Round The World

New Delhi, 26 June 2008

Indo-US Nuclear Pact

A SIGNED DEAL OR MISSED OPPORTUNITY?

By Monish Tourangbam

(School of International Studies, JNU)

The past few days have seen a flurry of activities concerning the Indo-US nuclear deal. After what seemed like a self-enforced reconciliation to the demise of the deal, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh woke up with renewed activism.

Just as the postponement of the June 18 UPA-Left Coordination Committee Meeting to June 25 became public, the Congress and the Left engaged in intense parleys to rope in allies to their sides. But, the anxiously awaited rescheduled meeting, which was stormy, just managed to avert a final showdown. Post-meeting statements only confirm a future meeting.

Even as the official reason given for the postponement of the June 18^th meeting was the External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s preoccupation with the visiting  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, there was very little doubt as to the actual reason behind the deferment.   

At least, it was unclear why the scheduling clash was only discovered at the last minute. Quite clearly, the Congress saw reasons miniscule for going ahead with the meeting unless there was some shift from positions that has deadlocked the deal till now. Certainly, it wanted to take the allies along in an effort to break the impasse with the Left. Despite being able to get some crucial faces to come forward in support of the deal, no one seems to be interested in going for early polls. As such, the most popular line around is, “We support the deal, but not at the expense of the Left’s support.”

Even, Congress insiders are found wanting their resoluteness to sacrifice the Government for the sake of the deal, running counter to the vigour of the Prime Minister. Party strategists feel this is the least opportune time to sell the deal as a ‘development issue’ when the party has encountered serious reverses in Karnataka and the issues of inflation, fuel price hike and terrorism are acutely dampening its image.

Interestingly, the UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi sees the international oil price hike and its fallout as reason enough for recognizing the importance of nuclear energy. As for Mukherjee, a key intermediary in the talks with the Left, it has been a hectic schedule. He has been attending a number of meetings, in an effort to take the allies along and keep the communication channel open with the Left at the same time.

He even had to delay his Australian tour in the wake of the heated domestic debate. But, his successive meetings with CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat have borne little result, with the latter refusing to budge from the position hitherto maintained.

Karat has repeatedly refused to reconsider anything to do with the operationalisation of the 123 Agreement. He has blatantly warned the Government not to go the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors with the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement Draft.

Mukherjee has been a vocal advocate of the India-US civilian nuclear deal. Speaking at the 107^th annual meeting of the Merchants’ Chambers of Commerce in Kolkata in mid-June, in the presence of West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, also a CPM politburo member, he reiterated the need for nuclear power resources.

Commenting that the percentage of power generated from nuclear resources in India was insignificant compared to developed countries like France and the US, Mukherjee dwelt on the need of nuclear energy “to meet our future demands and to allay environmental concerns.” He said that global nuclear power majors like Areva of France have already evinced an interest in setting up nuclear power plants in India.

It is worthwhile discussing the interest shown by both France and Russia in nuclear commerce with India. Both have come out supporting the deal, albeit with caution. The French Ambassador Jerome Bonnafont, left no doubts that an agreement between India and France on civilian nuclear energy cooperation could not be signed without the IAEA nod and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) exemption as it violated international law.

His Russian counterpart Vyacheslav Trubnikov said an India-Russia draft agreement could not be signed as it went against international laws that Russia recognized, thus pointing to the aforementioned pre-requisites. Trubnikov’s comments assume significance in view of the Left’s criticism of India not inking the deal with Russia.

The Left has also criticized the Government’s reluctance to share the text of the safeguards’ agreement. Well, the main irritant for the Left is not the particulars of the draft but the fact that it is tied to the 123 Agreement.

So, what difference would it make if the draft were to be shown? The Left would still stick to “instinctive anti-Americanism” and taking the agreement to the IAEA minus the 123 Agreement would render it useless. Why would the IAEA be interested in discussing a piece of paper that has no future?

As for the Opposition, its emphasis on a redrafting of the deal can mean two things. One, it wants to distance itself from sharing the blame for blocking the nuclear deal with the Left. Two, it wants to keep open the prospect of renegotiating the deal in future, by a “BJP Government”—a view bolstered by its recent electoral performance.

