Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 7 April 2025

Multilateral WTO Trumped

INDIA TILTS TO CHINA, RUSSIA, EU

By Shivaji Sarkar 

One man has rewritten world trade rules. Reciprocity is the name of the game. Difficult to find fault with his arguments. What you are doing to America, President Donald Trump has now decided to do to you. Cold war having gone, scope for others to play off one superpower against the other is not available. Challenging times ahead for world leaders and diplomats. The World Trade Organisaton (WTO) better self deport itself from the scene! In a world in turmoil unilateralism replaces multilateralism? 

India certainly is in a quagmire as all WTO principles and protection walls are being felled with 26 per cent tariff, 50 per cent of 52 per cent allegedly being charged by it. The reciprocal tariff is in addition to the existing one. The automobiles or parts have 25 per cent tariff and another 26 per cent are to be levied. It could hit the country’s major export pillar, the IT services. 

But that is not the peak of absurdity. In his absurd passion with world tariffs fuelled by zeal for bulldozing world order, Trump has imposed 10 per cent tariff on an uninhabited volcanic Heard and McDonald islands, one of the remotest places on earth, home to Penguins, near Antarctica, an external territory of Australia, reached by a two-week boat ride from Perth. The last visit to this man-forsaken place from people believed to be nearly 10 years ago. But data show that the US had imports of $15,000 to $325,000 machineries a year during the past five years! 

Such tariff-hit territories include Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island and Norfolk Island. Norfolk, a 2000-inhabited island gets 29 per cent tariff for its tiny footwear exports of $ 655,000 to the US. The islands are part of Australia leading Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react, on April 3, a day after Trumpelling moves roiling the world, “Nowhere on earth is safe”. 

India thus is not in an unviable position. At best it can wonder whether it would still remain fascinated with the New World as the order collapses. Would it look for new trade avenues? It is trying but has not yet found a lucrative market, even as the US sinks it remains “superpower”. It knows that the US system itself has gone beyond sane moves forcing India to extend a number of concessions even in pro-Trump, or better say Joe Biden days, on agriculture and other products. More it yields, more it is being subjected to shed. 

India needs a charter for negotiating world chaos. It was once in the forefront of establishing multilateralism since its glorious Non-Aligned Movement. It has lost the edge during the 30 years of globalisation, getting closer to the US may be fascinated by its economic power, and now as Trump announces April 2 as Liberation Day, it is looking for new avenues. 

The new tariffs include a universal 10 per cent duty on all imports into the US starting from April 5, with an additional 16 per cent to be applied from April 10. The reciprocal tariff imposed is a big blow to India's exports, affecting multiple industries. Key sectors could be hit. Ranging from small to big, company revenues are likely to fall. India has a trade surplus of $46 billion. Hit by the big brother, it may slash import duties worth $23 billion on US goods, including gems, jewellery, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts. Would that soften the blow? 

India’s top exports to the US are engineering goods $17.6 billion (bn) in 2023-24, and $18.6 bn in 2022-23; electronic goods 10.1 bn and $5.7 bn; gems and jewellery $9.9 bn and $12.5 bn; pharmaceuticals $8.7 bn and 7.5 bn; textiles $9.2 bn and $9.7 bn; and petroleum products $10.10 bn and $5.8 bn. The imports are $5.2 bn petroleum oil in 2023-24 and $10 bn in 2022-23; petroleum gases $1.2 bn and $1.9 bn; petroleum coke $1.54 bn and $1.9 bn; aircraft $2.09 bn and $2.11 bn and nuts $1.02 bn and $1.11 bn. 

The new tariffs are likely to have short-term and long-term implications for overall economy, trade relations, currency markets, investments in businesses and stock markets. There is a view that compared to other countries like China 54 per cent tariff, Vietnam 46 per cent, Thailand 36 per cent, Taiwan and Indonesia 32 per cent each, impact less on India. The reality may be harsher and the industry would have to make wider adjustments, do cost cutting and reduce prices of products. 

The tariffs are likely to hit autos, pharmaceuticals and IT. Additional duties may hit hard automobiles and auto parts, cars and light trucks. Tata Motors—the parent company of Jaguar Land Rover, which exports to the US—saw its shares fall 5 per cent following the tariff announcement, while Sona Comstar, an Indian global automotive systems manufacturer, declined 4 per cent. 

