EVENTS & ISSUES

New Delhi, 31 December 2007

After Benazir’s Death

PAKISTAN HEADING FOR ANARCHY?

By Sreedhar

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007 by an unknown assassin has dramatically changed the political landscape of Pakistan. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) sympathizers and supporters created mayhem across the country and this may continue for some more time, creating uncertainty all around.

If the situation is going to be a prolonged one, as many are speculating, it may result, in some drastic actions by the Government in power.

The immediate fallout of Benazir’s death appears to be that the US plans to usher in a moderate Government through elections in Pakistan have received a setback. Washington may find it very difficult to facilitate a change of leadership --- replacing President Musharraf with someone else. At present, he seems to be the only best bet to continue the US War on Terrorism in this part of the world.

The unfolding drama in Pakistan after December 27 shows that there is going to be pressure on Musharraf to hold the elections, which are likely to be swept by Benazir’s PPP. The reports coming from Pakistan also indicate that her husband, Asif Zardari would take over the Government in the event the PPP comes to power.

If we go by Asif Zardari’s background, he would do anything to keep himself in power. It will not be difficult for the Establishment to discredit Zardari say after six months. His notoriety as Mr.10 Per Cent during Benazir's previous rule is now known internationally. Even if he is a changed man now (I doubt very much) the pressures on him are going to be too many, especially from the Arab patrons of the radical Islamic groups.

Therefore, the so-called transition to democracy is going to be temporary, may be for six months. One can easily see that by July-August of 2008 political anarchy will come back to Pakistan.

Meanwhile, the evidence that is forthcoming about Benazir’s assassination clearly indicates that there is a certain amount of involvement of the Establishment in this crime. According to media reports, Benazir was wearing a bullet-proof jacket and this was known to the assassin. Therefore, he aimed his gun at her throat and forehead.

The Indian intelligence agencies suspect that there was a total lack of coordination among the various agencies protecting Benazir. Some even suspect that the rogue elements in the Pakistani intelligence set-up collaborated in this crime. The investigations by the PPP in the next few weeks are likely to pin-point the officials responsible for the murder of Benazir. All this is not going to be uncomfortable for President Musharraf.  

In this context, the first question that arises is: Will Musharraf be ready to take on the radical Islamic groups head on? Given that the radical groups have demonstrated their capabilities beyond doubt by the terrorist attacks on Benazir's convoy first on October 18, 2007 and again on December 27, 2007. The second attack proved that they meant business.

It is generally agreed among Pakistani observers, that the so-called 'rogue elements' within the Establishment facilitated the attack on Benazir. If so, the same elements are sending a signal to Musharraf and his supporters, in the event they launch an US-directed programme against the radical Islamic elements. If Musharraf succumbs to this terror tactics, the agenda for the future of Pakistan is going to be set by the radical Islamic groups and not the US.

The question now is what type of a scenario can one visualise for Pakistan in the coming months?

The first scenario could be of Musharraf and his Army taking on the radicals and crushing them. This is highly unlikely because Musharraf is no longer the Chief of Army Staff and one is not too sure how the present power structure looks upon such an action.

In addition, there is large section of the Armed Forces, especially among the rank and file, who are sympathetic to the radical Islamic groups. Therefore, it will not be easy for the Army to take tough action against these groups. If the top brass of the Armed Forces press for action against the radical groups it could lead to a split in the Army.

This leads us to the next possible scenario. Of the radical groups succeeding. In this event, can they capture power? The possibility seems to be highly likely. Even though the international community may not like such a development.

However, they may allow this type of anarchy to continue for sometime, till such time that the people get fed up and look around for basic security. Recall, the events in neighbouring Afghanistan in the mid-1990s when there was a total break down of law and order in the country. Fed up with the situation, the people were craving for security and had welcomed the Taliban initially.

No doubt Pakistan is not Afghanistan. There is a considerable amount of difference between the two situations. Still the possibilities seem to be quite high.

The only problem would be that the rest of the world will not allow this type of situation to happen. And all possible support from external agencies will come to the aid of the forces opposing the radical elements in Pakistan. In this event, Pakistan could head towards a bloody civil war leaving every one at a loss.

That takes us to the other possibility. The darling of the Arab world, Nawaz Sharif could hold the fort for the time being, to bring in a certain amount of normalcy.

