Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 6 April 2026

India’s Ethanol Push

FIRMS GAIN, FOOD & WATER LOSE

By Shivaji Sarkar 

Every crisis in India is fast becoming a pretext for profit masquerading as reform. The Strait of Hormuz oil crisis has now been repurposed to justify 20 percent ethanol blending (E20)—pitched as green and strategic, but structurally unsound. It threatens food, water, and land security while enriching an industry. 

Consumers pay twice: 8–10% lower mileage and costly retrofits—Rs 20,000–Rs70,000 for each of over 40 crore running vehicles—turning a supposed solution into a nationwide economic crisis. 

The touted energy benefit is possibly a myth and drain on agricultural resources gigantic.To meet the target, the country will require about 1,016 crore litres of ethanol annually. Achieving this would require a shift from sugar and sugarcane—leading to a growing dependence on maize, broken rice and rice procured from Food Corporation of India. Estimates suggest that India will need to produce 11–12 million tonnes of grains, comprising maize and rice, 275 million tonnes of sugarcane, covering a land area equal to 7.1 million hectares of land. 

Experts caution that while high yielding varieties can help meet the demand, it would also increase reliance on water, pesticides and fertilizers. According to Mumbai-based IndiaSpend’s report, the E20 target may not significantly reduce emissions, may harm food security, and will provide only marginal energy security. 

Further, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) argues that using food-based feedstocks for ethanol production may not be the best use of land in a country where hunger remains a pressing issue.In effect, fuel drives would bite into food-producing lands or forests, burdening the nation’s scarce resources 

Not Carbon Neutral

Equally alarming is the water footprint. Sugarcane in India alone uses ~50 percent of irrigation water. Producing one litre of sugarcane-ethanol guzzles about 2,860 litres of water. That is nearly three cubic meters of water for a glass of fuel. In a water-stressed country, this is catastrophic. NITI Aayog warns that ethanol expansion could raise India’s annual irrigation demand by 50 billion cubic metres by 2070 – enough to quench Delhi’s thirst for 17 years. Most districts in India already face water scarcity. Redirecting scarce groundwater into fuel tanks undermines farms and drinking supplies alike. 

Ethanol expansion in India will divert~7–8 million hectare of cropland, sharply raise water use, and intensify food–fuel competition, risking higher food prices.Forcing crop-based fuels can increase overall greenhouse emissions – as seen in the US. More land clearing and fertilizer use raised carbon intensity of ethanol. 

Lifecycle Emissions: Food Security Under Threat

India is already wrestling with food inflation and crop shortages. Retail food prices have been above the RBI’s comfort zone for years. In 2023 poor rains and heat knocked down yields of staples (wheat, rice, sugarcane). The government banned wheat and sugar exports and imposed minimum prices on rice to keep markets stable. Against this backdrop, turning food crops into fuel is perilous. 

NITI Aayog estimates ethanol demand will divert 6.1 mt maize and 5.5 mt rice (~7.1 million hectare), tightening food supply and raising prices—echoing US Renewable Fuel Standard impacts. Expanded sugarcane further displaces crops and strains water, undermining land, water and food security.In short, ethanol endangers three pillars of security: it eats into cropland, it drains aquifers, and it chips away food availability. 

Who Profits &Who Pays?

While communities face scarcity, ethanol producers and associated industries reapprofits, stated to be Rs 20-25 a litre. In other words, ethanol pricing needs drastic cut. 

Companies building new unnecessary distilleries and sugar mills enjoy record demand and generous pricing for ethanol. In a recent tender for the Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2025-26 (starting November), Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) asked for 10.5 billion litres of ethanol, but the domestic industry offered 17.76 billion litres, far exceeding the government’s requirement. 

This massive oversubscription of over 70 percent highlights a significant structural surplus in India’s ethanol capacity, driven by over Rs 40,000 crore in investments in recent years for E20 blending.  

Industry sustains distilleries through mandates, quotas and assured prices, branding E20 as “energy independence,” while effectively socialising environmental costs and privatising profits—leaving the public to bear higher food prices and water stress. 