The pharmaceutical sector may also come under pressure. Although specific tariff rates are yet to be detailed, the US remains a key market for Indian drug exports, and any hike in duties could impact revenue. However, pharma products have reportedly been exempted from the latest round of US reciprocal tariffs. 

Sectors such as steel and agriculture are likely to be hit, with the impact first reflected in the stock market. Indian equities may come under pressure, particularly export-driven sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT, amid fears of retaliation. It could disrupt global supply chains. 

Rising trade tensions may weigh on the rupee and dampen FDI, though domestic stimulus could cushion some of the blow. Japan’s auto sector may face export hurdles, pressuring the Nikkei. Globally, a risk-off sentiment could boost the US dollar and Treasuries. Investors should closely track retaliatory moves and sector-specific vulnerabilities. 

India’s diplomacy will be changing on the pattern summed up best by Minister for External Affairs, who in 2022 said, “This is a time for us to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play, draw neighbours in, extend the neighbourhood and expand traditional constituencies of support.” China may emerge as a friend and the US may not be a foe in the new order as trade diversifies.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Spotlight

New Delhi, 5 April 2025

What’s Next For Pax Americana?

By Ewa Fronczak

(Centre For Internaltional Relations, Poland) 

The 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, once said that America was ready to “pay any price, bear any burden, face any adversity, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and success of freedom.” The 47th President Donald Trump, seems to have a rather different view of America’s role in the world – it is not the defence of freedom or the spread of democracy that drives the current administration’s international policy, but the American national interest and the maximization of economic profits. 

The term “Pax Americana” (American Peace) refers to the international order that the US built after World War II and the decades of relative peace and prosperity that followed under American economic and military leadership in the free world. The postwar years and the beginning of the Cold War whetted the appetite for expansionist internationalism. Both Democrats and Republicans coalesced around a grand strategy that ensured geopolitical stability and prosperity by projecting American power globally. In the following decades, the  US policy was guided by the maxim that free economic exchange creates prosperity worldwide and thereby strengthens democratic governance. 

The 1930s saw the successful integration of the world economy under US leadership, based on new international institutions: the Bretton Woods Monetary Agreement of 1944 and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) of 1947. US economic liberalism sought to combine economic stability with welfare state measures. This changed with the rise of neoliberalism from 1970s, when emphasis was not only on removing barriers to trade and capital flows but also on privatisation, deregulation, and withdrawal of the state from the economy. With the rise of social inequality in many countries and the global financial crises (widely attributed to neoliberalism), the economic pillar of the Pax Americana began to be delegitimised. 

However, the real paradigm shift in US economic policy was triggered by the rapid economic rise of another superpower, China, leading to a shift in the configuration of power in the world and growing geopolitical tensions. The system built by the US, based on combining American economic power with free trade and largely unrestricted flow of technology and capital, began to favour the development of the Asian Tigers and China more than America, which, captivated by the over 1.5 billion Chinese market, simply overslept and let itself be caught up in the economic and technological race. 

And then Trump enters the scene, turning the table over in 2018; he turns 40 years of strategic cooperation into strategic rivalry and starts a trade war with the Middle Kingdom. The old paradigm and the previous model of globalisation have been replaced by a geoeconomic and transactional approach to international relations. The decisive question is no longer whether the exchange of goods, services and capital benefits all parties, but who benefits the most or, in other words, for whom the exchange means greater dependence. 

Trump sees the economy as a potential weapon. As a result, trade restrictions and the use of coercive economic instruments such as sanctions and export controls have become even more important from Washington’s perspective. Of course, it’s not only since Trump’s first term (2017–2021) that the US has been using these instruments, but what is new is the extent to which America is threatening and imposing protectionist measures and sanctions not only on geopolitical and international rivals that violate norms, but also on partners and allies such as Mexico, Canada and the European Union. 

Analysing the actions and words of US President and his associates so far, it’s clear the American-led global order is becoming a thing of the past, and Trump’s version of Pax Americana is very different from the one we know - it is directed inwards, limits involvement in distant theaters of war, focuses on building its own economy and subordinates foreign policy to its own national interest. Moreover, it is very likely that the transition from economic openness to geoeconomics will prove permanent and will no longer depend on changes in the White House. 

