of maintaining double standards. At any rate,
why is New Delhi using both dare and diplomacy in its foreign policy? Although,
evidently New Delhi has not arrived yet as a world power, it believes and is
perceived to be at the threshold of the top.
Secondly, New Delhi’s current foreign policy is driven by a
muscular nationalism, a ‘dare you’ approach. While it is certainly good for a
self-confident and an aspiring power, India should adhere to realism as well as
norm-setting. On the first principle, realism, is a matter of perception. The
leadership gurus like David Schwartz says, ‘you are what you think you are’.
More power to South Block and India’s economy!
Also, there are credible research and prognoses that India
will be the number one or two economy in the world and will overtake China. A
short analysis by the noted American geopolitical expert, Peter Zeilan, makes
such prediction. China’s economy is a ‘bubble’ created by the United States
after the summit between Nixon and Mao to isolate Soviet Union and secondly, as
a part of American globalisation push during the Cold War era. Whenever America
wants to pull the rug, Chinese economy is bound to collapse.
On the other hand, India has not been internationalised. It
did not grow much, nor did it suffer like others. It does not get growth, but
it also does not get instability. India is slowly transitioning, lot slower
than those in her peer group, yet the growth is steady. In a few decades it
will be the largest population in the world and will remain so for about 50
years. It will not suffer the demographic crunch like the Europeans or even
Chinese. India has problems but they also find solutions.
More important, India is closer to what they need. With its
growing friendship with Australia, supply of food and minerals should not be a
problem. India is the first stop off the Persian Gulf, therefore, despite the
usual perceptions of inefficiency, women’s issues, corruption, Pakistan, India
has much less to worry about than China. India can come with solutions from
time to time and solve its problems, but China is inevitably close to the end.
Such pontification is giving India the confidence and
confirming the refrain that India will grow despite its leadership. So, India
could dare!
The other part of our concern which is intrinsic to India’s
soil is democracy and everything that goes with it – human rights, gender
equality, pluralism, liberty, choice, justice and so on. Note that democracy
for various evident reasons, has become a universal aspiration. India is a home
of democracy as Prime Minister Modi suggested on Wednesday, 29 March 2023, to a
Summit for Democracy, co-hosted by USA, Costa Rica, the Netherlands, South
Korea and Zambia. He said, “the idea of elected leaders was a common feature in
ancient India, long before the rest of the world.”
Furthermore, Modi had claimed before that India preceded
the Greek city-state in 6 Century BC that gave rise to Damos and Kratos
(peoples rule). He cited the statecraft of Mahabharata, practiced over 5000
years ago where the citizens were enjoined the responsibility of “choosing
their leaders as their first duty; and the Vedas which dated much earlier than
the Greek principles spoke of political power being exercised by broad-based
consultative bodies” (modern day cabinets, legislatures, etc.). He added that
climate change and Covid vaccine were also people-driven.
So far so good. But sadly, what is experienced on the
ground is far from desirable. Like others, we tend to follow a double standard
by undermining those we claim to be our heritage. Our democratic institutions
are undermined. No democracy can function effectively and healthily without
robust institutions and in some cases autonomous ones. One of the architects of
European Union, the French Foreign Minister, Robert Schumann, said, ‘great
(wo)men are known by the institutions they leave behind.’ Second, human rights
are flouted with impunity.
The attacks on minorities, vandalization of churches and
other religious institutions, targeting the Muslims, including the inhuman mob
lynching, are absolutely out of order. Going after the journalists critical of
viewpoints or actions are out of democratic line. If BBC brings out a
documentary that could be engaged and proved to be malicious but income tax
raids on their offices is not the right reaction. No doubt, IT raids should be
conducted automatically. The timing, cause and effect sequence in the BBC saga
shows us as not a mature democracy. If Hindenburg brings out ‘discrepancy or
unethicality’ in a business house that must be addressed, not trashed.
All in all, admittedly, the present dare is a sign of a
country in resurgence. But on democracy, the ‘glorious past’ and the ‘present
predicament’ do not go together. Will the honorable Prime Minister address
these distortions? -— INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Kishida Dashes To Delhi: DISCERNING HIS PRIORITIES, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 24 March, 2023 |
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Round The World
New Delhi, 24 March 2023
Kishida Dashes To Delhi
DISCERNING HIS PRIORITIES
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Relations,
JIMMC)
The Japanese Prime Minister Fumio
Kishida dashed to Delhi for two days, last Monday and Tuesday, precisely for 27
hours. Media is abuzz with interpretations of his sudden and short visit; it is
quite apparent that he was here to unveil his project on Free and Open
Indo-Pacific (FOIP) which he had announced to do in the Shangri-La Dialogue in
Singapore last June. His visit coincided with that of Xi Jinping to Moscow to show
solidarity with Putin at war with Ukraine.
Note that Kishida flew from here to
Kiev to express his support for Zelenskyy. So the predominant purpose of his
visit to Delhi was obviously to discuss the war with Prime Minister Narendra
Modi as he (Kishida) holds the G-7 Summit in Hiroshima in May, and he would
like to mobilise support from major countries, including India against ‘Russian
aggression’ in Ukraine.