The nuclear deal has been a potent force in the political scene, receiving prime time in all forms of Indian media, unlike the US where the same is not true. The deal lost its steam, the Bush administration nears its last days and the American media preoccupies itself with the presidential nominees. Despite the Bush administration’s commitment to support the deal till its very last days, precisely till January 20 next year, questions remain over the prospect of the deal, with the run-up to the presidential elections overshadowing everything else and the US Congress itself going for fresh elections in November.

It is worthwhile mentioning that Ashley Tellis, one of the key negotiators of the deal and now a key adviser of the McCain campaign, while talking to media persons on June 11, said it would be impossible for the US Congress to clear the deal even if India went ahead and secured the IAEA safeguards agreement.

In fact, it is a period of transition all around, with the impending Indian and US elections and moreover, Mohamed El Baradei, the Director General of IAEA retiring in July. Speculations abound regarding the future of the deal. As Naresh Kumar, a former Indian envoy to Washington, told Reuters before the June 18 meeting was postponed, “Whether the next governments of India and the US negotiate it or renegotiate it, these are things that are in the realm of conjecture.”

When Prime Minister Singh will meet President Bush on the sidelines of the upcoming G8 Summit in Japan, they would think as to what they are drinking to: a successful deal or a missed opportunity? Will the current spurt of activities prove to be the final gasp for the deal? The answer is anybody’s guess. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 25 June 2008                  

Amarnath Yatra Controversy

COMMUNALISM AT ITS WORST

By Insaf

Communal politics was at its diabolical worst in Jammu and Kashmir this past week. Scandalously, a section of Kashmiri Muslims, led by the Hurriyat and other separatist leaders, are protesting against the allotment of 100 acres of forest land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB), which manages the annual pilgrimage of the Hindus to the cave shrine, saying it is a “ploy to turn Muslims into a minority in Kashmir.” Not only has a divided Hurriyat Conference come together on the issue after six years, but the Congress-led government’s coalition partner, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) wants the land transfer to be revoked and is holding a meeting on Monday to consider pulling out of the Government. This apart, for the first time, Kashmir University students have joined the protest. The outgoing Governor, Lt Gen S K Sinha, who is the chief of the Board and his CEO, Arun Kumar have come under fire.  Worse, the land controversy has polarised the political parties, wherein those in Muslim-majority Kashmir have their guns trained at those in Hindu-dominated Jammu and vice versa.

The allotment of the land at Baltal in Sonmarg and Domail at Phalgam, to the SASB for developing an Amarnath colony for smooth pilgrimage was made by the Congress-led government of Ghulam Nabi Azad, who hails from Jammu, on May 26. The Kashmiri separatists are, however, using the excuse that the colony for the pilgrims, under construction “will pollute the environment of health resorts of both Pahalgam and Sonmarg!” The PDP’s Deputy Chief Minister Muzzafar Hussain Beg has gone a step further and absurdly alleged that the Board has plans to put up permanent structures “to settle non-Kashmiris and change the Muslim-majority character of the Valley.” Governor Sinha has rubbished this as “an orchestrated campaign” and not a single permanent structure has been constructed by the Board. The BJP, led by L K Advani sees the controversy as a dangerous ploy -- “to stop forever the annual pilgrimage”. His fear is compounded further by PDP’s Mufti Mohammed Sayeed asking Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad to “re-look on the desirability of a separate Board.”

The controversy is getting murkier with the Jammuites countering the separatists’ protests by questioning the construction of the Mughal Road connecting the border districts of Rajouri and Poonch with Shopian in the Valley. The BJP has said that the Road will not only pose a danger to the bio-diversity of the area but will also help the protagonists of Greater Kashmir as well as Pakistan achieve what they couldn’t in 60 years.” Besides, it feels that a section of the government is resorting to a disinformation campaign to discredit the yatra, because contrary to reports no one had died of a stampede during the pilgrimage. Regrettably, religious polarization has never been so worse, and that too in a militancy-ridden State, which is yearning to limp back to normalcy.

