People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 7 April 2007  

Energy Independence

EXPLORING GROWTH OPTIONS

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Energy growth and independence is a key factor in India’s fast pace of development, which obviously needs to be sustained in the coming years. The energy independence has got to be achieved through three different sources---hydel, nuclear and non-conventional, primarily through solar and wind energy. The power generating capacity, according to projections, has to increase to 400,000 MW by 2030 from the existing 130,000 MW. There has been much debate and discussion on which of the sources emphases should be laid.

While it is a well known fact that there has been a cry the world over to reduce dependence on non-renewable sources, the same point was echoed by President, APJ Kalam, at a convocation address recently. Not only did he emphasize the need to increase power generated through non-renewable sources from the present five per cent to 25 per cent by 2030.

Dr. Kalam also called for massive encouragement for increasing production of bio-diesel and ethanol. “We are at present importing around 100 million tonnes of crude oil with a foreign exchange outflow of Rs 150,000 crore per annum. By 2030, with the present growth rate, we may have to import 300 million tonnes”, he said and exhorted scientists to work on developing other energy solutions.

There have been examples abroad of successful blending of bio-diesel with petrol and diesel and the President said the target for such blending should be around 30 per cent. For this, production of 60 million tonnes of bio-diesel and 60 million tonnes of ethanol has to be achieved by 2030, according to him.

On nuclear power, Dr. Kalam observed that there was need to plan right now to increase the capacity by 50,000 MW by 2030 when hydel capacity was expected to contribute 80,000 MW. At present, the nuclear power capacity of 16 reactors is 3900 MW and this may go up to 7400 MW by 2010 with the completion of the nine reactors, now in progress. It may be mentioned here that as per projections of BARC and Nuclear Power Corporation, the capacity is expected to be increased to 24,000 MW by 2020.          

The roadmap for the country’s energy needs definitely require to be examined carefully, keeping in view the fact that the manufacturing sector has been increasing rapidly, on the one hand, while electrification of the rural sector is being carried out, on the other. The dependence on the thermal sector has to gradually reduce steadily not just because of problems of availability of coal but also because of greenhouse warming and increased pollution. The recent emphasis should obviously be on hydel power supported by non-renewable sources, especially solar and wind power.   

Meanwhile, though power is the biggest single factor responsible for rapid industrialization of the country, the Tenth Plan target of adding 34,000 MW is unlikely to be fulfilled as till the end of 2006 only around 18,000-19,000 MW new generation had been added. During the Eleventh Plan, the capacity addition target has been quite ambitious of around 68,000 MW, which would require an investment of around $ 100 billion. But though there is much talk of concentrating on non-conventional sources, this would contribute around 10,000 MW while the share of hydel projects would be 18,000 MW. However, even this is much better than that of the earlier Plans where the share of non-conventional sources was quite meagre.       

An important development in the power sector is the use of sophisticated technology called super-critical technology. This technology enables higher efficiency in power generation leading to lower coal usage and hence lower emissions. The technology is based on super-critical property of water. At a pressure beyond 225 bar unit of (pressure) in a boiler, water transforms into steam simultaneously. Another significant aspect is that this technology is applicable in plants of 660 MW and above.

Most plants based on this technology are located in Japan and Europe. In India, it is beginning to be accepted now with two projects being developed by the NTPC. The obvious reason for the acceptance of this technology is its high efficiency of around 45 per cent compared to only 32 per cent of Indian plants.

The higher efficiency is achieved by complex thermodynamic phenomenon, whereby if energy input to the boiler-turbine system is kept constant, operating the system at higher pressures and temperatures can increase power produced. It may be pertinent here to point out that The Economist has predicted that solar electricity would be competitive with coal-based power in three to eight years.

New innovations in the realm of solar and wind power have also been evident. Wind power is fast emerging as a credible alternative at competitive prices. Increased usage of wind power needs to be actively pursued keeping an eye on costs and making it more acceptable. One may mention here Pune-based Suzlon Energy and MSPL Ltd., both of which are running quite successfully while many others are expected to set up plants.

Wind turbine manufacturers estimate that they would remain competitive in the international market as long as the price of crude oil remains above $ 40 per barrel. Experts feel a little support from the government by way of reduction of import duty tax would go a long way in boosting up windmills along the countryside. 

