Political Diary

New Delhi, 12 May, 2026

Missing U In Unity?

INDIA BLOC GONE?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Unity in disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as Opposition fault lines cracked wide open post BJP’s victory and TMC, DMK, CPM’s defeat mingled with despair in the recent State polls. It is easy to slice, dice and analyze if INDIA Bloc has lost its vitality? Has hit its self-destruct button? Are its days numbered? Is time ripe for its epitaph?

Today, the Bloc seems fragmented after defeats in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala which might exacerbate it further. At the storm’s centre which is threatening to shred the Bloc apart, is its biggest constituent, Congress. Already, DMK has made plain its distrust calling it “backstabbers” after the Grand Party jumped ship to newbie TVK. More so, as DMK had rewarded it a Rajya Sabha berth last month, resulting it no longer wanting to be seated alongside Congress MPs in Parliament.

Though DMK with 22 MPs hasn’t formally announced its departure from India Bloc, its importance for Opposition unity is not limited to Tamil Nadu alone, as it has consistently been a vocal champion of ideological agendas raised by the Bloc against BJP-led NDA Government over years. If it chooses to distance itself now, it could be the beginning of unravelling of the platform and Congress isolation within the larger Opposition space.

The crisis could not have come at a worse time for Opposition with TMC losing West Bengal, DMK Tamil Nadu and CPM Kerala which have robbed the Opposition of leaders who championed federalism, an issue which united all in Parliament and outside. Both Southern satraps were all for enlarging the federal structure for better federal balance and cultural distinction. A matter, contrary to Congress’s centrist tendencies.

Today, with Kerala under its belt, Congress holds office in three of five Southern States but it is no longer in a pole position nationally. Hence, it should have no issue in demanding more rights for States. But can and will it make a convincing case for federalism the way DMK did?

Also, with footprints of regional Parties shrinking, whereby TDP, JMM and NC are the only ones that run Governments, the crisis of federalism faces the threat of being reduced to an academic debate.

Pertinently the contradictions within India Bloc go back to its formation 2023. The big tent of non-BJP Parties was conceived as a national platform and was accepted from its initiation that Parties would compete at State level while coming together at the national level.

Certainly, it collectively pinned BJP to 240 MPs in 2024 polls, but the implausibility of such a loose arrangement was exposed when regional considerations compelled JD (U) Nitish to abandon the Bloc and shift loyalty to NDA. In West Bengal Bloc members competed and under-cut each other. Many times Abdullah’s NC and other groups warned that the Bloc was sliding towards irrelevance.

In fact, Tamil Nadu’s events have further reinforced the wobbly nature of Opposition unity   which functions without a proper coordination team, secretariat or coordinator. In this form at best it can be a nothing but a mere banner for floor coordination in Parliament. Consequently, it has lead to bad blood, disquiet and realignment.

There are strong indicators that the Bloc is facing an existential crisis and could break into two or more formations, giving the Modi-led NDA a distinct advantage and scope for manoeuvring 2029 Lok Sabha polls. Asserted a senior leader, “India Bloc is gone,” thereby sounding the first note of death knell of Opposition unity.

Clearly, a reset would require Congress to prioritise long term coalition building over short-term electoral priorities. The Tamil Nadu events have injected a crisis of confidence and trust within the Bloc that will not be easy to address and overcome. With 7 States set for Assembly elections next year the future looks bleak for Opposition unity. 

Paradoxically, the imminent disintegration of Opposition unity brings both joy and grief for the Grand Old Party. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress has reasons to cheer the downfall of a whimsical and temperamental Mamata and Stalin’s defeat for two diverse reasons. In Bengal, Congress thinks it has a notional chance of revival and is hoping a TMC section ‘comes home.’  Given, daggers are out within State leaders blaming Mamata’s coterie for their downfall. Also things have gone sour between Mamata and nephew-heir Abhishek Banerjee.

Round The World

New Delhi, 7 May 2026

Five State Elections

IMPACT OF FOREIGN POLICY

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. of Practice, Institute of Management Bhubaneshwar) 

Five states in India went through closely-contested elections which threw a few surprises on 4 May as the results poured in. Exit polls stirred up expert analyses and anxious discussions on the outcome of the poll. One dimension has been missing in the self-reflections, observations and analyses; that is the impact of foreign policy or lack of it on the election results. Let us explore this angle. 

India and the world have hardly featured in state elections. There is an unwritten rule in Indian politics that, general elections are about the nation, state elections are about the neighbourhood and local issues. If Delhi handles Pakistan, Kolkata handles paddy cultivation. That rule is dying. And with it, perhaps the regional parties as we know it. I have argued in the past in this column that if a regional party, say, TMC, SP, or RJD take on the BJP, in actual fact, the Union Government, they have to speak national and international politics to counter BJP. Alas, these parties have over-focused on regional issues and are being progressively squeezed out. 

