Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 6 May 2024

‘Apical’ GST Hits SC Quiz

30 Cr. JOB LOSS FEARED

By Shivaji Sarkar 

The sparkle of GST touchinga collection of Rs 2.1 lakh crore due to higher contribution from North East states and Uttar Pradeshis subdued by shattering of the Indian dream for overseas employment as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau creates more diplomatic problems and targets Indian youth to deprive them of jobs. 

Foreign job situation is becoming worse even as the domestic conditionboils with high unemployment and Lok Sabha elections generating more heat. In a year marked by a surge in Indian students pursuing foreign education, those already studying abroad are facing significant challenges in securing jobs. The rising cost of living combined with limited job opportunities is shattering dreams of many non-resident Indians (NRIs). 

Diplomatic spats add to woes. While India lodges strong protest on pro-Khalistan slogans raised at an event on April 29 in Toronto in which Trudeau spoke, almost simultaneously the US raised the heat over plot to kill Khalistan separatist GS Pannun.The events have a fall out on jobs for Indians, though reasons could include economic turmoil in many of the western countries. 

Canada, one of the topmost destinations for Indian youth, on Labour Day limits international students working hours to 24 hours a week from 40 hours and curtails startup visa plan to less than 1000. This cuts intake from India to 87,000 study permits against 2.2 lakh new students in 2022. 

On an average a student loses $5000 a year, says Mateusz Salamassi, Canadian Director of advocacy, Canadian Alliance of Students Association, a blow to debt-ridden Indian students. Most students have debts of Rs 20 to 40 lakh, which they repay as they work while studying. Cost of living is rising. Rents range from $1,000 to $1,500 per month. Additionally, expenses for food, transport, and utilities cost at least another $1,000 to $1,200 every month. 

With 6.1 per cent unemployment reported in Canada, many end up without jobs or get into menial works that is not in keeping with their needs or qualifications. As the going gets tough, many students are turning to drugs to cope up with the stress and get into a worse debt and psychic situations. 

Jobs are becoming dearer across the West as International Monetary Fund warns of 60 percent high skilled jobs at risk in advanced economies and predicts 40 per cent jobs to be impacted due to AI, in 2024. Severe wage cuts are imminent, it adds. The International Labour Organisation (ILO) says two million jobs are at stake.Global rating agency Goldman Sachs predicts disruption of 300 million (30 crore) jobs across the world. 

While rising 12.4 percent April GST mop up of the highest ever Rs 2.1 lakh crore (trillion) elates the Finance Ministry, which says, it is the result of intense auditing,there is a crackdown on bogus registration, fake invoices and norms are tightening.Domestic transactions rise by 13.4 percent while the import figures are up by 8.3 percent. 

Observing “there can be harassment of people,” the Supreme Court on May 2, directs the additional solicitor general SV Raju to submit data in GST Act notices and the arrests made “for alleged defaults of Rs 1 and Rs 5 crore”.Interestingly, North-East led the GST show. Mizoram, with 35 percent rural poverty, led it with 52 percent, Nagaland had 3 percent lower contribution with Meghalaya and Jammu &Kashmir 2 percent less and Sikkim kitty fell 5 percent. Elsewhere, the highest growth was in UP – 19 percent, Gujarat and Maharashtra - 13 percent. 

However, the rise in GST is not an indicator of increase in employment. Periodic Labour Force Survey 2023 indicates the unemployment rate at 7.2 percent in December 2022 and 6.5 percent December 2023 and CMIE puts it at 8 percent in February 2024 and 7.6 percent in March.In April 2024, major tech companies like Tesla, Apple, Intel Amazon resorted to mass layoffs and overall job losses are estimated at 70,000. Even Byjus lays off 500 Indian staff.  

Jobs worldwide are becoming scarce as artificial intelligence (AI) takes over many assignments. It is no better in the UK. Even restaurants are sacking them too often. Foreign student, health&care and skilled work visa applications to UK also fall with new curbs.Other visas fall by 44 percent to 40,700 against 72,800 last year. It cuts application for dependent visas to 6,700 against 32,900 a year back. Foreign students no longer can switch to a work visa before completing their course and graduate visa norms might limit job prospects. The US offers a slightly bright spot for Indianstudents. It issued a total of 1,30,839 F-1 student visas in 2023, witnessing a 14 per cent surge from 2022, says an ApplyBoard report. 

The ILO projects that the labour market outlook and global unemployment will both worsen. In 2024, an extra two million workers are expected to be looking for jobs, raising the global unemployment rate to 5.2 per cent from 5.1 per cent in 2023. 