As regards solar power, it is well known that the upfront costs are simply too steep. To overcome this, a solar developer in California called ‘Developing Energy Efficient Roof Systems’ has introduced a business model in which it buys the equipment from private finances. Though such business model is unsuitable for India primarily because of high electricity rates in the United States, there is need to examine effective utilization of solar energy at competitive costs.

There is much talk of the effectiveness of nuclear energy as it has played a significant role in power generation in the developed countries of the world. Though nuclear power is clean and does not emit large amount of greenhouse gases, it requires high capital investment and is also fraught with grave safety concerns. However, modern monitoring and control systems along with computer simulation techniques have all added to nuclear power safety strategies and reactor operators have learnt from past mistakes.

It is estimated that the capital cost of a nuclear plant is around Rs 6-6.5 crore /MW against Rs. 4-4.5 for a thermal plant. What really gives the edge to nuclear plants is the significantly lower operating cost, which is less than Re 0.5 per unit against Re 1 for coal-based plants. For gas-based plants , it is higher at Rs 1.5 per unit based on gas price of about $ 4 per mmbtu.

The recent agreement with the USA should help ease the problem of getting natural uranium, a tonne of which can produce more than 40 million units of electricity. This is equivalent to burning 16,000 tonnes of coal, 100-mn m₃ of gas or 80,000 barrels of oil. As per estimates, India’s uranium reserves are limited and can only support 10,000 MW of capacity.

But the Indo-US deal would facilitate large imports and support higher capacity addition up to 500,000 MW of power. The second stage development of Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR), which uses reprocessed fuel generated from first stage reactors, would be an important step in this direction. The first such reactor is under construction. It is expected to be commissioned in 2009-10.

The technological innovations coupled with the stress on non-conventional sources as also on nuclear power, if followed effectively, should help the country achieve its industrialization programme. Apart from this, the electrification of the rural sector could also be achieved during the targeted timeframe.

It needs to be reiterated that adequate emphasis on power generation is a must, more so as indigenous power equipment manufacturers have the capability to lend valuable support to the country’s on-going projects. However R & D in this sector has to be given sufficient attention to increase the plant load factor (PLF) of our plants and ensure economies of scale.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 30 March 2007      

India’s Textile Industry

Effective STEPS For Growth Needed

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

The textile industry is expected to grow into a $110 billion industry by 2010-12 from the present level of $ 52, riding on the back of abundant fibre supply, favourable demography and emphasis on innovation. This envisages an investment upwards of $ 50 billion, observed Nikhil Meswani of Reliance Industries (RIL) at the recent Asian Textile Conference. Sufficient supply of paraxylene and PTA, backed by refining capacity could double or triple man-made fibre production, benefiting textile industry’s growth.

Currently the country’s textile sector adds about 14 per cent to industrial production and about 4 per cent to the GDP. The production by all sectors---mill, powerloom, handloom and khadi, wool and silk---has shown an upward trend in recent years.

Meanwhile, an authoritative report has pointed out that the Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS) for the Indian textile industry should continue with some modifications. It suggested the continuance of the Scheme for the weaving and processing segments but thought that it could be discouraged for the spinning sector. Keeping in view the request of various textile bodies, the Finance Minister, in his Budget speech, rightly decided to continue the TUFS during the Eleventh Plan period with handlooms also being covered. It may be mentioned here that the TUFS was started in 1999 to uplift the declining textile industry and was later extended to March 2007.

If the Scheme was terminated by March, the efforts to provide financial assistance to the textile sector would have been a half-done affair. However, the scheme needs to be modified to achieve the goals in the post-quota global supply chain for textiles. Quotas in the pre-2005 arrangement guaranteed access to the US and the EU markets for small textile companies. However with the removal of quotas, integrated textile players are now preferred in the new global sourcing paradigm.

Underdeveloped weaving and processing, the report said, resulted in somewhat poor quality fabrics. This sometimes forced domestic garment exporters to rely go in for imports. Though a subsidy cut cannot be ruled, even a reduction from say 5 per cent to 3 per cent would be helpful but the subsidy component should be allowed to continue for a few more years to allow Indian companies to modernize and effectively face global competition.

