Political Diary

New Delhi, 14 May 2024

Kejriwal Out, Soren In

DIFFERENT STROKES FOR NETAS?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

When truth becomes a casualty, you end up with only babble. This lexicon alongside another Orwellian truism: Some men are more equal than others stands, testimony to our continuing dance of democracy interspersed with vicious diatribe between BJP and INDIA Bloc as our fractured polity enters the fifth phase of polling with 132 seats Lok Sabna up for grabs. A sense of de ja vu overwhelms. 

Certainly, taint, caste and creed are the incessant flavour of this electoral political season. Wherein power and smear go saath-saath. If yesterday bail granted to Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal and AAP Chief for his role in irregularities and kickbacks in the now scrapped 2021 Delhi liquor policy, hogged headlines, today the sun did not shine on former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren as Supreme Court refused interim bail in connection with a money laundering case linked to an alleged land scam worth crores. Posting the matter for hearing 17 May. Earlier Jharkhand High Court had dismissed Soren's petition against his arrest 3 May. The JMM leader was arrested on 31 January after he resigned as Chief Minister. 

A classic case of different strokes for different folks.

Citing the recent release from jail of Kejriwal as an example, Soren’s plea too was aimed at allowing his participation in campaigning for his JMM Party in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. “My case is covered by Kejriwal's order and I need bail for election campaigning highlighting the imminent conclusion of elections,” Soren's lawyer argued.

It stands to reason that if the same Bench granted interim bail to Kejriwal 10 May till 1 June to campaign for elections and surrender on 2 June why not to Soren as both cases relate to Party Chiefs as also both being Chief Ministers of their respective States. 

Specially against the background of the Court’s observation, “There is no gain saying that elections are the most significant and an important event this year ..... to ignore the prodigious importance would be iniquitous and wrong....supplying the vis-viva to a democracy.” Even as it made clear that bail was not a comment on the merits of the case or on the pending appeal against his arrest 21 March. It highlighted elections as the “barometer and lifeline of the Parliamentary system and its setup and ignoring elections prodigious importance would be iniquitous and wrong.”. 

True, it is debateable whether the right to campaign can be grounds of bail as it is not fundamental, Constitutional or legal right. But as the Court surmised that since Kejriwal is neither a habitual offender or threat to society but an elected representative of people and Party Chief he was given bail. But that hold true of Soren too, but he got no relief. 

The Court for reasons hard to fathom also dismissed Enforcement Directorate’s logic: It would create two classes of citizens and privilege politicians over others. If a politician could get interim bail to campaign, then a farmer or a company director was entitled to the same relief to attend his crops or a board meeting respectively, as all vocations were equal in stature. 

The Court however, asserted granting a political leader interim bail to campaign for polls could not be compared to either a farmer seeking bail to tend to his harvest or a businessman wanting to attend a board meeting. Instead, a “more holistic and libertarian view is justified as an elected person is not just an individual but the people’s representative and participation in campaign is an inextricable part of elections. 

Undeniably, the Court order on Kejriwal is extraordinary as it is attempts to send a message on the Opposition’s charge of misuse of CBI, ED etc by the Government to harass leaders opposed to it. It also underlines that in the garb of criminal procedure democracy cannot be undermined and leaders arrested on election eve in name of investigation and Courts will not be mute spectators. 

Further, in TDP Chief Chandrababu Naidu’s case too, the Apex Court had “deleted the condition restraining the respondent” from participating in the political process while granting him interim bail. 

Undoubtedly, granting bail could open Pandora’s box for more politicians and criminals-turned netas to exploit this loophole. They may use the poll period and the pretense of campaigning in elections to any of the three-tier system --- Centre, State or local level elections as a fatal flaw to avoid a jail term. 

In fact, it has raised apprehensions that hardcore criminals could infiltrate elections and seek relief from Courts based on this ground, which has now been deemed one of the legitimate grounds for relief. While it may not be a clinching ground for Courts to grant bail, it may establish it as an extra ground to seek relief and cast aspersions on the trial process and tilt the balance of scale in favour of the appellant. 

Furthermore, this could create a new category of litigation for criminals who might include Kejriwal’s case as additional argument, whereby it might end up hampering the merits of the case permanently including putting influence on witnesses, evidence tampering and quid-pro-quo. This could occur in cases where agencies, constrained by time since the commencement of investigation, fail to gather conclusive evidence, in time, to outweigh this newly established ground for relief. 