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Telengana Springs Surprise

The Telengana issue is not dead, nor the Telangana sentiment, contrary to what all the major political parties started believing following the rout of the Telengana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in the recent by-elections. The separatist sentiment, a major headache for the ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh, hit the main Opposition Telugu Desam Party (TDP) on Monday last when two top leaders, including T. Devendra Goud, considered No.2 in the party, resigned from the TDP and also from the Assembly. The resignation of a top backward class leader has come as a sever jolt to the TDP and its leader, N. Chandrababu Naidu. Goud has not yet spelt out his future plans. But it is almost certain that he will launch a party of his own for the creation of Telengana as a separate State. He has experience and stature, having served as excise, revenue and home minister at different points of time. Importantly, a number of TDP and other leaders in favour of Telengana are in touch with Goud and may soon join him. 

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Floods Fury in Eastern Region

The governments of West Bengal, Assam and Orissa are swamped in trouble, with the flood situation turning grim last week in all three States. In Bengal, so far around 23 lakh people have been rendered homeless, 16,000 houses destroyed, crops worth crores of rupees damaged and 25 people killed in East and West Midnapore Districts. The Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee government announced a relief package of Rs 6 crore for the affected areas and the Army had to air drop food packets, basic medicines and drinking water. Too late, according to the Congress. It slammed the Left Front government for its “callous approach,” as it had been forewarned by the weather department, but made no contingency plans! However, the tables were turned on the Congress in Assam, where its government under Tarun Gogoi admitted that the State, too reeling under floods, has been tackling the situation “with ad hoc measures”. Eight lakh people are homeless and 22 have died so far in Assam. In Orissa too over 10 lakh people in 900 villages are reeling under flood fury. The Naveen Patnaik government has sought more helicopters from the defence ministry for relief operations. The Centre would need to come to their rescue.

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Sikhs Run Riot In Mumbai

Mumbaikars were yet again held to ransom, this time not by the Shiv Sainiks or Maharashtra Navnirman Sena workers, but by the Sikhs in the north-eastern suburb of Mulund. Saturday last saw Sikh mobs armed with lathis and swords attacking vehicles and trains and squatting on railway tracks, protesting the killing of a Sikh by bodyguards of the chief of Dera Sacha Sauda Sect, Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. The latter was shopping in Mulund on Friday when Sikh protestors confronted him and one of his bodyguards allegedly fired killing a protestor. Ironically, the Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray, infamous for taking issues to the streets is angry about the “open display of swords, assaults on innocent people, forced closure of shops and vandalizing property”. And, sees no reason why the common man and public property should be targeted. After all it was the “Shiv Sena which protected Sikhs in Mumbai in 1984 during the anti-Sikh riots”. Thackeray has warned that if the Sikhs repeated the act “we will hit back.” The question that he needs to answer is-- wouldn’t the common Mumbaikar be affected then?  

Jharkhand Goes International 

The tribals of Jharkhand are like the good old hindustani proverb ‘ghar ki murghi daal barabar.”  Even as their art goes unrecognized in their own country, its beginning to catch international gaze. For them all roads now lead to Rome. Indigenous art form of Kohvar and Sohrai paintings, from Hazaribagh district is not only being show-cased in the cultural capital of the world, Rome, but is gathering much interest and money. Over 100 replicas of the traditional wall and cave paintings, produced by mud-treated cloth and paper along with three lifestyle murals have become the centre of attraction at an exhibition in Luigi Pigorini National Museum of prehistory and Ethnography in Rome.  Thanks to the initiative shown by the Hazaribagh-based Tribal Women Artists Cooperative (TWAC) in taking the exhibition to Rome, there may be no looking back for the tribals hereafter.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 27 July 2008

RBI Annual Statement 

INDIA HEADING FOR STAGFLATION?

By Shivaji Sarkar

 
Is India heading for stagflation? Reserve Bank Governor YV Reddy says it has never happened in India and is unlikely. But, his Annual Policy Statement for the current fiscal is unclear of what he is saying. It hints at global stagflation.