The formulation of the textile policy in 2000 for developing a globally competitive industry through modernization and consolidation signaled a new era for developing a globally competitive textile sector. Subsequently, the Government formulated the Vision 2010 plan for textile industry to increase India’s share in world textile trade from around 3.30 per cent in 2003 to 8 per cent by achieving export turnover of $ 50 billion by 2010. This would also create 12 million additional employment opportunities in the textile sector.  

It is thus imperative at this juncture to take recourse to IT, which is not only essential but indispensable for modernization and becoming competitive. Given that around 85 per cent of the industry consists of small units, the rising trend of textile units going in for IT-related infrastructure is indeed a positive sign. Many owners have felt that increasingly complex production mixes and longer processing sequences are intensifying the need for IT infrastructure. In composite mills (spinning, weaving, garmenting etc.), these are becoming inevitable.     

The IT infrastructure in textile firms is at a nascent stage. Though the ERP is proving helpful for many units, broadband connectivity is equally in high demand. Manufacturing and processing require IT assistance and more and more firms are going for it. Experts believe that information technology can streamline processes by organizing information from manufacturing, sales and finance and enabling data sharing for improved decision making.

There is a sustained effort to make the organized mill industry globally competitive. The following measures have been initiated and need to be carried further: integration of production efforts on technology-driven lines; encouragement in setting up large integrated textile complexes; strategic alliances with international textile majors with focus on new products and retailing strategies; and creation of awareness and supportive measures for application of IT, enhancement of efficiency, productivity and quality, better working environment and HRD.

While technology would play a key role in India’s growth of the textile sector, there is also need for the subsidy component to continues under the TUFS, provide 10 per cent capital subsidy for processing under TUFS and encourage banks to proactively invest in the textile sector. There is also need for accelerating labour reforms and ensuring power availability to meet the desired standards of this sector.  

As a fallout of the quota regime there is an immediate necessity of consolidation of production and distribution in supplying countries, which would necessarily mean improved scales of operation. Indian players would also have to integrate to achieve operating leverage and demonstrate high bargaining power. It is expected that Chinese textile firms have already invested heavily to expand and grab huge market share in the quota-free world.

According to a research report by EXIM Bank, Textiles Exports: Past MFA Scenario, it is estimated that the industry would require Rs 1.5 trillion ($ 35 billion) new capital investment in the next ten years (by 2014) to tap the potential export requirements of $ 70 billion. It is estimated that the USA and the European Union together would offer a market of $ 42 billion fir Indian textiles and garments in the year 2014. 

The opening of the international markets has thrown open unique set of challenges. The competition will not only intensify in the external as also in the domestic markets. Various countries, specially the developed countries may, however, increasingly resort to protectionist measures or regional trade agreements to protect their textile of clothing industry, which has been severely impacted by the imports of low-cost products from China. Despite all-round positive developments, the Indian textile sector faces a number of challenges, foremost being infrastructure and inflexible labour laws, inflow into the country of spurious material, counterfeit, fake and misleading selvedge description continues.

However, recognizing the threat of these spurious imports poses, if continued unchecked, the government has taken a number of steps to check the inflow of such products. Simultaneously, modernization and automation measures with proper technology could make Indian products cost competitive and ensure economies of scale so as to enable increased exports and international presence in a bigger way.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature  Alliance)

People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 24 March 2007

Landmark IPCC Report

Global Warming Likely to Continue

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

The UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 2500-member strong group of scientists, in its fourth report issued in Paris recently, has presented overwhelming scientific consensus on greenhouse gas emissions and put the onus on these human-induced gases since the Industrial Revolution. In the past, climate scientists had made strides in pinpointing useful information and generating powerful computer models. In the new report prepared by scientists from 113 countries, researchers have gone one step ahead in using nearly two dozen models to produce projections of temperature and sea-level rises, all anchored with multiple lines of scientific evidence.

“Warning of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global mean sea level”, the report said. As expected, most of the increase in global averaged temperatures since the mid 20^th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. That is an advance since the Third Assessment Report’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”.  Discernible human influences now extend top other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.

Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21^st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20^th century. It is indeed significant to note that global temperatures are predicted to rise by 1.1 to 6.4⁰C with a rise of 4⁰C most likely by the year 2100, which would have disastrous consequences for the human race.

At Continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather, including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Indian scientists, who were part of the IPCC exercise, said that most computer-based models predict an increase in monsoon rainfall when the rise in only atmospheric carbon dioxide is taken into account. 

The obvious effects may be summarized as follows: loss of food production with global levels expected to fall by 10 per cent while African crops slumping between 15 and 35 per cent; increased flooding with sea levels rising up to 59 cm. and Bangladesh and Vietnam to be the worst hit countries along with coastal cities such as London, New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Kolkata and Karachi; upward trend is very likely in hot extremes and heat waves will continue; melting ice of West Antarctica and Greenland; more diseases exposing 80 million additional people; 25 to 50 per cent land species threatened with extinction; and water shortages affecting southern Africa and the Mediterranean severely. 

In fact, the situation today has reached a critical stage. It has been clearly stated in the report that even if concentrations could be held at the current levels, the effects of global warming would continue for centuries because it takes very long to remove the gases from the atmosphere. There is need to seriously ponder what needs to be done at this juncture as it goes without saying that eliminating the threat of global warming would require radical action.

The report has pointed out that a concerted action could stave off the direct consequences of global warming such as widespread flooding, drought and extreme weather conditions. Stabilizing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the primary contributor to global warming, would require reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 70 to 80 per cent. Such a reduction would bring equilibrium with the planner’s natural ability to absorb carbon dioxide. It may be worthwhile to recall here that the last time the planet was in balance was more than 150 years ago before the widespread use of coal and steam engines. 

Scrapping all fossil fuel powered electricity plants worldwide and replacing them with wind mills, solar panels and nuclear power plants would make a serious dent in the problem but the question remains whether this will become possible in the immediate future. Compounding the problem is the fast pace of industrial development that has been taking place in the Third World countries, especially in China and India.

The impact of climate change on food production has been an area of great concern. The effect of high temperatures may affect India’s rice production. Temperature is a major determinant of crop development and growth and studies reveal that rice yields would dip by 10 per cent for each degree increase in minimum temperature during the growing season. Climatologists expect that global mean air temperature may go up between 1.4 to 5.8 ⁰C by the end of the century, depending on changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.

With rapid population growth, rice production in the country has to be enhanced to about 122 million tonnes by the year 2020 to meet the increasing demand. But scientific studies presented at a recent conference of the International Rice Research Institute (in October 2006) have contended that the results of climate change impact may adversely affect rice yields not just in Northwest India but all over the country.

Even an impact assessment of climate change carried out on behalf of the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) indicated that though in the short-term, rice production may not be affected significantly; in the long-term climate change would have serious impacts. In another study on Northwest India by the ICAR, researchers pegged the range of yield reduction from the technological determined level from 7 per cent in 2020 to 25 per cent in 2080.  

The Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, Achim Steiner, stated and very rightly: “Anyone who would continue to risk inaction on the basis of the evidence presented will one day in the history books be considered irresponsible”. Another report by the Panel is expected later this year that would address the most effective measures for slowing global warming.

The Kyoto Protocol has so far been the main plan for capping greenhouse gases until 2012 but it has been severely weakened since the US pulled out in 2001. Though talks are under way for its post-2012 commitments, the participation on America and China is an urgent necessity. By some estimates, today’s emissions must be reduced by half globally by 2050 to peg the temperature rise by 2100 to 2⁰ C compared with post-industrial levels. However, at this juncture scientists the world over would eagerly await the measures, preferably country-specific and time bound, that are expected to be announced by the IPCC to control the pace of climate change and reduce global warming to the extent humanly possible.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 17 March 2007   

Growing Drug Addiction

Holi Hola Party: Oh Boy is this India?

By Dr. Syed Ali Mujtaba

The news flashed on the front pages of the major dailies on Monday, March 5, about the arrest of some 280 Holi party revellers at a Farm House on the outskirts of Pune city for drug abuse is an eye-opener to many Indians accustomed to reading about starvation deaths, farmer suicides, and female feticides in their newspapers.   

The revelations though a freak incident, undoubtedly point at three significant societal changes taking place in our country. One, India is moving on the path of high-end economic model. Two, drug abuse and alcoholism is on the rise among the youth. Three, certain sections of the youth, especially the yuppie crowd, is looking for promiscuous life style.