The reasons for this decisive change of course have been clearly communicated to us - at some point the post-war order became disadvantageous to the US, because it burdened it with the responsibility of monitoring the globe and allowed European allies to “free-ride”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his Senate hearing left the world in no doubt when he said that the ‘unipolar world’ was simply a historical anomaly that was coming to an end. As the balance of power on the globe has changed, the US is also changing its modus operandi – from now on, hard power counts, and only strong countries have the final say. 

Analysing the actions and words of the new White House administration, one can cite at least several pieces of evidence for a change in the American approach to the issue of supremacy and exercising the role of hegemon. 

We are witnessing serious fractures in the relationship between the US and its closest trade and defence partners, including the EU. This divide is no longer limited to defence spending or trade issues; it extends far beyond disagreements over values ​​and institutions. As J.D. Vance’s fiery rhetoric in Munich made clear, Trump and his surrogates believe that European culture has gone astray, degraded by its tolerance of illegal immigration, its abandonment of Christian traditions, and its pursuit of doing good for the world rather than focusing on family and country. 

A key pillar of transatlantic solidarity—NATO—has also become America’s target. For Trump, European allies that fail to live up to their defence obligations are national security freeloaders, abusing the trade privileges granted to them by the US. Before his re-election, the president threatened to let Russia “do whatever it wants” to NATO members that fail to meet certain defence spending targets. But the hostility goes beyond defence spending. 

Another example of America’s retreat from places that are not currently on its priority list is Trump’s response to events in Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime: “Syria is a mess… The US should have nothing to do with this. This is not our fight. Let it play out.” The assertive behaviour of China and the so-called Global South is yet another indication that the US is not only retreating from its position of primacy but is no longer treated as a global hegemon. 

The current administration's attitude toward its closest neighbours, in turn, indicates that Trump is using intimidation and ignorance of international law in order to rebuild the network of alliances in such a way that they better serve American interests - even at the cost of alliance credibility, which has ceased to be a profitable bargaining chip. The cases with Canada, Panama, and Greenland clearly show the type of policy Trump is focusing on - playing for himself, transactionality, deals.  It’s therefore not surprising that Trump is ready to negotiate with Kim Jong-un, or to call Putin a “super guy”; and he will manage to conclude some kind of agreement and ease the growing geopolitical tensions, while limiting the country's burdensome obligations abroad. 

For the US, being a global hegemon has always meant active participation in international organizations, investing in soft power, and supporting global efforts to build democracy. Trump, on the other hand, has withdrawn the country from many important initiatives, suspended USAID, and replaced soft power with “peace through strength.” He uses economic power as leverage to extract concessions from other countries. Much like Putin used Russian oil and gas to intimidate Europe, Trump imposes drastic tariffs and forces domestic and foreign corporations to move production to the US; in other words, he practices classic power politics and spheres of interest based on an order in which economic intimidation replaces free trade and international cooperation as the currency of power. 

Tracing the strategic narrative and response of the European Union’s two largest powers, France and Germany, to actions from overseas, one can see the beginning of a process of preparing for the post-Pax Americana era. 

Since taking office in 2017, French President Macron has sought to Europeanize France’s understanding of European sovereignty. From his 2017 Sorbonne speech to his 2020 Military School speech and his 2024 Sorbonne speech, Macron has consistently called for Europeans to exercise greater strategic autonomy, less dependence on the US, and greater investment in their own defense industries. 

The post-war global supremacy of the US meant that the Americans did not agree to other powers having exclusive spheres of influence; it was treated as too great a threat to American hegemony. And so, in the case of both Ukraine and Taiwan, it was associated with years of investment in defending the sovereignty of these regions. However, current decisions and strategic narrative from Washington indicate, at the very least, a change in approach regarding Russian and Chinese spheres of influence. 

If one follows the statements of leading government officials and even the US President himself, one may get the impression that American determination to defend Taiwan's sovereignty is neither certain nor unconditional. Trump spoke signaling that Taiwan should bear a larger share of its own defense costs and questioning the wisdom of providing further military aid without financial compensation. 

In turn, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, saying that the United States should no longer be responsible for fully subsidizing the defense of its allies abroad, referred not only to the issue of Taiwan but also Ukraine. The manner of conducting peaceful negotiations with Russia and the matter of signing an agreement with Ukraine clearly demonstrate the strategic recalibration of the American defense policy towards NATO's eastern flank. Trump's talks with Putin to date and his reluctance to provide Ukrainians with security guarantees quite clearly indicate the Americans' readiness to surrender this part of Europe to the Russian zone of influence. For Trump, what matters most is the "deal" and the future economic profits awaiting Ukraine, not whether Zelensky will be replaced as president by some pro-Russian apparatchik. 

