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Economic Highlights
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POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER, By Inder Jit, 30 November 2023 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 30 November 2023
POLL PROSPECTS AND THE INDIAN VOTER
By
Inder Jit
(Released
on 24 October 1989)
India’s electorate seems to have come of age, judging by
the general atmosphere. The surprise announcement of the Lok Sabha poll did
cause considerable excitement. So did the added decision to hold simultaneous
Assembly polls in U.P., Karnataka and some other States. Nevertheless, life has
continued to flow at its normal pace. There is no sign yet of any wave, big or
small. Rival party conclaves have met to finalize their respective manifestoes
and decide on candidates, but without any noticeable fervour outside. No one
eagerly waited for the party manifestoes. The interest in the tickets remained
limited to the aspirants, their families and friends. This is how it should be
in any mature system. Parliamentary democracy provides for day to day struggle
for power and continuous education. Every sitting of Parliament helps people to
know and judge the rulers as well as the Opposition. Ultimately, voters go
mainly by broad impression.
Both the Congress-I and the Opposition speak confidently of
success. Appropriately, Mr Rajiv Gandhi, like Indira Gandhi, prefers not to
speak in terms of numbers. However, those around him talk stridently of bagging
at least 300 to 325 seats out of the total of 528 seats, excluding 14 of Assam.
The Centre’s Intelligence Bureau is said to have made two assessments in recent
weeks in keeping with a practice started during Indira Gandhi’s time. The first
is said to have given the Congress-I 350 seats and the second 325. But
experienced non-Congress-I politicians reject the assessment out of hand
asserting: “Remember, the IB cocksurely told Indira Gandhi in 1977 that she
would win hands down!” Mr V.P. Singh, too, prefers not to join the guessing
game of numbers. However, Mr Devi Lal assuredly predicted a landslide in favour
of the Opposition. He told me: “We will repeat Haryana all over India. We will
win 450 seats!”
At least, one knowledgeable Congressman agrees with the
Chaudhuri. We should know. He had the privilege of working as a trusted aide of
Indira Gandhi for many years. Three weeks ago, he gave the Congress-I 150
seats. Last week, however, he told me in Parliament’s Central Hall: “Now it
will be no more than 111 seats. Take Bihar. I give the Congress-I 5 seats out
of 54 below the Ganga and 5 seats above. I am unable to pick even 20 sure seats
for the Congress-I in U.P. out of a total of 85.” Importantly, two senior Bihar
Congressmen present did not disagree. Could I identify him? “Not yet,” he said.
“Let us first see who are the candidates.” Another shrewd Congress-I leader
seemed to agree on the crucial importance of the candidates. He told me: “The
Congress-I and the Opposition presently enjoy 35 per cent support each. Thirty
per cent is the floating vote. They will make up their minds only on the basis of
the candidates - and the prevailing hawa.”
A few factors, however, seem to be clear. Broadly, the
Opposition continues to be Mr Rajiv Gandhi’s best friend, just as Mr Rajiv
Gandhi has become the Opposition’s best bet. The National Front today is more united
than a month ago. However, it does not still inspire full confidence of the
people as a credible alternative to the Congress-I. Even the vast number who
feel that Mr V.P. Singh can give India a clean and efficient Government are not
sure if he would be allowed to become Prime Minister by rival aspirants even if
the National Front was to get a majority. Mr Gandhi, for his part, has greatly
undermined his own credibility not only by the Bofors scandal but also by what
are widely described as his “many failures”, especially the recent spurt in
prices. This is important in the context of one basic fact of electoral life.
Negative votes are crucial. Governments are voted out. The Opposition is seldom
voted in.
Mr Gandhi may, however, be said to have done well by
himself by the surprise poll timing, which appeared momentarily to have caught
the Opposition on the wrong foot. In one stroke, he has re-established his
democratic credentials in the face of persistent talk that he would manipulate
to somehow get the poll put off for a year through the imposition of Emergency,
even if this involved a “limited scrap” with Pakistan in Punjab or Kashmir. He
has also scotched rumours that he would first topple the Devi Lal Government in
Haryana. Simultaneously, Mr Gandhi has impressed many with his little-known
capacity to play politics like his mother and fully exploit both the Panchayati
Raj and Nagarpalika bills as also their defeat at the hands of the Opposition.