All these things come out glaringly if we recap the happenings at the rave party on the Sunday night. The participants had contacted the organizers through a website, www.isratrance.com that  was promoting the event from February 27.  They had received invitations via SMS, e-mails and through Orkut chat, paying hefty sums through credit cards. Some of them travelled from far off places like Kolkatta, Chennai, Bangalore and Ahmedabad to attend the party.

Allegedly organized by suspected international drug peddlers from Pune and Mumbai, the party had the guests served some 3000 `California drops, an acid that is put on a stamp and chewed. Each drop costs between Rs. 350 and 500. The party peaked at about 2 a.m and the crowd was in high spirits dancing to high voltage music, when a team of 100 policemen in plain clothes swooped on the venue and rounded up the revellers on charges of drug abuse and other crimes.

This was the first incident of such a high number of persons rounded up for such offences in the country. Those arrested were mostly youth aged between 22 and 30, including 29 girls. There were ten foreigners---three Africans, three Palestinians; two each from Germany and Iran. The girls ranged from students to air hostesses to Naval officers' daughters.

The items recovered from the spot included 2.5 kg of marijuana (ganja), 100 grams of hashish (charas), seven bottles of phenylfine hydrochloride, 15 crates of beer, 17 cheelams, cigarettes and condoms, all valued around Rs. 5 lakh. The police also seized a Dolby Music System, 45 four wheelers and 29 two-wheelers from the venue.

The big picture about the Sunday’s party is that too much money is going into the hands of a very small section of our people. This symptom has been evident since the liberalization of our economy some 15 years ago. The trickle down impact of the economy that was much touted really has not taken place. Instead, a small section of people has cornered a large portion of our wealth and resources. The kith and kin of such neuve riches are loaded with money and they look for spending opportunities. Such rave parties to them are tempting propositions no matter what these may cost.

The second noticeable trend is the mushrooming of IT offices, BPOs, and call centres in urban India. These places mostly thrive on outsourcing of jobs from abroad and provide tremendous opportunities for the urban youth. Young persons working in such offices are taking home hefty pay packets. With little expenses to bear, they have plenty of money to spare. Such people look for non-traditional source of entertainment. The rave parties are one hell of a place to spend the money and satiate one’s various desires. 

Such parties are also in demand for breaking the boredom of the insipid jobs that these flashy call centres, BPOs and IT offices offer. The jobs get on the nerves of the youth that are stuck there in the lure of big money. Many are forced to work for long hours and some even find themselves reduced to being slaves of their key boards and the monitor screens. Such persons, at the first opportunity, want to break their monotony and look for outings to unwind themselves.

The other fall out of the high-end economy is growing drug addiction among certain sections of the youth. Recently, we had the high profile case of Rahul Mahajan, son of the BJP’s late leader Promod Mahajan, who had to battle for his life after taking drugs. The incident took place at a private party in his home where his father's secretary lost his life due to overdose of the drugs.

The Sunday Holi party confirms that Rahul Mahajan’s case was not an isolated event to be brushed under the carpet. Such parties for drug consumption are regularly taking place in some urban centres among select circles of friends without anyone knowing about it.

The other offshoot of the high-end economy is that youth is increasingly getting attracted towards alcoholism. It is common to see youth these days revelling in the company of friends with alcohol and drugs. Come any festival, Diwali, Dusherra, Holi or New Year, such activities are fashionable among the urban youths. 

The high-end economy is also triggering promiscuity among sexes, particularly among the neuve riches. Recently, there was the high profile case of teenagers making pornographic video through the cell phone camera and sending it on the SMS to their circles of friends. This, in turn, made rounds of many handsets in the country and even hogged the limelight of the media. The public was shocked and asked: “Oh Boy is this India?”

In the mad and reckless race to catch up with the West, the things that are least admirable are being aped by our young generation. The movies, the TV serials, the pictures on the dailies and the tabloids are all pushing the youth towards  promiscuity.

Even though the Holi party was a freak incident of some adventurous people caught off guard seeking fun, it certainly hints at the societal changes taking place in our country. It is also indication of the fact that Indian values that hold high moral ground are losing their sheen due to the onslaught of the Western influences. This underlined the need to cultivate the right family values among our young so that when they become adult they don’t go wayward like the Holi Hola revellers at Pune.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)