The AI expansion could worsen impact on developing economies such as India, which are facing political turmoil for job losses. An added woe could be degrees might lose shelf life as technical skills would require continuous updating, learning and adaptation throwing up challenges for Indian universities. Even many companies might go out of business. The world has yet to evolve pro-active measures to cope up with AItransformation. 

The IT sector is already resorting to heavy job cuts. Google has issued pink slips to over 1,000 employees assisting in voice assistance, hardware and engineering teams.  It also implemented job cuts across Python, Flutter and Dart teams.The job loss in IT sector is a major problem along with many other Indian industries. More than 40 percent of college graduates under the age of 25 are unemployed, compared with 11 percent of those of the same age group who are literate but haven’t completed primary school, says Azim Premji University 2023 report. 

India would have to launch crash moves to create jobs to keep the economy in the lead. It is not an easy task with job recruitment scandals in West Bengal, UP, Madhya Pradesh and many other states.While AI is certain to make its way into numerous Indian industries, the country has to take the best advantage of it in creating multifarious jobs as well.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Spotlight

New Delhi, 4 May 2024

On-Line Education

NOT JUST AN EMERGENCY MEASURE

By Rajiv Gupta 

In the recent student protests at Columbia University in New York City, the university administration decided to use on-line classes as a way to mitigate the potential danger to students. Globally, on-line classes were widely adopted during the Coronavirus pandemic to keep students from spreading the virus through proximate contact with each other. These examples may suggest that on-line education is a means to be adopted under extreme circumstances. This article presents an alternate view; that on-line education is an ideal solution for a variety of reasons and whose time has come. 

Distance education, a precursor to on-line education, is not new. Some of the earliest versions of distance education were correspondence courses as far back as the 1950s and 60s. Written course materials were sent by mail to students. The students completed the assignments at home and sent in their answer sheets to be evaluated. The quality of these programmes was not very good and they did not receive any recognition from companies looking for qualified candidates for potential hiring. 

In the 1980s, a different form of distance education began in the United States. In these programmes, video tapes of lectures were recorded and mailed out to students at different learning centres. A sizeable group of students watched the tapes at these learning centres. Proctored exams were conducted at these learning centres. This form of distance learning was a major improvement from the earlier correspondence courses. However, its major drawbacks were a lack of direct communication between the faculty and students as well as among the students. 

The next development in distance learning was streaming videos, which allowed students to stream lectures instead of watching video tapes. This made the access to the lectures more flexible. However, there was still no direct communication between the faculty and students, and among the students. All communication was through a learning management system (LMS) such as Canvas and Blackboard. The LMS contained all the relevant course materials, including videos and lecture notes. Communications could be either via the LMS or via email. 

The current form of on-line education uses live, on-line classes where the faculty delivers the lectures and the students can choose to either attend the lectures live, or watch the taped lecture at their convenience. The system permits the students to either type in their questions or comments during the lecture, or to speak. This allows for a classroom atmosphere that more closely resembles a typical in-person classroom. In some cases, students can also turn on their cameras and can be seen as well. The extent to which this is possible depends on the size of the class as well as the network bandwidth. It should be noted that, in India, several students still shy away from speaking in on-line classes, let alone turning their cameras on. However, this is likely to change over time. 

So, what are the main advantages and disadvantages of an on-line education system? There are three major, and compelling, reasons in favour of on-line education. First, it allows educational institutions to expand their academic offerings to a larger student population without a large scale increase in classroom capacity. This is especially important since most existing universities have limited capacity to increase the number or sizes of classrooms. For residential universities there is an additional need to provide residential accommodation for students if the student strength is increased. In an on-line environment using virtual classrooms, the one major expense is in the creation of the computer and video systems for transmitting on-line classes. This is relatively easier than creating more physical space. 

The second major advantage, especially in a country such as India, is that on-line education can help bring education to a larger section of the population without having students travel to a limited number of locations where high quality educational institutions are situated. With a population that is spread out over a very large geographical expanse, including a number of rural areas, providing access to quality education is a major challenge for both government as well as academia. 

Every year, cut-off percentages for admission to sought after colleges and institutes seems to get further out of reach of a large section of the students graduating from schools. In the last couple of decades, a number of colleges and institutions of dubious quality have sprung up in the country in response to the increased demand. It would be preferable for well established institutions to expand their offerings via on-line classes as there would be an expectation of quality from established institutes. 

Finally, the population where on-line education has a major impact is working professionals. It has been well established that with technological change, and new research, a lot of what people learn in colleges and universities becomes obsolete in a few years. This phenomenon has resulted in working professionals having to keep their knowledge up to date either through evening or full-time courses. Evening courses require that working professionals travel or commute to the place where classes are held, which can consume a significant amount of time. Full time courses require working professionals to take time off from work to pursue their studies. 