Not only that. Many had expected him to delay the poll because of more
revelations in the Bofors scandal. He has now projected an image of courage by
choosing to face the people earlier than he need have.
Much will eventually depend upon two things. First, the
ability of the Opposition to come together and ensure a one-to-one contest
through formal or informal arrangements. Second, the ability of the Congress-I
to ensure effective unity in its ranks. To take the second first. Infighting has
time and again played havoc with the Congress-I in poll battles. It could cause
even greater disaster this year when a question-mark has gone up over Mr Gandhi’s
capacity as a vote-getter. The Prime Minister has, no doubt, tried to keep the
Congress-I united by giving representation to all groups in the State Election
Committees. But this does not mean that these Committees will put their party
before self, choose the best candidate for the poll and work for victory.
Candidly confided one leader: “Why should I do my best. Success will only
strengthen the Chief Minister and the PCC Chief --- and destroy my own
prospects.”
Ten days ago, the chances of the Opposition ensuring
one-to-one contests seemed bleak. But the sudden announcement of the poll has
proved a blessing in disguise, as it did for the Opposition in 1977. It has
forced the Opposition to bury the hatchet speedily and come together to give
the Congress-I straight fight. The CPM has indicated the Left Front’s decision
to join hands with the National Front, notwithstanding the latter’s
arrangements, formal or otherwise, with the BJP. Two weeks ago, the CPM and the
Congress-I seemed to be moving closer following Mr Jyoti Basu’s dinner meeting
with Mr Gandhi and their friendly flight together to Haldia and back. But Mr
Basu has since reiterated that the Congress-I is still the CPM’s Enemy No. 1.
He has, no doubt, stated that the CPM will not share the platform with the BJP.
He has, however, clarified that it has no objection if the Janata Dal has seat
adjustments with the BJP.
Speculation continues about the Muslim vote, especially in
U.P. and Bihar where it has considerable clout in almost half their total seats
-- 85 plus 54. Initially, the Muslims were said to be wholly anti-Congress-I in
view of ‘anti-Muslim’ riots. But they are said to have started having second
thoughts when the Janata Dal joined hands with the BJP, despite Communist
protests. They were thereafter seen to be largely back in the Congress fold
when the BJP reaffirmed its commitment to Hindu Rashtra --- and Mr L.K. Advani
was seen performing Ram Shila Poojan. The strong secular stance taken by Mr
V.P. Singh, Mr Devi Lal and others against politicising the Ram Janmabhoomi
issue is said to have largely restored the original position -- anti-Congress-I
and pro-Janata. Truth perhaps lies somewhere between the rival claims which
slur over one fact. The Muslims do not necessarily operate as vote banks.
In the final analysis, the vast
majority of Indian voters can be counted upon to act maturely. They may not be
highly educated and well-versed in modern idiom. But they have their two feet
firmly on the ground and can differentiate between right and wrong, good and
evil. They cannot be misled by gimmickry, frame-ups and brazen official
propaganda on AIR and Doordarshan. In fact, all that has been sought to be put across has
been more than neutralised by the weekly episode of the Mahabharat and lately
of the Vishwamitra serial. These have refreshed and re-educated the masses in
India’s great tradition and values of satya
and asatya and the basic obligations
of a good ruler. Every episode in recent weeks has come to be related willy
nilly to present-day India and the crisis of values. The Nehru Centenary
celebrations, too, have helped to crystallise the issues. Our people will
surely give their verdict loud and clear. --- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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Politics of Populism: STATES BURDENED, LOWIMPACT, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 29 November 2023 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 29 November 2023
Politics
of Populism
STATES
BURDENED, LOWIMPACT
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
With the state elections coming
to an end this year, the spate of schemes and promises announced in the run-up
to these polls by both the Congress and the BJP reveal that the political
discourse is getting increasingly populist. From cash transfers to cheaper
cooking gas cylinders to higher support prices for farm products, are all meant
to woo the voters from the lower income groups and economically weaker
sections. This should particularly be viewed in the backdrop of a recent
World Bank study in the context of South Asia which notes that the primary
deficit, on an average, tends to widen by 0.5 per cent of GDP around national
elections.