The worst case scenario would be of the radical groups staging a comeback in the next year or so to recapture the territory they lost after the US launched its War on Terrorism in October 2001. The radicals know only too well that if they manage to capture political power in Pakistan they will gain access to the country’s nuclear weapons. The leadership of the radical Islamic groups also knows that it will not be easy for the US or any other power to repeat Afghanistan’s October 2001 scenario in Pakistan.

Moreover, the international community does not have any clear idea of the status of the nuclear weapons in Pakistan. From time to time official handouts by the Establishment indicate that the nuclear weapons are under the firm control of the Pakistani Armed Forces.

However, with the Armed Forces itself divided in their relations with the radical Islamic groups the whole nuclear weapons picture looks quiet hazy and uncertain. According to the reports coming from the US indicate that so far the radical groups have not gained complete control over the Pakistani nuclear weapons. In this situation if radical groups can gain even a little access, things could go out of hand for the rest of the month.

All this means that Pakistan is literally at the crossroads and could become a failed State. Slowly fragmenting into a number of mini and micro states. How the world will react to such a development is to be seen.

The radical Islamic groups being patronized by the Pakistani Establishment are at a loss not knowing how far their patrons in Islamabad would extend support to them in the present situation.

In the immediate future, Islamabad is bound to bring down its involvement with the radical Islamic groups operating in Jammu & Kashmir. One has to wait and see how Islamabad will behave in the medium and long term. The mandarins in South Block feel that a lot will depend on the stability in Pakistan. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

EVENTS & ISSUES

New Delhi, 24 December 2007 

The Modi Phenomenon

RIDING THE HINDU BACKLASH

By MD Nalapat

(Holds UNESCO Peace Chair, Prof, Geopolitics, Manipal Academy of

Higher Education, Ex-Resident Editor, Times of India, Delhi)

Although medical specialists know that a "half pregnancy" is impossible (either the lady is pregnant or she is not), yet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh clearly believes he can be "half" secular. In other words, that his Government can continue with visibly exclusionary policies, only in their case, those excluded are those belonging to the majority community. While he looks with approval on a communal mindset within minority groups, the Prime Minister of India seeks to confine the practice of secularism to the majority community.

Small wonder that across the country, a Hindu backlash is developing that is coalescing around Narendra Modi, who has broken the "Vajpayee Taboo" against Nehruvian policies. India's first Prime Minister was so nervous at the prospect of Hindu supremacy that he created a network of policies that, in effect, reduced the majority community to second-class status in India. Taking control of their houses of worship, depriving them of benefits given to the minority community and leaving the societal laws and customs of the major minority groups intact while passing legislation that affected only Hindus.

Especially since 2004, in a transparent effort to wean away Muslim voters from the regional parties ( which incidentally have a far better record of protecting their rights than the Congress), both Sonia Gandhi as well as Manmohan Singh have sought to create a fear psychosis among Muslims and Christians that they are facing discrimination in India

Very defintely, there are numerous excluded Muslims and even a few Christians. But they are hardly alone in their pain. Almost all the communities in India (barring affluent and minuscule groups such as the Jains and the Parsis) face the politics of exclusion in one part of the country or the other.

For example, the Brahmins are mercilessly baited in Tamil Nadu by the UPA's second most important component, the DMK. In many parts of Kashmir, the Hindus are an endangered species, and dozens of temples have been destroyed in the State since 1989. Despite documentation of such crimes, neither Sonia nor Manmohan has even acknowledged this cruel reality.

The Sonia-Manmohan effort to create a conscious divide between Hindus on the one hand and the Muslims and the Christians on the other has led to the Narendra Modi phenomenon, where a master strategist has capitalised on the growing discontent within Hindu society at the way they are being portrayed as supremacists, when the reality is that the minorities in India have by far the best deal as compared to those in almost any other country. Covering up this reality is an action that casts a shadow on the future of India 

The Christian community can be proud of their immense contribution to education, health and other social fields, a contribution far in excess of their number. Yet a tiny minority within them is creating a backlash against the community, by constantly portraying the majority community and its faith in the most lurid and abusive terms.

For example, in today's international order, the United States is far and away the most important country, one crucial to future economic progress in India. In Congressional commiitees, in the lecture circuit and in the pulpit, a constant stream of negative information about India is being disseminated by Christian groups based in India. The spokespersons for these claim that India is a "hell" for Christians and that rapes of nuns, murders of priests and burning of churches ids commonplace.

