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Economic Highlights
Doha Round Talks:UNREALISTIC & LITTLE HOPE, by P. K. VASUDEVA, 1 April 2008 |
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Events &
Issues
New Delhi, 1 April 2008
Doha Round Talks
UNREALISTIC & LITTLE HOPE
Dr.
P. K. VASUDEVA
It has been reported by the
commerce and industry ministry that India
is preparing for a WTO ministerial meeting in Geneva in May 2008. This has raised the hope
that there could be a successful resolution of the ongoing Doha Round
negotiations. The reason being attributed for this meeting is that the US would like to settle the Doha
agenda before the US
Presidential elections. While this is certainly in the interest of all the WTO
members, India should not
show undue haste to cobble together an accord just for the sake of
accommodating the US
election schedule.
The country has seriously taken
the WTO Director-General, Mr. Pascal Lamy’s suggestion that since there is no
point in continuing with the negotiations as one gets closer to the US polls, these
would need to be suspended around mid-year. According to him, a Ministerial
meeting held before the suspension would not only imply political acceptance by
the WTO member-States of the progress made before the talks are suspended, but
would also make it difficult for the next US Administration to ignore what has
been achieved at the negotiating table.
Lamy’s point of view seems to
have some weightage, but the more important point is to truly agree on a body
of accords that could then be formalised by the proposed Ministerial meeting. So
far the prospects of a meeting point between the developed and the developing
countries seem bleak. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago, the Commerce
Minister Kamal Nath made it clear that there were around 150 points of discord
in the farm negotiations, which had to be reduced to not more than 50 before a
ministerial could be held. The scale of the disagreement, as indicated by Nath is
the result of intense bargaining spread over nearly six years, which makes the
expectation of having two-thirds of the troublesome points being settled in the
course of another five or six weeks unrealistic.
This is one of the dangers the Doha
Round is facing today, one that could derail the WTO from the good work it is
currently doing (mainly in the dispute-settlement sphere) and also ‘defang’ it vis-a-vis future trade liberalisation
programmes. Nath has time and again emphasised that the content of any
agreement is much more important than meeting schedules, a point reiterated by
the EU Trade Commissioner as a principle earlier when he said viz the India-EU
trade talks that both New Delhi and Brussels wanted to
“deliver what is best for both of us and not the fastest”.
Much is being expected of the
revised agriculture and non-agriculture market access (NAMA) drafts, which will
be released shortly, as also of the services’ negotiations (of crucial
importance to New Delhi), which have finally got under way. The ground
realities, however, point to hurdles which will be difficult to cross in so
short a time.
The point of concern is that
the problems in the way of clinching an agreement on the Doha Round have been
there right from day one. This was more than six years ago, when the talks
began after the fourth WTO Ministerial conference held in Doha in November 2001, with two deadlines —
the original January 1, 2005 and the unofficial target of end 2006 — passing
without any substantive progress in overcoming the obstacles. Thus, it would be
nothing short of a miracle if, in the course of the next three weeks, a
worthwhile initiative suddenly materialises and produces results which have for
long eluded the best international trade negotiators.
Admittedly, a hastily
arranged patch-up is possible but, as New
Delhi has warned, any “accord” must stand or fall on
its contents and not on its scheduling. In fact, the strongest signal that the
Doha Round talks were as good as dead was hoisted in June 2007, when the G-4
Potsdam negotiations (among the US, the EU, India and Brazil) collapsed, with
the Commerce Minister stating unambiguously that the developed countries were
looking “at promoting and protecting the prosperity of their farmers” while in
India the effort was to protect “the livelihood of our farmers”.