It was indeed interesting to
see the two major political parties vying with each other with one scheme after
another in their manifestos released in the different states. However, the
impact of these electoral promises is neither considered nor how much
additional resource the states would be able to generate in the immediate
fiscal outgo.
At the same time, the reverting,
or the promise to revert to the old pension scheme (OPS) entails a fiscal
burden on states by as much as 4.5 times the National Pension System with the
annual addition burden increasing by 0.9 per cent of GDP. Moreover, this
decision will mostly help the middle class, which will have extra money to
spend on consumer items. Economists are of the opinion that this may result in
inefficient government spending, hurting the very section that actually needs
support.
Considering the high levels of
populist spending, the issue gains credence as the country’s public debt and
general government budget deficits are increasing. In the current fiscal, the
target to contain the fiscal deficit at 5.9 per cent of GDP may not be met and
even this target is quite high and needs to be brought down. Though schemes for
the poor are no doubt welcome, there is a definite need for some amount of
fiscal discipline, both by the Centre and the states with even unanimity
amongst left-wing economists.
The high debts of some state
governments are definitely not healthy as a major chunk of the state’s income
goes towards payment of interest, thereby severely curtailing development
expenditure. And it is these states whose per capita income is below the
national average. In such a scenario, it is necessary that the 16th
Finance Commission, which is to be constituted shortly, should be entrusted the
task of making a comprehensive assessment of subsidies and other payouts. It
may choose an appropriate definition of merit and non-merit subsidies and
calculate the total outgo along with the opportunity
cost.
Though one cannot deny the need
for providing welfare measures, these must reach only the poor and the
economically weaker sections. Moreover, it has to be ensured that the existing
schemes are well-funded, and the real beneficiaries are identified and get the
benefits, and not those who are close to the ruling party, as has happened in
many states, particularly in West Bengal. The few rural economists agree that
the conditions of the rural poor in most states, specially in the northern and
eastern regions, have not improved significantly.
When the rural economy needs a
thrust, the funds provided for the MGNREGA programme is not sufficient to
provide employment for more than 35-40 days when the scheme talks of 100 days
assured employment. Not just employment but the labour force can take up
projects that would help in infrastructural development of villages. While new projects
are being announced to woo voters, the present ones that could actually
help the lower segments of society are suffering due to lack of funds.
If the question of employment
is considered, statistics reveal that there is virtually no increase in formal
sector jobs. As per recent statistics, there has been a slowdown in the pace of
formal job creation in the June-September period as new subscribers added to
the Employees’ Provident Fund declined by over 10 per cent. Recently, the
annual periodic labour force survey (PLFS) showed that the unemployment rate
dropped to a six-year low of 3.2 per cent in July-June from 4.1 per cent 2023. Plus,
the data showed an increase in the share of people engaged in agriculture and a
fall among those engaged in manufacturing. The decline in formal employment and
the corresponding increase in labour force participation clearly point to the
fact that most new entrants to the job market have no option but to be
satisfied with low-paid work in the informal sector.
The economic situation of most
states is in a deplorable condition. There is no possibility of things
improving in the near future, even if there is some shift from agriculture to
industry. The new situation of industrial development does not warrant jobs or
even development of backward areas as most manufacturing units are set up in
industrial belts or in fairly developed areas within the state. Moreover,
mechanised means of operation require less labour and only the skilled workers
get the opportunity.
One is constrained to refer to
the recently released 2024 Asia-Pacific Human Development Report titled ‘Making
our Future: New Directions for Human Development in Asia and the Pacific’, which
states that though per capita income in India, between 2000 and 2022, soared
from $442 to $2,389, it does not reflect the incomes of the rural
population. Again, though between 2015-16 and 2019-21, the share of the
population living in multi-dimensional poverty fell from 25 to 15 per cent, if
the total population increase is taken into consideration, this figure would
not be spectacular at all. The economic distress is well manifest but even then
the government is not looking at a comprehensive strategy to improve the
incomes of the rural poor.