As a result, the image of India in several US minds (including key legislators) is that of a fanatic Christian-hating country that has no claim to belong to the civilised world. The only individuals happy at this mis-characterisation of India would be the ISI, or geo-political rivals of India such as China

Why has Sonia Gandhi not been more active in defending the people of India, especially the Hindus, from the charge that they are supremacist and exclusionary? Instead, her constant refrain has been that the minorities are in deadly danger, and that they, therefore, need to run for shelter under the cover provided by Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.

Incidentally the two are both members of minority communities who do not seem to have done too badly out of India. Such a Jinnah-style policy embeds within itself the danger of a Hindu backlash, and this is precisely what is on view in Gujarat.

India has come a long way from the Nehru era, when the colonised mindset of fear and awe towards the Government was the principal one. These days, the people are starting to question the past and the present, a needed process in building up a secure future.

Gujarat has shown what the political map of India could be in just a few years, now that the majority of the voters of that State have decided that enough is enough, and that the Nehru-era policies and practices that seek to contain and marginalize the Hindus ought not to be allowed to continue.

The only way such a backlash can be contained is to ensure that the Constitution of India gets followed, and India is made a genuinely secular country. This means the framing of policies that are religion-neutral, and which impact equally on all faiths rather than just on a few or even one.

Gujarat has brought into the open the anger of the majority community against policies that exclude them from benefits given to selected minorities, and both Sonia Gandhi as well as Manmohan Singh would do well to heed the warning, rather than confine themselves to the abuse of Narendra Modi. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 10 December 2007

Gujarat Elections

CONGRESS LOSES INITIATIVE

By T.D. Jagadesan

No soon do elections come around that the political parties start looking for the voters they had discarded five years ago. This time round, nothing is more blatant and insulting than the Congress Party’s attempts to “appease” the Muslims in Gujarat.

Five years of silence has suddenly been broken by the half-hearted attacks on the ‘Ugly Indian’ (read Narendra Modi), even as Congress leaders are secretly in touch with the ‘supposed’ rebels in the BJP. Notwithstanding, that the rebels are as culpable as Modi for the ‘pogrom’ that shook the foundations of secular India.

Opportunism and tokenism might or might not win an election, but it definitely does nothing to strengthen secularism in the country. The fight against the communal forces should have been waged as a virtual war from the day innocent citizens were brutally mobbed, raped and murdered. Instead of the Congress, Lalu Yadav and others addressing the minority constituency now and taking up cudgels against the perpetrators.

The battle had to be fought relentlessly, but every political party claiming to have stakes in Gujarat, let the people of India down. They let the State be run by the ‘Ugly Indian’, who was in fact, hailed by representatives of the Congress-led UPA coalition as a “great administrator.” Who allowed the minorities to be reduced to second-class citizens.

It is not as if the Congress and its leaders did not know what was happening. But they couldn’t care less, as elections were still far away. The PM, Congress President and the Prime Minister-in-waiting who now appear to be interested in making some kind of a show in the beleaguered State, stayed away for a full five years. Even as activists staged demonstrations, moved the courts and tried to get some justice for the traumatized people of the State.

They have been left alone to deal with the trauma of death and insecurity, and know, as did Ashan Jafri in his last hours before the mobs butchered him, that the Congress is in no position to help. The Tehelka exposure that is suddenly exciting comment uses the same group of BJP perpetrators to disclose what the victims have been stating from the day mob fury broke out.

Why? Because confessions by criminals are more honest than the testimonies of the victims. There is enough on record to nail the ‘Ugly Indian’ and his conspirators in crime and one does not need to depend on these statements, which in any case, are relevant only to bring the murders to book. They cannot be taken into the secular fight for justice.

But that has not happened. No one in the Government or in the Congress has the courage to use the Tehelka tapes to imprison these rebels. All they are dong is to “shush” the BJP, make a few speeches lauding their own commitment to secularism, and using the tapes to score points. Rather than pointers for direct action.

Communalism cannot be fought by soft communalism. The RSS and the BJP cannot be countered by a Congress that is always looking over its shoulder for votes, frightened that by speaking for justice and the security of the minorities would alienate the majority. A Party which lost its ideological moorings a long time ago today cowers the moment it hears a communal “boo.”