The blame was put on Brazil and India for not being flexible. The
point being conveniently overlooked that the rich economies were expected to
sacrifice a proportionately larger part of their economic interest compared to
the poor in terms of the Doha Development Agenda. The gulf between the two
sides is still so wide that while, Kamal Nath focused on the problems in the
farm sphere, the EU Trade Commissioner, Peter Mandelson, said he was more
worried about the differences on issues pertaining to trade in industrial
goods. The responses indicate that the revised agriculture and non-agricultural
market access (NAMA) drafts, released in February 2008 by the chairmen of the
respective WTO negotiating groups in Geneva,
have made no effective progress.
Does this mean the end of the road
for the WTO? Not quite. Because while the Doha Round has failed to make
progress till now, trade liberalisation measures distilled from the earlier
rounds remain in force — rules and guidelines that can still be used by
aggrieved parties to seek redress from the WTO’s dispute resolution bodies.
Instructively, the latest beneficiaries have been both the developed and
developing worlds, the US,
the EU and Canada winning
their case against Chinese auto-part import tariffs, and India and Thailand having their stand on US
import conditions for shrimp exports upheld.
The Commerce Ministry has
done well to draw attention to the need to focus on the content of the Doha
Round negotiations rather than on the schedule. Admittedly, there is nothing
new in this because this has precisely been New Delhi’s stand over the past couple of
years. Even so, the issue has gained in importance now because of the critical
shortage of time available to the international community to get a WTO deal
done. This is perhaps why the emphasis has now shifted to the so-called
“horizontal” approach, in which participants in the negotiations are expected
to include officials, envoys and even Ministers.
As Nath has put it, the
urgency with which the negotiations need to be conducted has to be “calibrated
against the backdrop of realism” and, what is even more important, it has to
“match the aspirations of the developing world” and conform to the
development-oriented spirit of the Doha Round. While the telescoping of the
negotiations road-map is understandable, given the indispensability of getting
a deal signed and delivered by the end of the year, the ground conditions in
the different sectors are far from conducive.
Thus, if one takes the farm
scenario, the specific issues which have to be settled are not only quite
voluminous--the US Trade Representative, Ms Susan Schwab, has said that “a
significant number of the 40-odd outstanding issues” in the farm talks need to
be settled before Ministers can be asked to join the negotiations — the
differences among the various parties involved on a number of intra-sectoral
subjects remains as big as ever.
Further, while the talks on
agriculture--which have not made any substantive progress --have hogged the
limelight, the negotiations on market access for NAMA, as the Commerce Minister
sees it, have been plagued by the fact that the last draft text represented the
views of “only one set of advanced countries while almost completely
cold-shouldering the views of over a 100 developing countries”.
In view of all this, it is apparent
that the outlook for the Doha Round is bleak, and it remains to be seen whether
the fresh agriculture and NAMA drafts, to be presented shortly by the chairmen
of the two negotiating groups in Geneva,
will help to alter its fortunes. The problem is that even if they manage to do
so, there are a host of other areas such as services, rules, trade-related
intellectual property rights, etc, which may play spoilsport. Not because of an
intrinsic inability to resolve the differences, but because there is just not
enough time to discuss in-depth the problem-issues, without which a truly
useful Doha Round for the poor world would not be possible. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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Scarlett Keeling Case:BE SERIOUS ABOUT TOURISTS’ SAFETY, by Syed Ali Mujtaba,24 March 2008 |
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Events & Issues
New Delhi, 24 March 2008
Scarlett Keeling
Case
BE SERIOUS ABOUT
TOURISTS’ SAFETY
By Syed Ali Mujtaba
The rape and murder of British teenager Scarlett Keeling, on
a Goa beach has once again caught the attention of the nation towards the
growing crime against foreign tourists in India. Thanks to the media, the
darker side of ‘Incredible India’ is at full display.
Scarlett’s case is not the first of its kind. It’s only the
tip of the iceberg. Newspaper columns from different parts of the country are
often filled with reports of alleged sexual assaults on the foreign tourists
Earlier, three British women were raped and sexually
assaulted in Goa. Another report says a
British freelance journalist was raped by a guesthouse owner in Udaipur. An American
woman was molested at a temple in Pushkar. Two Japanese were gang-raped in Agra. A South Korean was
raped near Manali. Two teenage girls from Canada were sexually assaulted by
security guards at a hotel in Kerala.