Significantly, the report aptly
refers to three new directions in human development, which is very much
applicable in India’s context. These are to put people at the heart of
development, to recalibrate growth strategies to generate more jobs and respect
the environment, and to focus relentlessly on the politics of reform and the
science of delivery to turn ideas into practice. How much of these are being
followed is a big question, but it is necessary for India to follow these
principles through action for a better future. However, this would involve
change in its planning and development approach.
Whether the country would
seriously take cognisance of the report and within what timeframe remains to be
seen. Genuine welfare schemes that go towards improving the conditions of the
impoverished and backward sections is necessary at this juncture apart from
measures of ensuring income support. Not just the Centre, but the political
leadership of the states too must be serious in the matter of both resource
generation and expenditure, keeping in view how maximum numbers of people could
get the desired benefits. A knee-jerk reaction during elections is not an
alternative.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Toothless EC, Netas Merry: TIME TO TAKE ACTION By Poonam I Kaushish, 28 November 2023 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 28 November 2023
Toothless EC, Netas Merry
TIME TO TAKE ACTION
By Poonam I Kaushish
In this theekha-masaledar
just concluded electioneering season our netagan
are reveling in neechi and tuch under-the-belt vitriolic language,
putrid entertainment swaying to the heady tinkle of money, cheap thrills and seetees. In the hope this will bring
them political tripti!
Welcome State Elections 2023 wherein
immorality and perversion of political discourse were flavour of the season.
From desh bhakts to desh drohis. The
ball was set rolling by Prime Minister Modi who called Congress’s Rahul “moorkhon ke sardar” who countered with “PM matlab Panauti Modi aur jebkatra.” Congress
President Kharge added his two bit worth, “PM
ka baap betha unhe bhi jhoot.” Shot back Home Minister Shah, “Gandhi family
is Rahu-Ketu of India…Rahul-Priyanka
have their roots in Italy.”
AAP’s Kejriwal took it one step
further by posting on X a satirical narration of Modi misusing ED to favour
Adani and his photo superimposed on Adani’s stating, “I work not for people,
but master,” earning an EC notice. AIMM Owaisi took the cake, “Koi maee ka lal pedha nahi hua jo mujhe rok
sake…Modi RSS ka peelu hai…. ishara
kar diya toh dorana padhega.”
Frankly, I am not surprised as our netagan are only showing their girgit true colours throwing all decency
and decorum to the winds! Gone are days when jibes and trolls were funny or
sarcastic and leaders took them in
their strides. Bringing things to such a pass we are accustomed to sleazy tu-tu-mein-mein between opponents, of
dirty linen being increasingly washed in public. More vulgar the better, dil maange more!
Obviously, the blame lies squarely
with Parties whereby the Election Commission’s (EC) Model Code of Conduct (MCC)
has become the most potent missile in the arsenal of political rivals and jaani dushmans. With none caring a damn
for its seven Dos and Don’ts about general conduct, meetings, processions,
polling day, polling booth observers and Party in power.
Quick to complain, all shy from
demanding the same discipline for crude and repulsive swipes at rivals. Barring
a warning or ban on electioneering for two-three days, the EC’s action against
hate speeches totals a mere rap on the knuckles. After all, how would their art
of double-speak succeed if preachers of morality were to start practicing it?
Polls mean scoring brownie points against rivals, forget EC reading the riot
act under MCC. Ends matter not the means.
Culprits? All Parties even as a
helpless EC only expresses its “displeasure” and sends a show cause notice to
Rahul on his language as it falls in the equity of the prohibition of Section
123 RPA dealing with corrupt practices. Clause 2, sub section (ii) states any
person who induces or attempts to induce a candidate or elector to believe he
or any person in whom he is interested
will become or will be rendered an object of divine displeasure or spiritual
censure, shall be deemed to interfere with the free exercise of electoral right
of a candidate or elector.
To Kejriwal it averred, the spirit
of MCC is not only avoidance of direct violation but also prohibits attempts to
vitiate electoral space through innuendoes which harm public tranquility. It merely
asked AAP to explain its action. Sic.
Questionably, why shouldn’t there be
immediate action, considering there is no point acting against complaints post
polls? Moreover, going by the low conviction rate, are MCC cases purely
symbolic? Would cases stemming from such FIRs gain more strength if the Code
was legal? Would it justify giving statutory status to all MCC stipulations as
suggested by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Personnel, Public
Grievances, Law and Justice in 2013?