The Muslims are not fools. Except for the highly ‘purchasable’ imams and maulanas, the Muslim janata knows that the sudden interest being shown by the Congress has all to do with the forthcoming elections and nothing to do with their real problems. Topping the list is security.

The term of the Liberahan Commission has been extended by another two months. This is over 15 years after it was appointed on the demolition of the Babri Masjid. Some one is running sacred, and it is definitely not the BJP.

Either the Commission has allowed itself to be buffeted by political considerations, or it has not done its work while drawing the perks of office. Or it has come to no conclusion as it does not want to displease any political power. Or the Congress is running sacred and does not know how it will handle what will definitely be a controversial report, regardless of what the Commission says or does not say.

Justice again is being denied, and not to the Muslims, but to the Indian nation, for which secularism and democracy are as vital as oxygen is for its citizens. On the Srikrishna report, the Congress made some noises as it felt that the implementation of the recommendations of the Report could bring it some goodwill from the minorities.

But after a few tentative statements, the Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh and his mentors in Delhi backed off with the babus preparing to cover the Srikrishna report again in a white cloth that substitutes rather effectively for a coffin.

Sadly, scores of reports on communal violence, be it by the PAC in Uttar Pradesh or against the Sikhs in Delhi, lie forgotten. And if there is any movement forwards it is only because of vigilant social groups and occasionally the judiciary.

Security is the issue that is foremost on the Muslim agenda. It cannot be addressed by “appeasement” which basically means token statements, announcement of useless schemes that are never implemented, conferences targeting the minorities, high-level appointments, visits to Muslim shrines etc.

No doubt some imams will appear to stand by the side of the Congress leaders as cameras click, just as they did when BJP’s Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. There is no dearth of these gentlemen willing to sell their souls for recognition and more importantly, money.

But all this does nothing for the angry young people in Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh who find the State pitted against them. Who find that they are the first suspects in any terror attack. Who find that their tomorrow is not guaranteed as the State conspires with the communalists to push them back further into the ghettos from which they have been trying to escape.

They say the ‘Ugly Indian’ is a good administrator. In fact, Congressmen who head the campaign in Gujarat assert, “Of course we know what he has done, but you have to acknowledge he is a great administrator.”

Is he? Can a Chief Minister who has ensured that a large section of the population cowers in fear, and is denied its rights, be a good administrator? Is this the way Governments are judged today, only by statistics and not by the reality on the ground?

Growth statistics, regardless of deepening poverty; good administration, regardless of the pogrom and the continuing exercise of State terror. Globalisation has certainly changed definitions and shifted indicators of growth from the people to paper.

The elections in Gujarat are not about Hindus and Muslims. The elections in Gujarat are about justice and injustice. The ‘Ugly Indian’ through sustained propaganda has kept the communal fires simmering. The Congress, sacred and uncertain, has lost the initiative and has no idea where to start the campaign from even now. Precious days have been lost and the Congress has little to offer except a few emotional speeches in the hope that this hoodwinks the Muslims masses outside Gujarat at least.

The Mulims are Indians. And Indians are not fools. --- INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

EVENTS & ISSUES

New Delhi, 26 November 2007

Factionalism in BJP

IS MODI  INDIA’S FUTURE?

By M D Nalapat

(Holds UNESCO Peace Chair, Prof, Geopolitics, Manipal Academy of

Higher Education, Ex-Resident Editor, Times of India, Delhi)

Indians seems to be unusually curious about their leaders. How many of us know that Sonia Gandhi has two sisters, and that the three completed secondary school in Italy before finding work? How many are aware of the domestic arrangements in the life of Atal Behari Vajpayee? Almost none. And a similar ignorance is manifested about an individual who, if he wins once again in Gujarat, could emerge as the main challenger to Sonia Gandhi's ascendancy in 2009, Narendra Modi.

Rather than the 16 per cent growth rate of his State, the Gujarat Chief Minister is defined in the media by the post-Godhra riots, the rest of his record being ignored as completely as those who were torched to death on the Godhra train.  The act of violence that sparked an inexcusable pogrom against innocents from the next morning. Interestingly, most of those directly involved in the violence are now on the anti-Modi side, being backed by a Congress Party which is aware of the danger its minority votebank faces from a Modi victory next month

The riots themselves followed a three-stage pattern, and sadly, this pattern has gone unnoticed by the media. The first stage was a frenzied public reaction to the torching of the train compartment that manifested itself in the form of attacks on members of the minority community. After two days, the victims organized themselves and began to retaliate, so that in this round, it was mostly members of the majority community that lost their lives.