Both of these options pose a major burden both, on the professional as well the companies they work for. It is here where on-line education becomes a very appropriate option. The classes for the on-line courses can be attended by the students either at their place of work, or at home, or any other convenient location. Moreover, if the student has to miss a class due to work requirement, the lecture is available on tape. So, the student can get all the information that he/she misses quite easily. 

This is why a number of universities in India and abroad have been offering on-line courses successfully. Some examples are BITS Pilani in India, and the University of Phoenix in the US. In addition to degree programs, leading universities such as Stanford and MIT have collaborated in offering free on-line courses on various topics. These are known as Massive Open On-line Courses (MOOC). Coursera, Udacity, and edX offer a very large number of MOOC courses where the student can choose to either attend for free, or pay a nominal fee to get a certificate. The faculty who have recorded the lectures for these MOOC courses are from leading global universities and the quality of the lectures is excellent. 

Although the number of on-line courses and their quality has grown exponentially, there is still a perception that the quality of on-line courses is inferior to live in-person classes. It will take some time before the true advantages of on-line education will be recognised in the society. Universities have to focus on maintaining high quality and invest in technology and faculty who can deliver an effective on-line experience for students. It may not be too long before on-line education is accorded its rightful place in academia.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

REWIND

New Delhi, 2 May 2024

FAIR FIGHT REQUIRES FAIR FLIGHTS

By Inder Jit

(Released on 4 July 1989) 

Thoughts in New Delhi and elsewhere in the country are turning once again towards ways and means of ensuring a free and fair poll, now that the general election is fast approaching. Successive polls over the past 37 years have no doubt been largely free and fair. Nevertheless, the Election Commission, headed by Mr. R.V.S. Peri Sastri, has spoken from Tirupati not a day too soon in calling upon all the political parties to follow the Model Code of Conduct. Specifically, they have asked the Centre and the States to ensure that there is no cause for complaint about “utilisation” of their official position for the purposes of electioneering. The Commission has also done well to have suggested once again incorporation of six items of the Model Code as “corrupt practices” for electoral purposes in a bid to prevent the party in power from misusing its authority and position for gaining electoral advantage.

The Model Code of Conduct specifically lays down: “(a) The Ministers shall not combine their official visit with the electioneering work and shall not make use of official machinery or personnel during electioneering work; (b) Government transport, including official aircraft, vehicles, machinery and personnel cannot be used for furtherance of the Party in power.”  It thus bars Ministers from doing two things. One, combining their official duties with electioneering. Two, using Government transport, including official aircraft, for furtherance of the interest of the party in power. Yet, all our Prime Ministers have used IAF planes for election purposes from the days of Nehru. Indira Gandhi did so time and again. So also did Charan Singh prior to the 1960 poll which swept Indira Gandhi back to power. Mr Morarji Desai as Prime Minister, too, used this facility during the 1977 Assembly elections.

The issue burst into the open again in December 1984 when the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, Mr N.T. Rama Rao approached the Election mission for permission to use a Government helicopter for electioneering. But the then Chief Election Commissioner, Mr R.K. Trivedi, turned down the request and justified his decision on the ground that the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh was not the only Chief Minister who had been refused permission. He said that the Chief Ministers of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, UP and Manipur had also sought permission to use official aircraft for electioneering. All of them had been refused permission. Mr Trivedi also asserted that the Prime Minister alone was permitted to use the official aircraft for electioneering. The use of the official aircraft by Central Ministers, Chief Ministers and their Cabinet colleagues was prohibited under the Model Code of Conduct. No exceptions could be made.

Was the CEC’s stand fair? Before answering the question, we would do well to take a fresh look at the convention even if it was established during Nehru’s time. Nehru, according to “India from Curzon to Nehru and After” by Durga Das, was initially against using IAF planes. He did not think it proper to travel for his election campaign in the plane he used for official purposes as the Prime Minister. At the same time, “neither he nor the Congress Party could afford to charter a plane for the purpose.” The then Auditor General, Mr. Narahari Rao, thereupon came to the ruling party’s rescue and “salved Nehru’s conscience by devising a convenient formula.” He said, “The PM’s life must be secured against all risks and this could be assured best if he travelled by air. Air Transport would obviate the need for the large security staff required if he travelled by rail. Since it was the nation’s responsibility to see to his security, the nation must pay for it”.