One can add on to the list but it would be suffice to say
that these cases are assuming alarming proportion in the country. The
government statistics show that there were 19,348 rape cases reported in 2006,
compared with 15,847 in 2005 in the country. Trend suggests there has been no
let up in the crime against the foreign tourists. There is every reason to
believe that the crime graph would have gone up during 2007-08.
If one tries to do psychoanalysis of all such cases the
common thread is that most of the victims happen to be fair complexioned. Not a
single report of sexual assault has been reported against any black females.
Why?
Sudhir Kakar, an authority on human behavior explains that Indian
men prefer fair skin to the dusky ones. And, there is nothing fairer than
white. If one needs to be convinced on this point, one has to turn to the
matrimonial pages to find all the potential brides are fair complexioned!
Then there are very wrong impressions that some Indian men
carry about the white females. They are widely regarded as promiscuous who
treat sex as casually as shaking hands. So, if an Indian youth bothers a white
woman walking alone on the street, there is nothing abnormal about it. Seeing
such a sight, it’s the psychic disorder that comes into play, adds Kakar.
Notwithstanding such pithy comments, one has to accept the
fact that western tourists are a vulnerable lot. They usually haven't been around
long enough and their ignorance leads to their exploitation. Their polite responses,
which come across as being helpful and friendly are often construed as
something else. Their ignorance to distinguish between the right and wrong
signals make them easy prey to criminals.
The Government has finally been forced to take note. It is seized
of the matter and has reviewed the security measures with the tourism ministers
of different States. The State governments have been reminded of their
commitment to deploy tourists’ police at all important sites. However, so far
only 10 States have complied with the government order and the rest have shown
their inability due to unknown reasons.
The problem is not as simple –of issuing orders or of raising
a tourist police force. There are five million foreign tourists expected to
visit the country and their security issues need a serious thought. It is high
time that the Indian Tourists Development Corporation (ITDC) should play a
proactive role in this regard. Its offices, which have a presence in almost all
the tourists’ locations, have to assume a bigger role and responsibility to
handle the tourists. Since the tourists can connect such offices much more
easily, than the police station, the ITDC offices should be made the nodal
point to register such cases.
The ITDC offices then can take up issues of crime against
the tourists, and pursue it with local police officials. It should also as
starters save tourists from touts at the airports and the ever-fleecing taxi
drivers. Perhaps, specific counters should be opened by it at airports, train
and bus stations.
Unfortunately, the ITDC offices are functioning like a white
elephant. They have work but no responsibility. Rarely would they help tourists
except in few cases. It would be worthwhile to do conduct a survey amongst
tourists to what extent ITDC is of help to them and what is it that they expect
from it.
If tourism has to be promoted in a big way in our country, the
grey area of security of tourists needs special attention. Apparently whenever
there is some hue and cry in the media about tourists becoming victims, the authorities
get into action and try to improve the situation, which regrettably lasts only
a short while. And, then slips back into the same casual rot.
The onus of the security of tourists should also rest on other
stakeholders in the tourism industry. They must realize that the tourists are
“gooses that lay golden eggs,” and if they are maltreated or fleeced then they are
risking their own source of livelihood. The tour operators, hoteliers,
cab drivers, guides, shopkeepers and all those involved in the hospitality
sector should act as a watchdog to ensure that the tourists have a pleasant
stay in the country.
Unfortunately, this is not happening. Some unwanted elements
within the hospitality sector are denting India’s reputation as a safe and
easygoing tourist destination. Such persons, basically criminals operating
under the cloak of hospitality sector, need to be identified and reported to
the police. The hospitality industry should keep a track of cases involving tourists
long after they are gone and ensure that whoever be the criminals are brought
to book and justice done.