A look at the RBI statement suggests that it is replete with scepticism about the economic scenario. The scepticism is linked to the inflationary tendencies. When the statement was released inflation was at seven plus per cent. Now it is crossing 11.05 per cent, based on wholesale price index (WPI). At the retail level it means five to six per cent more. It may be recalled that in 60s and 70s inflation was measured in terms of consumer price index (CPI). Coupled with this, the last quarter industrial growth has slipped to an alarming three per cent.

It is also a pointer to what Congress spokesman Abhishek Singhvi has remarked in an article, "Invisible hand of market, in the Indian context, cannot fulfil the supply-side constraints (something that also causes anxiety to RBI governor) - it cannot provide water, sanitation, rural infrastructure and connectivity. The pace, content and grammar of growth cannot be unidirectional; equitable growth is must."

In its previous statement early this year, the RBI had predicted the rise in inflation but had hoped it would not surpass 5.5 per cent. The Governor still feels it is the ideal level and is prodding the Government to bring it down. But it seems unlikely. Though the RBI assessment is no different from that of Singhvi and not as vocal, it is indicative of the flaws in the growth pattern.

In fact, the Reserve Bank is too scared of "overall uncertainties", when it states: "It is useful to recognise the anticipated global slowdown and heightened uncertainties in to mounting pressures. Whether the slowdown would have a moderating effect on inflationary pressures or whether the global economy would slip into stagflation is not clear".

In regard to interaction between global and national economies, the Bank sees some revival of protectionism globally as for food and fuel policies. This, it feels makes the impact of the global economy on India, particularly in regard to inflation capital flows, "extremely difficult".

While noting there is greater inflationary pressure than expected, Reddy tries to reassure the domestic consumers that "growth would be on projected path". However, in the same breath he adds that economic integration is global and so is inflation. "There are unprecedented dilemmas and response of market not assessed. It is an extraordinary global situation".

Besides, he cautions "There are too many uncertainties and we may have to prepare for adverse developments". In reality, the steps of squeezing money out of public circulation, raises interest rates and that further add to the inflation. Raising CRR to 8.5 per cent may help theoretical considerations but practically it would create problems for the both the people and the market.

In such a grim scenario, the statement is vague on the sustained growth path. "Growth forecasts have been moderated in the face of the financial turbulence and the anticipated slowdown in the US economy". It simply means that the RBI has views that are different from the Finance Ministry and foresees a slowdown at the national level. Does it mean the country is waiting for a severe recession? RBI is silent on it, but eloquent about increasing dangers of global recession.

It does, however, express concern over the "demand driven economy and supply side pressures". Simply, that demand for goods – particularly food and other commodities – are more than could be supplied in the market. The prediction: “Supply side pressures are expected to persist in the coming months with considerable uncertainties surrounding the evolution of key commodity prices and second order effects".

The analysis thus is that relief to people is not in sight in the near future as too many negative effects are foreseen. It enlists the reasons as pressures from international food and energy prices, risks from financial markets – leading to enhanced vulnerability of the financial system. RBI expressing concern says, "There was growing uncertainty as to when, how and to what extent would the withdrawal of liquidity take place and impact economies like India".

That there is little relief from the present inflation-recession scenario is evident from the firm statements of the RBI – "Volatile capital flows, large movements in cash balances of the government and consequent changes in liquidity conditions continue to complicate monetary management".

The RBI does indirectly call for putting a halt to the process of global integration of economy. It warns that protectionism would grow. In reality, it wants that more protectionist measures were taken because it finds it difficult to maintain the level of rupee against the US dollar, which has been depreciating since 2006.

But, it has its impact on the growing trade deficit as exports have become expensive in dollar terms. It is also affecting the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector, wherein real income has come down. It has translated into lower pay packets and near closure of many smaller BPO units. Even manufacturing units are not functioning to their capacity owing to a fall in demand by the inflation-affected populace.