I wish to point out two political trends which have worked against the regional parties. Unless these are reversed or corrected, regional parties will disappear from Indian politics and two major parties or coalitions will fight it out for power in the Centre as well as states. First, for years I have argued that it violates federal propriety when Union Ministers – who represent the whole country – descend on state campaigns as BJP foot soldiers. Narendra Modi is the Prime Minister of the whole country including the five states that went to election. So, when he campaigns against the DMK or TMC, he is bringing himself down to a party leader not the Prime Minister representing the whole country at home and abroad. 

When the Union Ministers campaign with the Union flag, the SPG and the implicit weight of the Union, the state parties face an unfair and unequal fight. The state parties have Chief Ministers whereas the Centre has the entire Republic. The second trend represents another unfair fight due to the oversight of or lack of interests by regional parties in global issues. The proliferation of social media has globalised the voters’ mind. A fisherman in Rameshwaram watches Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and calculates diesel prices. A teacher in Siliguri forwards WhatsApp videos of Dhaka protests and asks, what is Delhi doing for Hindus there. Similarly, a nurse in Kochi, with a brother Hindu bhai tracks UAE-India agreements like she warns tracked bus fares. 

The voter is no longer local, they are glocal. And elections are catching up. Look at the BJP’s campaign in West Bengal which did not stop at Sandeshkhali. It ran on infiltration from Bangladesh, CAA involving Hindus fleeing persecution in neighbouring states and Mamata’s silence on attacks on Hindus in Dhaka. While TMC spoke ration, roads, and Laxmi Bhandar, Delhi spoke borders and national security. TMC could have raised sidelining of India in the negotiations on Iran war, or Donald Trump’s blowing hot and cold on India. 

Likewise, in Tamil Nadu, the Katchatheevu Island row, Sri Lankan Tamils, fishermen arrests – all became DMK vs BJP rally points. The Union argued “only we can deal with Colombo”. DMK spoke only welfare. What DMK could have done is to expose BJP’s fault lines in foreign policy including allowing a U.S. submarine torpedo and sink the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters, approximately 50 nautical miles off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing over 80 crew members. The ship in question was returning after participating in MILAN 2026 naval exercise and International Fleet Review hosted by India in Visakhapatnam. New Delhi had the obligation to defend the security of the ship in international waters. 

Talking of Kerala elections, nearly 2.5 million Keralites work in the Gulf. When Delhi signs a labour MoU with UAE or evacuates nurses from Israel to escape the war that is not foreign policy. That is war entering into the kitchen of voters in Mallapuram. Here it was the Congress party fighting to wrest power from Communists hence the foreign policy was not the target. But Congress party is the only opposition party occasionally attacking Union Government on its transgressions in foreign policy. 

Finally, Assam witnessed election debates on NRC, CAA, Myanmar refugees and ‘Bangladeshi’ as a political epithet. Assam has never had a purely local election. Its foreign policy is its demography. In each of the above cases, the Union Government came with a passport whereas the state parties arrived with a ration card. The first speaks for the country and the second speaks to the locality. And in 24x7, social media driven information war, the passport often beats the ration cards. 

It is true that India’s Constitution, conventions and media eco-system lend to the Union a monopoly on foreign policy legitimacy. But that is a misnomer. Foreign policy concerns the entire country. Although, only the Union Government holds the portfolio of foreign policy, the Parliament constituted by members of all political parties supersedes the Government. So, regional parties need not reiterate to the safe ground of local welfare, local identity and local grievance. If your opponent is talking war, peace, national interest and the world, and you are talking potholes, you look small. Not wrong, just small. And in the age of 56-inch optics small does not win. 

Let me issue a warning: if state parties do not develop an international vocabulary, they will be reduced to municipal parties. The BJP fights state elections as a national plebiscite – Pulwama in 2019, Balakot in Karnataka, now Bangladesh in Bengal. Each time, it nationalises a state poll. The state parties on the other hand, do not localise and size-up BJP’s politics. 

I am not arguing that Tamil Nadu should open an embassy in Jaffna, I am arguing three things. One, state parties should have international politics cells in their parties to track their diaspora, trade and borders etc. Kerala should have a Gulf policy white paper as Bengal should have a Bangladesh doctrine. They need not conduct diplomacy but democratise foreign policy making. Second, why should only Parliament discuss China? Why cannot the state assemblies discuss external issues affecting them – fishermen, migrants and border districts? Third, the civil society conducts the track-II diplomacy – state level think tanks, dispora groups and universities connect and interact with their counterparts in foreign countries. They should also create alternative policies so that the world is not seen or spoken by New Delhi alone. 