Experts aver the model code purely
hinges on morality, not fear of law. Since poll campaigns are turning uglier,
more personal and combative, the moral obligation entailed in MCC could really
bear down heavily on candidates at a time when they are trying to show voters how
upright and competent they are for the job.
Also, many leaders favour making MCC
legally tenable as it clears them of morality during elections. When the EC
issues show cause notice to a candidate, he has to respond within 48 hours.
This is a deterrent unlike a case against a candidate in court which might
linger, giving him benefit of doubt. Also, this prevents one from seeing the
Code as only voluntary, a reason why the 2013 Parliamentary Standing Committee
suggested the remaining stipulations be accorded statutory backing.
Alas, it is not this election alone,
the story is the same every election wherein EC is grappling with the same
questions. And by the time it arrives at an answer, votes have been cast. So
what happens to violations of the MCC? Zilch. They die a natural death.
Sadly, the truth is that MCC is only
a voluntary compact arrived between EC and Parties and has no statutory
binding. With Parties and candidates wantonly violating it, EC is powerless.
Asserted a senior official, “The Code lacks legal sanction and is intended to
work as a moral policeman to ensure free and fair elections. We can only freeze
a Party’s election symbol or derecognize it as a national Party. Nothing more,
nothing less.” Bluntly, one can merrily violate MCC wantonly and yet get
elected to Lok Sabha and Assemblies.
Clearly, the time has come to take a
good fresh look at the Code of Conduct and recast it. Importantly, there is
urgent need to convert it into a law with EC having power to take punitive
actions.
Confessed another EC official, “Even
as EC is lauded for the remarkable way it conducts polls, that too without many
complaints of rigging or other poll irregularities, we are hamstrung vis-à-vis MCC. Presently our power is restricted to poll
violations by Parties and cannot always be used. The Commission cannot withdraw
the symbol every time.
“On individual candidates who
violate the Code, EC could think of imposition of monetary penalty, disqualification
and in extreme case countermand the election. Unacceptable behaviour by our polity
should be adversely publicized and Government and Parties should publicly
reprimand their candidate. But first we have to give more teeth to EC.
Notwithstanding, that MCC might never become law as there are too many
political interests aligned against it.”
It is simply stupid to lament about
falling standards of morality in politics in these bad times. At the end of the
day, it matters little who wins elections as we the people are the ultimate
losers. As the system, Government, politicians and politics, everything is game
to deprive the aam janata of a better
life.
As India votes we must not allow
ourselves to be taken for granted any more. We must demand statements which are
unwarranted and unhealthy for our democracy not be used along-with insisting electoral
reforms be implemented soon to make our democracy truly representative. Stop
voting for shameless, self-serving netas who
put a premium on immorality. It is high time the EC steps in and takes action.
Or will it allow licentiousness to be
the bedrock of India’s democracy? Can a nation be bare and bereft of all sense
of morality? And, for how long? Think. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News
& Feature Alliance)
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Is Humanity under attack from AI?, By Rajiv Gupta, 26 November 2023 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 26 November 2023
Is Humanity under attack from
AI?
By Rajiv Gupta
If you are not inundated with articles on Artificial
Intelligence (AI), you have probably been living under a rock. Several of these
articles raise images of a dystopian future based on machines taking over
mankind. If you are sufficiently apprehensive about the future awaiting
mankind, let me try to offer my analysis of what AI is and is not, and how it
might shape our world in the foreseeable future.
AI is not a recent phenomenon, although it has assumed
greater currency of late in terms of specific hardware and software such as
ChatGPT. The term was first coined in 1956 by John McCarthy, a computer
scientist at Stanford University. He defined it as “the science and engineering
of making intelligent machines.” Since then, several scientists and engineers
have worked in this area and we have seen many periods of hectic activity as
well as dry spells due to lack of funding for research.
The other term I wish to briefly
introduce is the Turing test, named after Alan Turing, who postulated that if a
machine can engage in a conversation with a human without being detected as a
machine, it has demonstrated human intelligence. The development of devices like
Alexa and software such as ChatGPT are probably a result of researchers trying
to meet the criteria for the Turing test.