The situation is likely to turn more grim as the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts a slowdown in global GDP to 3.7 per cent in 2008 from 4.9 per cent in 2007. It says food price inflation would remain a key risk to global stability.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation’s (FAO) global food price index, which rose by 40 per cent to the highest level on record, has continued to increase in the first quarter of 2008, as world food stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in 25 years. In the global food grains market, prices of major crops such as corn, soyabean and wheat have increased by 58.2 per cent, 86.3 per cent and 56.5 per cent respectively by April 25, 2008 from a year ago in response to surging demand.

Since agriculture has been ignored since 1991 and food production has fallen in India, there is little relief in sight. This coupled with global credit scenario, even Indian banks are affected. .

In a scenario like this, it is unlikely that there would be any relief from the pressures the economy is suffering. At the national level, the lack of political will to deal with the situation is complicating the process. Indian growth is likely to be skewed, if not stymied. Disparity is increasing. Whether the neo-rich are on firm footing the coming few years would tell that.

The architecture of growth is not inclusive and unless that is done, piecemeal growth would not solve the problems. There is the issue of how to disintegrate the economy from global pressures without severing ties with the world economy.

The RBI only sees decelerating impulses and possibilities of prolonged global turmoil. It sums up, "On the domestic front, the outlook remained positive up to January 2008. Since then, the prospects for growth in the year ahead have been trimmed as risks to inflation and inflation expectations from the upside pressures due to international food, crude and metal prices have become more potent and real than before".

Presently, the scenario is seen as grim and little relief is predicted for the common man. Stagflation or not, it is definitely not the best time for Indian economy. The worrisome question is where the slide would lead to and when would it come to a stop. --INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 28 June 2008

Namaste London

IT’S BALLE BALLE FOR INDIANS

By Poonam I Kaushish

The Empire strikes back. A second week into London and India continues to be the flavour of the season. With high profile visits, India-Pakistan summits, cultural pot pourie et al. If at one end there is the ICCR President and Rajya Sabha MP Dr Karan Singh lecturing on remembering Nehru and MPs and intellectuals pontificating on India-Pakistan walking the peace road, on the other there are Bollywood stars and directors razzmatazzing the Indians on Oxford Street.

The Indian High Commission continues to be the nerve centre of Indo-UK relations and the Nehru Centre, the cultural interface between the UK and India, has quietly but steadily found its own mark and made inroads into the way Brits look at India. It reaches out to the Indian community and the UK intelligentsia in equal measure. Set up in 1992, it showcases the best of India’s diverse culture, the many facets of performing arts---- dance, music, poetry, paintings,  plays, talks and  inter-faith festivals.

The institution has been lucky to have since its inception an inspired intellectual leadership. Just as Girish Karnad built upon the foundations laid by Gopal Gandhi as its founder Director, the first-ever woman Director of the Centre, Monika Mohta has studiously built upon the multi-faceted personality of the Centre.

Whether you walk into the parlours of haute couture or into addas of British intelligentsia mixing their seekh kababs and chicken tikkas with Cobra beer, India is omnipresent in cultural London. On a given evening, I had the choice of attending a recital of sarod maestro Amjad Ali in the City of London Festival, attending a gala dinner at the Lords for the victorious World Cup India cricket team of 1983, rubbing shoulders with Indian financial elite at the Duetsche Bank party or listening to Bollywood director Karan Johar in conversation. Monika tells me this is a predicament she faces every alternate evening. The soft power of Indian diplomacy has bloomed and is here to stay.

Monika asserts: “There are many commonalities between the British and Indian ways of life, from a taste for good Darjeeling tea to a passion for 20/20 cricket. The spectrum also includes new and emerging areas like contemporary Indian art, Sufi music, cinema and architecture. There are new dimensions unfolding everyday crying out for attention and support. Within its limitations, the Nehru Centre seeks to support each in whatever measure it can. What is heartening is that not only the financial and intellectual elite of India travel to London to support the Centre’s efforts the local Indian community too has warmed up to help the Centre in expanding its reach. Nothing you do is enough!”  Further, the Centre, under its dynamic Director has a strategic partnership with the Royal Academy of Performing Arts, British Library and the Victoria and Albert Museum.