Trump and the ruling team, frustrated by the costs of global leadership, seem not to notice the numerous benefits resulting from this fact. There is no doubt that American hegemony is expensive to maintain, but at the same time it has enabled the construction of a world favorable to American interests, which has brought a generous dividend to American pockets for decades.  

Trump’s “Make America great again” (MAGA) challenges the existing system of hegemonic stability, in which a leading state accepts certain sacrifices (such as a trade deficit) in order to secure global public goods such as free trade and security. What was at the heart of the liberal international order under US leadership, according to Trump, has led to his country being exploited by enriching, free-riding Europeans. Most importantly, it has allowed developing countries at the bottom of the global value chain to rise to unexpectedly high positions, which will harm the development plans of the US in the long run. 

Thus, the American goal, as Vice President Vance has openly admitted, is to maintain a strict international division of labor, in which poor countries on the periphery produce low-value-added goods (with high competition and therefore low profits), while rich countries in the core reap exorbitant monopoly rents from control over high-value-added technologies (with little or no competition, reinforced by strict intellectual property rights). There is no denying that with this approach to the matter, the US is setting itself on a collision course both with its greatest strategic rival, China, but also with much of the globe, the so-called Global South, determined and rushing along its development path. How this Thucydides Trap ends, the next decade will show.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 5 April 2025

Chile’s President in India

 Modi’s Outreach to LA

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. NIIS Group of Institutions, Odisha) 

The practice in the media and political circles is creating a buzz and excitement when leaders of big powers visit India. Leaders from United States, Japan, European Union, China and Russia draw a good deal of public attention. The proposed visit of Russian President Putin is already featuring in several media. Prime Minister Modi seems to be departing from that trend and is inviting leaders of countries having small and medium power. Last year when he met the new President of Chile Gabriel Boric Font on the sidelines of G-20 meeting in Brazil, he invited the latter to visit India. In response, Chilean President made his first official visit to India from 1 to 5 April. 

The visit of Gabriel Font is significant on more than one account. He is a new generation politician in Chile who moved from student politics to the highest office of President of the country. He promised to break the mould in Chilean politics. In her banquet welcome, Hon’ble President of India underlined this aspect. Second, Gabriel Font’s visit corresponds well to Modi’s scheme of consolidating the Global South. Prime Minister Modi singled out Chile in his appreciation for its participation in all the three editions of the Voice of Global South summits. Third, Chile was the only Latin American country which sent an envoy to the celebration of Independence of India in 1947. Fourth, Chile was one of the first Latin American countries to sign a trade agreement with India in 1956. 

Unarguably, it is in the national interest of India, and the strategic ambition of becoming the Voice of the Global South, India’s foreign policy should continue to engage with all the countries of Global South, big or small. President of Chile acknowledged this special trait of Modi while endorsing his new image effusively, “Prime Minister Modi is now a key player in the current geo-political environment. He is the only leader in the world today, who can speak to Donald Trump of USA, the Presidents of both- Ukraine and Russia – Zelenskyy and Putin respectively – European Union, Latin American leaders, and Iran and Greece”.  Irrespective of the diplomatic nicety, this is a strong statement in favour of Modi’s geo-political acumen. 

India-Chile diplomatic relations go back to 76 years beginning in 1949. There has been a fair convergence of positions in international relations between both countries. They have had moderate bilateral relations ever since 1949. The major component has been trade. A framework agreement for bilateral trade was initiated in 2005. It was meant to promote widespread economic cooperation between both countries which was envisaged as a prelude to a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). A year later, PTA was signed between both countries in March 2006, which became operational in September 2007. 

Under the PTA, a Joint Administrative Committee (JAC) was constituted continually to review the functioning of PTA, and to recommend its expansion. In 2016, both countries signed a new India-Chile Preferential Trade Agreement marking a ten-fold jump in the number of products to be traded on concessional rates. India’s bilateral trade with Chile stood at 2.6b USD in that year. Now, both President Font and Prime Minister Modi agreed to initiate discussion on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.   

During this visit, the whole gamut of bilateral relations was reviewed and many new initiatives were taken. The Chilean President was accompanied with a big delegation from diverse sectors to cover the entirety of bilateral relations. The delegation included ministers, academics, administrators, entrepreneurs, cultural actors, defence personnel et al. In fact, Prime Minister Modi had a special mention on the size and diversity of the delegation. 