The next and final stage of the post-Godhra riots was the most vicious, and according to some accounts, the funding for the well-orchestrated killing during this round came from members of a (majority community) mafia that wanted to break the monopoly that another mafia ( which was populated by members of the minority) had over the illicit liquor trade in Gujarat.

As in the ill-advised attempts to bring back Prohibition into Haryana, the banning of alcohol in Gujarat has not stopped the consumption as much as it has spawned the growth of a vicious mafia to run the trade, which nets an estimated profit of Rs 3200 crores in unaccounted money.

Almost all the deaths during this “majority” mafia-funded phase of the Gujarat killings were caused to the minority community. And by the conclusion of the carnage, the "minority" mafia had been driven out of the liquor trade in favour of the "majority" mafia. This battle for spoils was  behind the third and most brutal phase of the killings.

Clearly, it is a matter of shame that the Central and State Governments were unable to prevent either this or the second and third stages of the post-Godhra murders from getting played out. Prompt action would have saved 90 per cent of the lives lost in the Gujarat orgy that has blackened the face of India.

But equally with Narendra Modi, the then Central Government headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee needs to be faulted for its failure to prevent the killings of hundreds of innocent citizens, most of them members of the minority community.   

Moreover, exactly as the 1992 Ayodhya incident had shadowed the Congress Party, the post-Godhra killings since 2002 have significantly affected the BJP's ability to bring together a coalition of parties under its leadership. The TDP and the AIADMK being just two examples of major political parties unwilling to risk their minority votebanks by aligning with the Saffron Party.

True, Modi has become anathema to liberal and secular India, but what has yet to be attempted is a full examination of his life. Who, for example, is aware that the teenager Modi spent nearly two years of his life at the foothills of the Himalayas, seeking wisdom? Or, as acquaintances say, that he was married off against his will at the age of 14 by his father to a girl two years younger, whom he never saw subsequently? Because of the age factor, this wedding was not legal, and the young girl in question is today a schoolteacher in Gujarat, living out her life in obscurity.

Modi's father had apparently been afraid that his headstrong son would become a sanyasin, and hence sought to tempt him into a householder life. However, the strong-willed Modi refused the conjugal bed and has since kept away from his would-be spouse, by not meeting her even once after the "kanyadan”. In an era when politicians live lives of luxury, the Gujarat CM stands out for a sanyasin-like austerity  

Because Modi has stopped the spoils system, in contrast to Keshubhai Patel, under whom a culture of deal-making flourished, he is unpopular with the many who see politics as the surest path towards enrichment. Unlike in the past, these days, officers in Gujarat --- whether in the police or in other branches of the administration --- work without fear of punitive action by politicians angered by their refusal to entertain suggestions for graft.

These days, the surest way to sudden tax-free wealth is to be an anti-Modi BJP functionary, and the Congress Party is known to be generous in its assistance to such elements. A check of the funding behind the numerous anti-Modi rallies and gatherings would be instructive.

Over the past six months, a crescendo of criticism has been heard about Narendra Modi, as much from within his Party as also from the Congress, with the intention of causing his defeat in the forthcoming State Assembly polls. Should the BJP return to power in Gujarat, the credit for that will go to just one man, Narendra Modi.

Precisely what many within the top rungs of the BJP are afraid of. These "second tier" leaders have prospered through compromise and adjustment, with most having more friends in the Congress ranks than within the BJP. They have come to hold high offices not because of grass-roots work, but because of the patronage of the two patriarchs of the Saffron Party, Vajpayee and Advani, and have spent almost all their time in "durbar" politics.

A Modi victory would represent a challenge from the grass-roots to the coterie system that has been in control of the BJP almost since the Party's inception, certainly since the mysterious death of Deen Dayal Upadhyaya.

With a third Assembly triumph in Gujarat under his belt, Modi would emerge as the most popular and therefore most powerful BJP leader, eclipsing Vajpayee. Over the past five years, he seems to have moved away from religion-based politics into issues of development, embracing both the English language as well as the MNCs in his push to make Gujarat a state as affluent as California.

Should he win, hopefully he will make it a priority to reach out to the minority communities, for only an inclusivist India can be a prospering India. Should he win, the next official post that Modi may occupy is that of Prime Minister of the Republic of India. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)