First, a little understanding of AI is in order. AI,
in its current avatar, is nothing more than sophisticated pattern recognition. The
programs look for patterns in consumer behaviour, in speech, in text, in
photographs, in medical diagnostic scans, etc. The software is “trained” to
recognise patterns using a very large database of words, pictures, numbers, and
scans. For example, if a customer tends to purchase certain products from a
retail outlet on a regular basis, AI will be able to detect this purchasing
pattern and the customer can be sent customize mailings/ads that match his/her
preferences. When it comes to facial recognition, the picture is divided into a
number of dots or pixels. The software analyses the pixels to determine patterns
which give information about facial features. Then the software would compare
the pattern it has been trained on with the pattern on a photograph to
determine if the two photographs are of the same individual.
The accuracy, or correctness of the answers developed
by AI is dependent on the data used to train it. Training is done by feeding a
large amount of data into the software, then letting the software answer the
question that is being asked. By providing human feedback regarding the accuracy
of the answer, the software gets “trained” so that it can improve its ability
to decipher the pattern on its next attempt. There is ample evidence of AI
making mistakes due to gaps and shortcomings in the data used in the training.
These mistakes have occurred in facial recognition in the US where the program
has incorrectly identified an individual as a suspect in a crime not committed
by him/her. There are several examples of AI programs showing clear bias based
on race, gender, age, etc. when the database used to train the software has
been deficient or biased.
Irrespective of the sophistication of the software,
none of them are 100 % reliable. Some people may say that neither are humans. There
are two major dangers in letting a software make decisions. First, most AI
software is like a black box. It is not possible to question the logic used by
the program. This does not allow us to have an audit trail. Second, people
place very great faith in output from software and do not question it, assuming
that computers cannot make mistakes like humans. But as I have mentioned, there
have been several instances where AI has made an error. It would be incorrect
to completely hand over the responsibility of an entire human task to a
computer program, especially when we are not sure of the reliability of the
program. If the error results in a wrong conviction of a person, the
consequences are huge from a human perspective.
What we can, and probably should do, is to automate
the repetitive component of the human task. This would free the human to add
greater value by providing inputs that computers cannot. A good example of this
is the use of auto pilot in airplanes. The longest, and the most boring part of
flying an aircraft is when it is flying at its cruising altitude. It is the
take-off and landing that requires the expertise of a human pilot. Therefore, a
plane can be put on auto pilot at cruising altitude as constant attention by
the pilot is not needed. But we do not eliminate the pilot. We let the auto
pilot relieve the stress in a long-haul flight. The pilot can override the auto
pilot if the situation demands it.
Any technological development has led
to reduction in human labour. Whether it was the steam engine, the tractor, the
automobile, or even the computer. Each innovation has resulted in the
elimination of the drudgery of repetitive human tasks, whether physical, or
mental. In 1870, agricultural workers comprised half of all workers in the US; in
1900, about one-third of all workers; and in 1950, less than a fifth of all workers.
Today the number of agricultural workers is around one percent of all workers.
The reason for this reduction is an increase in mechanisation and farm sizes
over this period.
The question that ought to be asked is
not whether technology displaced people; it certainly did. Rather we should be
asking whether people would like to do the work being done by machines today
for what consumers would be willing to pay for it. The answer, arguably, would
be a no.Similar scenarios have been observed in non-physical work situations
such as calculating, accounting, etc. where computers have effectively replaced
humans, and rightly so. How many people today would enjoy adding numbers all
day long?
There are several human jobs that are ripe for
automation. One of the most denigrating and dangerous jobs in India is that of
manual scavenging. Would an AI powered solution not be a great way to eliminate
the risk of death that manual scavengers face today. There can be many other
such jobs which should not be done by humans. The rule that Japanese companies,
such as Toyota, use is if a task is dirty, difficult, or dangerous, it is a
good candidate for automation. To this list we can also add boring and
repetitive, with no value added.