The stakeholders must too realize that all foreign tourists
are neither ‘money bags,’ nor ‘promiscuous’. Many of them could be less wealthy
then the average Indians and have come basically to see this beautiful country
and its people. We need to play good hosts.
Last but not the least, the onus of safety also lies on the tourists
themselves. They must take precautions rather than be casual or over confident
of their safety. The world-wide popular Lonely
Planet guide has cautioned women of the dangers of traveling alone in India. It
advises female tourists to refrain from wearing sleeveless blouses;
tight-fitting clothing or to present any bare dare look.
"Getting constantly stared at is something you'll
simply have to get used to in India.
Just walk confidently and refrain from returning male stares, as this may be
considered a ‘come-on’. Try freezing someone who is too persistent in his
attentions or getting uncomfortably familiar, and walk in a manner that puts
out a clear signal: don't mess with me. Don't accept invitations for a drink or
a movie or a ride from men they do not know,” says Lonely Planet.
The Scarlett Keeling case is neither the first incident nor
will be the last in the country. However, it has once again highlighted the horrendous
growing problem of molestation, rape and murder of tourists in the country. If
such incidents of ‘national shame’ are not halted immediately, we could just as
well bid goodbye to ‘Incredible India!’ -- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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Aviation Sector:High Potential for Growth, by Dhurjati Mukherjee,3 March 2008 |
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EVENTS & ISSUES
New Delhi, 3 March 2008
Aviation
Sector
High Potential for Growth
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The aviation sector in India is poised for a big leap
forward in the next five years with nearly 45 to 50 airports being revamped by
public and private players. Though the unprecedented expansion has become essential, the present infrastructure is woefully
inadequate to handle the growth perceived in the years ahead. But with increased
air travel becoming a reality because of reduced fares, the Government has
realized the need to give special emphases to this sector through
public-private participation.
According to a study by Assocham
and Ernst &
Young, India
would need at least 250 aircraft by 2012. While only 15 million passengers travelled by air in 2003-04, a little more
than the number of people who travel by rail in a single day, the figure was
almost 75 million in 2005-06 and is expected to reach 100 million by this year
end. Similarly, the number of aircrafts in the Indian skies, now about 290,
will witness an annual growth rate
of 15-20 per cent to keep pace with the increasing demand.
The Civil Aviation Minister, Praful Patel, has anticipated
an investment of Rs 100,000 crores in the next five years in fleet acquisition.
However, his estimates seem rather modest as Kingfisher alone has ordered for
50 aircraft amounting to Rs 20,000 crores at the last Paris show. Similarly the merged entity of
Air India
and Indian may buy more planes than the 111 ordered by them last year to cope
with increased traffic, both domestic and international. Out of these 68 Boeing
jetliners have been ordered for an estimated Rs 35,000 crores. Of these, 25
will be delivered in this fiscal year itself. Indian has also ordered another
43 Airbuses.
It is estimated that even with private airlines giving tough
competition, Air India
would need substantial more aircrafts as it would have to retire 65 planes over
the next three years. These planes would be passed on to the new cargo
subsidiary being floated by the public sector airline. Air India has also
joined the Lufthansa-led Star Alliance, which will help it to fly to many
European destinations from the hub that is to be set up in a European airport
shortly.
In fact, with traffic out of India
expanding at 25 per cent and Air India estimates it may need more
planes by 2011. “Looking at the demand and the passenger
growth, the number of additional aircraft needed would be in the region of 60
planes. But this is a very rough estimate”, pointed out the Air India chairman,
B.V. Thulasidas.
Besides, with the increase in fleets of both Air India and
the private players, the need for upgrading the airports is also being looked
into. Presently, only 62 domestic and 12 international airports are in active
use though the country has over 300 airports and airstrips. It may be mentioned
here that except Delhi
and Mumbai, no airport is equipped to handle the humongous A 380 of which
Kingfisher has ordered five.