Tokyo and New Delhi have divergent responses
to the Ukrainian war. Japan has joined the US-led allies on the war in imposing
sanctions against Russia and selling arms to Ukraine. Japan views the Russian
military action in Ukraine as the clear violation of international norms and
causes disruption in food and fertilizers security in addition to tragic human
and material losses. India’s reaction is muted; New Delhi has not called out
Russia as an aggressor, not joined the sanction regime, and in fact has bought
oil from Russia to the chagrin of western countries.
While India and Japan’s relations
are quite close, it is anyone’s guess if New Delhi will shift its position for
G-7 Summit or G-20 in September, which India is presiding. Interestingly, while
Xi Jinping is perhaps nudging Putin to go for solution to the conflict, Kishida
is persuading India to take position against both China and Russia.
In fact, containing China for the
stability and security in India-Pacific region is another main purpose, equally
important for Japan, for Kishida’s visit. In concrete terms, Tokyo has
formulated the strategy called Free and Open India-Pacific (FOIP) which
dovetails with Japan’s National Security Strategy adopted last December. Among
other things, the strategy suggests deployment of cruise missiles to strengthen
their strike-back capability as Japan faces continual missile threats from
North Korea, an ally of China. It also advocates using development aid more
strategically in support of like-minded countries. The FOIP flows from this
strategy.
Kishida announced and outlined the
FOIPin the Sapru House lecture delivered in Indian Council of World Affairs
(ICWA). It is estimated that FOIP is a whopping 75 billion USD project to check
China’s growing influence and assertiveness across the region. It consists of
providing patrol vessels, enhancing maritime law enforcement and capabilities,
maintaining cyber security, digital and green initiatives and economic security.
In order to do so, FOIP suggests enhancement of human resource for maritime
security, rule of law and governance in at least 20 countries by training 2300
personnel.
Furthermore, Japan is seeking to extend
assistance to emerging economies around India-Pacific region in terms of
equipments like patrol boats, provisions for coastguards and other
infrastructure support. In particular, Japan has committed in FOIP two-billion
USD for maritime security equipment, enhancement of transport infrastructure
needed for freedom of navigation and rule-based order in the region. Tokyo
maintains that India is an indispensable partner and should play a big role in
this project because of its geo-political location and New Delhi’s risks with
Beijing.
Japan and India’s security interests
converge as Beijing has been nibbling away India’s territories by making
incredible and illegitimate claims on Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Since 2020,
India has been in intermittent conflicts with China as 20 Indian soldiers and
unaccounted Chinese soldiers died in unprovoked clashes. Likewise, Japan is
deeply concerned as Beijing claims territories in East China Sea including
Senkaku Islands belonging to Japan and entire South China Sea. Such claims have
rattled Beijing’s smaller neighbours including Japan. FOIP, therefore, is
clearly aimed at countering China’s egregious expansionism.
Note that 15 years ago Shinzo Abe
spoke about India-Pacific cooperation during his visit to Delhi. Quad
consisting of USA, Australia, Japan and India was created out of this
initiative by Japan. Quad does not have anovert security agenda although Quad
members are engaged in ‘Malabar Naval Exercise’. The next Quad summit and
Malabar Exercise will be hosted by Australia later this year. It is not
difficult to discern that FOIP will provide the security arm to Quad.
Another purpose of Kishida’s visit
was to somewhat align the G-20 agenda with that of G-7. G-20 has industrial and
emerging market countries, which is referred to as Global South. India is seemed
to be representing the voice of Global South in current global politics which
reflects the ‘active non-alignment’, a strategy initiated by Latin America. I
discussed this strategy in a column in early March titled ‘India & Ukraine
War; Active Non-Alignment.’This strategy is at variance with the western
approach to defending democracy and rule-based order in the world.
India-Japan ties are the key to the
stability in the region as both countries risk territorial belligerence from
Beijing. In recent periods they have developed strong bilateralism. They share special
partnership.Initially, India-Japan relations were elevated to 'Global
Partnership' in 2000, which graduated to ‘Strategic and Global Partnership' in
2006, and then to 'Special Strategic and Global Partnership' in 2014. The
structure of this partnership consists of annual summits which began in 2006;
the last summit was held in March 2022 in New Delhi;and alsohas 2- and-2
Foreign and Defence Ministerial Meeting around the annual summit.
India and Japan share strong
economic ties. Trade between the two was worth USD 20.55 billion in fiscal year
2021-2022. The Japanese investments in India touched USD 32 billion between
2000 and 2019. India’s import from Japan was 14 billion USD during the same
period. Japan has been supporting infrastructure development in India,
including a high-speed rail project. In fact, India-Japan partnership covers
various sectors – security, defence, trade and investment, science and
technology, education and health care, critical and emerging technologies. Discussions
are on to conduct joint projects in third countries in the region. FOIP may
provide that opportunity.
There is a good deal of warmth
between Indian Prime Minister and his Japanese counterpart. Shinzo Abe, the
former Prime Minister of long-standing, was considered a ‘friend of India’. The
current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met Modi three times in 2022 and will meet
three more times this year. They will meet at G-7 Summit in May, G-20 in
September and Quad Summit in Sydney later this year. The bonhomie between top
leadership has been conducive to building seamlessly the bilateral partnership.
Kishida’s visit should have, as
usual, contributed to strengthening the special partnership between two
countries. However, the moot point ishow the two friendly countries converge
their responses to the war in Ukraine and consolidate their alliance vis-à-vis
China. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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