Backed by floor-ratio-production (FRP) hikes, mandates, subsidies and post-2022 export curbs, distilleries expand as citizens bear the burden on food, water and land. When export restrictions hit sugar in 2022, the sector pivoted to fuel. In states like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, hundreds of proposals for new ethanol distilleries have sprung up, bolstered by tax breaks and subsidies. 

The higher sugarcane FRP and ethanol purchase mandates distillery margins. Ethanol stands out as a classic crisis-with-opportunity: global carbon pressure and oil shocks give industry cover to expand, even as ordinary Indians pay with their food, water and land. 

A False Energy Transition

Biofuel blending offers only limited decarbonisation, as crop-based fuels still emit significant carbon and can worsen emissions through land-use change. It does little to reduce India’s 80–90% oil import dependence, given ethanol’s lower energy density. 

Pushing food crops into fuel production under global climate pressure risks harming food security and growth priorities. India needs independent, context-driven energy strategies that balance emissions with equity and development. It must not succumb to global climate discourse – driven by Western carbon pressure. India’s per capita emissions remain far below the developed world’s, and its priority must be equitable growth and food security. 

Towards Real Energy Security

India’s energy crisis reflects policy gaps, not resource scarcity. Priorities should include boosting energy efficiency to curb demand, scaling solar and wind as truly indigenous alternatives, and optimising transport via rail, buses and electric three-wheelers. Biofuel efforts must focus on waste-based and advanced technologies that avoid food and water stress. Additionally, green hydrogen from renewables offers a viable pathway for industry and heavy transport without burdening farmland. 

Ethanol blending should remain marginal, not central; crop-based fuel risks national resources for limited gains. Policymakers must avoid short-term optics that create long-term economic and ecological costs. 

India’s strategic goal should be securing energy and agriculture simultaneously, not sacrificing one for the other. By all means, use cleaner fuels – but not at the cost of starving our farms and drying our wells. The true path to energy independence lies in myopic promotion of ethanol. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 1 April, 2026

Working India

JOB CREATION CRITICAL

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

India’s challenge is not just job availability, but job quality. Unemployment and underemployment and whether the government has concrete plans to address the needs remains largely ignored. Additionally, there is a widely acknowledged disconnect between what the education system produces and what the labour market demands. Degrees often do not translate into employability. What measures either the Centre or states propose to take to usher in reform are unknown. Electoral politics tends to prioritise short-term narratives—blame, identity issues, or welfare announcements—over detailed employment strategies. Job creation plans, when presented, are often headline-driven (targets, incentives) rather than backed by transparent roadmaps, timelines, and accountability metrics. 

In such a situation, a report titled ‘State of Working India 2026’ noted that between 2004 and 2023 50 lakh-odd graduates were added every year, while the number of employed graduates rose by only around 28 lakh annually, out of which 17 lakh were salaried. Obviously, graduate employment has not kept pace with education because of which educated unemployment and underemployment is a serious spectre across the country. 

The share of graduates among unemployed youth (29-29 years) has more than doubled over the past two decades, at a time when India has made substantial progress in expanding access to higher education for its youth, stated a report released by Azim Premji University recently. Data showed that around 67 per cent of unemployed in 2023 (around 1.1 crore) in the country were graduates, up from 32 per cent in 2004 (30 lakh). At same time, share of graduates among youth has risen to 28 per cent in 2023 (6.3 crore) from just 10 per cent in 2004 (1.9 crore). 

An issue that has not been covered in the report is what percentage has come from the lower segments of society in relation to both the percentage of graduates and those who got employment amongst them. In both these areas, the privileged sections get maximum opportunities, as an established fact. The report has rightly emphasised on skill training, vocational and technical, to increase the chances of employment generation. The world of work must be made class and caste agnostic. 