An equally obliging committee of senior officers recommended in 1951 the use of the IAF planes by the Prime Minister “for official as well as other types of journeys.” The committee argued and the Government agreed that “even though the Prime Minister undertake tours for electioneering as a party leader, the business of Government does not come to a standstill.” It was, therefore, the responsibility of Government also to provide adequate facilities which would enable the Prime Minister to attend to governmental functions even while on tour. The new rule then framed enabled the Prime Minister to use IAF planes by paying the Government the normal fare charged by the civil airlines for transporting a passenger. Thus, Nehru was able to acquire through the payment of a nominal amount a mobility which multiplied a hundred fold his effectiveness as a campaigner and vote catcher!

The CEC’s decision on NTR’s request was clearly unfair. (Actually Mr. Trivedi conveniently slipped up on his facts.) The considerations which made it necessary to permit the Prime Minister to use the official aircraft for electioneering all over the country apply equally to the Chief Minister -- at least within his own state. Like the Prime Minister, the Chief Minister does not cease being a Chief Minister when he undertakes journeys for reasons other than official. He, too, needs to be able to travel by official aircraft for the due performance of his or her duties as the head of Government as well for reasons of security. Understandably, the issue did not arise during Nehru’s time. He was his party’s principal campaigner and there were no Chief Ministers belonging to the Opposition who wanted official aircraft. We have now not only Chief Ministers who belong to the “Opposition” but also convenient and fuel saving helicopters.

More. Is it fair to allow the Prime Minister alone to use official aircraft and that too virtually for a song? The use of official aircraft enabled Mr Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 to campaign in some 300 constituencies. In sharp contrast, the Opposition leaders were nowhere near Mr Gandhi’s record performance, which was one up on the hurricane poll tours undertaken by Indira Gandhi. A pertinent question that arises is: Should not official planes also be available to the Opposition leaders? Without exception, the Opposition leaders answer in the affirmative. One top leader urged: “Once the poll is announced, the Prime Minister’s status and privilege must change in favour of equality with the other party leaders. If security is an over-riding consideration, it must be extended to the leaders of the other recognised parties also. In the U.S., all the Presidential candidates are provided equal facilities.”

Clearly, there is need to consider the whole matter afresh in the light of conventions in other democracies. In the UK, the Prime Minister does not use official transport for electioneering. In a classic case, Attlee campaigned in his own car driven by his wife and accompanied by merely one detective. In Canada, use of official aircraft by the Prime Minister for party purposes is acknowledged on all sides as an unfair advantage and, therefore, avoided. In the USA, the President can use the Air Force plane as assigned to him for his poll campaign. However, he has to reimburse the Air Force on actual cost basis. In India in 1967, Mrs Gandhi used IAF planes for her 46-day poll campaign round the country and paid no more than Rs 8,650. During the mid-term poll in UP in 1969, she was charged Rs 6 and a few odd paisas only for a 20-minute helicopter ride from Deoria to Kasia, an air distance of 20 miles!

True, the use of IAF official planes does not necessarily spell victory. These did not save either Indira Gandhi in 1977 or Charan singh in 1980 from defeat. (Tragically, Charan Singh failed to implement as Prime Minister his own plea as an Opposition leader that identical facilities should be made available to the Opposition in all fairness.) Nevertheless, there should be no scope for any feeling of unfairness. The Election Commission should even now correct the wrongs committed during the past many polls and allow the Opposition and their Chief Ministers the use of official aircraft on the same basis as available to the Prime Minister. As the ruling party, the Congress-I may be tempted to disagree. But its leaders would do well to remember that a party may be in power today and in opposition tomorrow. Statesmanship lies in taking a detached long-term view. The poll should not only be fair, but must also be seen to be fair.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi,  l May,  2024

Intentional Distortions

CONFUSING VOTER FOR POWER

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Distortion of facts, ‘hate speech’ and even misinterpretation of court judgments,appear to be near normal this general election. It should be a cause concern for the electorate, but unfortunately masses do get swayed with the rhetoric and the hysteria created around, given sheer ignorance and low level of education. Allowing political parties and their star campaigners to play merry havoc with sentiments, particularly veering around religion. 

Prime Minister Modi’s speech in Rajasthan’s Banswara is one such glaring case, among others,which has been written a lot about. Modi, as per fact checking, distorted former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh speech in 2009, wherein he has stated that the marginalised had priority in any scheme of redistribution of wealth. However, Modi thought it prudent to give this a religious turn by saying that if the Congress is elected to power, it would do what Singh wanted i.e. give away the wealth of the nation to ‘infiltrators’ and ‘those who have more children meaning Muslims along with the mangalsutras of women. 