The last word here is that federalism was designed to keep India together by allowing the states to be different. But in a globalised century, federalism will survive only if states can also become  global. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 6 May 2026  

India’s Economic Strategy

BOOST TO MANUFACTURING?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The spectacular victory of the BJP in the states of West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry puts on the party the extra burden of reviving the states. With Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, banking on domestic consumption and its sheer absorbing capacity, boosting the economy may work to a limited extent. She requested industry captains to step up and capture the domestic demand currently met by foreign markets. “Business are importing a lot of tools which are intermediary, so there is some more agility which I expect from the Indian industry”. 

The recent observations of the finance minister to step up manufacturing to counter imported goods and stop valuable foreign exchange outflow is well-timed. However, considering this fiscal, economists are of the opinion that rural income and consumption and crop yields may decline due to week rains and possible El Nino impact. There is thus a need to go deep into the problem, for which the government has to be specific and come out with an action plan in clarifying the challenges faced by Indian manufacturers and what could be done to start producing import substitution products in the country.   

India’s share of global manufacturing has remained stagnant at around 2.8 percent for a decade, which indeed is quite low for a country aspiring to gain developed statuswhileChina has occupied a share of 30 percent. Reports indicate that the production linked incentive scheme launched by the government has primarily attracted assembly operations rather than high-value manufacturing. Most of these assembly units are dependent on import of componentsfrom China. Thus, increased exports of the country mean increased imports from China. Modi has failed to build the indigenous base in India though some progress has been made. 

China appears to have emerged as an integral part of the Indian manufacturing supply chain, exporting close to $150 billion in FY26, a report published by trade intelligence firm GTRI observed. Even as it accounted for around 16 percent of India’s total imports, China’s dominance is significantly higher in industrial goods, supplying as much as 30.8 percent of the country’s requirements. Four vital sectors such as electronics, machinery, computers and organic chemicals were the largest recipient of Chinese imports. Together they accounted for 66 percent of India’s total imports from China valued at around $82.6 billion. This dependence is less about consumption and more about weak domestic production. 

Indian industry relies heavily on Chinese inputs which include electronic parts, EV batteries, solar modules, APIs and speciality chemicals that are hard to replace at scale. As a result, analysts rightly point out that even as India tries to grow exports, its supply chains remain tied to China which is undoubtedly far ahead in technology and efficiency. Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific remains firm as India cannot stand the competition of Beijing. As New Delhi recalibrates its foreign policy to accommodate Beijing’s rise, most countries realize that India is no longer an aspiring peer competitor. 

Meanwhile, reports indicate that foreign investors pulled more than $20 billion out of Indian equities in the first four months of this calendar year, surpassing last year’s record annual exit as a surge in crude oil prices triggered by the West Asian conflict dented sentiment. The exodus has been exacerbated by a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, which has held rates making the US Treasury yield more attractive alongside a strengthening US dollar.  If deprecation pressure persists, the RBI may have to explore steps to curb oil-related dollar demand in the spot market, restrict gold imports and tighten monetary policy. The surge in oil prices above $120 per barrel may lead to inflation concerns intensifying.  

The declining rupee, which is now around Rs 95 per dollar, has been an area of concern with cost of imports rising added to the increase in the price of oil and gas as well as subsidies on fertilisers and industrial raw materials with the onset of the West Asian conflict and uncertainty around the US-India trade deal. Thus, the country enters the fiscal year “at the intersection of domestic resilience and external turbulence”, as per a government report with the future looking not quite encouraging. 

Even the IMF has warned that risks for the country are tilted towards high inflation, wider fiscal and external deficits and slower growth, specially is energy and fertiliser supply disruptions persist. The crude oil basket averaged $113 per barrel in March, just under $115 per barrel through April end. 

It can be discerned that the lack of manufacturing boost may obviously be related to lack of technological upgradation and ensuring economies of scale, on the one hand, and the inflow of financial support and participation, on the other. The only area of satisfaction is that some foreign tie-ups have been reached in recent times, which could see some advance in manufacturing. With reference to the finance minister’s pointer to the private sector to boost manufacturing, it needs to be stated that there are various indigenous items which do not compare with imported ones, both in quality and pricing. The oft-repeated economic jargon of achieving economies of scale needs to be achieved.  

Most analysts are of the opinion that India’s competitive power and global influence is fast slipping and has very little assertive power. In evolving our economic strategy, it is necessary to bring about changes in policy making along with technological innovations as well as economic efficiency for India’s emergence as a key player in the global arena. What the government plans to do remains to be seen but in this critical scenario, India has to face the challenges with determination.  