One important development which concerns many Indians is about the visa. Chilean President announced multiple entry visas to Indian business persons. The Indian Diaspora is quite small in Chile compared to other countries; it has just over thousand members. India had already extended the e-visa facility to Chile. Like in any bilateral relations, people-to-people contact was given priority. Exchange of students, faculty and cultural programmes was also discussed. Notably, an ICCR (Indian Council for Cultural Relations), chair on Indian Studies has been decided to set up in any of the Chilean universities. 

Trading on minerals from both countries figured in a big way. This was necessary to boost the industries in both countries. A MoU on traditional medicines was signed between both countries. India has rich tradition and practice of traditional medicines along with Yoga and natural wellness. Chile invited Indian attention to building infrastructure like railways, and support in defence preparedness. India reciprocated by offering to train Chile’s defence personnel in its premier institutes like NDC, NDA and HDMC. 

Terrorism was another topic which was seriously discussed. New Delhi has been flagging off international terrorism in bilateral as well as multilateral forums. Both leaderships discussed the functioning of FATF (Financial Action Task Force) and NMFT (No Money for Terrorism). Both leaders agreed to work for a comprehensive cooperation in international terrorism.  Cross-border terrorism has been a menace for any country in the world. 

President Gabriel Font appreciated India’s initiative in setting up the International Solar Alliance (ISA). India took the leadership along with France to set up this renewable energy association. India was the first country to become the international convener of ISA. Prime Minister Modi appreciated Chile joining ISA since November 2023. He also thanked President Font for agreeing to host the       7^th ISA Regional Committee meeting for Latin American and Caribbean countries. At the same time, Prime Minister Modi thanked Chile for joining the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) since January 2021. This is critically important coalition given the recurrence of natural disasters. The latest is the horrible earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand. 

New Delhi offered to help Chile in building its digital public infrastructure. India is leading in building digital platforms. Even at a small tea stall or fruit vendor, one can pay digitally. This has been appreciated across the world. Chile will do well to invite Indian technology and the know-how to enhance the digital sector. The other area of interest is the pharma industry. The President invited Indian pharma manufacturers to trade in his country. 

At the time of writing, HE Gabriel Font was to visit Agra, Mumbai and Bangaluru in order to meet companies, local politicians and others interested in doing business with Chile. The main contours of upgrading the bilateral relations were discussed in Delhi with Prime Minister and his cabinet colleagues. The state visits to Maharashtra and Karnataka are supposed to supplement the initiatives taken at Delhi. 

All in all, it should be a good visit by the President of Chile which would lead to deepening of relations. Focussing on spreading Spanish language would perhaps accelerate the people-to-people contact which is the key to good bilateralism. Good luck President of Chile.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 31 March 2025

Ganga Valley Sees Oil Boom

 GAME CHANGER IN ENERGY SECTOR?

By Shivaji Sarkar 

India, heavily reliant on imports for 87 percent of its oil needs, is now eyeing a potential energy revolution in its underexplored eastern basins. South Bengal, Bihar, and Eastern Uttar Pradesh are emerging as key oil hotspots, with untapped reserves that could reshape the region’s economy. The Oil and natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)’s exploration in Ballia and Samastipur spans 308 sq km, holding the promise of transforming some of India's most impoverished areas. 

The new oil and gas exploration in Bihar’sSamastipur and UP’s Ballia holds the potential to reshape India’s energy landscape. However, challenges in land acquisition remain, necessitating strong local support for seamless drilling operations. A commercial discovery here could unlock the entire Ganga Basin, spanning Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, for further oil exploration. 

Initial investments in the two explorations are likely to be about Rs 125 crore – Rs 85 crore for Ballia and Rs 35 crore for Samastipur.Explorations are on in Punjab-Haryana Ganga basin too. The study is being conducted in - Machhiwara, Samrala, Ludhiana East tehsils, Nawanshahr, Jalandhar, Gurdaspur, and Amritsar. 

The discovery at Ashoknagar, yielding high-quality crude superior to Bombay High, has positioned the Bengal Basin as India’s eighth commercially producing hydrocarbon zone. Meanwhile, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands hold vast untapped natural gas reserves, estimated at 610 million tonnes. With just 10 percent of India’s sedimentary basins currently under exploration, the country plans to expand this to 16 percent within a year—paving the way for a new era in domestic oil and gas production. 