Also, expansion and modernization of the existing airports
has been a key priority of the Government. While the Government is investing
around Rs 12,000 crores in modernizing the airports, current estimates indicate
that private investors would pump in Rs 24,000 crores in the coming years.
The modernization of the Delhi
and Mumbai airports, which handle around 40-42 per cent of the total traffic, are
already ongoing with an investment of Rs 5316 crores earmarked in the first
phase for the Delhi
airport and Rs 6130 crores for Mumbai. Both projects are expected to be
completed by 2009 and would compare with the best in Asia.
The Aviation Ministry has also decided that both Delhi and Mumbai would have more than one
airport in future to cope with growing requirement.
Regarding the Kolkata airport, the Airports Authority of
India (AAI) finalized its plan for an integrated international-cum-domestic
airport at a cost of Rs 17000 crores by 2010. Drawn up by the Aeroport de
Paris, the plan for the Kolkata airport would be executed by the AAI and work
is expected to start soon. The new modernized airport would have a capacity of
20 million passengers annually, up
from the current 5 million and would be capable to handle traffic till 2023-24.
Meanwhile the State Government wants the Kolkata airport to have two runways to
meet the growing future requirement.
According to records, 70 per cent of the total traffic is
concentrated in five airports (Chennai, Bangalore
and Kolkata apart from Delhi
and Mumbai). As such, these airports needed to be expanded and modernized to
ease congestion and ensure swift movement of passengers.
Apart from these airports, the Committee on Infrastructure, constituted by the
Prime Minister last year, approved the modernization and development of all the
35 non-metro airports by the AAI to world class
standards at an estimated cost of Rs 4662 crores. .
These airports are spread from the South (Thiruvanthapuram)
to the North (Jammu) and from the North East
(Imphal) to the West (Rajkot).
The land area of these airports ranges from 15 to 1500 acres. Though space has
been a major constraint for some of these airports, the AAI has finalized
airside plans for 24 of them, which will again be through public-private
participation.
Meanwhile the airport city theme is gaining ground with greenfield airports at Hyderabad
and Bangalore
providing enough scope. Further, the proposed cargo hub at Nagpur may include a special economic zone
(SEZ) besides logistics and a township. Hotels, retail space and various
entertainment options are being planned for Delhi and Mumbai as well.
In the ultimate analysis, the growth of the aviation sector
is crucial to the development of the country and also to the country’s status
as a major economic power. With the sector open to the private sector and fares
having come down, more and more people would prefer air travel. Thus it is necessary that the time schedule of the airports modernizing
work is maintained and completed in time. ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Human Development Dismal:URGENT NEED FOR CORRECTIVES, by T.D. Jagadesan,28 January 2008 |
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Events & Issues
New Delhi, 28 January 2008
Human Development Dismal
URGENT NEED FOR
CORRECTIVES
By T.D. Jagadesan
The UNDP’s Human Development Report is one of the most
eagerly awaited among the numerous reports published by the United Nations and
its agencies every year. During the last few years, the Human Development
Indicator (HDI) tables included in such reports have gained great acceptability
among the member countries because of the credibility of the data and fairness in analysis.
The HDI is a composite index assessing human development on three important criteria,
namely, a long and healthy life, access
to good education and reasonably good standard of living. The report provides
reliable information collected through a network of field agencies about life
expectancy at birth, enrolment in primary, secondary and higher education and the
Gross Domestic Produce (GDP) per capita in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
dollars. It provides a wide range of useful data.
Based on the data collected and analysed, UN member
countries are ranked according to their achievements in human development and
this ranking becomes for the ordinary citizens an easy guide to assess the
performance of their respective Governments.
The Human Development Report for 2007 which was released in New Delhi in the second
week of December last, focused on the issue
of climate change, and therefore, the attention of the people was mainly
centred on the implications of climate change on development.