At a recent conference, Secretary of Higher Education Vineet Joshi, pointed out that India’s education system is changing under the influence of the National Education Policy 2020 and employability and entrepreneurship are now being seen as essential outcomes. But it is difficult to agree with him as the recent budget has not given priority to education and this is evident from the rather poor financial allocation. Moreover, despite all skilling efforts, there is just 20 per cent annual growth in the last three years, forming just 0.3 per cent of the workforce compared to about 4 per cent in the U.K. and Germany. 

At the same conference, Prof. Anil Sahasrabuddhe, Chairman, National Assessment and Accreditation Council (NAAC) stated recently that outdated curricula had long been a complaint from the industry and institutions had been forced to move towards more frequent revision and closer consultation with employers. He and other experts called for continuous curriculum reform in tune with the changing demands of industry. In line with this, the skilling policy needs to be linked to broader job creation, specially in manufacturing and related sectors that can absorb both graduate and non-graduate workers. 

Thus, one cannot but disagree with the poor quality of education imparted in colleges located in rural and backward districts. Moreover, the poor funding to these institutions has aggravated in recent years. Unless there is a strategic transformation, obviously through more allocation of funds in the education sector as well as making the curriculum more job-oriented and introducing more courses in this direction, there may not be any significant change in Indian education and increasing employability.  

The Lokniti-CSDS survey in 2024 found nearly two-thirds of respondents claimed getting jobs harder than five years ago. Many aspire to go abroad for education and better jobs but either lack the resources or opportunities. Moreover, with anti-immigration sentiments rising globally immigration options for India’s Gen Z are getting fewer. 

Many young Indians acknowledge that the government hasn’t delivered on earlier promises on ‘achhe din’ or created millions of new good jobs. However, a section credited Modi with strengthening India’s global standing and projecting confidence about the country’s future. Though a section of young scientists, innovators and engineers and coders are creating new technologies and inventing new ideas in different scientific and engineering dimensions, this is just a very small part of the educated workforce.  Beneath this layer of highly employable talent lies a much larger group of employable talent struggling to find suitable jobs. 

Meanwhile, another side of the unemployment problem is the low payment that is given, even for qualified candidates. The salaries have not kept pace with recent times. On the other hand, though an increasing number of women have been joining the workforce, the payments given to the opposite sex are much lower than their male counterparts. The condition of informal sector workers is even worse. 

The crisis has been aggravated with political parties making false promises before elections but not giving sufficient attention thereafter. The critical situation of most states where industries do not find a congenial climate to grow due to various factors has further hampered the prospect of job creation.   

Steps to increase employment generation are not quite pronounced. However, the Union Cabinet recently approved spending Rs 33,660 crore ($3.63 billion) to develop 100 industrial parks in joint ventures with state governments and a state-run company. This, of course, is a long-term plan which should have been announced much earlier and the government offering financial support of up to Rs 1 crore per acre for core and social infrastructure sounds impressive. But the time taken for these parks to come about is not known though it is understood to generate about 15 lakh direct jobs after all the parks are developed. 

This is not encouraging when job creation needs to be taken up with all urgency. Primarily, as Raghuram Rajan, the former RBI governor rightly pointed out recently, there is a need to expand skilling massively, marrying traditional methods of skilling with modern ones, monitoring provider needs and customer experience and looking for constant improvement. Technological advancement must be inducted into skilling to meet global standards. There is a need to change attitudes towards working with hands, starting in schools. For this the government, both at the Centre and states should prepare an action plan, announcing incentives for small and cottage industries as well as the service sector where there would be considerable job creation. 

Finally, it must be acknowledged that most political parties are still not according adequate priority to the urgent challenge of job creation. Prolonged unemployment and underemployment—particularly among the youth—carry within them the seeds of deep social unrest. Such unrest may not always be immediately visible, but its gradual accumulation can eventually trigger a situation that becomes difficult to manage or contain. Ignoring this reality risks not only economic stagnation but also a serious strain on social stability and public trust.---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 31 March 2026

‘Nari Shakti’ Soon 

HERE’S TO WOMEN POWER
By Poonam I Kaushish 

The countdown for an amended Women Reservation Bill Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam Bill 2023 mandating 33% reservation for women in legislatures in time for the 2029 general election has begun. The Government intends bringing it in the ongoing Parliament session before it is adjourned sine die. Yippee!