In conclusion, I feel that both the hype and the fear
attributed to AI is overdone. If the test of AI is that it should be able to
mimic a human, we need to remember that humans can make mistakes and computers
cannot. At the same time humans can find an opportunity in failure or mistake,
such as the discovery of penicillin. A computer cannot do that because it has
to be told what to look for. Ultimately, humans decide what AI should be used
for, not the other way around. Let us do this judiciously.---INFA
(Copyright, India News &
Feature Alliance)
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Rajasthan Polling: END TO BITTER CAMPIAGNING, By Insaf, 25 November 2023 |
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Round The States
New Delhi, 25 November
2023
Rajasthan Polling
END TO BITTER CAMPIAGNING
By Insaf
Rajasthan goes to the polls today.
The campaigning has been rough and tough and while pollsters would give thumbs
up to ruling Congress, the State appears to be in a neck-to-neck contest
between grand old party and BJP. Gehlot government has gone all to woo the
voters with welfare schemes and the party’s 7 guarantees, including Rs 10,000
per year to female head of family, cow dung at Rs 2 kg, free laptops and
tablets to first-year government college students, et al. The BJP too follows
in similar footsteps but its guarantees centre around Prime Minister Modi.
Besides, its Hindutva strategy is given sharp focus, as its star campaigner
started his campaign from a Hanuman temple. The bitter campaigning has got the
Election Commission stepping in. On Thursday last, it issued a show-cause
notice to Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his panauti, ‘pickpocket’ and ‘loan
waiver for the super-rich’ jibes at Modi, saying the MCC prohibits leaders from
making ‘unverified allegations against political rivals.’ Additionally, its
issued two show-cause notices to Congress over two advertisements -- one
claiming a wave in its favour and another asking people to give missed calls to
avail benefits of its poll promises. These ‘fail to adhere to the standards
expected from a national party’, is the BJP’s complaint. The Congress may cry
hoarse or see it as its rival truly worried, but the results will show which
guarantees eventually worked.
* * * *
Governors ‘Playing With Fire’
Governors need to tread cautiously; they are only titular
heads and real power rests with people’s representatives. The firm message
comes from the country’s top court. In a 27-page judgement uploaded on Thursday
last, the Supreme Court asked Punjab Governor Banwarilal Purohit to ‘now
proceed to take a decision on the Bills’ submitted for assent during Assembly’s
sittings on 19, 20 June 2023 and 20 October 2023, as these were
‘constitutionally valid’. Earlier, during course of hearing, the court had said
the governor was “playing with fire” as it held that being the titular head of
the state the Governor can’t cast doubt on the validity of an assembly session
or withhold his decision indefinitely on bills passed by the House. Any such
attempt, it said ‘would be replete with grave perils to democracy.’ In a
Parliamentary form of democracy, the real power vests with MLAs and MPs and
“Members of government are accountable to and subject to scrutiny by the
legislature. The Governor as President’s appointee is the titular head of
State.” Importantly, the Speaker is recognised to be a guardian of the House
privileges and constitutionally recognised authority who represents the House;
the Governor, as an unelected Head of State, is entrusted with certain
constitutional powers. “However, this power can’t be used to thwart the normal
course of lawmaking by state legislatures.” Big not just for AAP government,
but other State governments which have been in a running battle with their
respective Raj Bhavan. Remember the idiom-- discretion is the better part of valour.
* * * *
Set Up Delimitation Commission
Disproportionate representation of tribal communities in
Sikkim and West Bengal assemblies should go a long way to get sections of SCs
and STs justice across the country. Hearing a petition of NGO, Public Interest
Committee for Scheduling Specific Areas, contending the Limbu and Tamang
communities (STs), were denied a proportionate representation in these States,
the Supreme Court on Thursday last, directed Centre to set up a fresh
delimitation commission for ensuring a proportional representation of the
communities specified as SCs and STs, as mandated under Constitution. However,
it clarified it can’t direct Parliament to amend or make laws for giving proper
representation to other communities that form part of the STs as this would
amount to “venturing into legislative domain”. Additional seats, it said must
be made available in Bengal for the STs to accommodate ‘principle of
proportional representation.” The plea claimed Limbu and Tamang communities’
population in Sikkim had risen to 33.8% in 2011 from 20.6% in 2001 and in
Darjeeling, West Bengal, ST population rose to 21.5% in 2011 from 12.69% in
2001. Importantly, the court was clear its verdict ‘shall not be read to
interfere’ with Parliament or assemblies’ polls ‘since elections are an
overarching mandate and these have to be carried out on time’. All that can be
said is that once the process starts, ‘benefit (of reservation) has to be given
across the country,’ as demands from various states pending. So, while the
exercise must be on the agenda, a deadline is missing!