As regards Indian diplomacy, it needs to be said that the country has rightly maintained contacts with Iran and our leaders have openly stated that the country would purchase oil and gas from whichever source offers the lowest price. India’s relation with China has greatly improved and this needs to be maintained for the country is dependent on the latter for vital imports in the electronics, pharma, auto and various other sectors.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 6 May 2026  

India’s Economic Strategy

BOOST TO MANUFACTURING?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The spectacular victory of the BJP in the states of West Bengal, Assam, and Puducherry puts on the party the extra burden of reviving the states. With Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, banking on domestic consumption and its sheer absorbing capacity, boosting the economy may work to a limited extent. She requested industry captains to step up and capture the domestic demand currently met by foreign markets. “Business are importing a lot of tools which are intermediary, so there is some more agility which I expect from the Indian industry”. 

The recent observations of the finance minister to step up manufacturing to counter imported goods and stop valuable foreign exchange outflow is well-timed. However, considering this fiscal, economists are of the opinion that rural income and consumption and crop yields may decline due to week rains and possible El Nino impact. There is thus a need to go deep into the problem, for which the government has to be specific and come out with an action plan in clarifying the challenges faced by Indian manufacturers and what could be done to start producing import substitution products in the country.   

India’s share of global manufacturing has remained stagnant at around 2.8 percent for a decade, which indeed is quite low for a country aspiring to gain developed statuswhileChina has occupied a share of 30 percent. Reports indicate that the production linked incentive scheme launched by the government has primarily attracted assembly operations rather than high-value manufacturing. Most of these assembly units are dependent on import of componentsfrom China. Thus, increased exports of the country mean increased imports from China. Modi has failed to build the indigenous base in India though some progress has been made. 

China appears to have emerged as an integral part of the Indian manufacturing supply chain, exporting close to $150 billion in FY26, a report published by trade intelligence firm GTRI observed. Even as it accounted for around 16 percent of India’s total imports, China’s dominance is significantly higher in industrial goods, supplying as much as 30.8 percent of the country’s requirements. Four vital sectors such as electronics, machinery, computers and organic chemicals were the largest recipient of Chinese imports. Together they accounted for 66 percent of India’s total imports from China valued at around $82.6 billion. This dependence is less about consumption and more about weak domestic production. 

Indian industry relies heavily on Chinese inputs which include electronic parts, EV batteries, solar modules, APIs and speciality chemicals that are hard to replace at scale. As a result, analysts rightly point out that even as India tries to grow exports, its supply chains remain tied to China which is undoubtedly far ahead in technology and efficiency. Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific remains firm as India cannot stand the competition of Beijing. As New Delhi recalibrates its foreign policy to accommodate Beijing’s rise, most countries realize that India is no longer an aspiring peer competitor. 

Meanwhile, reports indicate that foreign investors pulled more than $20 billion out of Indian equities in the first four months of this calendar year, surpassing last year’s record annual exit as a surge in crude oil prices triggered by the West Asian conflict dented sentiment. The exodus has been exacerbated by a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, which has held rates making the US Treasury yield more attractive alongside a strengthening US dollar.  If deprecation pressure persists, the RBI may have to explore steps to curb oil-related dollar demand in the spot market, restrict gold imports and tighten monetary policy. The surge in oil prices above $120 per barrel may lead to inflation concerns intensifying.  

The declining rupee, which is now around Rs 95 per dollar, has been an area of concern with cost of imports rising added to the increase in the price of oil and gas as well as subsidies on fertilisers and industrial raw materials with the onset of the West Asian conflict and uncertainty around the US-India trade deal. Thus, the country enters the fiscal year “at the intersection of domestic resilience and external turbulence”, as per a government report with the future looking not quite encouraging. 

Even the IMF has warned that risks for the country are tilted towards high inflation, wider fiscal and external deficits and slower growth, specially is energy and fertiliser supply disruptions persist. The crude oil basket averaged $113 per barrel in March, just under $115 per barrel through April end. 

It can be discerned that the lack of manufacturing boost may obviously be related to lack of technological upgradation and ensuring economies of scale, on the one hand, and the inflow of financial support and participation, on the other. The only area of satisfaction is that some foreign tie-ups have been reached in recent times, which could see some advance in manufacturing. With reference to the finance minister’s pointer to the private sector to boost manufacturing, it needs to be stated that there are various indigenous items which do not compare with imported ones, both in quality and pricing. The oft-repeated economic jargon of achieving economies of scale needs to be achieved.  

Most analysts are of the opinion that India’s competitive power and global influence is fast slipping and has very little assertive power. In evolving our economic strategy, it is necessary to bring about changes in policy making along with technological innovations as well as economic efficiency for India’s emergence as a key player in the global arena. What the government plans to do remains to be seen but in this critical scenario, India has to face the challenges with determination.  

As regards Indian diplomacy, it needs to be said that the country has rightly maintained contacts with Iran and our leaders have openly stated that the country would purchase oil and gas from whichever source offers the lowest price. India’s relation with China has greatly improved and this needs to be maintained for the country is dependent on the latter for vital imports in the electronics, pharma, auto and various other sectors.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)