The Bill proposes to delink it from the ongoing Census and delimitation exercise which would have followed. As under terms of the existing law, which lists Census and delimitation as pre-requisites, implementing the quota ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha election would have been difficult, if not impossible.

The Government plans to increase Assemblies and Lok Sabha size by 50% whereby the expanded House would have 816 seats from 543 now, of which 273 would be reserved for women. If passed five States: UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur which go to polls early 2027 could include women reservation in enlarged Assemblies.

Alongside, it would keep proportional representation of States untouched in an enlarged House and use lottery to identify seats reserved for the fair sex. However, this would require changing the terms of the Delimitation Commission which would use the 2011 Census figures as its base — not 2027 Census  as the final figures would be released too late to enable delimitation before 2029.

As, keeping the current proportion of State seats in Lok Sabha unchanged would mean a vote in Kerala or Tamil Nadu would carry more weightage than a vote in UP or Bihar. As it stands, southern States worry that a delimitation based on current population would penalize them in terms of proportional representation in Lok Sabha for meeting the national imperative of population control better than some northern and eastern States.

To allay concerns of southern States which account for 24% Lok Sabha seats, each State’s seat share would be retained at the current level. In order to implement this the Government would bring two Bills — one to freeze each State’s seat share at its current level for the next 25-30 years and perhaps another Constitutional amendment of Article 82 which mandates adjusting Lok Sabha seats after every Census.

Towards that end Home Minister Amit Shah had consultations with NDA allies and select Opposition Parties TMC and Left, minus Congress last week proposing 50% expansion of legislative seats which would allow sitting MPs and MLAs, 85% of whom are male, to potentially retain their seats even while making room for women.

Asserted a BJP Minister, “There is dire necessity of affirmative action to improve women’s conditions, as recent studies on Panchayats where there is reservations, have shown the positive effect of female political participation, leadership, women empowerment and allocation of resources. No matter, instances of them being used as proxies by men to win elections in States from Maharashtra to Bihar.

Undeniably, politics of presence is crucial for effective functioning of our democratic system, as women constitute 50% of the population and have played a key role in deciding many State elections. Bihar a case in point. And BJP has won more of those than Opposition.  

Presently, even as we talk about more power to woman, a reality check bares some unpleasant home-truths. Women account for less than 10% of both Houses of Parliament. Women legislators in Lok Sabha account for roughly 13.6% 74 MPs, lower than 78 in 2019 and much below the global average of 24%.

Think. If in 1950 women formed 5% of Parliament, today a mere 9% increase in the last 76 years is a sobering reminder of how slow progress has been. Consequently their under-representation not only reveals gender disparity but also constitutes gender deficit.

Shockingly, States like Tripura, Arunachal, Nagaland and J&K don’t have a single women MP in Lok Sabha. Women representation in State Assemblies is even more glaring. Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Karnataka have fewer than 5%. Mizoram has none and Nagaland one. Surprisingly, Bihar and Haryana boast of 10% fair sex representation. Hence this lack of representation is problematic as legislation reflects the values of those who make it.

Further, there are only a handful of women leaders today: Congress’s Sonia, TMC’s Mamata, BSP’s Mayawati and President Murmu. So unlike the strong female contingent who fought alongside other freedom fighters, Sarojini Naidu, Sucheta Kripalani, Aruna Asaf Ali, Durgabai Deshmukh and Savitri Phule, who not only defied the notorious patriarchal norms but also blazed a trail of women’s empowerment.

Unfortunately, post-Independence India, women slipped to a secondary status where not just leaders, women continue to remain the ‘unwanted’ and neglected sex. Yet, there is no dearth of women workers in Parties who are regularly sidelined and denied Party tickets to contest elections. Despite, 65.8 %, women turnout compared to 65% men during 2024 Parliamentary elections and more women voting than men in 16 of 29 States.