Also, others leaders who have not been proven guilty in a Court too might seek temporary relief during election period, as bypassing the merits of a case renders every defence of the probing agency futile in preventing relief or bail on grounds of campaigning. 

Big deal if the order underscored that politicians are truly a separate class, higher in status than ordinary citizen and immune from arrest. Whereby, even ordinary people and every criminal would vie to be a politician and turn campaigners to stay out of prison. 

It has already started roiling with Khalistani separatist and Waris Punjab De Chief Amritpal Singh detained under the National Security Act recently seeking similar relief for seven days from Punjab and Haryana High Court to file his nomination as an independent candidate to contest elections and campaign which is not possible from jail. But the Court denied his pleas as “it is the concern of the nation and security.”

Alongside, it raises disturbing questions about our democracy. That it does not strike any chord among our leaders who have reduced graft to a farcical political pantomime. There is no sense of outrage or shame. Can one compromise on corruption? Does politics force an indulgence on issues of governance and probity? Is this part of political dharma? 

Alas, a fine distinction is drawn between a “politically-motivated” charge and actual conviction. Such is the intoxicating nasha of power that all conveniently choose to shrug it off. Dismissed at best as an aberration and at worst a squeaky knee with which one can live with. 

At stake today is not only the functioning of the largest democracy but its Constitutional agenda which is more substantive than partisan politics. Consequently, where we go from here would depend on how citizens use democratic levers available to them. What gives? ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 13 May 2024

Gold New World Currency

RBI’S RESERVES SWELL! 

By Shivaji Sarkar 

In a strategic move reminiscent of Indian households safeguarding their wealth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is fortifying the nation’s economic resilience by actively acquiring gold reserves. This bold initiative mirrors the prudence of household savers, as the central bank positions itself to shield against potential economic turmoil and bolster the country's financial stability. 

The RBI now has accumulated gold reserves of 817 tonnes. This surge can be attributed to a combination of factors including escalating tensions in West Asia, Israel assault on Palestine, the Russia-Ukraine war, and persistent inflation, all of which have heightened the appeal of gold. 

Central banks worldwide are actively accumulating gold to diversify reserves and reduce dependency on the US dollar. China, in particular, has been on a gold-buying spree for the 17th consecutive month, aiming to hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks. The world is unofficially going back to gold standards it abandoned in 1971. 

India is also hit by a continuous six-day fall in the stock market. It wipes out a significant investment. The loss is estimated at Rs 7 lakh crore. The household savers, of course, got their savings dipped as unemployment and rising prices hit them. Though RBI. in a clarificatory note on May 9, mentions that “they are putting their savings into real estate and the central bank is not worried of the phenomenon”.   

The bank itself has stepped up gold purchases to “help diversify its foreign exchange reserves base amid the US dollar volatility”. The US inflation rate in February hit 3.2 per cent year over year. Since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022, it has raised rates to 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent in July 2023. It’s holding further raise in view of the US elections. 

The price of gold has surged over 10 per cent since the start of the year, cementing its status as a preferred hedge against inflation and a sanctuary amid political and economic uncertainty. This significant uptick is largely due to considerable purchases by central banks and a rising demand for safe-haven assets. 

Gold prices, in India, have been experiencing a significant surge in 2024, with a remarkable rally that has propelled them to an unprecedented all-time high of over Rs 73,000 per 10 gm two days before Akshay Tritiya, when customary gold purchases reach a peak. This surge represents an impressive increase of approximately 21.1 per cent within the span of just one year. On the day of Akshaya Tritiya on May 10, it has slightly dipped to Rs 72,788. Over six months, domestic gold prices surged from Rs 54000 per 10 grams to a record high of Rs 73,958. 

One can realise that nothing can appreciate faster than the gold and can’t question the RBI’s sagacity. One dollar is at Rs 83.88. Rupee is expected to rise to Rs 82.50 in six months, a gain of about a 1.1 per cent, and in a year it could rise to Rs 82 - a gain of 1.7 per cent. It means the RBI dollar reserves would lose about 2 per cent value in a year. So, the RBI has decided to buy more gold than dollars. Its investment would be less at even Rs 73000 for 10 gm and gains over 20 per cent. That’s an intelligent economy.

The RBI has increased gold purchases to diversify reserves, with gold value contributing to a $3 billion rise in forex reserves to $648.5 billion. The RBI is acquiring more gold in early 2024, aiming for diversification and inflation hedging. The World Gold Council (WGC) says that RBI gold purchases touch 19 tonnes during January-March. This dwarfs the 16 tonnes of gold it bought in the whole of 2023. 