We, in India,
have particularly to take serious note of the fact that on the criterion of
human development, our country ranks 128 in the list of 177 countries of the
world covered by the survey. A disturbing feature about this low ranking is
that India
has come two places down on its ranking from 2006.
One may argue that slipping two places is not so serious a
matter to worry about, but the fact that India has been at the 128th
rank even in 2000 is certainly a matter of great concern, particularly because,
of late, we have been talking too much about “India Shining”, “Rising India”
and about India being one of the fastest growing economies of the world”.
While we take credit for the fast rate of growth of the GDP,
we seem to be over looking the fact that on the index of human development, India is in the
lowest bracket of 50 countries covered by the UNDP survey. The country has no
doubt made some progress in life
expectancy, enrolment in education and the GDP per capita, but other countries
have also registered progress and
some have shown much better progress
than India.
Take for comparison two Asian countries, China, a country with which we love to make
comparisons, and Sri Lanka,
a small country which had gained independence at the same time as India.
According to the HDI, China
ranks 81 and Sri Lanka 99, as against India’s 128.
Besides, life expectancy at birth in China is 72.5 years, in Sri Lanka 71.6 while in India it is
63.7 years. The GDP per capita in terms
of the Purchasing Power Parity is $ 67.57 in China,
$ 45.95 in Sri Lanka and
only $ 34.52 in India.
We seem to be carried away by the 9 per cent growth rate of the
GDP. However, the GDP growth can be determinant of development only if it is
shared equitably by all sections of the people. Certainly, we cannot derive
much satisfaction from the growth rate of the GDP when more than a quarter of
the population in our country still lives in abject poverty.
If in spite of our oft-proclaimed good intentions to
eradicate poverty among the masses
and our allocating a fairly large share of public funds for human development
programmes, we find ourselves stationary at the low rank of 128.
According to observers, clearly, something is radically
wrong, either in our strategies for planning or in the contents and relevance
of the programmes we have adopted for human development. Or can it be that the
fault is not with our strategies for development or in the relevance of the
programmes, but in their implementation of the field level.
The all-pervading corruption in our society, particularly in
the public administration sector, has often been identified as the main cause
for the failure in the benefits of the development process
reaching the sections of the people which need them most. Perhaps, all these
are causes for the country’s poor record in human development.
Unfortunately, instead of making honest attempts at
corrective action, everyone is engaged in the easy game of throwing the blame
on the other. Politicians blame the bureaucrats for the laxity in the implementation
and for corruption, while the bureaucrats accuse the politicians of the same
crimes. Both politicians and the bureaucrats blame those engaged in industry
and business as the source of
corruption. While they, in turn, accuse the politicians and the bureaucrats as
being obstructionists in their paths.
In the bustle and din of the exercise of shifting the blame
for the unsatisfactory achievement in human development, very little attention is
being paid to the share of the responsibility of the Planning Commission for this poor record.
In sum, it is time that the Planning Commission, as the main agency for the formulation of
strategies, plans and programmes and also for monitoring their implementation,
turns the searchlight inside and comes up with bold suggestions for improving
its own role in achieving the goals of human development ---- quickly and satisfactorily. ----INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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Myth Of Incumbency:LESSONS OF GUJARAT ELECTIONS, by T.D. Jagadesan, 14 January 2008 |
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Events And Issues
New Delhi, 14 January 2008
Myth Of Incumbency
LESSONS OF GUJARAT ELECTIONS
By T.D. Jagadesan
The Gujarat elections have
thrown up several lessons which the
leaders of political parties can ignore only at their own peril. A few
important among these deserve special mention.
The first is the repudiation of the incumbency theory.
Whenever an election results in the defeat of the party in power, it has become
a regular practice to name incumbency as the villain responsible for it.
However, if we carefully analyse the various causes for the defeat of the
parties in power, it will be seen that inefficiency in administration and
corruption have been responsible for such reverses.