* * * *
Adamant Bihar
Bihar is pulling out all the stops to get what has been
demanding. On Wednesday last, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar upped the ante on the
long-standing demand for grant of special status to the state by getting the
Cabinet to pass such a resolution. In a post he said the Centre has been
requested for the same as it ‘was necessitated by findings of the caste survey
his government carried out.’ Importantly, while the rise in percentage of
population of the deprived castes has led to increase in the quotas for SCs,
STs and OBCs from 50 to 65%, he said his government planned to undertake
several welfare measures for the benefit of “94 lakh families”, which lived in
abject poverty. Recall, the demand for
special status has been pending “since 2010”.
At same time, he has urged the Centre to incorporate the hiked
reservation for deprived castes from 50 to 65% in state government jobs and
educational institutions in Constitution’s 9th Schedule, so it’s guaranteed
immunity from legal scrutiny. Nitish has also been saying that if INDIA bloc
forms the next government at the Centre, he would press for “special status to
all backward states”. Clearly, there’s more than meets the eye.
* * * *
Support For Palestine
God’s own country may bring some cheer to the war-ravaged
Palestinians. A mass solidarity rally was organised by the Congress PCC in
Kozhikode on Thursday last, to clear the air: “Palestine solidarity is not a
new thing for the Congress Party. It has been continuing without any change
since Gandhiji and Nehru’s time.” Both AICC General Secretary KC Venugopal and
CWC member Shashi Tharoor were at pains to counter accusations that the grand
old party was silent on the issue due to ongoing Assembly polls and asserted it
condemned Israel’s war on Gaza, its attacks against hospitals and refugee
camps; and hit out at Modi government’s foreign policy, saying India’s
abstention from voting in UNGA against the war, ‘brought disgrace to the entire
nation’. Venugopal even described Modi and his Israel counterpart Netanyahu as
‘the same type’ and accused the Centre of using foreign policy as ‘a PR
exercise to ensure its victory in polls.’ Sadly, the humanitarian side of the
war has got lost in vote bank politics. Domestic issues are being seen to
influence South Block’s pro-Israel shift as it gives a shot in the arm to the
Hindu nationalists. People taking out pro-Palestine rallies in some State have
been briefly detained by the police; the Indian media too has titled reportage.
Guess, Kerala gives some solace.
* * * *
Farewell ‘Judged’
A farewell speech in Allahabad High Court has not just
raised many an eyebrow but could ruffle feathers. On Tuesday last, its retiring
Chief Justice Pritinker Diwaker in his farewell speech alleged his transfer in
2018 from Chhattisgarh HC when the collegium was headed by then CJI Dipak Misra
was done to ‘have been issued with an ill intention to harass me’! He said when
he was elevated to the bench on March 31, 2009, he discharged his duties till
October 2018 “to the satisfaction of one and all, and particularly to my own
inner being.” But “now, a sudden turn of events descended upon me when then CJI
Deepak Misra showered on me some extra affection for reasons still not known to
me which entailed my transfer to Allahabad HC, on October 3, 2018.” However,
‘as fortune would have it,’ he said ‘the bane turned into a boon…’ Besides, he
thanked present CJI Chandrachud, ‘who rectified the injustice done to me,’ and
for being appointed as Acting CJ of Allahabad HC and eventually CJ on March 26,
2023. Interestingly, his remarks come on the heels of a farewell speech by
Justice Bibek Chaudhuri, recently transferred from Calcutta HC to Patna HC. He
said: “I must say that in 1975 during Emergency, 16 judges of different HCs
were transferred by an executive decision in one go. After almost 48 years, 24
judges have been transferred from one High Court to another by the Collegium of
the Honourable Supreme Court in one go.” The big question being whether these
churnings or targeting with the judiciary should be welcomed or not?----INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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