The monetisation of the Ashoknagar-1 discovery has made the Bengal Basin India’s eighth commercially producing hydrocarbon zone, leading to its upgrade to a Category-I productive basin.With this, ONGC has discovered seven out of eight producing basins of the country.The seven basins discovered and put into production by ONGC are: Krishna-Godavari, Mumbai Offshore, Assam Shelf, Rajasthan, Cauvery, Assam-Arakan Fold Belt, and Cambay. 

India is on track to increase its exploration acreage to 1million square km by 2030, oil and gas yields are expected to increase significantly. The approval process for exploration and production activities in the petroleum industry has now been simplified, reducing 37 approval processes to just 18, of which nine are now available for self-certification. 

The new Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill in 2024,passedby the Rajya Sabha in December 2024, ensures policy stability for oil and gas producers, and enables single licence for all hydrocarbons. This opens up entry of private companies.The ONGC has signed a MoU with BP to explore collaboration in oil and gas projects in India and abroad. The partnership will focus on enhancing production, trading, and exploring new energy vectors. This collaboration aims to boost ONGC’s output, optimise management of fields, and create value in additional energy vectors such as carbon sequestration. 

India has witnessed a remarkable surge in petroleum product exports over the last decade. The country’s refining capacity, now exceeding 250 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA), has enabled it to cater to global markets. 

Key export destinations include South Asian, African, and European countries. The emphasis on export-oriented growth and establishing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for refineries have further boosted this trend. Exports not only contribute to foreign exchange reserves but also enhance India’s stature as a global energy supplier. 

As of April 2021, India’s crude oil reserves were estimated at approximately 587.335 million metric tonnes, with the western offshore region holding the largest share, followed by Assam and Gujarat. The Bihar and UP discoveries add to the hope of the country’s hydrocarbon exploration efforts, promising long-term gains in energy production and economic growth. 

Through intense seismic surveys since 2016-17, the ONGC made 68 new discoveries and monetised 36. Key discoveries in Kutch, Saurashtra, West Bengal, and the KG Basin reinforced confidence in upgrading these basins to Category-I (Producing). 

It has identified 26 sedimentary basins, categorized into four groups by the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) based on their hydrocarbon prospectivity. To harness the country’s untapped oil and gas potential, ONGC is actively exploring reserves across 13 of these basins under the Nomination and New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) regimes. 

These basins include the Assam Shelf, Assam-Arakan Fold Belt, Cambay (including offshore), Cauvery (including offshore), Krishna-Godavari (including offshore), Mumbai Offshore, Rajasthan (Jaisalmer), Kutch Offshore, Mahanadi Offshore, Saurashtra Offshore, Himalayan Foreland, Bengal, and Vindhyan basins spread across Assam, Mizoram, Tripura, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh. The basins extend along eastern and western coasts, strengthening domestic energy security. 

The exploration successes have strengthened India’s domestic hydrocarbon reserves. India is set to become a key driver of global oil demand by 2030, fuelled by economic growth, urbanization, and rising vehicle ownership. With the new finds India’s capacity in refinery is to reach 295 million tonne. Oil imports may rise to 5.6 million barrels. But for the new oil basins, output is to drop to 540,000 barrels a day. 

By 2035, domestic oil production is likely to rise but so are imports by an aspiring nation with larger activities. Though battery vehicle is being junked by US President Donald Trump, India continues with it. It too has heavy import liabilities in battery and other components. 

The ONGC produces 1.26 million barrels a day, 76 percent of this of high quality. India’s import dependence is rising, with the oil ministry telling the standing committee that the share of import in the volume of crude processed will increase to 91 per cent. Despite efforts to enhance energy efficiency, India’s growing energy needs will necessitate a balanced approach between exploration, imports, and refinery expansion. 

India’s energy demand is set to rise to 11 percent of global demand by 2040, positioning the country as a key player in the global oil and gas sector.Its crude oil imports rose to 179.3 million tonnes in April-December, from 173.7 million tonnes in the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, domestic oil production declined slightly to 21.6 million tonnes from 22 million tonnes, according to the latest data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC).Once the Gangetic Valley finds go for commercial production, the PPAC projection may have to be revised. India hopes to maintain balance in import and exports of petroleum products.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)