The incumbency argument has come to be advanced in the
defence of those defeated only in recent years. Jawaharlal Nehru was the Prime
Minister continuously 1946 to 1964 and led his party to victory in successive general elections. Instead of incumbency
becoming a disadvantage, his record, both on the grounds of efficiency and
cleanliness in administration, only
strengthened his indispensability for his party and the nation.
The Congress
Party was then not a monolithic organistaion with one supreme leader. Its
leaders included several persons with grassroots
level experience and sizeable following in their respective states. The Chief
Ministers and heads of party organization in various States continued for long
periods in their respective positions and led their party to victory, time and
again without incumbency proving to be a handicap at any time.
K. Kamraj, for instance, was Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu
from 1954 to 1965; B.C. Roy was Chief Minister
of West Bengal from 1948 to 1962 and Gobind
Ballabh Pant was Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh from 1946 to 1955 (when he
moved to the Centre as the Union Home Minister). Modi in Gujarat
is certainly not on par with a B.C. Roy or G.B. Pant or a Kamaraj as a national
leader, but one can say that his record of efficiency and integrity was a major
factor in his success in the
elections as had been in the case of the aforementioned national leaders in
their respective States.
Many ardent supporters and admirers of Modi have, in the
exuberance of their loyalty to him, claimed that his victory in the elections
was historic as it was achieved in spite of the incumbency. Yet the fact is
that incumbency is never a handicap for a leader who provides clean and
efficient administration. The Gujarat
elections have clearly exploded the myth of incumbency theory.
The second lesson
of the Gujarat elections is that development is the most potent argument for
winning an election in a country like India, which is still struggling to
cross the threshold of social and
economic progress. A lot of
information based on facts and figures was placed before the electorate by Modi
in support of his claims that substantial gains had been made in development.
They were no doubt challenged by counter arguments and statistics by the
Opposition. Ultimately, however, the people are the best judges about
development and no argument can convince them except their own experience.
A third lesson
from the Gujarat elections is that people are inclined to repose their
confidence in a leader who has proved to be capable of taking bold decisions in
the interest of the State rather than in others who try to win votes by
promising every good thing to everybody. Modi’s detractors in Gujarat
seem to have calculated that certain bold measures he had taken like, for
example, enforcing payment of arrears of electricity dues, would cost him the
votes of the farmers, and even tried to make it an issue
in the elections. But such bold action by Modi seems to have only enhanced his
reputation for courage in taking unpopular decisions.
Again, his decision to deny tickets to as many as 47 sitting
MLAs based largely on their poor performance had showed him up as a leader who
would not make compromises with sloth or inefficiency. The fact that 33 of the
47 new faces won the elections, has confirmed the people’s perception about him
as a leader who can take sound and bold decisions. The lesson
from such actions is that people will repose their trust more in persons with
courage to take quick and sound decisions than in leaders with a “please-all”
policy.
The Gujarat elections have
also served to deflate the exaggerated importance which has been attached to
caste and sub-caste loyalties at the time of elections. This is not to say that
caste is not a major factor in Indian elections. On the other hand, what the Gujarat elections have proved is that in a socially
advanced State, caste and sub-caste loyalties will have only a limited
influence in deciding the fortunes of the candidates.
Another important lesson
is that people do not favour opportunistic party-hopping by their leaders and
that the parties which welcome such persons to their fold are certain to suffer
from such decisions rather than be benefited from them. The Congress indirectly contributed to the victory of the BJP
in certain constituencies where it put up last-minute defectors from the BJP as
Congress candidates. If these people
were criminals and vicious communalists when they were with Modi, a quick
change from saffron to khadi could not have washed away their guilt instantly.
The ordinary people saw this action as opportunistic
endorsement of defections without any consideration for principles and
ideology. This affected the credibility of not only these candidates but also
of the Congress as a champion of
secularism. The refusal of the people to lend their support to most of such
defectors has proved that the people will no longer follow their leaders
blindly. They cannot be taken for granted. --- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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