Undisputedly, there is a paucity of strong women in politics with Party bosses often reluctant to trust them with handling the rowdy business of winning elections. Add to this a neglect of women issues in most elected bodies. Questionably: Will this Bill correct centuries-old imbalances and stigma against women? Will increased participation of women in the political process lead to less female infanticide, fewer dowry deaths, bride burning and trampling of female aspirations.

Undoubtedly, Parties recognize that in a changing India, women marginalization, exclusion from power corridors and decision-making echelons is becoming unsustainable, hence, having more women in politics will improve the system and society. Their absence alienates women thereby undermining the system’s legitimacy.

Besides, Parties realize value of women power by the rising turnout of female voters who are slowly closing the gap with male turnouts. Their greater visibility and imprint in public spaces which are rising inexorably. Hence, women power acts as a potent force to ensure policies and legislation that affect their lives, is inclusive and representative of the population needs. Eventually, women-centric policies would heighten political efficacy among female voters.

At the same time one needs to watch out for the danger that gender politics can lead to a ferocious brand of political Puritanism. So far jobs, posts and seats in legislatures have always served as “apples of discord.”

Either way, the legislation has set the stage for a future where nari shakti will play a more substantial role in politics and integral to India’s democratic ethos. Clearly, if the Bill is implemented it will set a unique precedent as the only major democracy globally to implement such affirmative action.

True, the Bill is not a magical fix but a crucial leap forward for women empowerment and gender parity. One hopes it will not end up as an exercise in competitive, reckless populism at its worst. The Constitution has given women equal rights. Reservations will go a long way in facilitating them to build a legacy. A revolutionary change is needed. Merely mouthing platitudes will no longer work. 

The crucial need is to undergo catharsis -- a course in emotive cleansing and giving a push to women empowerment in cementing a cohesive society. It is a good idea to have more women than less. As Nari Shakti is at the cusp of a bright future as our leaders’ help them break the glass ceiling and give them their place in the sun. Time now everyone takes the lead in increasing “Her Voice.” ---- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 30 March 2026

High Fuel, No User Grounds UDAN

BUILD RAIL, NOT RUNWAYS

By Shivaji Sarkar 

At a critical time of fuel scarcity, the push to the nearly a decade-old India’s Regional Connectivity Scheme—UDAN (Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik)—is confronting a hard truth: aviation cannot be socially engineered into viability. 

Despite a renewed push involving tens of thousands of crores in public spending— now again allocated Rs 28,840 crore in expanded commitments—the scheme’s structural weaknesses are becoming more pronounced, not less. The country needs to review the policy as railway and regional metro transit are serving better. 

The bus services are becoming scarce even in cities like Delhi, which has the lowest number of 1300 DTC buses now. Most regions – Bengal to Gujarat - are suffering because of vehicle-scrapping policies, instead of incentivising proper maintenance and diesel junking in favour of high-cost low-utility battery buses with far shorter life, often said to reach half-life in four years.  

What was conceived as a democratisation of air travel risks turning into a cautionary tale of misplaced priorities. Even in the North-East with a difficult terrain could not succeed as most operators ceased services. The reason no different from other areas – routes could not attract enough passengers. 

Between 2020 and March 2026, India saw multiple fatal helicopter and small aircraft crashes involving military, government, and pilgrimage services. Major incidents include 2022 Pawan Hans accident in the Arabian Sea, and several 2025 crashes in Uttarakhand’s Kedarnath sector killing multiple pilgrims. 

The region has seen repeated accidents due to difficult terrain, unpredictable weather, and heavy traffic. Common causes include Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) and low visibility. Authorities have periodically suspended services and tightened safety norms, but risks remain significant as the latest Baramati accident of a private company plane killing Maharashtra minister Ajit Pawar shows. 

Infrastructure Without Passengers

UDAN’s premise was simple: build airports, subsidise airlines, and demand will follow. But aviation demand does not arise from infrastructure alone. It is a function of income, business activity, and time sensitivity. 