In terms of countries with the highest gold reserves, USA leads with 8,133 tonnes, followed by Germany, Italy, France, and the Russian Federation with 3,366.49, 2,451.84, 2,436.01, and 2,271.16 tonnes of gold, respectively, according to WGC. The surge in central banks’ gold acquisitions stemmed from the aftermath of the US imposition of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, included freezing Russian reserve dollars and imposing restrictions on crucial commodity trades such as crude oil. The global repercussions of these measures were profound, exposing vulnerabilities within Western financial institutions. 

The option of investments in the stocks has become riskier. In February, China divested an additional $22.7 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, as per the latest Federal Reserve data, reducing its total holdings to $775 billion. Despite this decrease, China retains its position as the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. China is reducing its dependence on dollar, as per US Federal Reserve data. 

According to ICICI direct study, the RBI wants to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar. Gold offers stability and isn’t directly tied to the performance of any one currency. It can be especially valuable during times of economic uncertainty or fluctuations in the dollar’s value. Gold is considered as a hedge against inflation. When the value of currencies weakens due to inflation, gold tends to hold its value or even increase. It protects the purchasing power of India’s foreign reserves. 

The diversification of the portfolio to gold reserve, RBI says, can inspire confidence in the Indian economy from foreign investors. It signals a strong financial position and stability, potentially attracting more foreign investment. While less common today, gold can still be used for international transactions. Holding a gold reserve allows India to settle debts with other countries if needed, even if those countries aren’t willing to accept the rupee. 

The next few years can be times of turmoil and gold can be a stabilising factor in the international economy. It is particularly so as the IT sector, industry, markets are in a destabilised condition and would take time to calm. At such volatile times, gold is likely to be more in demand than paper currencies. The RBI has resorted to the right move and lead the India economy, which has been striving to become one of the major world economies.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 11 May 2024

‘Religious Minorities’ Study

POLITICAL ARENA FLARES UP

By Insaf 

The debate on religion and politics has further ignited the electoral arena. A study ‘Share of religious minorities: A cross-country analysis’, by Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has triggered a political slugfest between the BJP and INDIA bloc partners. The study says the share of majority Hindu population declined by 7.81% to 78.06% between 1950 and 2015, while that of the Muslim community surged 43.15% 14.09%, in the corresponding period. Giving statistics of other minority communities as well the study says ‘India's performance suggests there’s a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society…’ However, the BJP has grabbed the opportunity provided by the Council and has voiced serious concern over rise in Muslim population. Said its spokesperson, “If by this pace the population is increasing and Congress is hell bent upon giving reservation to the Muslims on the basis of population, they will cut the share of the SCs, STs and the OBCs if voted to power.” Another BJP leader has gone a step further saying “Hindu population is decreasing; Muslim population is increasing... It shows that in the days to come they want to make India an Islamic State.” 

On the other hand, the Opposition has questioned the sheer timing of the report accusing the saffron party of sowing communal discord during ongoing Lok Sabha elections. Why now, asks a leader of Left parties, adding “The prime minister is already trying to polarise people in the name of Muslims, talking about handing over keys of Ram Mandir to Muslims…” Another leader’s response is “It’s a conspiracy to create hatred and polarise the voters.” Indeed, it is disconcerting, and the Election Commission would do well to take note. More importantly, the media must exercise constraint in its reportage as Population Foundation of India has expressed concern about some recent reports ‘misreporting’ the findings from the study to spread alarm. It advises: “Population growth rates are not linked to religion and the total fertility rate among all religious groups is declining, with the highest decrease observed among Muslims…The study’s focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community.” Both media and political leadership must heed. A stitch in time saves nine.  

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‘Conspiracy’ In J&K

J&K administration does a swift U-turn! On Thursday last, it allowed NC to hold public rallies on May 12 in Sopore police district, Baramulla constituency being contested by its Vice President Omar Abdullah. This, only after he wrote to ECI urging it to uphold ‘electoral process integrity’ by directing SP Sopore to allow campaigning as per schedule and ‘rectify the injustice.’ Earlier, without citing any reason, the SP had asked Baramulla administration to direct parties, already given permission, to ‘reschedule programmes’ from May 9-18. With polling on May 20, NC termed the order as ‘discriminatory’, ‘direct assault on democracy and principles of fair competition’ and aimed at ‘sabotaging party’s campaign’ in comparison to other parties (without naming People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone, perceived to enjoy BJP backing). Likewise, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti had written to EC accusing it of participating in a ‘conspiracy’ to derail her campaign in Anantnag-Rajouri seat after it had deferred poll to May 25, where Apni Party’s Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, believed too to have BJP backing, is pitted against her. Will J&K administration uphold values of democracy, is the big question.