Call it sweet irony or double revenge, but as the sun set on the British Empire in India it led to the sunrise of the ‘Indian Empire’ in UK. True, the British left many an imprint on India – we follow its parliamentary form of democracy, our Parliament is based on the Westminster model, our bureaucracy, our legal framework, police system, Criminal Procedure Code etc follow the British model. But, in spite of all this, the British failed to leave a mark of nobility. Worse, they treated India as a colony unlike other invaders like the Mughals, who made the country their home.

In sharp contrast, the Indians in Britain are making their mark of brilliance, dedication, loyalty and integrity. They have virtually taken over the remnants of what was once the Great Empire. Rich Indians are swarming all over. There are over 25 Indian Lords and Baroness’ in the House of Lords. The Chairman of the Liberal Democrats is an Indian, Lord Dholakia, and Lord Bagri heads the London Metal Exchange. Beer magnate Karan Billimoria, an Indian heads the Indo-UK Round Table and Baroness Sterite Vadera is a Minister in Gordon Brown’s Cabinet. Succinctly asserts Lord Bagri: “If the UK is my karma bhoomi then, India is my punia bhoomi.”

The British love Indian food, music and clothes. No wonder that the desi curry and the bhangra rap is the joy de verve of London. Most Indian restaurants enjoy top ranking as bhangra blares out of top night clubs, which charge over £ 100 as entry fee. What to speak of the British queuing up to see the latest Bollywood offer. Hindi movies now are simultaneously released in London and Delhi.

That apart, London is abuzz. Post Tata takeover of Corus and Jaguar, the Indians are revered as ‘top guns’. Not surprisingly, all the major private sector multi-national institutions are headed by Indians. Top Scottish liquor brands are now Indian, owned by Vijay Mallya. The most sought after invites are to parties, which have a mix of Indian and British movers and shakers.

And yet, what endures Indians to Britons and vice versa is a shared belief in Parliamentary democracy being an effective system of governance. It is not for nothing that it will take a long time for Raisina Hill to hold a candle to Westminster. Architecturally, both Houses of Parliaments maybe formidable institutions, and inspire the multitudes, but the distinction between what happens inside is not difficult to notice. The Parliamentary discourse in Westminster is in tune with what is happening across the country and indeed the world on a daily basis. And its quality compels the Government to try and stay on the right side of public opinion.

Nothing needs to be written or said about what happens in our Parliament. Except that sitting in London, I wish that little cries for help from disadvantaged children in Orissa or Assam, farmers suicides in Vidarbha and Karnataka, religious riots in J&K, or water-logging in Delhi could inspire a meaningful discourse, capable of compelling the Government into action beyond cyclostyling and photocopying of ‘unstarred questions’ to be doled out as Press releases to journalists and motivated propaganda machines.

When I think of Westminster, some famous understatements come to mind. Over a century ago, when Warren Hastings was being tried in the fabled Westminster Hall for the plunder of Bengal, his defence was both audacious and simple. He told the Lord Chancellor that, “if only Your Lordship had the occasion to personally see the wealth of Bengal, you would have realised that whatever little I took away was extreme moderation.” Or when Churchill, the little master of monumental insults, who was pulled up by the Speaker of the Commons for describing, “half the House being full of fools.” Suitably reprimanded, he rose to apologise. “Lord Speaker,” confessed he, “half the House is not full of fools!”  On the other hand, not a day passes in our Lok Sabha without below the belt abuses, smirks et al.

As my heart seeks to soak in as much of the British and Indian flavour in London, a strange yearning seeps deep in my veins for home and Delhi’s monsoon. At the foot of the fountain in Trafalgar Square, I spot scores of Sikhs breaking into bhangra towards the fag end of a concert organised by Cherie Blair in aid of Indian widows. Since the policies of the UPA Government continue to contribute to farmers’ suicide, I am sure there will be more occasions for the Punjabi and Gujarati communities in London to organise charity concerts for these widows. Clearly, Britain’s heart beats for India! ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Allianc)