The Congress, Left parties and civil society groups complained to the Election Commission of India against Modi's divisive remarks, stating it was a clear violation of the model code of conduct. The complaint observed: “Shri Modi distorted the statement and peddled a lie with a clear objective of creating fear among the Hindus that the opposition Congress Party would give the wealth of the country to Muslims”. Note, Article 39(b) of the Constitution provides that the State should direct its policy towards securing “that the ownership and control of the material resources of the community are so distributed to subserve the common good”. 

Recall that Vinoba Bhave started the bhoodan movement to urge big landowners to give a part of their landholdings to poor farmers. The sharing of one’s resources with the poorer sections of the community is something that needs to be inculcated amongst the rich and become part of our national policy.  

On its part, the BJP also issued complaints to the Election Commission against Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi. The BJP said that in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, Rahul alleged that the prime minister was attacking “our language, history, and tradition” and brining about a north-south divide. It also accused Kharge of violating the model code by claiming that he was not invited to the Ram temple consecration ceremony due to discrimination against SCs and STs.  

Lately, another controversy has erupted regarding inheritance tax. A few countries have this tax and the most important country in this category is the US. Sam Pitroda, chairman of Indian Overseas Congress, said in a recent interview that the inheritance tax in America was “interesting law” and could be an issue that people could debate and discuss. He clearly pointed out the redistribution of wealth entails new policies and programmes that are in the interest of the common people and not in the interest of the super-rich only. Pitroda’s comments gave additional ammunition to Prime Minister Modi, who appears to have relegated ‘Viksit Bharat’ campaign to the back seat after the first round of voting and instead playing the Hindu-Muslim polarisation card. 

Modi grabbed the opportunity to accuse the Congress of planning to impose an inheritance tax, raising the slogan “Congress ki loot, zindagi ke saath bhi, zindagi ki baad bhi”.  This is misleading and moving away from the real issue and a subtle attempt to protect interests of the rich. He said that the late Rajiv Gandhi had abolished the inheritance tax to “save his property” but, in reality, the abolition was effective for deaths after March 16, 1985 – over four months after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, making Rajiv ineligible for its benefits. 

Experts believe that the redistribution of private assets have the potential to solve the problem of widening inequality accompanied by unemployment, poverty and hopelessness that induced 170,000 suicides in India in 2022, 27 percent more than in 2018. At no point in our known history has the proportion of the population experiencing absolute deprivation been as low as it is today. One may mention here that economic growth without grass-root development has no meaning. The point is to broaden the participative base of economic activity as a portion of growth would accrue to those creating it. But the political leadership is not focussing on restoring citizens with rights and dignity and providing adequate and quality education, healthcare and infrastructure, physical as well as financial. 

The other development pertains to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who has been trying frantically to distort a High Court order and questioning the integrity of judges in scrapping over 25,000 teaching and non-teaching posts. Not just her, but TMC leaders have been quoted saying the judges were working on the advice of the BJP.The court stated: “all appointments granted in the selection processes involved being violative of Articles 14 and 16 of the Constitution of India are declared null and void and cancelled . . . SSC, State and Board have perseveringly non-cooperated so that even the possibility of trying to separate the grain from the chaff could be rendered nugatory.”. 

The order referred to the scam of being one of unprecedented dimension, which obviously cannot be doubted and, as such, the court scrapped the whole panel of 2016. Banerjee stated that the judgment was passed into a “mandir, masjid or gurdwara” but in “BJP’s bicharalaya (court)”. While telling the common people that she wanted to give jobs to the deserving, criticism of the judiciary and insinuation of judges is, no doubt, jarring. Even TMC General Secretary Abhishek Banerjee said, “a section of Calcutta HC is in a nexus with the BJP”. A case has been filed against the chief minister. 

Politics has undoubtedly reached a new low with leaders intentionally distorting facts to gain political mileage. Sadly, they do not feel the need to get down to basic issues which matter to the common man. Principles and ideologies are being sacrificed at the altar of politics and leaders’wealth is surging ahead. Such mischief has unfortunately been continuing and civil society is not strong enough to thwart such intent. Both at the Central and state levels, the spirit of dissent has been broken by authoritarian tendencies. This has been clearly highlighted by Western media, which is increasingly doubting India as a true democracy. 

Free and fair elections are bedrock of democracy. The electorate must be able to make a well-informed decision and be given the confidence that his vote will help bring a government which cares for its well-being. And it is the Election Commission which too must play its role and be above board. Distortion of facts and confusing the voter defeats the entire exercise, and it must actively step in and call out the guilty leaders, whichever party it may be. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)