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 False Narrative In WB?

West Bengal’s Sandeshkhali case not only gets curiouser but turns spurious. Ruling TMC has urged ECI to start criminal proceedings against BJP leaders concerned for ‘orchestrating conspiracy including paying bribes’ to Sandeshkhali women to ‘falsely raise complaints’ and attempts ‘to influence investigating agencies and constitutional authorities.’ This, after it shared a ‘sting operation’ video on social media showing a local BJP leader claiming rape charges were ‘staged’ at behest of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, who has rubbished the claim. TMC asserted victims may have had a few complaints over land grab, but never of sexual offence and shared fresh videos of women alleging they were ‘manipulated’ by BJP into filing ‘false rape cases.’ TMC-BJP fight has spilled over to Raj Bhavan. A contractual woman employee has levelled molestation charge with Kolkata police station against Governor Ananda Bose, who has said its ‘absurd drama’, ‘dirty’ politics of Mamata Banerjee and launched programme ‘Sach ke Samne’ showing related CCTV footage to 100 people, except ‘Mamata and her police’.

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BSP’s Surprise Move

Amid elections, BSP makes intriguing headlines. On Tuesday last, party supremo Mayawati divested nephew Akash Anand of his post as national co-ordinator and her ‘successor’, barely five months after she had anointed him! In a post on X, she said the decision was taken in ‘interest of party and movement and till the time Anand gains full maturity’. Till then her brother and Akash’s father Anand Kumar is to continue to fulfil his responsibilities as before. Three days later, Anand took to X saying ‘Totally respect your order. I will keep fighting till my last breath for Bhim Mission and my society.’ The surprise decision has led to a guessing game. Is it because Akash was booked in a suo motu case of violating MCC with 4 others for allegedly using ‘objectionable language’ at a rally in Sitapur, saying ‘This government is a bulldozer government and a government of traitors. The party that leaves its youth hungry and enslaves its elderly is a terrorist government. Taliban runs such a government in Afghanistan.’ Or is Mayawati enduring to play safe in Yogi land and be seen as coming to BJP’s rescue?

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Haryana Govt In Crisis?

The future of BJP government in Haryana hangs in balance. Jannayak Janta Party leader Dushyant Chautala has written to Haryana Governor seeking an immediate floor test saying Nayab Singh Saini’s government no longer commands a majority. This is prompted by 3 Independent MLAs withdrawing their support (and backing the Congress) on Tuesday last, reducing it to a minority in the 90-member Assembly. The Congress has demanded that Saini resign immediately, President’s Rule be imposed, and fresh elections be held. However, Saini insists his government is not in trouble and had ‘won a confidence vote in March and if it comes to seeking the trust vote, I will do it again when the time comes.’ The Assembly has an effective strength of 88, BJP has 40 MLAs, Congress 30 and JJP 10, INLD and HLP one each and five Independents. Scales have turned with the 3 independents backing Congress and JJP sending signals it could support the grand old party. With halfway mark being 45, and NDA currently having 43 MLAs, will the government be able to ride with the tide? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 10 May 2024

India’s Global Rise

AND REGIONAL DECLINE

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The Government of Maldives, the archipelago country, has urged India to encourage tourists to visit their country. Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has urged Indian Prime Minister Modi that his country’s economy depends on tourism and therefore India should continue be a part of Maldivian tourism sector. Likewise, Maldivian Tourism Minister Ibrahim Faisal in an interview on 6 May has highlighted the historical relations between the two countries and has invited the Indian nationals to visit his country to vitalise its faltering economy. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Mossa Zameer was to arrive in New Delhi on 9 May on an official visit. While discussing issues of mutual interest, he would be raising the risk of Indian tourists dwindling in Maldives. 

Maldivian concern about depletion of Indian tourists is being expressed against the backdrop of increased geo-political tensions between the two countries. It started with election of ‘pro-China’ President Muizzu who asked for Indian army personnel to be relocated away from Maldives. The dilution of India-Maldives bilateral relations is indicative of India’s decline as a regional power, while India is growing globally. This simultaneous as well as contrarian development in India’s foreign policy presents a paradox. 