Many small airports revived under the scheme remain underutilised or intermittently operational. Seven airports were closed in Uttar Pradesh alone. Ayodhya airport has hardly any commercial flight. The reason is straightforward—passenger volumes are too low. India’s air traffic continues to be concentrated along major metro and high-density routes, while Tier-III towns lack the economic base to sustain regular flights.Even where routes exist, load factors remain weak. Aircraft often fly half-empty, making operations commercially unviable despite subsidies. 

The Broken Economics of Small Aircraft

Regional aviation depends on turboprops and small aircraft. These planes are ideal for short runways but are significantly more expensive per seat than larger jets.It has been surviving on viability gap funding by the government (VGF), which now again is extended by Rs 10,042 crore. Airlines grumble that the payments are delayed and say subsidies cannot compensate indefinitely for poor economics. 

Smaller airlines operating these routes have struggled with thin margins, high maintenance costs, and low yields.Many have either exited or reduced operations. In several cases, routes survived only when taken over by larger carriers deploying bigger aircraft—defeating the purpose of regional connectivity. 

The Fuel Shock: Iran War Changes the Equation

If UDAN was already fragile, the ongoing Iran conflict has exposed its vulnerability.The war has disrupted global energy flows and pushed up aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, which already account for 30–40% of airline operating costs.Since early March 2026, fuel prices have surged due to supply disruptions, forcing Indian airlines such as Air India, IndiGo, and Akasa Air to impose fuel surcharges. 

For regional aviation, this is devastating. Small aircraft operations are highly fuel-sensitive. Unlike major carriers, regional operators lack the financial strength to absorb shocks or hedge fuel costs. In effect, the Iran war has not just increased costs—it has rendered the UDAN model even more unsustainable. 

Rising Costs, Falling Demand

The crisis is not limited to fuel. Currency depreciation, maintenance costs, and insurance premiums have all risen, adding pressure on airlines.At the same time, passenger growth has slowed. India’s aviation sector is expected to incur losses of up to Rs 10,500 crore in FY2026 due to high costs and subdued traffic. 

This combination—rising costs and weak demand—is lethal for regional routes. Airlines respond predictably: cut frequencies, withdraw from routes, or avoid smaller airports altogether.UDAN, designed in a low-cost, high-growth environment, is now operating in a high-cost, uncertain one. 

Uniform Pricing, Unequal Pain

One of the most overlooked flaws of the scheme is its pricing distortion. Subsidised fares and flat cost structures do not reflect market realities.In practice, small exporters, low-income passengers, and thin routes bear disproportionate burdens. When costs rise—especially fuel—there is little flexibility to adjust pricing without killing demand altogether. It also compromises with safety in a fragile ecosystem. 

Connectivity vs Viability: Rail vs Air

The government’s response to UDAN’s shortcomings has been to expand—adding over 100 destinations, more helipads, and committing large public funds. Yet expansion does not fix viability; it spreads inefficiency. Each new airport brings fixed costs—maintenance, staffing, security—without assured passenger traffic, risking underused assets turning into liabilities. The real question is not whether UDAN can grow, but whether it should. 

India’s connectivity needs are undeniable, but aviation is not always the best solution. For distances of 300–800 km, railways—especially trains like Vande Bharat Express—offer faster, cheaper, and more energy-efficient travel. Railways carry more passengers, require less investment, and integrate better with local transport systems. Strengthening rail links between Tier-II and Tier-III cities could yield far higher returns than building idle airports. 

At its core, UDAN reflects a policy contradiction: treating aviation as a public good while expecting private airlines to operate profitably on weak routes. This has led to a cycle of expansion, underperformance, and repeated funding. With rising fuel costs, safety concerns, and weak demand, regional aviation cannot survive on subsidies alone. In many cases, the answer lies not in more flights—but in better trains. 

A more rational approach would prioritise economic viability over geographic coverage, and invest where demand already exists—or can realistically emerge.In many parts of India, that may not mean more flights.It may simply mean better trains.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)