India’s global rise is explained by its growth in absolute power, strategic positioning, economic growth in GDP terms, military strength and its largest demography, particularly the youth population. India’s membership of strategic groupings like Quad, G-20, even BRICS and SCO plus the invitation to G-7 marks its global growth. At the same time, India seems to be struggling to retain its influence in the neighbourhood in the face of an aggressive and expansive China. Because of the obvious asymmetry in strength between two countries India is experiencing a decline of relative power, in regard to China. 

Paradoxically, the factors that cause the decline of India’s regional influence are the ones that contribute to its growth as global power. I am referring to the withdrawal of America and Western countries from South Asia and shifting their focus to India-Pacific region. This has left the space open to Chinese penetration into the region. In the face of competition from China, as said before, due to lesser economic strength, New Delhi is unable to maintain its hegemony in the neighbourhood. One Nepalese ambassador to India admitted frankly in a seminar that China has quite a bit of surplus money which countries in South Asia are seeking to tap into. 

Withdrawal of the West from South Asia also has made India the focus of attention as a counterweight to China. Although New Delhi is cautiously moving between America and its allies and China-Russia axis, the West would like India to be a strategic ally. Unsure of America’s unwavering commitment to India vis-à-vis China, New Delhi has not cast the die. But surely, the West courting India is propelling the latter’s global rise. The question is, if India sticks to its strategic autonomy, how will it balance the mismatch between its regional and global influences? 

Let us probe India’s fraying relations with the tiny archipelago, Maldives. Quite a few observers suggest that the rupture in the relations is not because of Muizzu’s tilt towards China, it is largely how New Delhi is reacting to this. Before Muizzu, other leaders followed an India First Policy but Muizzu changed it to Maldives First. As said before, countries in South Asia would like to exploit to their advantage the growing rivalry in the region between India and China. When President Muizzu asked India to withdraw her forces, Govt of India reacted strongly. Muizzu also decided not to renew the agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of its waters. Recall that this agreement signed in 2019 allowed India to conduct a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian territorial waters, study and chart reefs, lagoons, coastlines, Ocean current and tide levels. 

However, the tweet by Prime Minister Modi extolling the tourist potential of Lakshadweep vis-à-vis Maldives dramatically changed the people-to-people perceptions. This hit Maldives below the belt. What was worse were the unworthy personal comments made by two of Muizzu’s ministers on Prime Minister Modi. The social media reacted to it very strongly to the point of boycotting Maldives. It was perhaps an overreaction as those ministers were promptly removed from the Cabinet. Not only that, Muizzu has been losing to his opponents after his apparent anti-India posturing. In fact, there have been protests by the Opposition in Maldives that warm relations with India should be restored forthwith. 

Maldives is the smallest country in South Asia and India is the largest. The relations between two countries signify the conduct of Maldives on how to deal with the biggest country in the neighbourhood. But the onus lies more on India as New Delhi should be wary of giving an inferiority complex to Maldives. Despite the difference in size, both countries need each other in their mutual interest. 

Maldives works as a ‘toll gate’ for nearly half of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports. Maldives is situated along the crucial maritime trade routes between the Gulf of Aiden and the Strait of Malacca. Maldives is also strategically located in the Indian Ocean and is therefore, of great interest to India. Maldives can counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean on behalf of India. 

Likewise, Maldives needs India for various critical reasons. India is the main supplier of essential commodities, provides a base for education of number of Maldivians. India is the second largest trade partner of Maldives. For Maldives, India has been the main responder; be it the coup attempt in 1988 which made the Indian forces intervene under the code ‘Operation Cactus’, or the Tsunami disaster in 2004. India was the first country to send relief assistance. In 2014, Male had drinking water crisis as a major desalination plant broke down, India overnight air lifted drinking water to the Islands. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent essential medical supplies. 

In comparison to China, India has greater soft power which New Delhi must deploy. This should be done not as a bully or a big brother in the region but as an unoffending friendly country despite huge difference in size and strength. One way New Delhi could use its soft power is to encourage informal contacts between political and civil society actors in India and other South Asian countries. Second, India could encourage non-state actors to engage in conflict management mechanisms in the region as New Delhi is reluctant to get involved at an official level – Myanmar is a case in point. 

The track-II diplomacy consisting of cultural exchange, education collaboration and business promotion is the best way forward. The myth that foreign policy objectives can be met by the Ministry of External Affairs alone has to be busted. In so doing, India can resolve the contradiction between her global rise and local decline.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)